1992_Transportation_High Speed Rail Market Projection Survey Design and Analysis

8/6/2019 1992_Transportation_High Speed Rail Market Projection Survey Design and Analysis

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Transportation 19: 117-139, 19929 1992KluwerAcademic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

H igh speed ra il m arket projection: Su rvey design and an alysisH. E GUNN 1, M. A. BRADLEY2 & D. A. HENSHER31, 2 Hague Consulting Group, Den Haag, The Netherlands; 3 Institute of Transport Studies,The University of Sydney, NSW, AustraliaKey words: high speed rail, survey, demand forecasting, stated preferencesA b s t r a c t . This pape r s um mar i s es w ork don e to a ss es s the m arke t po ten t i a l and l ike ly f inan -c i a l p e r f o r m a n c e o f a p l a n n e d h i g h - s p e e d r a il l in k c o n n e c t i n g S y d n e y , C a n b e r r a a n d M e l b o u r n e ,under a va r i e ty o f s cena r io s conce rn ing the s e rv ices o f f e r ed and the pos s ib le marke t r e s pons eso f the compe t ing t r ans po r t modes in the co r r ido r . I n the A us t r a l i an con tex t , s uch a l ink has thecharac te r i s t i c s o f an e s s en t i a l ly new t r ans po r t mode s ince ex i s t ing r a i l s e rv ices a r e ex t r emelyp o o r l y d e v e l o p e d . T h e e x p e c t a t i o n w a s t h a t g e n e r a t e d d e m a n d c o u l d b e a s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t o ft h e o v e r a l l r i de r s hi p . A p r o g r a m m e o f m a r k e t r e s e a r c h w a s c o m m i s s i o n e d b y t h e p ri v a t e c o n -s o r t ium cons ide r ing the p ro jec t , des igned to s uppor t f o r ecas t ing mo de l s capab le o f p r ed ic t ingb o t h d i v e r t e d a n d g e n e r a t e d t r a v e l o n t h e n e w s e r v i c e . A m a j o r s u r v e y o f c u r r e n t t r a v e l l e r sw a s c o n d u c t e d i n 1 98 8, f o l l o w e d b y a n e x t e n s i v e c o l le c t i o n o f s ta t ed p r e f e r e n c e e v i d e n c e a b o u tt h e f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g t h e t ra v e l d e c i s i o n s o f b o t h e x i s t i n g t r a v e l l e r s a n d th o s e w h o h a d n o tr e c e n t l y m a d e a n y j o u r n e y s i n t h e c o r ri d o r. T h e p a p e r f o c u s e s m a i n l y o n t h e d e s i g n a n d o r g a n -i s a t ion o f the s u rveys , on the ana lys i s app roach , and on the m e thods u s e d to gene ra te fo r ecas t sfo r s imu la ted popu la t ions and s cena r io s .

1 . I n t r o d u c t i o nThe interest in developing new high-speed rail systems has grown substan-tially in recent years as technology becomes available to make the objectivesof such a system feasible. In very general terms, these objectives are toprovide much of the speed and luxury of air travel while also providing thefrequency, reliability and convenience of access and egress which is possiblewith rail travel. A crucial question is whether such a service can be providedat price levels which are attractive to passengers and still provide net revenueswhich are attractive to investors. As service levels, prices, passenger revenuesand operating costs are strongly interdependent, one needs to be able tosimulate the passenger market in order to answer this question. This paperdescribes such a market research study for the proposed VFT (Very FastTrain) system in Australia.

In general terms, two types of information are necessary to predict demandfor a new transport mode:9 A detailed understanding of the travel market without the new alterna-

tive, in terms of:


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118- the d i f f e r e n t sub - m a r ke t s wh ic h a r e r e l e va n t ( in t e r m s o f o r ig in /de s -

t ina t ion , t rave l purpose , e tc . ) ;- t h e n u m b e r o f t ra v e l le r s i n e a c h o f t h e s e s u b - m a r k e t s ;- the t rave l a l te rna t ives ava i lab le to them;- t he i r c r i t e r i a f o r c hoos ing be twe e n those a l t e r na t ive s ; a nd- t h e e x p e c t e d c h a n g e s o v e r ti m e i n t h e s iz e o f t h e s u b - m a r k e t s a n d

the charac te r is t ics of the t rave l a l te rna t ives .9 A m e a ns o f unde r s t a nd ing the c ha nge s in e a c h sub- m a r ke t wh ic h wi l l r e su l t

f r om the in t roduc t ion o f the ne w a l t er na t ive , i n t e r m s o f :- t he d ive r s ion o f t r a ve l l e r s f r om e x i s t ing a l t e r na t ive s ;- t he ge ne r a t ion o f a dd i t iona l t r a ve l le r s r e su l ting f r om im p r ove d t r a ve loppor tun i t i e s ; a nd- the se ns i t iv i ty o f d ive r t e d a nd ge ne r a te d tr a ve l to the c ha r a c te r is t i c s

o f t h e n e w s y s t e m a n d t o e x o g e n o u s f a c t o r s .M o s t t r a v e l s t u d i es t e n d t o f o c u s o n d e v e l o p i n g o n l y o n e o f t h e s e t w o

t y p e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n : e i t h e r th e f i r s t b y m e a n s o f o b s e r v i n g a c t u a l t r a v e lc h o i c e s ( r e v e a l e d p r e fe r e n c e s ) , o r t h e s e c o n d b y m e a n s o f e li c it i n g t r a v e lc ho ic e s und e r hypo the t i c a l s i tua t ions (s t a t e d p r e fe r e nc e s ) . The s tud y de sc r ibe dh e r e w a s r e q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e a ll o f th e t y p e s o f i n f o rm a t i o n l i s te d a b o v e ,a n d t h u s p r o v i d e s a r a t h e r u n i q u e e x a m p l e o f t h e in t e g r a t i o n o f d i f f e r e n tt r a n s p o r t d e m a n d s u r v e y a n d a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s .

Th i s pa pe r i s o r ga n i se d a s f o l lows : S e c t ion 2 p r ov ide s a ba c kgr ound to theV F T s tudy a nd i ts ob je c t ive s . S e c t ion 3 de sc r ibe s the re se a r c h in to the e x i s tingt r a ve l m a r ke t , de s igne d a r ou nd in t e r c e p t su r v e ys o f ca r , a ir , c oa c h a nd r a i lt r a v e l l e r s . S e c t i o n 4 d e s c r i b e s t h e r e s e a r c h r e l a t e d d i r e c t l y t o t h e p r o p o s e dV F T s y s t em , d e s i g n e d a r o u n d f a c e - t o - f a c e s u r v e y s o f b o t h t ra v e ll e rs a n dn o n - t r a v e l l e r s . S e c t i o n 5 d e s c r i b e s h o w t h e i n f o r m a t i o n w a s c o m b i n e d t op r ov ide pa sse nge r a nd r e ve nue f o r e c a s t s ove r t im e . F ina l ly , b r i e f c onc lus ionsa r e g ive n in S e c t ion 6 . I n a ll o f the se se c t ions , t he m a jo r f oc us w i l l be on ther e se a r c h m e thods r a the r tha n on the num e r ic a l r e su l t s . Add i t iona l in f o r m a t ionon the s tudy c a n be f ound in He nshe r e t a l . ( 1989) a nd Gunn e t a l . ( 1990) .

2 . B a c k g r o u n d t o t h e s t u d y

The proposed rail systemT h e V F T ( V e r y F a s t T r a i n ) i s a p r o p o s e d n e w h i g h - s p e e d r a i l s y s t e mc o n n e c t i n g t h e c i t i e s o f S y d n e y , C a n b e r r a a n d M e l b o u r n e i n s o u t h - e a s t e r nAus t r a l i a . I t i s p r opose d tha t t he sys t e m wi l l r e a c h spe e ds o f 350 k i lom e te r sp e r h o u r , c o n n e c t i n g A u s t r a l i a ' s t w o l a r g e s t c i t i e s w i t h a t r a v e l t i m e o f


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120(5) Assembly of a forecasting module, consisting of software designed to

apply these various trip generation and mode choice models in a con-sistent manner, and thereby to deduce passenger demand for the VFTservice.

(6) Production of forecasts using a variety of assumptions about pricing,travel times, and so on, to generate a series of central forecasts forspecified future years and to indicate the sensitivities of these forecaststo variations in key assumptions.

