1976 a study titled The Use of the Armed Forces as a Political · The data file and a control file containing a description of the ... type format statement that may allow more convenient

_ "I

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( FORCE WITHOUTWAR: THEYNITED

TSEH UFNITEDME-_STATES''--- -USE OF THE ARMED FORCES AS A POLIICAL ;INSTRUMENT., -

MANUAL

Stephen S./Kaplan

The Brookings Institution r- -7 ', F7 ,7

OCT 18 191 1

'Add Sponsored by,... .Advanced archProjects Agency,vAnAOdear c-- Amendment No. 3

Tle views and conclusions contained in this document ar those of theauthor, and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the

>. official policies, either expressed or implied, of the Defense Advanced" Research Projects Agency, the U.S. Government, or the Trustees, officers,or other staff members of the Brookings Institution.

U .___ (c,] j Technical ep')M L.L.......... .........C01

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I

FORCE WITHOUT WAR: MANUAL

ARPA Order No. 2820, Amend. No. 3/29 April 19771 Program Code No. 7W10

Contractor The Brookings Institution1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.

[Washington, D.C. 20036

Contract Date 1 July 1977

Contract No. N00014-77-C-047 9 v t,

Contract Expiration Date 31 March 1979Principal Investigator

Dr. Stephen S. KaplanI (202) 797-6000

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SUMMARY

\qJIn 1976 a study titled The Use of the Armed Forces as a Political

Instrument was completed at The Brookings Institution for the Defense

Advanced Research Projects Agency of the U.S. Department of Defense. The

study found that between I January 1946 and 31 October 1975, U.S. armed

forces were used on 215 occasions as a political instrument--i.e., as a

- means of influencing the decisions of foreign governments. An up-dating

of the file in 1977 revealed a total of 226 such actions through 31 December

1976.

This manual is designed to allow other researchers to make use of

the data that have been collected on these 226 incidents. It includes an

extended definition and discussion of the subject of study, a list of the

226 incidents, a description of the variables for which data were collected

for each incident, the full data file, and a listing of sources.

The data file and a control file containing a description of the

variables and their values have also been placed on a computer tape.

Information is provided about how copies of this computer tape may be obtained.

1A

iI CONTENTS

Page Part

1 I. Introduction

6 II. The Basic Concept

12 III. List of Incidents

24 IV. Description of Variables

KT 50 V. Data File

75 VI. Sources of Data

'V

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PART I

Introduction

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I Since the Second World War United States armed forces have served political

functions in many ways; by their size and character, location abroad, carrying

out exercises and visits, and so forth. In 1976 a study of one type of use of

U.S. armed forces as a political instrument-the use of discrete military moves

[ to influence particular foreign situations--was completed at The Brookings

[Institution. 1/ The study was supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects

Agency of the U.S. Department of Defense. Oneobjective of the study was to

rdetermine in empirical terms the historical record of those uses of the armed

forces that were of interest; that is, to identify the incidents in which the

'United States used armed forces as a discrete political instrument since the

Second World War, the political context of these incidents, the military units

employed, and the actions taken by these units.

After a systematic search of sources, 215 incidents meeting explicit

definitional criteria were discovered to have taken place between 1 January 1946

[and 31 October 1975--an arbitrary cut-off data necessarily imposed on the research.Following the study's completion, the list of 215 incidents was up-dated, with

the result that the revised file includes 226 incidents for the period 1 January

1946 - 31 December 1976. United States military actions in these incidents ranged

from the visit to a foreign port by a single warship as a specific illustration

1of U.S. support, to the crisis deployment of major ground, air and naval unitsU! against a backdrop including the mobilization of reserves and the placing on alert

of strategic nuclear forces. This manual is designed to allow other researchers

to make use of the data collected on these 226 incidents.

[ In some cases it was obvious that a particular use of the armed forces

constituted a discrete political-military operation. In many other instances,

however, it was not so obvious. Thus one of the first tasks was to define

In

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rigorously the basic concept or subject of the study. Only after definitional

criteria were established was it possible to determine whether or not any

instance of military activity was to be included as an incident. The definition

that was used is presented and elaborated upon in Part II.

A wide variety of sources were examined systematically in order to identify

political uses of the armed forces, as defined. Additionally, other sources

were examined in order to identify potential situations in which U.S. armed

forces might have been used as a political instrument, with the aim of guiding

research to uncover additional incidents. It is doubtful that all of the

political uses of U.S. armed forces during the period examined were discovered.

Reasonable confidence, however, may be held that the list of incidents presented

in Part III is virtually complete as regards the information available on an

unclassified basis.

This last point deserves amplification. No classified materials were

examined in the course of the study. Some documents were declassified, however,

upon request. Additionally, a number of organizations within the government

were, at least, cooperative. It is of further significance that an analyst

undertaking a similar study on a classified basis found a correlation of .89

between the incident list presented in Part III (less those uses of armed forces

that were added to the original list of 215 incidents) and a list of incidents

which, under the terms of the definition presented in Part II, classified data

indicate have taken place. Moreover, the set of incidents presented in Part III

are distributed roughly congruently over time with the set of incidents that

would be derived from the classified data. 2/

Part IV presents a listing and description of the dimensions--i.e., variables--

characterizing each of the 226 incidents for which data were collected. These

variables include the dates of the incidents and of initial uses of U.S. armed

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* Iforces, contextual characteristics, the types of armed forces used, themovement and activities of these forces, and the types and names of other

actors in each incident. In presenting a description of each variable for

which data were collected, Part IV also constitutes a codebook for making use

of the raw data. The variable and value descriptions are in a form that alsoIallows their convenient use as labels by researchers who might wish to use theStatistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) set of programs to analyze

I ~ the data file. 3/ Of course, other programs may also be used to examine the

data.

The full data file is reproduced in Part V, which also includes a Fortran-

type format statement that may allow more convenient use of the data.

Most of the sources examined in compiling the list of incidents presented

in Part III fall into the following three categories: official, records of

military organizations, such as air force, fleet, and division histories;

chronologies of international events, such as the quarterly chronology in the

Middle East Journal; secondary sources, including various events data files,

and compilations of U.S. military activity prepared for other purposes. The

full list of sources is presented in Part VI.

Also available for use by interested researchers are copies of a computer

tape containing two files, a "control" file and the data file. The control

file includes the variable names, descriptions and values presented in Part

IV of this manual, and the format statement included in Part V. Together

with other information that are also included, the control file may be

adapted as an input statement for establishing an SPSS program file. The second

file on the computer tape includes the raw data that are reproduced in Part V.

Copies of the computer tape may be obtained by writing to either of the

following addresses:

ICPSRP.O. Box 1248 '1Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106

Cybernetics Technology OfficeDefense Advanced Research Projects Agency1400 Wilson Boulevard

*J I Arlington, Virginia 22209

Footnotes:

1/ Barry M. Blechman and Stephen S. Kaplan, The Use of Armed Forces As A Political

Instrument (Brookings Institution report, 1976), 674 pp; publication under a

different title forthcoming in 1978.

2/ See Robert B. Mahoney, Jr., "A Comparison of the Brookings and CNA International

Incidents Projects," Center for Naval Analyses, Professional Paper No. 174,

February 1977.

3/ Norman H. Nie et al., Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (2d ed;

McGraw-Hill, 1975). Those unfamiliar with SPSS may wish to use William R.

Klecka et. al., Statistical Package for the Social Sciences: Primer (McGraw-

Hill, 1975).

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PART II

I The Basic Concept

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The definition of a political use of the armed forces that was employed

in order to determine the occurrence of an incident was as follows:

jA political use of the armed forces occurs when physical actionsare taken by one or more components of the uniformed military servicesas part of a deliberate attempt by the national authorities to influence,or to be prepared to influence, specific behavior of individuals in anothernation without engaging in a continuing contest of violence.

Thus a political use of the armed forces was inferred to have taken place

if five elements were present in a situation.

First, a physical change in the disposition (location, activity, and/or

readiness) of at least a part of the armed forces had to occur. Mere references

by policy-makers to the military (e.g., verbal threats) were not considered to

constitute a use of the armed forces. Aside from a particular interest in

examining situations in which the armed forces actually did something, it is

nearly impossible to delineate and sort out the purposes of all of the references

to the armed forces which have been made by policy-makers over the years. Military

activities were taken to include the use of firepower; the establishment or dis-

establishment of a permanent or temporary presence abroad; a blockade; an inter-

position; an exercise or other demonstration; the escort or transport of another

actor's armed forces or materiel; a visit by a military unit to a foreign location;

an evacuation; reconnaissance, patrol, or surveillance operations; or a change

in level of readiness. Readiness measures were taken to include changes in alert

status, the mobilization or demobilization of reserve forces, and the movement

of units toward or away from specific locations.

Second, behind this activity there had to have been a consciousness of

purpose. Virtually all military activity has some political consequence. Only

in those cases when a specific political impact appeared to be a significant

objective of the national command authority--e.g., a member of the National

Security Council--did the action qualify for inclusion as an incident.

1*4

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Third, decision-makers must have sought to attain their objectives by

gaining influence in the target states, not by physically imposing their will.

Generally speaking, armed forces may be used either as a political or as a

martial instrument. When used as a martial instrument, a military unit acts

Ito seize an objective (e.g., occupy territory) or to destroy an objective(e.g., defeat an invading army). In both of these examples, attainment of the

immediate objective itself satisfies the purpose for which the force was used.

T When used as a political instrument, the objective is to influence the behavior

of another actor--that is, to cause an actor to do something that he would not

otherwise do, or not do something that he would do otherwise. Thus the activity

of the armed forces units themselves does not attain the objective; goals are

obtained through the effect of the force on the perceptions of the actor.

Only instances of force used in this latter fashion were of interest.

Fourth, decision-makers must have sought to avoid a significant contest

of violence. Although a war may result from a use of the armed forces that

otherwise meets the terms of the definition, the initiation of war must not

have been the intent of the action. Of course, even the most intense and

protracted war may constitute a political use of the armed forces if the objective

is to cause the opponent to capitulate without necessarily totally destroying

his capacity to fight. Nevertheless, such large-scale uses of violence were

not of interest in this study.

Finally, a specific behavior had to have been desired of another actor.

A use of the armed forces had to have been directed at influencing specific

behavior in a particular situ'tion or at least to have occurred because of a

concern with specific behavior. Many military operations are designed to promote

good relations between two nations in a diffuse sense. Annual bilateral or

multilateral U.S. armed forces exercises, such as REFORGER in Europe and UNITAS

in Latin America, and good will cruises, such as the AMITY visits to African

-9-

ports, are examples of this phenomenon. These actions were not included as

incidents.

The delimitation of political uses of the armed forces that were of

interest may be further clarified by listing the sorts of military activity thet

I I were specifically excluded.

I . The Korean War and the U.S. involvement in the war in Indochina

between March 1965 and March 1972. U.S. armed forces were used in these conflicts

primarily as a martial instrument--i.e., to wage war. Objectives were gained[ ,or lost as a direct result of the outcome of violent interactions between opposing

forces. The symbolic value of the U.S. use of military force, the effect of its

use on the perceptions and expectations of decision-makers, was relatively

unimportant.

. Uses of U.S. armed forces deployed abroad to defend directv U.S.

property, citizens, or military positions. In these incidents components of the

armed forces were used in response to immediate threats of violence. Examples

would include actions by troops patrolling the Korean demilitarized zone, the

use of U.S. Army troops in the Panama Canal Zone to control demonstrations,

and incidents at the Guantanamo base in Cuba between Marine sentries and suspected

infiltrators. This military activity was not designed to cause foreign

policy-makers to terminate the undesirable activity but to terminate it in aJI direct fashion (e.g., by shooting an infiltrator). In those cares when the United

States reinforced a military deployment overseas in response to infiltration or

some other hostile activity it was assumed that the symbolic political value of

the reinforcement was at least as important as any imsediate improvement in

military capabilities. Thus incident of the latter type were considered political

uses of the armed forces.

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The psychological reinforcement of previously-established behavior

through the continuous presence or operation of military forces abroad. While

the stationing of U.S. armed forces abroad is certainly a political ect and

perhaps the most important political function served by U.S. armed forces, such

activity helps to maintain previously established behavior rather than to

establish new behavioral patterns. Only the initial establishment of an overseas

presence, the disestablishment of such a presence, or a significant change in

the size of the overseas deployment was included in the list of incidents.

- Routine activity primarily directed at maintaining or improving combat

readiness. This category of events includes most training exercises and maneuvers

and most visits to foreign ports by U.S. warships. Although there has often

been po3litical fallout from these interactions between U.S. military forces and

individuals in foreign nations, most routine military actions do not have

deliberate political objectives.

* Miscellaneous forms of support provided routinely to foreign governments

in nonconflict situations. Examples of these activities include disaster relief,

search and rescue operations, and the movement of refugees. Usually these

operations do have a political objective but a very diffuse one: to enhance

U.S. influence in the recipient nation. Consequently they did not meet the

definitional requirement of specificity.

o The provision of military assistance. This activity encompasses an

important political dimension, but the factors determining the success or failure

of military assistance--which is usually given over a protracted period of time--

are likely to be quite different from those affecting the outcomes of discrete

political uses of the armed forces.

. Incidents in which noncombatant forces were used to evacuate American

citizens from areas of impending conflict. Actually, such incidents are rare,

insofar as most instances of evacuation have coincided with the use of combatant

F[-11-

forces. In these latter incidents the primary U.S. purpose usually was not

to rescue Americans directly but to cause foreign leaders to stabilize a

threatening situation. Cases in which combatant forces were employed are

included in the list of incidents.

• The use within the United States of active or reserve military forces

to control civil disturbances, to aid in relief efforts following national

disasters, and to achieve other objectives. These actions are not related to

foreign behavior and thus were of no interest in the study.

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Part III

List of Incidents

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IThe sources listed in Part VI indicate that the United States used its

armed forces as a political instrument, as defined in Part II, on 226 occasions

between 1 January 1946 and 31 December 1976. These incidents are listed below

in terms of: the sequence or case number of the incident in the data file;

a phrase describing the basic situation that attracted U.S. attention and led

[ to the use of armed forces as a political instrument; the month and year in

which the use of armed forces was initiated; the incident's number in the

Aoriginal data file held by the authors of the study.