CSI was responsible for the analysis in steps 1 and 2, while HCG wasresponsible for the remaining analysis (steps 3 and 4) and the forecasting (steps5 and 6). These various steps are discussed, along with the necessary datacollection, in the following sections.

3 . R e s e a r c h i n t o t h e e x i s t i n g t r a v e l m a r k e t

D e f i n i t i o n o f t h e V F T c o r r i d o r a n d z o n a l d a t aT h e z o n e s y s t e mThe spatial framework for a study of this type is, of course, the zone systemadopted. In this study, the zone system and the corresponding databases werecreated by the Transport Research Centre. The three considerations of mostimportance in defining the zone system were:- the potential for providing passengers to the VFT,- the availability of demographic and network data, and- the compatibility with other zone-based studies, such as the National

Travel Survey.The main source of demographic data was determined to be the localgovernment areas (LGAs) used in the 1986 census. These areas are also usedfor a number of other studies. As to the relevance of areas to the VFT system,three different levels of aggregation were used:- M e t r o p o l i t a n z o n e s : In Sydney and Melbourne, expected to provide the

majority of passengers, each LGA was defined as a separate zone -giving 44 and 55 zones, respectively.

- O t h e r z o n e s i n t h e c o r r i d o r : For other regions in the VFT corridor, LGAswere aggregated together into areas which, roughly speaking, form catch-ment areas for the proposed VFT stations - with no more than 1 stationin a zone. This gave 3 zones in the Canberra area, 13 in the rest of NewSouth Wales and 15 in the rest of Victoria.

- Z o n e s o u t s i d e t h e c o r r i d o r : The rest of Australia was broken into 7 zones,


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121generally following state boundaries, with the level of aggregationincreasing with distance from the VFT corridor.

The system thus contained a total of 137 different zones.Demograph ic da taIn order to be able to predict changes in the size of the travel market and inthe profile of the travelling population over time, we needed to know the profileof residence and employment in each zone - both for the base year and forall forecast years. Very detailed information was available for the base year(1987), mainly from the Census data. The number of residents and house-holds in each zone could be broken down by age, employment status, incomeand household size. Total employment in each zone could be broken down intovarious types.

For the forecast years (1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010), such detailed predic-tions were often not available. In such cases, more aggregate predictions ofoverall growth rates had to be applied.Leve l o f s ervice da taAlso needed for estimating and applying models of mode choice are zone-to-zone level of service measures for each mode - again for both the baseyear and all forecast years. Levels of service were specified for journeysbetween all zone pairs with at least one "trip end" in the VFT corridor. Theservice measures included linehaul times and costs and access/egress timesand costs for air, train, coach, car, and (for future years) the proposed VFTsystem. These measures were created using three levels of network data:- detailed metropolitan networks for Sydney and Melbourne;- a regional linehaul network for the rest of Australia; and- intra-regional connections to the linehaul network.

A number of different sources were used to compile these networks, includingroad maps and air and public transport fare schedules and timetables.In tercept surveys o f current t ravel lersPurpose o f the surveysExtensive surveys of current trips in the VFT corridor were required for threedifferent purposes:- for expansion, to provide base year origin-destination trip matrices for each

mode and purpose;- for modelling, to estimate the importance of various factors on the mode

choice of travellers for each purpose; and


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122- f o r f o r e c a s t ing , t o p r ov ide a "p r o to typ ic a l " sa m p le o f t r a ve l le r s f o r d i f -

f e r e n t ye a r s a nd sc e na r ios ( se e S e c t ion 5 ) .I n ge ne r a l , t he c r e a t ion o f e xpa nde d t r ip m a t r i c e s wa s the m os t im por ta n t

c o n s i d e r a t i o n f o r s a m p l i n g s t r a t e g y , w h i l e m o d e l l i n g a n d f o r e c a s t i n g i s s u e sw e r e m o r e i m p o r t a n t f o r q u e s t i o n n a i r e d e s i g n .Questionnaire designT h e e m p h a s i s o f t h e i n t e r c e p t s u r v e y w a s t o c o l l e c t o b j e c t i v e d a t a o n t h eo n e - w a y t ri p w h i c h t h e r e s p o n d e n t w a s m a k i n g a t t h a t t i m e - b y c a r, air,c oa c h o r r a i l . F o r e xpa ns ion , t he e s se n t i a l da ta we r e :- Th e o r ig in a nd de s t ina t ion o f the t rip ;- The m a in pu r p ose o f the t r ip ( ou tw a r d a nd r e tu r n ) ; a nd- The s iz e a nd c om pos i t io n o f the t r a ve ll ing pa r ty .F o r m o d e l l in g a n d f o r e c a s t in g p u r p o s e s , a n u m b e r o f a d d i ti o n a l i te m s w e r ea ske d :

- D u r a t i o n o f s t a y a w a y f r o m h o m e ;- T y p e o f a c c o m m o d a t i o n , i f a w a y f r o m h o m e ;- A c c e ss a nd e g r e s s m od e to the t e r m ina l ( fo r a ir, r a il o r c oa c h) ;- Ty pe o f fa re pa id ( for a ir , r a i l or coac h) ;- W ho pa id for the t r ip ( for a ir , r a i l or coac h) ;

- A b i l i ty t o u s e o t h e r m o d e s f o r th e s a m e j o u r n e y ;- P r e se nc e o f s topove r s , c a r a va n o r r oo f lugga ge ( f o r c a r t r ip s ) ;

- Whe the r the t r ip wa s wi th a tou r o r o r ga n i se d pa r ty ;- T h e a n n u al n u m b e r o f tr ip s m a d e b e t w e e n t h at s a m e O - D p a i r;- S o c i o - e c o n o m i c c h a ra c t er i st i cs o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t ( ag e , s e x , o c c u p a t io n ,

dr ivers l icence) ;- S o c i o - e c o n o m i c ch a r a c te r is t ic s o f th e r e s p o n d e n t ' s h o u s e h o l d ( s iz e a n dc o m p o s i t i o n , c a r o w n e r s h i p , i n c o m e ) ; a n d- H o m e a d d r e s s .

T h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e f o r c a r t r a v e l l e r s w a s s o m e w h a t d i f f e r e n t t h a n f o r t h eo t h e r m o d e s . T h i s w a s n e c e s s a r y , a m o n g o t h e r r e a s o n s , b e c a u s e o n l y o n er e s p o n d e n t p e r c a r w a s i n t e r v i ew e d , w h e r e a s e a c h a d u l t p a s s e n g e r w a s i n t er -v i e w e d o n a i r, r ai l a n d c o a c h . F o r a i r t r a v e l, a J a p a n e s e t r a n s la t i o n o f t h eque s t ionna i r e wa s p r e pa r e d .Sampling strategyThe m a in o b je c t ive in sa m p l ing w a s to p r od uc e o r ig in - de s t ina t ion t r ip m a t r i c esw h i c h w e r e a s a c c u r a t e a s p o s s i b l e w i t h i n t h e n u m b e r o f s u r v e y s w h i c hb u d g e t w o u l d a l l o w . T h u s , o n l y t h e m a j o r p o t e n t i a l m a r k e t s w e r e s u r v e y e d :


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123c a r , s c he du le d a i r , s c he du le d c oa c h a nd t r a in jou r ne ys , w i th a t l e a s t one e ndw i th in the V F T c o r r ido r . I t w a s r e c ogn i se d a t t he ou t se t t ha t c e r t a in ma r ke t sw i th l e s s po te n t i a l ha d to be omi t t e d : c ha r t e r a i r , p r iva t e a i r , c ha r t e r c oa c ha n d j o u r n e y s w i t h b o t h e n d s o u t s i d e t h e c o r ri d o r b u t w h i c h m a y p a s s t h r o u g ht h e c o r r i d o r . A s a r e s u l t , t h e t r i p m a t r i c e s w h i c h e v e n t u a l l y r e s u l t e d w e r ev i e w e d a s s o m e w h a t c o n s e r v a t i v e e s t i m a t e s , r e c o g n i s i n g t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o finc lud ing the se a dd i t iona l ma r ke t s i n f u r the r s tud ie s .