Certain situations are considered to comprise two or more incidents

* rather than just one--e.g., the political crises in Lebanon in 1958, in the

" Congo in 1960-64, and in the Dominican Republic in 1965-66. This approach

allows a more useful analysis of instances in which there occurred two or more

clear modal uses of U.S. armed forces, or a significant change in the nature

of the situation. In many instances the situation of concern occasioned an

almost immediate use of armed forces. In other instances, however, a lag of

some months occurred.

The incidents list follows:

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LIST oF INCIDENTSHonth/Year

___ ___ __ ___ ___ __ ___ ___ __U.S. F r e

Case Number and Political Context FirstFosedsFBrookingsFirt Used File Number1. Coup and civil strife in Haiti Jan. 1946 1

2. Security of Turkey Mar. 1946 215

3. Political conflict in Greece Apr. 1946 2134. Civil war in China

Apr. 1946 272

5. Security of Trieste Jun. 1946 836. Security of Turkey

Aug. 1946 2117. Insurgents in Greece Sep. 1946 214

8, Inauguration of Pres. in Chile Nov. 1946 29. U.S. aircraft shot down byYugoslavia

Nov. 1946 19910. Political change in Lebanon Dec. 1946 267l li. Inauguration of Pres. in Uruguay Feb. 1947 265* 12. Civil war in Greece Apr. 1947 204

13. Cuba support for anti-Trujilloists May 1947 314. Security of Turkey May 1947 212

15. Security of Trieste Aug. 1947 84

16. Elections in Italy Nov. 1947 200

17. Improved relations with Argentina Jan. 1948 24618. Security of Berlin

Jan. 1948 27419. Security of Trieste

Jan. 1948 8520. Arab-Israel war

Jan. 1948 114

21. Interests in Persian Gulf Jan. 1948 11322. Security of Norway Apr. 1948 255

23. Security of Berlin Apr. 1948 90

24. Security of Berlin Jun. 1948 91

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I Month/YearU.S. Forces Brookings

Case Number and Political Context First Used File Number

1 25. Change of government in China Dec. 1949 273

26. Political developments in Indochina Mar. 1950 139

27. France - Viet Ninh war Jun. 1950 141

28. Korean War: Formosa Straits Jun. 1950 140

29. Korean War: Security of Europe July 1950 92

30. Political developments in Lebanon Aug. 1950 115

31. Security of lugoslavia Mar. 1951 94

32. Inauguration of Pres. in Liberia Jan. 1952 268

33. Improved relations with Spain Jan. 1952 97

34. Security of Turkey Aug. 1952 263

35. Political developments in Lebanon Nov. 1952 259

36. China - Taiwan conflict Feb. 1953 250

37. Soviet aircraft fire on NATO aircft. Mar. 1953 96

38. End of war in Korea July 1953 233

39. Security of Japan/South Korea Aug. 1953 271

40. France - Viet Minh war: Dienbienphu Mar. 1954 147

41. Guatemala accepts Soviet bloc suppt. May 1954 4

42. France - Viet Minh war: Dienbienphu July 1954 148

43. British airliner shot down by China July 1954 150

44. China - Taiwan conflict: Tachen Isl. Aug. 1954 151

45. Election in Honduras Sep. 1954 5

46. Accord on Trieste Oct. 1954 252

47. Nicaragua supports insurgents inCosta Rica Jan. 1955 6

48. Austria State Treaty Aug. 1955 251

49. China - Taiwan conflict Jan. 1956 256

50. Egypt - Israel conflict: Red Sea Feb. 1956 220

S- 16-

Month/Year

U.S. Forces Brookings


51. British Gen. Glubb ousted in Jordan Apr. 1956 118

52. Egypt nationalizes Suez Canal July 1956 119

t 53. Suez crisis Oct. 1956 120

54. Security of U.S. military personnel

and bases in Morocco Oct. 1956 121

55. Egypt - Israel conflict: Red Sea Feb. 1957 270

56. Political - military crisis in

Indonesia Feb. 1957 75

57. Political - military crisis in Jordan Apr. 1957 122

58. Civil strife in Taiwan May 1957 209

59. Coup and civil strife in Haiti Jun. 1957 7

60. Civil strife and elections inLebanon Jun. 1957 257

61. China - Taiwan conflict July 1957 157

62. Political developments in Syria Aug. 1957 123

63. Indonesia - Netherlands crisis Dec. 1957 74

64. Coup and civil strife in Venezuela Jan. 1958 8

65. Political - military crisis inIndonesia Feb. 1958 76

66. Political crisis in Lebanon May 1958 203

67. Security of Vice President Nixon in

Venezuela May 1958 9

68. Americans seized by insurgents in

Cuba July 1958 10

69. Political crisis in Lebanon July 1958 124

70. Political crisis in Jordan July 1958 125

71. China - Taiwan crisis: Quemoy

& Matsu July 1958 159

72. Insurgents in Cuba Oct. 1958 11I,I:

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| .- Month/YearU.S. Forces Brookings


73. Castro seizes power in Cuba Jan. 1959 243

74. Cambodia - Thailand crisis Jan. 1959 160

75. Security of Berlin Feb. 1959 98

76. Atlantic cables cut Feb. 1959 99

77. Cuba supports insurgents: Panama Apr. 1959 12

78. Security of Berlin May 1959 216

79. China - Taiwan conflict July 1959 222

80. Civil war in Laos Aug. 1959 161

81. Cuba supports insurgents: Haiti Aug. 1959 13

82. Political developments in Cuba Nov. 1959 15

83. Improved relations with Indonesia Nov. 1959 260

84. Anti-Castro insurgents overflyCuba Feb. 1960 22

85. Unidentified submarine off Argentina Feb. 1960 19

86. Insurgents in Cuba Apr. 1960 16

87. Political - military crisis in Congo July 1960 61

88. Political developments in Cuba Aug. 1960 21

89. Coup and civil war in Laos Aug. 1960 248

90. Civil war in the Congo Sep. 1960 202

91. Cuba supports insurgents:Guatemala/Nicaragua Nov. 1960 17

92. Security of Guantanamo base in

Cuba Dec. 1960 20

93. Improved relations with Iraq Dec. 1960 269

94. Insurgents seize Portuguese shipSanta Maria Jan. 1961 18

95. ivil war in Congo Jan. 1961 68

96. Civil war in Laos Feb. 1961 163

97. U.S. ship Western Union seizedby Cuba Mar. 1961 23

4 - - ______

T2 -18-Month/Year

CsU.S. Forces BrookingsCase Number and Political Context First Used File Number

98. Bay of Pigs Apr. 1961 24

99. Trujillo assassinated in

Dominican Republic Jun. 1961 25

100. Unidentified submarine offEcuador Jun. 1961 26

101. Elections and civil strife in

Zanzibar Jun. 1961 62

102. Security of Berlin Jun. 1961 102

103. Security of Kuwait July 1961 127

104. Trujillos refuse to leave DominicanRepublic Nov. 1961 27

105. Civil war in So. Vietnam Dec. 1961 164

106. Security of Guantanamo base inCuba Jan. 1962 225

107. Civil war in So. Vietnam Feb. 1962 165

108. Civil strife in Guatemala Mar. 1962 28

109. Hostile Soviet Naval activityin the Baltic Sea May 1962 244

110. Civil war in Laos May 1962 167

111. Improved relations with Iceland Jun. 1962 240

112. China - Taiwan conflict Jun. 1962 168

113. Political developments in Haiti Aug. 1962 30

114. Soviet emplacement of missilesin Cuba Oct. 1962 31

115. China - India war Oct. 1962 78

116. Political instability in

Guatemala Dec. 1962 29

117. Inauguration of President inDominican Republic Feb. 1963 275

118. Insurgents seize Venezuelanmerchantman Anzoategui Feb. 1963 33

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Month/YearU.S. Forces Brookings


119. Civil war in Yemen Feb. 1963 129

120. Dom. Rep. - Haiti conflict Apr. 1963 34

121. Withdrawal of missiles from Turkey Apr. 1963 103

122. Political crisis in Jordan Apr. 1963 130

123. Civil war in Laos Apr. 1963 170

124. Civil war in Laos May 1963 236

125, Buddhist crisis in So. Vietnam Jun. 1963 173

126. Dom. Rep. - Haiti conflict Aug. 1963 35

127. Coup in Dominican Republic Sep. 1963 36

128. China - Taiwan crisis Sep. 1963 174

129. Security of Berlin Oct. 1963 104

130. Indonesia - Malaysia conflict Nov. 1963 224

131. Cuba supports insurgents: Venezuela Nov. 1963 266

132. Improved relations with Israel Nov. 1963 276

133. Assassination of Diem in SouthVietnam Nov. 1963 175

134. Improved relations with SovietUnion Dec. 1963 241

135. Cuba supports insurgents: Mexico Jan. 1964 41

136. Security of Panama Canal Zone Jan. 1964 37

137. Coup and civil strife in Zanzibar Jan. 1964 63

138. Cyprus-Greece-Turkey crisis Jan. 1964 105

139. Coup in South Vietnam Jan. 1964 177

140. Coup in Brazil Mar. 1964 38

141. Political developments inCambodia Mar. 1964 178

142. Security of Guantanamo base inCuba Apr. 1964 221

- 20 -iMonth/Year

U.S. Forces BrookingsCase Number and Political Context First Used File Number

143. Civil war in Laos Apr. 1964 179

144. Elections in Panama May 1964 39

145. Civil strife in British Guiana May 1964 228

146. Cyprus-Greece-Turkey crisis Jun. 1964 226

147. Cuba supports insurgents:Dominican Republic July 1964 44

148. Civil war in Congo Aug. 1964 65

149. Cyprus-Greece-Turkey crisis Aug. 1964 106

150. Insurgents in Haiti Aug. 1964 42

151. No. Vietnam fires on U.S. ships:

Tonkin Gulf Aug. 1964 180

152. Indonesia - Malaysia crisis Sep. 1964 79

153. Cuba supports insurgents:

Venezuela Oct. 1964 43

154. Civil war in the Congo: Hostages

in Stanleyville Nov. 1964 66

155. Viet Cong attack Bien Hoa barracksin South Vietnam Nov. 1964 182

156. Worsened relations with Tanzania Jan. 1965 67

157. Viet Cong attack Pleiku air base

in South Vietnam Feb. 1965 184

158. Viet Cong attack Qui Nhon barracksin South Vietnam Feb.. 1965 185

159. Civil war in Dominican Republic Apr. 1965 47

160. Cuba supports insurgents:British Guiana Apr. 1965 46

161. West German parliament meets inSBerlin Apr. 1965 107

162. Cuba supports insurgents: Venezuela May 1965 279

163. War in Vietnam: Withdrawal of

troops from Europe July 1965 258

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164. Political developments in Cyprus July 1965 230

165. Civil war in Yemen Aug. 1965 229

166. Civil war in Dominican Republic Sep. 1965 201

167. India-Pakistan war Sep. 1965 80

168. Attempted coup in Indonesia Oct. 1965 278

169. Improved relations with Egypt Sep. 1966 242

170. Israel attacks Jordan: Samu Dec. 1966 131

171. Insurgents in Thailand Dec. 1966 188

172. Coup in Greece Apr. 1967 231

173. Improved relations with France May 1967 239

[7 174. Arab-Israel war May 1967 132

175. Insurgents in the Congo July 1967 70

* 176. Political developments in Cyprus Aug. 1967 232

177. Egypt sinks Israeli destroyerEilat Oct. 1967 108

178. Pueblo seized by North Korea Jan. 1968 189

179. Invasion of Czechoslovakia Sep. 1968 109

180. Israel attacks Lebanon: BeirutAirport Dec. 1968 253

181. North Korea attacks South Koreanfishing boats Dec. 1968 190

182. EC-121 shot down by No. Korea Apr. 1969 191

183. Civil strife in Curacao May 1969 53

184. Political developments in Libya Nov. 1969 280

185. Insurgents in Haiti Apr. 1970 237

186. Civil strife in Trinidad Apr. 1970 55

. . .. . . . . . .

l -22

C boCMonth/YearU.S. Forces Brookings

Case Number and PoliticalContext First Used File Number

187. Civil strife in Jordan Jun. 1970 235

188. Arab-Israel ceasefire agreement Aug. 1970 227

189. Civil war in Jordan Sep. 1970 134

190. Soviet submarine base in Cuba Oct. 1970 56

191. Civil war in Cambodia Jan. 1971 238

192. Withdrawal of troops from So. Korea Feb. 1971 254

193. Duvalier dies in Haiti Apr. 1971 57

194. Improved relations with SovietUnion Apr. 1971 247

195. Standown in Sea of Japan May 1971 249

196. India-Pakistan (Bangladesh) war Dec. 1971 82

197. Seizure of merchantmen by Cuba Dec. 1971 58

198. North Vietnam offensive in SouthVietnam May 1972 186

k 199. Breakdown in peace talks with NorthVietnam Dec. 1972 219

200. Civil war in Laos Feb. 1973 194

201. Civil war in Cambodia Feb. 1973 262

202. Peace agreement with No. Vietnam Feb. 1973 193

203. Civil strife in Lebanon May 1973 277

204. Civil war in Cambodia Aug. 1973 261

205. Arab-Israel war Oct. 1973 135

206. Arab oil embargo Oct. 1973 217

207. Civil war in Cambodia Jan. 1974 234

208. Egypt-Israel Sinai agreement Feb. 1974 136

209. Improved relations with Egypt Apr. 1974 137

210. Cyprus-Greece-Turkey crisis July 1974 i1

211. Arab oil policy Nov. 1974 218I

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S212. Attack on U.S. property in Cyprus 1Jan. 1975 281

213. Civil war in Ethiopia 1 Feb. 1975 282

214. Improved relations with Kenya 1 Feb. 1975 283

215. Collapse of regime in Cambodia Feb, 19J5 187

216. Collapse of regime in SouthVietnam Mar. 1975 195

217. Improved relations with SovietUnion May 1975 245

218. Cambodia seizes U.S. merchantmanMayaguez May 1975 196

219. Civil war in Lebanon Jan. 1976 284

220. Civil war in Lebanon 1 Mar. 1976 285221. Security of Yugoslavia Mar. 1976 286

222. Security of Israel 1 Apr. 1976 287

1223. Civil war in Lebanon Jun. 1976 288

224. Kenya-Uganda conflict I July 1976 289

225. U.S. officers murdered inKorea DMZ 1 Aug. 1976 290

226. Independence Day holiday inKenya 1' Dec. 1976 291

Incident added to the original file of 215 incidents.

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PART IV

Description of Variables

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This part of the manual presents the "codebook" and other information that

are necessary for accessing and interpreting the data file that is reproduced in

Part V. The data for each case are distributed over four lines (cards), the full

file comprising a total of 904 lines (226 incidents x 4 lines = 904 lines).