G i v e n s o m e i n it ia l i d e a o f t h e n u m b e r a n d d i s t r ib u t i o n o f tr i p s in t h ec o r r ido r f r om p a s se ng e r s t a t i st i c s a nd t r a f fi c c oun t s , the in t e r c e p t su r ve ys w e r es c h e d u l e d t o p r o v i d e a f a i r l y c o m p r e h e n s i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f s u r v e y s a c r o s sa l l r ou te s a nd a c r os s a l l t ime s o f da y a nd w e e k . D u e to the l imi t e d t ime sc a l ef o r da t a c o l l e c tion , s e a sona l i t y e f f e c t s w e r e l e f t to be c ons id e r e d in the e xpa n -s ion p r oc e du r e .Survey adminis tra t ionT h e s u r v e y s w e r e a d m i n i s t e r e d d u r i n g N o v e m b e r a n d e a r l y D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 7o v e r a s e v e n d a y p e r i o d a t e a c h s i t e . I n p r o c e s s i n g t h e d a t a , v a r i o u s r u l e sw e r e u se d to f i l l a mi s s ing que s t ion da t a w he r e pos s ib l e . The f ina l da t a ba sec ons i s t e d o f 29 ,982 t r ip s , w i th the d i s tr ibu t ion a c r os s mod e s show n be low . Theo v e r a l l r e s p o n s e r a t e w a s r o u g h l y 7 2 % . T h e h i g h e s t r e s p o n s e r a t e w a s f o rc a r a nd the low e s t w a s f o r t r a in ( s e e Ta b le 1 ) .T a b l e 1 . Summary o f su rvey sample s ize .M ode Dis t r ibu ted Effec t ive sample Response ra teA ir 25,260 16,166 64%Ca r 8,666 8,232 95%Co ach 4,296 3,437 80%Tra in 3,578 2,147 60%TO TA L 41,800 29,982 72%

Analys is based on the in tercept surveysEs t ima t ion o f tr ip ma tr icesThe sa mpl ing s t r a t e gy u se d f o r t he in t e r c e p t su r ve ys a l low e d f a i r ly s t r a igh t -f o r w a r d e x p a n s i o n o f t h e s u r v e y s t o p r o v i d e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e n u m b e r o f t r i p sg o i n g i n e a c h d i r e c t i o n b e t w e e n e a c h r e l e v a n t p a i r o f z o n e s , b a s e d o n t h es a m p l i n g r a t e s a d o p t e d a n d t h e r e s p o n s e r a t e s a c h i e v e d . W e e k l y n u m b e r s o ft r i p s w e r e o b t a i n e d d i r e c t l y a n d , w i t h s o m e a s s u m p t i o n s r e g a r d i n g s e a s o n -a l i t y , t he se c ou ld be c onve r t e d to ye a r ly t r i p t o t a l s .

T h e t ri p s w e r e d i v i d e d b y p u r p o s e a n d t y p e t o g i v e s i x f in a l p r o d u c t i o n -


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124a t t ra c t ion m a t r i c e s f o r e a c h m od e : ( 1 ) ho m e - ba se d bus ine ss t r ip s ; ( 2 ) hom e -ba se d v i s i t s t o f r i e nds a nd r e l a t ive s ; ( 3 ) hom e - ba se d "o the r " ( m os t ly ho l ida ya nd r e c r e a tion ) ; a nd ( 4 - 6 ) n on- h om e - ba se d t r ip s f o r the sa m e th r e e pu r po seg r o u p s . T h i s d i v i s i o n w a s m a d e p r i m a r i l y t o a c c o m m o d a t e p u r p o s e - s p e c i f i cm ode l s in the f o r e c a s t ing s t a ge .

T h e r e s u l t s o f t h e e x p a n s i o n w e r e o f m u c h i n t e r e s t a s t h e y w e r e t h e m o s ta c c u r a t e p i c t u r e e v e r p r o v i d e d o f t r a v e l i n t h e S y d n e y - C a n b e r r a - M e l b o u r n ec or r ido r . The ove r a l l r e su l t s we r e in l i ne w i th p r e v ious e v ide nc e , bu t w i th ah i g h e r n u m b e r o f s h o r t - d i s t a n c e c a r t ri p s i n th e c o r r i d o r t h a n h a d b e e ne x p e c t e d .T h e m a r k e t g r o w t h m o d e lF o r f o r e c a st in g , i t w a s n e c e s s a r y t o p r e d ic t h o w t h e n u m b e r o f t ri ps b e t w e e ne a c h z o n e p a i r f o r e a c h p u r p o s e w o u l d c h a n g e b e t w e e n t h e b a s e y e a r a n de a c h f o r e c a s t ye a r . I n o r de r to do th i s , we a s sum e d tha t bo th the p r oduc t iona nd a t t r a c t ion o f t r ip s wou ld be p r opor t iona l to e i the r the popu la t ion o r thee m p l o y m e n t i n a g i v e n z o n e . T h e f a c t o r s w h i c h w e r e u s e d f o r e a c h p u r p o s ewe r e , a s p r e se n te d in Ta b le 2 .

Table 2. Definitionof production and attraction dimensions for determination o f m arket growth.Purpose Production factor Attraction factor(1) H om e-based, business(2) Hom e-based, visit(3) Hom e-based, other(4) Non-hom e-based, business(5) N on-home-based, visi t(6) N on-home-based, othe r

Population EmploymentPopulation PopulationPopulation PopulationEmployment EmploymentPopulation PopulationPopulation PopulationT h e s e f a c t o r s w e r e b a s e d o n t h e p r e d i c t e d c h a n g e s i n p o p u l a t i o n , o r

e m p l o y m e n t b e t w e e n 1 9 8 7 a n d a g i v e n f o r e c a s t y e a r w i t h i n a g i v e n z o n e o rg r o u p o f z o n es . F o r " p o p u l a t i o n " , t h e f a c t o r w a s a c o m b i n a t i o n o f g r o w t h i nthe num be r o f pe op le a nd the num b e r o f house ho lds . F o r the z one s re p r e se n tingsm a l l e r towns a nd c i t i e s in the VF T c o r r ido r , t he p r e d ic t e d g r owth r a t e s we r einc r e a se d som e wha t to r e p r e se n t , i n a ve r y a ppr ox im a te se nse , t he e c onom icg r o w t h w h i c h w o u l d b e g e n e r a te d b y t h e co n s t r u c ti o n a n d p r e s e n c e o f th e V F Ts y s t e m .

N ote tha t t he p r oduc t ion a nd a t t r a ct ion f a c to r s a pp ly to the m a r g ins o f thet r ip s m a t r i c e s , wh i l e the t r ip s the m se lve s a r e c e l l s i n the m a t r i c e s . I n o r de rt o f i n d t h e a m o u n t o f g r o w t h i n t h e i n d i v i d u a l c e l l s w h i c h , w h e n s u m m e d ,s im ul t a ne ous ly m a tc he d the g r owth a long bo th the p r oduc t ion a nd a t t r a c t ionm a r g ins , t he m e thod o f i t era t i ve p rop or t iona l f i t t i ng ( I P F ) wa s use d .


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125A t t h is p o i nt , t h e g r o w t h i n t r a v el w a s a s s u m e d t o b e i n d e p e n d e n t o f m o d e .

T h u s , w e p r o d u c e d s i x n e w t r i p m a t r i c e s f o r e a c h f o r e c a s t y e a r , w i t h t r i p sa dde d a c r oss c a r , a i r , c oa c h a nd r a i l . I n f o r e c a s t ing , m ode c ho ic e m ode l s c a nthe n be use d to r e d i s t r ibu te the t r ip s a c r oss the se m ode s .Models of mode choiceS e p a r a te m u l t in o m i a l l o g i t m o d e l s o f m o d e c h o i c e w e r e e s t im a t e d f o r b u s i n e s sa n d n o n - b u s i n e s s t r ip s . A s o n e w o u l d e x p e c t , t h e m a i n e x p l a n a t o r y v a r ia b l e sf o r the se m od e l s w e r e the tr a ve l t im e a nd c o s t f o r the m a in m ode s - c a r, a ir,r a i l a nd c oa c h . O the r im por ta n t f a c to r s we r e the t im e a nd c os t o f a c c e ss a nde g r e s s m o d e s , t h e t r a v e l p a r t y s i z e , t h e d u r a t i o n o f s t a y a t t h e d e s t i n a t i o n ,a nd the a g e a nd inc om e o f the tr a ve ll er . O ve r a ll , a s one o f t e n f inds, t he se c ho ic em o d e l s b a s e d o n r e v e a l e d p r e f e r e n c e d a t a w e r e l e s s p r e c i s e a n d l e s s c o m -p r e h e n s i v e t h a n t h e s i m i l a r m o d e l s b a s e d o n s t a t e d p r e f e r e n c e d a t a w h i c ha r e d e s c r i b e d b e l o w .