Thus the data related to Incident 1 (Coup and civil strife in Haiti - January

1946, as listed in Part III) are presented in lines one through four of the data

file, the date pertaining to Incident 2 (Security of Turkey - March 1946) appear

on lines five through eight, and so forth.

The data file describes each of the 226 cases in which the United States

used armed forces as a political instrument, as defined in Part II, in terms of

207 variables. For the purpose of this presentation, these variables are

divided into seven sub-groups, as follows: A) incident identification numbers and

dates; B) contextual characteristics of the incident; C) the types and siLes of

U.S. armed forces units used in the incident; D) the movement and readiness status

of U.S. armed forces used in the incident; E) the activities of U.S. armed forces

used -in the incident; F) the number and types of actors in the incident besides

the United States; G) U.S. public opinion of the President before and after the

incident, as surveyed by the Gallup Poll.

Each variable is presented in the following pages in terms of a name,

description and values, and its location in the data file. The order in which

the variables are presented is the same as the order in which they appear in the

data file. A Fortran-type format statement is included in Part V.

The letters of the variable and value descriptions in the following pages

that are capitalized conform to SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences)

variable label and value label size requirements. Information presented in lower

case. letters and parentheses elaborates on these descriptive labels, which in some

instances are too abbreviated to provide a full understanding of the variable. The

-26-

example on the next page will further clarify the format of the presentation in

the.pages following.

Preceding the data file on the computer tape is a control file that includesthe material presented in sections A through G below in a form that might allow

the control file to be adapted as a program for the creation of an SPSS file.

Of course, other programs may also be used to analyze the data, and this control

file may be ignored.

1.

toi

' .1

i . i

ii

- 27 -

[ICARD 1 -line (card) number where variable is denoted within each case

column(s) in line (card) where variable is denoted

29 SUPRCFOR --- USSR OR PRC USE OF MILITARY FORCE

3o (use of military force by Soviet Union or PeoplesRepublic of China)

Values Labels

1 USED FORCE INIT (incident initiated insuggested variable conjunction with USSR or PRC use of

name force)

2 THREAT FORCE INIT (incident initiatedin conjunction with USSR OR PRC threatto use force)

3 USED AF INC BEGAN (USSR or PRC used

- variable description military force only after incident

and suggested SPSS began)" variable label

4 THREAT AF INC BEGAN (USSR or PRC threatenedto use military force only after incidentbegan)

5 NO USE OR THREAT (no USSR or PRC use or

threat to use military force in conjunctionwith incidpnt)

8 -. DK IF THREAT FUSSR and PRO did not use military

.4 jf orce in conjunction with incident, but don't

elaboration of f i a threat to do so was made)variable description T

data code value description elaboration of

number and suggested SPSS value descriptionvalue label

28

-- Card I

FA. Incident identification numbers and dates (for the variableslisted in this section, a value of zero indicates that datum

Swas unavailable).

1-3 CASNUM INCIDENT SEQUENCE NUMBER IN DATA FILEI IValues: 1-226; no labels.

4-6 INCIDNUM BROOKINGS INCIDENT FILE NUMBERValues: 1-291; no labels.

7- 7-8 MONTHBEG MONTH INCIDENT BEGAN (relevant political context).Values: 1-12, corresponding with months of year;

labels, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH, ... DECEMBER.

9-10 DAYBEG DATE INCIDENT BEGAN (relevant political context)Values: 1-31, corresponding with first to lastpossible date in month during which incidentbegan; no labels.

11-12 YEARBEG YEAR INCIDENT BEGAN (relevant political context)Values: 46-76, corresponding with calendar years;labels, 1946, 1947, 1948,...1976.

13-15 NhUMDAYS NUMBER OF DAYS OF INCIDENT (duration of relevantpolitical context) Values: 1-999, corresponding

-" with number of days between beginning and end ofincident; no labels.

16-17 FOMOBEG MONTH US ARMED FORCES FIRST USED (first alert,movement, or action related to incident) Values:1-12, corresponding with months of year; labels,JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH,...DECEMBER.

18-19 FODABEG DATE US ARMED FORCES FIRST USED (first alert,movement, or action related to incident) Values:1-31, corresponding with first to last possibledate in month during which U.S. forces were firstused; no labels.

11 20-21 FOYRBEG YEAR US ARMED FORCES FIRST USED (first alert,movement, or action related to incident) Values:

1946, 1947, 1948,...1976.

22-24 FONUDAYS NUMBER OF DAYS US ARMED FORCES USED (duration of use

of armed forces in relation to incident) Values:1-999, corresponding with number of days betweenbeginning and end of use of aimed forces; no labels.

_ _ _ __+

-29-

Card I

B. Contextual characteristics of the incident

25-26 REGION REGION WHERE US FORCES WERE FIRST USED

iValues Labels

1 CEN AMER-CARIBBEAN (Central America - Caribbean;

includes Mexico and Venezuela)

2 SOUTH AMERICA (excludes Venezuela)

3 ATLANTIC OCEAN

4 EUROPE (includes Cyprus, Iceland, Soviet Unionand Turkey)

5 N. AFRICA-MIDEAST (North Africa-Middle East;

includes Iran and Sudan)

6 SUB-SAHl AFRICA (Sub-Sahara Africa)

7 SOUTH ASIA (includes Afghanistan and Burma)

i7 8 SO'EAST ASIA (Southeast Asia; includes Indonesia,Malaysia, and Oceania)

9 E. ASIA-PACIFIC (East Asia-Pacific; includesPhilippines)

27-28 SITUATIN SITUATION PRECEDING U.S. USE OF FORCE

Values Labels

1 INTERST CONFL CONT (continuing violence betweennations other than U.S.)

2 INTERST CONFL SPOR (sporadic violence betweennations other than U.S.)

3 INTERST RELS UNFRND (unfriendly but non-violentrelations between nations other than U.S.)

4 INTERST RELS FRNDLY (friendly or correct relationsbetween nations other than U.S.)

5 EXT SUP INSURGENCY (externally supported insurgencyin a nation)

6 INTERNAL CONFLCT (major violence within a nation;includes non-externally supported insurgencies,civil wars, etc.)

30

Card 1

7 INTERNAL TURMOIL (civil strife within a nation.

8 COUP (recent overthrow or attempt to overthrow-government, excluding insurgency, civil war, etc.)

9 CON CHNG IN GOVT (impending or recent constitutionalchange iv government)

10 OTHER INTERNAL (situation of an intra-state nature"V not included in above categories)

11 HOST POL AG US (hostile political initiative takenagainst U.S. directly or indirectly)

L 12 GOVT ATK US C-P (government supported attack orV threat directed at U.S. citizens or propertyl

13 OTHR ATK US C-P (non-government supported attack

or threat directed at U.S. citizens or property)

14 ATTK ON USMILFO (attack or threat directed at U.S.armed forces or military bases abroadi

15 US-OTHR RELS UNFRND (unfriendly relations betweenU.S. and an actor)

16 US-OTHR RELS FRND (friendly relations between U.S.and an actor)

29 SUPRCFOR USSR OR PRC USE OF MILITARY FORCE (pse of military forceby Soviet Union or Peoples Republic of Chinal

Values Labels

1 USED FORCE INIT (incident initiated i"a conjunctionwith USSR or PRC use of force)

S2 THREAT FORCE INIT (incident initiated in conjunction

with USSR or PRC threat to use force)

3 USED AF INC BEGAN (USSR or PRC used military force only,after incident began) i

4THREAT AF INC BEGAN (USSR or PRC threatened to usemilitary force only after incident began)

5 NO USE OR THREAT (no USSR or PRC use or threat to usemilitary force in conjunction with incident)

-31-

Card 1

8 DK IF THREAT (USSR and PRC did not use military

force in conjunction with incident, but don't knowif a threat to do so was made)

30 CHSZFORP US DEPLOY CHANGE IN PREV 2 YEARS (overall changein number of U.S. armed forces personnel deployedin theater where incident occurred during two years

prior to use of force)

Values Labels

1 UP 20 PCT OR MORE (increased by at least 20 percent)

- 2 UP 10-19.9 PCT (increased by 10-19.9 perccnt)

3 UP-DN 0-9.9 PCT (increased or decreased by less than10 percent)

4 DN 10-19.9 PCT (decreased by 10-19.9 percent)

5 DN 20 PCT OR MORE (decreased by at least 20 percent)

6 NO PRIOR DEPLOY (no U.S. deployment regularly maintainedin theater previous to incident)

9 DON'T KNOW

S31 USSTST US DEPLOY IN AREA YEAR AI-ER INCIDENT (overall changein number of U.S. armed forces personnel deployed in

theater where incident occurred during year after endof incident)

Values Labels

1. 1 UP 20 PCT OR MORE (increased by at least 20 percent)

2 UP 10-19.9 PCT (increased by 10-19.9 percent)

3 UP-DN 0-9.9 PCT (increased or decreased by less than

10 percent)

4 DN 10-19.9 PCT (decreased by 10-19.9 percent)

F 5 DN 20 PCT OR MORE (decreased by at least 20 percent)

6 NO DEPLOY BEF-AF (no U.S. force deployment regularlymaintained in theater before and after incident)

9 DON'T KNOW

I.wV

-32-

Card 1

C. Types and sizes of United States armed forces units used inthe incident.

32 STNUC USE OF STRATEGIC NUCLEAR (capable) FORCES 1

Values Labels

0 NOT USED

1 USED

33 ARMYSIZ TOTAL UNIT SIZE OF ARMY GROUND FORCE 2

Values Labels

0 NONE (none used)

1 UP TO A COMPANY (no more than one company)

2 COM PLS TO BAT (more than one company, but no morethan one battalion)

3 BAT PLS TO BRIG (more than one battalion, but nomore than one brigade)

4 BRIG PLS TO DIV (more than one brigade, but no morethan one division)

5 MOR THAN DIV (more than one division)

8 USED-DK SIZE (troops used, but don't know total unitsize)

9 DK IF USED (don't know if troops used)

34 MARSIZ TOTAL UNIT SIZE OF MARINE GROUND FORCE 2

(includes units on board amphibious ships)Values and labels same as for ARMYSIZ

35 GRFOAIRL TOTAL UNIT SIZE OF GROUND FORCE AIRL(ifted) 2

Values Labels

0 NONE (no airlift of troops)

1 UP TO A COMPANY (no more than one company)

2 COM PLS TO BRIG (more than one company, but no morethan one brigade)

- 33 -

Card 1

3 MOR THAN BRIG (more than one bxigade).

8 AIRLIFT-DK SIZE (troops airlifted, but don'tknow,total unit size)

9 DK IF AIRLIFT (don't know if troops airlifted)

36 BBNUM NUMBER OF BATTLESHIPS 2

Values Labels

0 NONE (none used)

1 ONE

2 TWO

[3 THREE

4 FOUR

5 FIVE

& six

7 MOR(e) THAN SIX

8 USED-DK (don't know) NUMBER

9 DK (don't know) IF USED

37 CVNUM NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT CARRIERS 2

Values and labels same as for BBNUM

38 AMPHTYP USE OF AMPHIBIOUS SHIPS 2

Values 'Labels

0 NO AMPHB USED (no use of amphibious ships)

1 LPH, LHA OR LPD (Landing Platform Helicopter, Landing1* Helicopter Assault, or Landing Platform Dock ship used).

2 OTHER AMPHB ONLY (amphibious ship used, but not LPH,LHA or LPD)

8 USED-DK (don't know) TYPE

1 9 DK (don't know) IF USED

F'!-

-34-

Card 1

~239 SRFCCOM NUMBER OTHER MAJOR SURFACE WARSHIPS2

(includes cruiser, destroyer, frigate and escorttype ships)

Values Labels

0 NONE (no other major surface combatants used)

1 ONE

2 TWO

3 THREE battleships,aircraft carriers,

4 FOUR and amphibious shipsnot used in incident

5 FIVE

6 MOR(e) THAN FIVE

7 USED-DK (don't know) NUMBER

16 8 USED W BB CV AMP (assumed to have been present when

a battleship, aircraft carrier, or amphibious shipwas used)


40 SUBNUM NUMBER OF SUBMARINES 2

-- Values and labels same as for BBNUM

41 OTHSHIPS NUMBER OF OTHER TYPES OF SHIPS (types mentioned abovenot present) 2

Values Labels

0 NA OR NONE (not applicable or none used)

j 1 ONE

2 TWO

3 THREE

T 4 FOUR

5 FIVE

6 MOR(e) THAN FIVE

7 USED-DK (don't know) NUMBER-

m7>

1 I -35-

Card 1

8 USED-DK NUM-TYPE (ship used, but don't know numberor type)

9 DK IF USED (don't know if any or other types ofships used)

42 AFCOMAIR TOTAL UNIT SIZE AIR FORCE COMBAT AIRCR(aft) 2

Values Labels

0 NONE (none used)

1 LE THAN SQUADRON (less than one squadron)

2 SQUAD TO LE WING (squadron or larger, but less thanone wing)

3 WING OR LARGER

8 USED-DK (don't know) SIZE


43 MACOMAIR TOTAL UNIT SIZE MARINE COMBAT AIRCRAFT 2

Values and labels same as for AFCOMAIR

44 TRANSAIR TOTAL UNIT SIZE TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT 2

Values and labels same as for AFCOMAIR

45 HELOTRAN TOTAL UNIT SIZE TRANSPORT HELICOPTERS 2

(helicopters able to transport ground troops)

Values Labels

0 NONE (,'.one used)

1 LE SQUAD-COMPANY (less than one helicoptersquadron or company)

2 SQUAD-COMPANY GE (at least one helicopter

squadron or company)

8 USED-DK (don't know) SIZE


-36-

Card 1

46 RECOMAPA USE OF FIXED WING RECON-PATROL AIRCR(land-based fixed wing reconnaissance or patrolaircraft)

Values Labels

0 NONE (none used)

1 USED


47 OTHAIR UNKNOWN TYPE OF AIRCRAFT USEDValues and labels same as for RECOMAPA

48-51 NUMRESVS NUMBER OF RESERVES MOBILIZED-000'sValues: 1-9999 (multiply by 1,000 to obtain number ofreserve personnel mobilized); no labels.