4 . R e s e a r c h i n t o t h e d e m a n d f o r h i g h s p e e d ra i lFace-to-face surveys of potential passengersPurpose of the surveyI n o r d e r to p r e d i c t u s a g e o f t h e V F T s y s t e m , i t w a s n e c e s s a r y t o c o n t a c tp o t e n t i a l p a s s e n g e r s d i r e ct l y , u s i n g a f a c e - t o - f a c e s u r v e y in s t r u m e n t . T h em o s t i m p o r t a n t f u n c t i o n s o f th i s s u r v e y w e r e :- To p r ov ide da ta to e s t im a te d ive r s ion o f t rip s to the VF T,- To p r ov ide da ta to e s t im a te t r ip ge ne r a t ion due to the VF T,- To p r ov ide da ta to ind ic a te se r v ic e p r e f e r e nc e s f o r the VF T ,- To p r ov ide da ta to s tudy se a sona l i ty o f t r a ve l in the c o r rido r .

T o p r o v i d e a ll o f t h e s e t y p e s o f i n f o r m a t i o n , i t w a s c l e a r t h at a f a i r lyl e ng thy su r ve y in a f a c e - to - f a c e se t t ing wou ld be m os t a ppr opr i a t e , a nd tha ta l a r ge sa m ple w ou ld be r e qu i r e d , pa r ti c u la rly , w he n c o m pa r e d to a " typ ic a l "s t a t e d p r e f e r e nc e s tudy .Questionnaire designT h e f a c e - t o - f a c e s u r v e y q u e s t i o n n a i r e w a s d e s i g n e d t o i n c l u d e f i v e m a i nsec t ions :(1 ) A se c t ion f o r the r e sponde n t to sum m a r i se a l l o f the long- d i s t a nc e t rip s

the y m a de in the VF T c o r r ido r in the p r e c e d ing ye a r ( ind ic a t ing f o r e a c ht h e m o d e , o r i g i n , d e s t i n a t i o n , p u r p o s e , r o u t e , m o n t h , a n d t r a v e l p a r t ysize) .


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126(2) A s ta ted cho ice exper imen t in which the respondent was asked to choose

from all relevant travel modes, including the VFT, in the context of aspecific trip but with systematic changes in the times and costs of themodes.

(3) A section focussing on suppres sed t r ips which the respondent wouldhave liked to make but did not, their reasons for not making such trips,and their s ta ted in tent ions of making these trips or other additional tripsif the VFT were to become available.

(4) Attitudinal questions concerning possible service features for the VFT,such as package deals, location of stations, ticketing arrangements, etc.This section also included a second s ta ted cho ice exper imen t trading offamong a subset of these features.

(5) Questions to obtain a socio-economic and demographic profile of therespondent and their household.

Sections 2 and 3 were particularly important for forecasting, and deserve tobe discussed in more detail.The mode cho ice exper imen tThe stated mode choice experiment was probably one of the most ambitiousSP experiments ever carried out in transport research. The experiment involvedseveral steps:

- From Section 1 of the survey, a recent trip was chosen as the contextfor the experiment. If the respondent had not travelled recently in thecorridor, they were asked to describe their most likely such journey.

- The respondent was shown a realistic brochure describing the VFT service,including a route map, a timetable, a picture of the train, and a descrip-tion of some service features.

- The respondent was asked to describe the time and cost for them toaccess the nearest airport and the nearest coach and rail stations. Thesame was done for egress at the destination. This information was recordedon a specially designed form, shown in Fig. 1.

- The interviewer selected a set of 16 cards. Each card had a differentcombination of travel time and cost for the five modes (car, air, rail,coach and VFT), with the combinations specified using an appropriateorthogonal design. There were 14 such sets of cards, with the time andcost levels differing according to the distance of the journey (7 classes)and the level of fare paid (2 classes - business or non-business). Onesuch card is shown in Fig. 2.

- The interviewer presented one of the 16 cards at random. The accessand egress times and costs which had been calculated (step 3 above)were added on the card by the interviewer for each mode (except car) to


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127arrive at the total times and the total costs for the travelling party. Therespondent was then asked to choose which of the five modes they wouldselect for that journey if they were available with those times and costs.This procedure was repeated for 3 additional cards from the 16, alsoselected at random.

Due to the fairly complex and time-consuming nature of each choice task, only4 of the relevant 16 choice sets were given to each respondent. This proce-dure is appropriate as long as the responses are analysed across groups ofrespondents, but does require that the sample size be quite large.

Note that such a complex, customised face-to-face experiment would bean ideal situation for the use of microcomputer-administered interviewingwhich is becoming quite common. The computer would eliminate the needfor the interviewer to do so much selection of cards and calculation of timesof costs. Given the large number of respondents and locations which neededto be covered in a limited amount of time, however, it was decided that thecost of such a method would be prohibitive. Such an approach would becomefeasible in the near future, however, as computers and interview softwareimprove and become less expensive.

Also note that the actual times and costs used in the experiment were notstrictly of relevance as long as they were within a range which seemed real-istic to the respondent. The aim of the experiment was to provide the datanecessary to model the preference for the VFT relative to the other modesas a function of the importance placed on each of the travel attributes - andthus the market share diverted to the VFT under specific time and costscenarios.Que s t ions r e gard ing i nduc e d de mandIt was recognised from the outset that the VFT in itself may induce addi-tional trips, and thus raise the total level of travel in the corridor. Experiencewith the introduction of high-speed rail in France and Japan indicates that suchinduced travel may be as high as 30% of the total traffic. In the context ofthis study, "induced" travel not only includes the generation of new trips,but also the redistribution of trips from destinations outside the corridor tothose within the corridor (although the latter seems unlikely for purposessuch as business or visiting friends and relatives).

Four questions were central to the analysis of induced demand:1. Are there any t r ips in the corr idor [ma p] wh ich you w ould l i ke to make ,b u t f o r r e a s o n s c o n n e c t e d w i t h t h e d i f fi c u lt y o f tr a ve l, y o u o r o t h e r

m e m b e r s o f t h e h o u s eh o l d d o n o t m a k e ? [If not, go to (3)]2. W hy do n ' t you~they t rave l there by car / tra in~coach~plane? [Asked for

each mode, with a list of possible reasons supplied.]


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128

L T r ip T O S t a t io n ] A i rp o r t /T e r m i n a la . HOW DID/WOU LD YOU TRAVELTO THE A IRPORT/STATION/TERMINAL?

Car - dropped of f (COO ) (go to c) Tra in (TRN) (go to c)Car - parked (CPK) (go to c) Bus (BUS ) (go to c)Car - renta l (CRT) Plane (PLN) (go to c)Taxi (TX) (go to c) Other (Speci fy) (go to c)b . HOW LON G DID/WOULD IT TAKE TO HAN D IN YOUR CAR?c . HOW LON G DID/WOU LD IT TAKE UNTIL YOU GOT INSIDE THESTATION/AIRPORT/TERMINAL FROMd . H O W L O N G D ID / W O U L D IT TA K E TO H A N D I N Y O U R L U G G A G E A N DCHECK IN?e . HOW LO NG DID/WO ULD YOU HAVE TO WAIT BEF ORE GETTING ONBOARD?f. Tota l t ime (c + d + e)g . HOW M UCH DID/WOULD IT COST TO TRAVEL TO THE AIRPORT/STATION/TERM INAL ( INCLUDING PARKING AT THE AIRPORT/STATION/TERMINAL)(Assum e 5r for pr ivate cars and 7r for com pany cars. )REMEM BER TO INCLUDE COSTS OFALL PEOPLE PAID FOR BYYOU ORY O U R B U S I N E S S .

COACH/VFT/TBAIN PLANE

( rains) ( .... m ins)...... m ins mins

m ins .... rainsrains mins

[ o , o s ] l o , , I

i L T r i p F R O M t h e S t a t i o n ] A i r p o r t / T e r m i n a lh , HOW LONG DID/WOULD IT TAKE YOU TO CO LLECT YOUR LUGGAGEAND DEPART FROM THE AIRPORT/STATION/TERMINAL inc lud ingpick ing up your car)?i . HOW D ID/WO ULD YOU TRAVEL FROM THE AIRPORT/STATION/TERM INAL TO YOUR DESTINATION?

Car - me t (CCL) (go to k) Tra in (TRN) (go to k)Car - parked (CPK) (go to k) Bus (BUS ) (go to k)Car - renta l (CRT) Plane (PLN) (go to k)Taxi (TX) (go to k) Other (Speci fy) (go to k)j . HOW LO NG DID/WOU LD IT TAKE YOU TO RE NT THE CAR?I~ HOW LON G DID/WO ULD IT TAKE YOU TO GET FROM THE AIRPORT/

STATION/TERM INAL TO Y OUR DESTINATION?t. Tota l t ime (h + k)m. HOW MU CH DID/WOU LD IT COST TO GET FROM THE AIRPORT/STATION/TERM INAL TO YOU R DESTINATION ( INCLUDING PA RKINGATTHE AIRPORT/STATION/TERMINALANDCAR R ENTAL CHARGES)?(Assume 5 r fo r p r i va te ca rs and 7 r fo r company ca rs .)(REMEM BER TO INCLUDE COSTS OF ALL PEOPLE PAID FOR BY YOUO R Y O U R B U S I N E S S )

i i i . T o t a l A c c e s s P l u s E g r e s s T i m e ( f + I )i v . T o t a l A c c e s s P l u s E g r e s s C o s t ( g + m )

. . . . . mins minsra ins mins

( mins) mins)..... rains rains[ . . . . . ' n , I ~

( I n t e r v i e w e r : T r a n s c ri b e I t e m s ii i a n d i v to Sh o w c a r d s wh e n y o u h a v e c o m p le t e d b o t h c o lu m n s )

Fig. 1. Face-to-face interview access/egress summary.


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Fig2F

oanevewmoccScd


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1303. F or wh atever reason, do you th ink you r househo ld ' s t rave l migh t increase

in the Sy dne y -Canbe r ra -M e lbourne c or r idor i f t he V FT is av a ilab l e?4. Co uld you es t imate the poss ib le increase in t rave l be twee n the fo l low ingp lac e s f o r bo th bus ine ss and non-bus ine s s purpose s ? [ A s k e d f o r e a c h d e s -

t i n a t i o n a n d p u r p o s e . ] T h e r e s p o n d e n t w a s a l s o a s k e d t o d i s t i n g u i s hb e t w e e n t r i p s w h i c h w o u l d b e m a d e o n a r e g u l a r b a s i s , a n d t h o s e w h i c hw o u l d o n l y b e m a d e o n c e f o r t h e n o v e l t y v a l u e o f t h e n e w s e r v i c e .

T h e f i r s t t w o q u e s t i o n s w e r e d e s i g n e d t o i d e n t i f y t h e p r e s e n c e o f la tentor suppre s se d de m a nd a nd the poss ib le c ons t r a in t s on t r a ve l by the e x i s t ingm o d e s in t h e V F T c o r r i d o r. T h e r e a s o n s i n c l u d e t h e n o n - a v a i l a b i l i t y o f am o d e , e x c e s s i v e t r a v e l t i m e o r c o s t , i n c o n v e n i e n c e , d i s c o m f o r t , o r l a c k o fs a f e ty . T h e l a s t t w o q u e s t i o n s a r e d e s i g n e d t o p r o v i d e a n e s t i m a t e o f t h ep o s s i b l e i n c r e a s e i n t r a v e l b e t w e e n k e y c i t i e s a n d r e g i o n s f o r b o t h b u s i n e s sa n d n o n - b u s i n e s s p u r p o s e s i f t h e V F T w e r e i n t r o d u c e d . W e w i ll r e tu r n t oth i s a na lys i s be low.Sampl ing s t ra t e gyThe m os t up - to - da te a nd c onve n ie n t ba s i s f o r se l e c ting the sa m p le f o r the f a c e -t o - f ac e s u r v e y s w a s t h e in t e rc e p t s u r v e y s a m p l e , fo r m a n y o f w h o m n a m e s a n da d d r e s s e s w e r e k n o w n . A r a n d o m s u b s a m p l e w a s d r a w n f r o m t h e i n t e r c e p ts a m p l e , w i t h s t r a t i f i c a t i o n b y r e s i d e n c e a r e a i n o r d e r t o e n s u r e g e o g r a p h i cc o v e r a g e o f a n u m b e r o f m a j o r a n d m i n o r p o p u l a t io n c e n t re s i n t h e c o rr id o r .Nin e such cent res w ere se lec ted in addi t ion to the three main c i ties . S t ra t if ica tionwa s a l so m a de on t r a ve l m ode a nd pu r pose o f the in t e r c e p te d t r ip .

I t w a s r e c o g n i s e d t h a t th e i n te r c e p t s a m p l e w o u l d b e b i a s e d s o m e w h a ttowa r ds those who m os t f r e que n t ly m a ke long t r ip s in the c o r r ido r , a nd tha ti t wou ld a l so be im por ta n t to in t e r v ie w those who t r a ve l l e s s f r e que n t ly , a ss u c h p e o p l e m a y b e a n i m p o r t a n t s o u r c e o f n e w i n d u c e d t r a v e l . B a s e d o n a ne s t im a t e o f th e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e p o p u l a t io n w h i c h w o u l d n o t h a v e t r a v e l le din the c o r r ido r du r ing the p r e v iou s 12 m o n ths , i t wa s de c ide d tha t a n a dd i -t io n a l 2 0 % o f th e s a m p l e s h o u l d b e c o n t a c t e d c o m p l e t e l y a t r a n d o m - t h u s,no t s e l e c te d f r om the in t e r c e p t su r ve y .Surv e y admin i s t ra t i onT h e f i e l d w o r k b e g a n i n m i d - D e c e m b e r a n d r a n u n ti l th e f ir s t w e e k o f M a r c h ,1988 . I n to t a l, 2116 e f f e c t ive in t e r v ie ws w e r e c om p le te d , a n ove r a l l r e sponser a te o f 5 5 % o f l e tt e rs m a i l ed o u t f o r p a rt ic i p at io n a n d 8 5 % o f t h o s e a n s w e r i n gthe l e t t e r . Wi th a c om ple x in t e r v ie w, l a s t ing f r om 35 to 55 m inu te s , t he l a r genum be r c om ple te d wa s a subs ta n t i a l a c h ie ve m e n t ( Ta b le 3 ) .

A n In t e rna t iona l t our i s t s u r v e y w a s a l s o c a r r i e d o u t u s i n g a s h o r t e n e dv e r s i o n o f t h e q u e s ti o n n a ir e . T h i s i n c l u d e d r o u g h l y 2 0 0 i n t e rv i e w s a t S y d n e y


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131Table 3. Summary of response rates for face-to-face survey.

Sample Intercept Random TotalSegment Size % VFT Size % VFT Size % VFTCar-Non-business 859 32% 1409 38% 2268 36%Air-business 1221 53% 192 69% 1413 56%Train 305 61% 373 71% 678 66%Air-Non-business 213 68% 199 72% 412 70%Car-Business 250 54% 145 54% 395 54%Coach 187 74% 204 67% 391 70%

a i r p o r t a n d 1 0 0 a t M e l b o u r n e a i rp o r t, i n c l u d i n g r e s p o n d e n t s f r o m a w i d eva r i e ty o f c oun t r i e s .Analysis of travel diverted to the VFTT h e m a j o r s o u r c e o f p a s s e n g e r d e m a n d f o r t h e V F T w a s e x p e c t e d t o b e t h ed ive r s ion o f t r ip s a w a y f r om the e x i s t ing t r a ve l mo de s in the c o r r ido r - c a r ,a i r , c oa c h a nd t r a in . I n o r de r t o p r e d ic t t he e x te n t t o w h ic h t r a ve l l e r s w ou lds w i t c h t o t h e p r o p o s e d n e w a l t e r n a t i v e , a m o d e c h o i c e a n a l y s i s w a s c o n -d u c t e d o n t h e f a c e - t o - f a c e s t a t e d c h o i c e d a t a . I n d e v e l o p i n g a m o d e l l i n gs t rategy , w e expec ted t r ave l times and cos ts - inc luding access , m a in and egressm o d e s - t o b e t h e m a i n f a c to r s d e t er m i n i n g c h o i c e s b e t w e e n t h e m o d e s . I na dd i t ion , w e e xpe c te d pos s ib l e i n f lue nc e s f r om pe r son /house ho ld c ha r a c t e r i s -t i c s suc h a s i nc ome , a ge a nd c a r ow ne r sh ip , a n d f r om jou r ne y c ha r a c t e r is t i c ssuc h a s d i s t a nc e , du r a t ion o f s t a y , pu r pose a nd pa r ty s i z e . W e a l so e xpe c te dt h a t th e o r i g i n a n d d e s t i n a t i o n a r e a ( i. e . c it y v e r s u s c o r r i d o r ) m i g h t i n f l u -e n c e m o d e c h o i c e - c a p t u r i n g a c c e s s / e g r e s s / c o n v e n i e n c e e f f e c t s n o t f u l lyr e f l e c t e d in the t ime s a nd c os t s o f t he a l t e r na t ive s .