52 ARMEDF COMPOSITE SIZE OF FORCES USED 3

Values Labels

1 2-3 MAJ PLS NUC (two or three major force componentsand strategic nuclear-capable units)

2 2-3 MAJ NO NUC (two or three major force components,but no strategic nuclear-capable units)

3 ONE MAJ OR NUC (one major force component or

strategic nuclear-capable unit)

4 UP TO STANDARD (one or more "standard" components--i.e.,more than a "minor" force unit, but less than one majorforce component; no strategic nuclear-capable unitsused)

5 MINOR ONLY

-37-

Card 1

D. Movement and readiness of United States armed forces used inthe incident 4

The following values and labels apply to each of the activitieslisted below:

Values Labels

0 NO

1 YES

9 DON'T KNOW

53 MOBILIZ FORCES MOBILIZED (reserve units mobilized)

54 INTERFOR FORCES DEPLOY FORWARD BETWEEN THEATERS(forces outside theater where incident occurreddeployed into that theater)

55 INTERER FORCES DEPLOY REARWARD BETWEEN THEATERS(forces inside theater where incident occurredwithdrawn from that theater)

56 INTERALI OUT OF THEATER ALERT LEVEL INCREASED(increase in level of alert of forces outside oftheater where incident occurred; scored zero ifINTERFOR was scored one)

57 INTRAFOR IN THEATER FORCES DEPLOY FORWARD(forces already in theater deployed toward locationof incident)

58 INTRARER IN THEATER FORCES DEPLOY REARWARD(forces inside theater at or close to location ofincident deployed away from that location)

59 INTRAALI IN THEATER FORCES ALERT LEVEL INCREASED(level of alert increased of forces within theaterwhere incident occurred; scored zero if INTRAFOR '1

was scored one)1I60 PLWTHDDE PLANNED WITHDRAWAL DELAYED

(of forces at or close to location of incident)

II

-38-

Card 1

I E. Activities of United States armed forces used in the incident

The following values and labels apply to each of the activitieslisted below:

Values Labels

0 NO

1 YES

9 DON'T KNOW

F - 61 PRESENCE FORCES MADE PRESENT IN OR NEAR AREA (appearance ofU.S. forces at or near location of incident;these forces did not engage in another activity)

62 FIPOVIOL FIREPOWER USED OR OTHER VIOLENT ACTION

63 GRFOEMPL EMPLACEMENT OF GROUND FORCES(in foreign nation)4 64 BLOCKADE EST(ablishment) OF SELECTIVE OR COMPLETE BLOCKADE

65 INTERPOS INTERPOSITION BETWEEN TWO (foreign) ACTORS

66 TRANSIT EXERCISE OF RIGHT OF TRANSIT

67 EXDEMO EXERCISE OR DEMONSTRATION

68 ESCORT ESCORT (foreign) ACTOR FORCES, EQUIP(ment) OR OPERATIVES

69 TROFTAR TRANSP(ort foreign) ACTOR FORCES, EQUIP(ment) OROPERATIVES

70 TRTOTAR TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT TO AN (foreign) ACTOR

71 PARESUR PATROL, RECON(naissance) OR SURVEILLANCE (as a primaryactivity)

72 VISIT VISIT TO FOREIGN NATION

73 EVACUATE EVACUATION

74 OTHERAC OTHIER ACTIVITY

39-

Card 2

4 States F. Number and types of actors in the incident besides United

1-2 NUMACTRS NUMBER (of) PRINCIPAL ACTORS IN INCIDENT (including U.S.)

Values: 1-10; no labels.

Types of foreign actors

The following values and labels apply to each of the types offoreign actors listed below:

Values Labels

0 NO

I YES

3 NATO NATO STATE (member of North Atlantic Treaty Organization)

4 OAS OAS-RIO-CHAPULTEPEC STATE (member of Organization ofAmerican States, or signatory of Inter-American Treatyof Reciprocal Assistance of 1947 or Act of Chapultepecof 1945)

5 SEATOT PAKISTAN OR THAILAND (Southeast Asian members ofSEATO; Philippines not an actor in any incident)

6 SEATOP S. VIET(nam), LAOS OR CAMBODIA (states referred toin SEATO Treaty Protocol)

7 USTREATY US BILATERAL DEF TRT STATE (state with which the UnitedStates had signed a bilateral mutual defense treaty)

8 USALCL OTHER U.S. ALLY OR CLIENT (U.S. ally or client otherthan one that would be included in above categories)

9 PRC PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA

10 USSR SOVIET UNION

11 WTO WARSAW TREATY STATE (member of Warsaw Treaty Organizationother than Soviet Union)

12 COMMSTAT OTHER COMMUNIST STATE (Communist state other than Chinaor members of WTO)

13 SOVALCL OTHER SOVIET ALLY OR CLIENT (Soviet ally or client whichwould not be included in above categories)

40 -

Card 2

14 OTHST OTHER STATE (state that would not be included inany one of above categories)

15 UNOAS UNITED NATIONS OR OAS ORGANIZ (UN or OAS organizationwas itself an actor)

16 OTHORG OTHER ORGANIZATION OR GROUP (actor other than onethat would be included in any one of above categories)

Individual actors in incident besides United States

The following values and labels apply to each of the actors listed

below:

Values Labels

0 NO

1 YES

17 ARG ARGENTINA

18 AUS AUSTRIA

19 BEL BELGIUM

20 BRA BRAZIL

21 CAM CAMBODIA

22 CHL CHILE

23 CHN PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA (same as PRC, as listed

above under "types of foreign actors")