L o g i t d i s c r e te - c h o i c e e s ti m a t i o n w a s u s e d t o m o d e l t h e i n fl u e n c e s o f th e s ev a r i o u s f a c t o rs o n t h e p r o b a b i l it y o f s w i t c h i n g t o t h e V F T . O n e o f th e k e y c o n -s i d e r a t i o n s i n l o g i t m o d e l l i n g i s t h a t t h e s a m p l e u s e d f o r e a c h m o d e l b e a sh o m o g e n e o u s a s p o s s i b l e . F o r e x a m p l e , o n e s h o u l d a t t e m p t t o s e g m e n t t h es a m p l e t o i s o l a t e g r o u p s w h i c h a r e e x p e c t e d t o b e v e r y c o s t - s e n s i t i v e f r o mt h o s e w h o a r e p r e d o m i n a n t l y t i m e - s e n s i t i v e . I n t h i s s t u d y , w e e x p e c t e d t h ec u r r e n t t r a ve l mode to be a s t r ong ind ic a to r o f r e l a t ive t ime /c os t s e ns i t i v i ty ,w i th those u s ing a i r t e nd ing to be mos t t ime - se ns i t i ve , a nd those u s ing c oa c ho r r ai l t e n d in g t o b e l e a s t so . W e w o u l d a l s o e x p e c t m a n y o f th e u n m e a s u r e dc i r c u m s t a n c e s s u r ro u n d i n g t h e j o u r n e y s ( n e e d t o c a r ry h e a v y b a g g a g e , n e e df o r f l e x ib i l i t y i n t r a ve l t ime s , e t c . ) t o be d i f f e r e n t be tw e e n those w ho a c tua l lyc hose d i f f e r e n t mode s . The r e f o r e , a f t e r i n i t i a l mode l e s t ima t ion t e s t s on the


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132full sample, we segmented the sample according to the mode actually usedfor the journey.

The proportion of respondents preferring the VFT varies quite significant lyby segment. Prior to modelling, however, it was not possible to say whethersuch differences were due to differences in the tastes of the travellers, orsimply to the different times and costs of the competing modes.

It may be possible that the intercept-based sample is biased in certainrespects as opposed to the random sample for each mode/purpose. Specifically,the intercept may tend to capture more frequent travellers, who might exhibita greater "loyalty" to the existing mode. In fact, in the previous table wesee that the intercept respondents are generally somewhat less willing toswitch to the VFT. Therefore, we included a separate VFT-specific constantfor random (non-intercept) sample respondents in each model to adjust forthis difference. This constant can then be used in application if one assumesthat the responses from the random sample are the more realistic long-termresponses. One might, however, take the opposite view that the interceptresponses are more reliable because they would tend to be more recent tripsin which the respondents' constraints and circumstances were rememberedmore clearly.

Although we will not report the complete models here, we can summarisesome of the findings:- The estimated coefficients for time and cost are significant in all cases

except for the car cost for business trips which appear least cost sensi-tive. Using the estimated time and cost coefficients, we could infer amonetary value of travel time changes. These values range from around$30 per hour for business travel by air and car down to $5 per hour totravel by rail. Coach travellers also have a relatively low value - $10per hour - with non-business car and air travellers around $13 per hour.These values are similar to those from the models based on the inter-cept revealed preference data.

- The effect of increasing income is also significant, working in favour ofthe more expensive mode - towards VFT for car, coach and rail trav-ellers, and against VFT for air travellers.

- For car non-business, people on visits and holidays and people on one-daytrips are slightly more apt to switch to VFT, while those of age 35 ormore are more averse to the VFT. People making trips of less than 400km are also less willing to switch.- For business car travel, those 35 years and older again are less likely toswitch to VFT. Self-employed individuals are more likely to change -perhaps having more freedom in their choice of travel mode. Those in


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133households with fewer than 3 cars are more apt to switch, possibly becausethe car will be relatively more useful at home.

- For air travellers, the VFT is less attractive for journeys with a shortduration of stay, presumably because o f more rigid time constraints. Thiseffect was found for both business and non-business travel. First classair travellers for both purpose groups are also less apt to change to VFT.The effect of group size differs across purposes. For business, groups o f3 or more are less likely to be diverted, while the same is true for thosetravelling alone for non-business. For non-business, those making tripsof less than 400 km are more likely to use VFT, perhaps because airtrips of this distance offer a time savings which is too small to valuehighly.

- The models for coach and rail travellers show a number of similarities.The VFT appears most attractive for business travellers, and least attrac-tive for holiday journeys. For rail, the VFT becomes more attractive withincreasing duration of stay. This indicates that VFT is less competitivewith short-distance rail services which would tend to be used for daytrips. For both modes, the likelihood of using the VFT appears to decreasewith group size, and to be a good deal lower for those of age 65 or more.For coach, the VFT is more popular for trips of less than 400 km thanfor longer journeys.

- As we had expected, those in the random sample were more likely toselect the VFT, all else equal, in every model except for air non-business.The largest effect is for air business travel.

- Some origin- and destination-specific effects were also found, with theVFT tending to be most attractive to those travelling to and/or from thethree large cities - presumably due to the higher service frequency andconvenience of access.

Analysis of travel generated by VFTThe questions posed in the Face-to-Face survey were designed to elicit totalinduced demand, and allow a breakdown of this demand into three cate-gories:- Existing 'suppressed demand' - those trips which the population would

now like to make, but for which none of the available modes offers anacceptable journey.- 'Novelty ' trips - a 'once and for all' effect at the inception of the service,in that many people will opt to make a trip on the new facility just forits own sake, even if they would not intend to use it on a regular basis.


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134F u r t h e r p o s s i b l e d e m a n d - e x t r a ' p o s s i b l e ' t r ip s u s i n g t h e V F T , a d d i -t iona l t o c u r ren t tr ave l needs , w h ich peop le can imag ine mak ing . N a tu ra l ly ,w e w o u l d n o t e x p e c t t h a t e v e r y ' p o s s i b l e ' t r i p w o u l d i n f a c t b e m a d e ;t h e c o n s tr a in t s o f t i m e a n d m o n e y b u d g e t s w o u l d g e n e r a l ly h a v e a l i m i t in ge f fec t on t he ex t ra t rave l a c t i v i t y t h i s w o u ld imply .

G iven pa s t expe r i ence w i th s t a t ed i n t en t ions t e chn iques , i t i s know n tha t i nm a n y c a s e s t h e y w i ll p r o d u c e a n o v e r - s t a t e m e n t o f t ot al i n d u c e d d e m a n d ,pe rhaps no t fu l l y i ncorpora t ing the cons t ra in t s o f ava i l ab l e t ime , money ande f f o r t f a c e d b y t h e w o u l d - b e t r a v e l l e r s . F o r f o r e c a s t i n g , w e c h o s e t o f o c u son ' ex i s t i ng supp re s sed dem and ' - an i n t en t iona l ly conse rv a t ive a s sum pt iont o o f f s e t a n y o v e r - s t a t e m e n t b i a s a r i s i n g f r o m t h e s t u d y t e c h n i q u e . I t w a ss ti ll impo r t an t, how eve r , to ana lyse dem and fo r n ove l ty tr i ps and poss ib l e ex t rat ri ps i n o r d e r to h a v e a n i d e a o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f e x c l u d in g t h e m f r o m t h eforecas ts .

In t he ana lys i s , i t w as use fu l t o s t r a t i fy t he sample accord ing to t he f re -q u e n c y o f c u r r e n t t r a v e l , b o t h f o r e x p l a n a t i o n a n d f o r r e w e i g h t i n g t o ar e p r e s e n t a t iv e p o p u l at io n . T h e s a m p l e w a s s e g m e n t e d i n to " f r e q u e n t " ," regu la r" , " i n f requ en t " , and " no n-" t r ave l l e rs , ba sed on se l f - repor t ed t r ave lin t he co r r ido r i n t he p reced ing 12 months .Th e p rop or t i on o f i n t e rv i ew ees repor t i ng ex i s ti ng suppre s sed t r ips - t ri p st h e y w o u l d li k e t o h a v e m a d e b u t d i d n o t - r i se s f r o m 3 0 % f o r ' n o n - t ra v -e l l e r s ' t o 40% fo r ' f r equen t t r ave l l e r s ', and i s b road ly p ropor t i ona l t o ex i s ti ngt rave l f requency . Th e p rop or t i on repor t i ng poss ib le ex t ra tr i p s us ing the V F Tsys t em r i se s f rom 55% fo r ' no n- t rave l l e r s ' t o 70% fo r ' f r equen t t r ave l l e r s ' andi s a l so b road ly p ropor t i ona l t o ex i s t i ng t rave l f r equency .

A p r o p o r t i o n o f b o t h t h o s e w i t h a n d t h o s e w i t h o u t ex i s ti n g s u p p r e s s e dt r ips repor t ed poss ib l e use o f t he V FT sys t em; t he p ropor t i on fo r t hose w i thex i s t ing su ppre s sed dem and i s cons i s t en t ly h ighe r , in keep ing w i th t he expec -t a t ion tha t t hey a re en v i sag ing the use o f t he V FT bo th t o sa t i s fy t ha t ex i s t ingd e m a n d a n d f o r a r a n g e o f e x t r a ' p o s s i b l e' t ri ps .

We a l so ca l cu l a t ed numbers o f round- t r i ps t ha t t he re sponden t s e s t ima tedt h e y w o u l d m a k e d u e t o t h e i n t r o d u c t io n o f t h e V F T . T h e s e a r e d i s t in g u i s h e din to fou r c a t egor i e s , be ing ' r egu la r bus ine s s ' , ' r egu la r non-b us ine s s ' , ' nove l tybus ine s s ' and ' nove l ty non-bus ine s s ' . A s w i th t he p ropor t i ons , t he se re su l t sind i ca t ed t ha t those w i th ex i s ti ng suppre s sed d em and fo r t r ave l i n t he co r r ido rc o n s i s t e n tl y r e p o r t m o r e f u t u r e u s a g e o f t h e V F T t h a n t h o s e w i t h o u t. T h en o n - b u s i n e s s p u r p o s e a p p e a r s t o o f f e r a g r e a t e r a m o u n t o f i n d u c e d t r a v e lt h a n d o e s b u s i n e ss t r a v e l; p r e s u m a b l y b e c a u s e in t h e s h o r t - t e rm th e r e is abe t t e r apprec i a t i on o f n ew o r su ppre s sed oppo r tun i t ie s fo r d i sc re t i ona ry t ri p sthan fo r bus ine s s t ri p s .


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135B a se d on the se re su l ts , w e c ou ld c a lc u la te the to ta l a ve r a ge num be r s o f sup -

p r e s se d r ound- t r ip s , f o r e a c h c a te go r y o f tr ip , f o r e a c h t r a ve l f r e que n c y c l a s s ;w e i g h t i n g t h e m t o g e t h e r a c c o r d in g t o t h e p r o p o r t io n s i n e ac h f r e q u e n c y c l a ssin the r a ndo m ( non- in te r c ep t ) subs e t o f the da ta g ive s us a n ove r a l l a ve r a ge( r ound- ) t r ip r a t e pe r house ho ld f o r s tudy a r e a r e s ide n t s in e a c h o f m a in sub-a r e a s o f the s tu dy a r e a ( be ing the m a jo r c i t i e s a nd the c o r r ido r i t s e l f) , a ndthe r e su l t a n t to t a l s o f r e l e a se d la t e n t de m a nd r ound- t r ip s . T he d i s t r ibu t ionsa c r oss tr ip de s t ina t ions w e r e a l so ca lc u la t e d . S e pa r a te e s t im a te s w e r e m a de f o rthose r e s id ing ou t s ide the s tudy a r e a .

S i m i l a r c a l c u l a t i o n s w e r e d o n e f o r n o v e l t y V F T t r i p s ( m a d e o n c e ,f o r c u r i o s i t y ) b y b o t h r e s i d e n t s a n d n o n - r e s i d e n t s . T h i s s o u r c e o f t ri p si n d i c a t e s a s u b s t a n t i a l s o u r c e o f r e v e n u e s , p r o b a b l y i n t h e f i r s t t w o y e a r so f ope r a t ion .

F o r f o r e c a s t i n g , w e a l s o n e e d e d a n e s t i m a t e o f t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f i n d u c e dd e m a n d t o V F T s e r v i c e l e v e l s . T h e s u r v e y e x p e r i m e n t d e p i c t e d a f a c i l i t ywi th p r i c e s va r y ing a r ound two th i rds tha t o f the r iva l a i r t rip . W e no te tha tt h e " l a t e n t " t r a v e l m a r k e t w a s e n t i r e l y s u p p r e s s e d w h e n a i r w a s t h e o n l y( t im e - a c c e p ta b le ) t r a ve l m ode a va i l a b le . I gnor ing qua l i ty d i f f e r e nc e s be twe e nthe VF T a nd a i r f o r the se ne w t r a ve l le r s , we c ou ld a s sum e tha t a 50% inc r e a sein V F T p r i c e ( to l e ve l s a r ound the c o r r e spond in g a i r t rip ) wou ld onc e a ga ine n t i r e ly suppr e ss the l a t e n t m a r ke t . We c ou ld e xpe c t th i s a s sum pt ion to g ivec ons e r va t ive f o r e c a s t s f o r s c e na r ios wh e n V F T p r i c e s inc r e a se , and c ons ide ri t t h e b e s t a s s u m p t i o n , g i v e n t h e l i m i t e d i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e . C l e a r l y ,how e ve r , fu r the r d ir e c t e xpe r im e n ta t ion wo u ld be r e c om m e nde d f o r a ny fu r the rinve s t iga t ions in to induc e d de m a nd .

The e x te n t o f the ' w ide r m a r k e t ' , t he e x t r a poss ib le t rip s r e por t e d , a ppe a r sto be the l a rge s t o f the th r e e type s o f induc e d de m a nd c ons ide r e d . I t is im por -t an t t o s tr e ss t h a t w e w o u l d n o t r e c o m m e n d u s i n g a n y o f th i s m a r k e t f o rc u r r e n t f o r e c a s t s o f l i ke ly r ide r sh ip . W i thou t e x te ns ive a nd in - de p th inve s t i -g a t i o n o f t h is p o s s i b l e m a r k e t , a ll th a t c a n b e s a i d w i t h c o n f i d e n c e i s t h att h e r e su l t s o v e r - e s t i m a t e ( p o s s i b l e g r o s s l y ) t h e a m o u n t o f n e w t r a v e l th a tw o u l d b e g e n e r a te d . O n c e a g a i n , th i s w o u l d b e a n i m p o r t a n t r e s e a r c h a r e ain a ny f u tu r e m a r ke t inve s t iga t ion .

5 . F o r e c a s t in g t h e d e m a n d f o r t h e V F TThe forecasting fram ew orkS of tw a r e wa s c r e a te d to jo in t ly a pp ly the r e su l ts o f a ll o f the a na lyse s de sc r ibe da b o v e t o p r o d u c e f o r e c a s t s o f V F T r i d e rs h i p a n d r e v e n u e s o n a z o n e - t o - z o n e


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138The f o r e c a s t i s f o r 8 .9 m i l l ion VF T t r ip s pe r a nnum - 5 m i l l ion f r om c a r

a n d o v e r 2 m i l l i o n f r o m a ir - w i t h a l m o s t 4 m i l l i o n f o r b u s i n e s s t r ip s . T ot h is w e a d d 5 . 1 m i l l i o n g e n e r a t e d V F T t ri p s , f o r a t o t a l o f 1 4 m i l l i o n p e rye a r . I n c on t r a s t t o d ive r t e d t r ip s , t he m os t ge ne r a te d t r ip s a r e in the non-bus ine ss c a te gor i e s .

U p o n c o n v e r s i o n t o S y d - M e l s , w e s e e t h a t d i v e r s i o n f r o m a i r c o n t r i b u t e sm o r e V F T p a s s e n g e r k i l o m e t r e s t h a n d i v e r s i o n f r o m c a r , a n d t h a t a l a r g epr opo r t ion o f th i s i s bus in e ss t r a ve l. I n f a c t , the num be r o f tr ip s a nd pa sse nge r -k m s b y a i r a r e p r e d i c t e d t o f a l l b e l o w t h e i r 1 9 8 7 l e v e l s . T h e s a m e i s t r u ef o r c oa c h a nd t r a in , bu t no t f o r c a r .

A s w e l o o k f u r t h e r in t o t h e f u t u r e to 2 0 1 0 , u s e o f t h e V F T i s p r e d i c te d t og r o w s t e a d i l y - t o 7 . 4 m i l l i o n S y d - M e l s i n 2 0 0 0 , 8 . 1 i n 2 0 0 5 a n d 9 . 2 i n2 0 1 0 . N o n e o f t h e s e r e s u l t s i n c l u d e n o v e l t y t r i p s , w h i c h w e e s t i m a t e d t o b ea bou t 1 .25 m i l l ion S yd- M e ls ove r the f i r s t two ye a r s o f ope r a t ion .

S e n s i t i v i t y t e st i n g w a s a l s o u n d e r t a k e n f o r a n u m b e r o f i m p o r t a n t v a r i -a b l e s s u c h a s t h e f a re f o r V F T a n d c o m p e t i n g m o d e s , th e v a l u e o f t im es a v i n g s , i n c o m e g r o w t h , a n d f u e l p r i c e s - s o m e w i t h c h a n g e s a s m u c h a s20% low e r a nd h ighe r. T he se t e s t s sugge s te d a n ove r a l l ra nge o f f o r e c a s ts f r om4 .5 to 7 .5 S yd- M e ls in 1995 , w i th t r a ve l t im e s a nd c o s t c ha nge s ha v ing th em os t in f lue nc e .

6. Sum m ary and conclusionsT h e w o r k r e p o r t e d i n th i s p a p e r h a s c o n c e r n e d t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f fo r e c a s t so f po te n t ia l V F T r ide rsh ip , e i the r d ive r t e d f r om e x i s t ing t r a ve l m od e s o r ge n -e r a t e d a s n e w t r a v e l b y t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e V F T . T h i s h a s r e q u i r e d t h ed e v e l o p m e n t o f m o d e l s o f t h e re l a ti v e a t t ra c t iv e n e s s o f th e V F T a s c o m p a r e dw i t h e x i s t in g m o d e s o f t r av e l . H i g h l y d e t a i l e d m o d e l s h a v e b e e n p r o d u c e d ,e xh ib i t ing p la u s ib le t im e /c os t t r a d ing a nd se n s ib le t r e nds in te r m s o f pe r sona lor s i tua t iona l var iables .

W e h a v e a l s o d e v e l o p e d a s im p l e a n a l y s i s o f r e s p o n s e s t o q u e s t io n s a b o u tf u t u r e i n t e n t i o n s t o u s e t h e V F T , s e p a r a t i n g o u t c u r r e n t l y s u p p r e s s e d t r i p sw h i c h m i g h t b e m a d e o n t h e V F T a s b e i n g t h e m o s t d e p e n d a b l e c a t e g o r y o fp o t e n t i a l i n d u c e d d e m a n d t o a c tu a l l y ta k e p l a c e . C o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , s i m p l ea ssum pt ions ha ve be e n m a de to a l low a n in s igh t in to the p r i c e se ns i t iv i ty o fthe m a r ke t .

T o s u p p o r t t h e a n a l y s e s a n d f o r e c a s t s , a v e r y s u b s t a n t i a l d a t a c o l l e c t i o ne xe r c i se wa s u nde r t a ke n to e s t a b l ish the na tu re a nd c o m p os i t ion o f t r a ve l int h e V F T c a t c h m e n t a r e a . B o t h i n t e r c e p t s u r v e y s o f c u r r e n t t ra v e l l e r s a n df a c e - to - f a c e su r ve ys wi th c u r r e n t a nd po te n t i a l t r a ve l l e r s we r e de s igne d a nda dm in i s t e re d o n a l a rge sc a le . The b r oa d r a nge o f the se su r ve ys ha s a l lowe d


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139t h e i n t e g r a t e d a n a l y s is o f s e v e r a l d i f f e re n t ty p e s o f m a r k e t d a ta . R e g a r d l e s so f t h e f u t u r e o f t h e V F T , t h e p r o j e c t h a s c o n t r i b u te d s u b s t a n ti a ll y t o k n o w l -edge o f t he i n t e r - r eg iona l t r ave l i n t he bus i es t co r r i do r i n Aus t ra l i a .W e b e l i e v e t h e d a t a s o u r c e t o b e o f h i g h q u a l it y , w i th e v e r y e v i d e n c e th a tt h e r e s p o n d e n t s w e r e t h o u g h t f u l i n t h e i r r e s p o n s e s a n d w e r e f u l l y i n v o l v e di n th e e x p e r i m e n t . T h a t s a id , w e h a v e a i m e d f o r c o n s e r v a t i s m in o u r i n te r -p r e t a t i o n o f t h e d a t a ; w e h a v e i g n o r e d t h e w i d e r m a r k e t s o f V F T t r a v e l l e r sw h o m i g h t u s e t h e s e r v i c e p r i m a r i l y f o r i t s o w n s a k e , a n d i n a d d i t i o n , w eh a v e m a d e n o e s t i m a t e o f t h e p o t e n t i a l d i v e r s i o n f r o m a n u m b e r o f m i n o rmarke t s such as char t e r a i r and coach t r ave l .

T h e f o r e c a s t in g s y s t e m t h a t w a s d e v e l o p e d is c a p a b l e o f a c c e p t in g a m u c hg r e a t e r d e g r e e o f d e t a il i n r e s p e c t o f a tt ri b ut es o f t h e V F T s y s te m , a n d o f b e i n ge x t e n d e d t o c o v e r th e p a r ts o f th e m a r k e t c u r r e n t ly o m i t te d . W e h a v e r e c o m -m e n d e d t h a t t h is w o r k b e c o n s i d e r e d a s p a r t o f f u r t h e r d e m a n d m o d e l l i n geffor t s .

AcknowledgementsW e w o u l d l ik e t o a c k n o w l e d g e J o h n B r o t c h ie o f C S I R O a n d A l a n C a s t l e m a no f t h e V F T J o i n t V e n t u r e f o r t h e i r i n p u t t o a n d s u p e r v i s i o n o f t h e w o r kr e p o r t e d h e r e . O t h e r s w h o p l a y e d i m p o r t a n t r o l e s i n t h i s r e s e a r c h i n c l u d eF r a n k M i lt h o r p e , N a r i i d a S m i t h , A n d r e w D a l y , K e n T r a in , H e l e n B a t te l li n o ,P e t e r B a m a r d , J u l i e Y o u n g , P e t e r G i p p s, M i l e s A n d e r s o n , J o h n N i c h o l s, P a u lW i l d , E l i z a b e t h A m p t , R o b y n M i l l e r a n d A p p l i e d S u r v e y s ( n o w N a t i o n a lS u r v e y R e s e a r c h ) .

ReferencesGunn HF, Bradley MA & Hensher DA (1992) A Modelling Approach to the Development ofPassenger Forecasts for High-Speed Rail. HCG/Institute of Transport Studies.Hensher DA, Brotchie J & Gunn HF (1989) A Methodology for Investigating the Passenger

Demand for High-Speed Rail, Proceedings of the 14th Australasian Transport ResearchForum, Perth, 459-476.

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1992_Transportation_High Speed Rail Market Projection Survey Design and Analysis