24 CHT TAIWAN-REP OF CHINA

25 COP ZAIRE-CONGO

26 COR COSTA RICA

27 CUB CUBA

28 CYG GOVT OR GREEK COMM ON CYPRUS (Government or Greekcommunity on Cyprus)

29 CYT TURKISH COMMUNITY ON CYPRUS

30 DOM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

31 ECU ECUADOR

32 EGY EGYPT

::f ..... .. ... ... ...... .. ... .....-1 -- : .. , - -J: , ,

-41-

Card 2

33 ETH ETHIOPIA

34 FRN FRANCE

35 GME EAST GERMANY

36 GMW WEST GERMANY37 GRC GREECE

38 GUA GUATEMALA

39 HAl HAITI

40 HON HONDURAS

41 ICE ICELAND

42 IND INDIA

43 INS INDONESIA

44 IRN IRAN

45 IRQ IRAQ

46 ISR ISRAEL

47 ITA ITALY

48 JAP JAPANN.

49 JOR JORDAN

50 KEN KENYA51 KON NORTH KOREA

52 KOS SOUTH KOREA

53 KUW KUWAIT

54 LAO LAOS

55 LEB LEBANON

56 LBR LIBERIA

57 LBY LIBYA58 MAL MALAYSIA

59 MEX MEXICO

I - 42-

I Card 2

60 MOR MOROCCO

61 NIC NICARAGUA

62 NOR NORWAY

63 NTH NETHERLANDS

64 PAK PAKISTAN

65 PAN PANAMA

66 POR PORTUGAL

67 RUM RUMANIA

j 68 SAU SAUDI ARABIA

69 SPN SPAIN

70 SYR SYRIA

[ 71 TAI THAILAND

72 TAZ TANZANIA-TANGANYIKA

73 TRI TRINIDAD-TOBAGO

74 TUR TURKEY

75 UGA UGANDA

76 UNK UNITED KINGDOM

77 URU URUGUAY

k h Card 3

1 USR SOVIET UNION (same as USSR, as listed above under"types of foreign actors")

2 VEN VENEZUELA

j 3 VTN NORTH VIETNAM

[ 4 VTS SOUTH VIETNAM

5 YEM YEMEN

[ 6 YUG YUGOSLAVIA

7 ZAN ZANZIBAR[i

-43-

Card 3

8 BANI E. PAKISTAN-BENGALI INSURGENTS

9 CAMI CAMBODIA INSURGENTS

10 COPI ZAIRE-CONGO INSURGENTS

11 COSI COSTA RICA INSURGENTS

12 CUBI CUBA INSURGENTS

13 DOMI DOMINICAN REP INSURGENTS

14 ETHI ETHIOPIA INSURGENTS15 GRCI GREECE INSURGENTS

16 GUAI GUATEMALA INSURGENTS

17 HAIl HAITI INSURGENTS

18 INSI INDONESIA INSURGENTS

19 LAOI LAOS INSURGENTS

20 LEBI LEBANON INSURGENTS

21 MEXI MEXICO INSURGENTS

22 NICI NICARAGUA INSURGENTS

23 NLFI S. VIETNAM INSURGENTS

24 PAL1 PALESTINIAN INSURGENTS

25 PANI PANAMA INSURGENTS

26 PORI PORTUGAL INSURGENTS

27 TAIl THAILAND INSURGENTS

28 VENI VENEZUELA INSURGENTS

29 VIEI VIET-MINH VIETNAM INSURGENTS

30 YEMI YEMEN INSURGENTS

31 CHLM CHILE MILITARY

E 32 DOMM DOMINICAN REP MILITARY (this variable, is also assignedthe value of 2 (label: TWO SEGMENTS), denoting theparticipation of two major military factions in an incident)

-44

Card 3

33 GRCM GREECE MILITARY

jI34 GUAM GUATEMALA MILITARY

35 HAIM HAITI MILITARYI36 INSM INDONESIA MILITARY

37 JORM JORDAN MILITARY

38 LAOM LAOS MILITARY

39 LEBM LEBANON MILITARY

40 SYRM SYRIA MILITARY

41 TRIM TRINIDAD-TOBAGO MILITARY

42 VENM VENEZUELA MILITARY

43 VTSM S. VIETNAM MILITARY

44 GUYL GUYANA POLITICAL OPPOSITION

* 45 ITAL ITALY POLITICAL OPPOSITION

46 JORL JORDAN POLITICAL OPPOSITION

1 47 LAOL LAOS POLITICAL OPPOSITION

48 LEBL LEBANON POLITICAL OPPOSITION

I 49 VTSL S. VIETNAM POL(itical) OPPOSITION

1 50 CHTD TAIWAN DEMONSTRATORS

1 51 CYPD CYPRUS DEMONSTRATORS

V 52 LEBD LEBANON DEMONSTRATORS

53 PAND PANAMA DEMONSTRATORS

, 54 ARL ARAB LEAGUE

55 NATG NATO ORGANIZATION

56 OAP ORGANIZ ARAB PETRO EXPORTERS (Organization of ArabPetroleum Exporting Countries)

57 OASO ORGANIZ(ation of) AMERICAN STATES

58 UNO UNITED NATIONS ORGANIZATION

59 WAR WARSAW TREATY ORGANIZATION

-45 -

Card 4

G. Public approval of the President as surveyed by the GallupPoll (within two months before or after U.S. use of force; forthe variables in this section, a value of zero indicates datumups unavailable,except as noted)

1-2 POPRAPPR PCT NAT APPROVE PRES BEFORE USE FORCE

Values: 1-99, corresponding with percent innational poll who approved President's generalperformance in last poll prior to use of force;no labels.

3-4 POPRDISA PCT NAT DISAPPROV PRES BEFORE USE FORCEValues: 1-99, corresponding with percent innational poll who disapproved President's generalperformance in last poll prior to use of force;no labels.

5-6 POPRNOOP PCT NAT NO OPIN PRES BEFORE USE FORCEValues: 1-99, corresponding with percent innational poll who expressed no opinion aboutPresident's general performance in last pollprior to use of force; no labels.

7-9 POPRDABE DAYS BET PRIOR NAT POLL - USE FORCEValues: 1-62, corresponding with number ofdays between last national poll before use offorce and use of force; no labels.

10-11 POAFAPPR PCT NAT APPROVE PRES AFTER USE FORCEValues: 1-99, corresponding with percent innational poll who approved -President's general4performance in first poll after use of forceended; no labels.

12-13 POAFDISA PCT NAT DISAPPROV PRES AFTER USE FORCEValues: 1-99, corresponding with percent innational poll who disapproved President's generalperformance in first poll after use of forceended; no labels.

14-15 POAFNOOP PCT NAT NO OPIN PRES AFTER USE FORCE

Values: 1-99, corresponding with percent innational poll who expressed no opinion aboutPresident's general performance in first pollafter use of force ended; no labels.

16-18 POAFDABE DAYS BET END USE FORCE - NEXT NAT POLLValues: 1-62, corresponding with number of daysbetween end of use of force and next nationalpoll; no labels.

I

- 6-

Card 4

19-20 PARPRAPP PCT PAR APPROVE PRES BEFORE USE FORCEValues: 1-99, corresponding with percent inIPresident's party who approved his generalperformance in last poll prior to use of force;

no labels.

21-22 PAEPRDIS PCT PAR DISAPPROV PRES BEFORE USE FORCEValues: 1-99, corresponding with percent inPresident's party who disapproved his generalperformance in last poll prior to use of force;no labels.

23-24 PARPRNOP PCT PAR NO OPIN PRES BEFORE USE FORCEValues: 1-99, corresponding with percent inPresident's party who expressed no opinion abouthis general performance in last poll prior touse of force; no labels.

25-27 PARPRDAB DAYS BET PRIOR PAR POLL - USE FORCEValues: 1-62, corresponding with number ofdays between last party poll before use offorce and use of force; no labels.

28-29 PARAFAPP PCT PAR APPROVE PRES AFTER USE FORCEValues: 1-99, corresponding with percent inPresident's party who approved his generalperformance in first poll after use of forceended; no labels.

30-31 PARAFDIS PCT PAR DISAPPROV PRES AFTER USE FORCE3. Values: 1-99, corresponding with percent inPresident's party who disapproved his generalperformance in first poll after use of forceended; no labels.

32-33 PARAFNOP PCT PAR NO OPIN PRES AFTER USE FORCEValues: 1-99, corresponding with percent inPresident's party who expressed no opinion abouthis general performance in first poll after useof force ended; no labels.

34-36 PARAFDAB DAYS BET END USE FORCE - NEXT PAR POLLdays between end of use of force and next party

poll; no labels.

1 - 47-

[ Card 4

37-42 NYTLINES NUM LINES NYT INDEX RE SIT-PRIN ACTORValues: 1-999999 (999998 indicates an

undetermined value), corresponding with

number of lines in the New York Times Index

devoted to the principal antagonists during

the course of the incident; no labels.

I

II

-48

Footnotes:

1. Nuclear capable forces include intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs),

long range strategic bombers such as the B-36 and B-52, intermediate range

ballistic missiles (IRBMs) emplaced in Europe between 1959 and 1963,

intermediate range strategic bombers such as the B-47 and B-58, and a

number of aircraft on forward deployed aircraft carriers between 1951 and

1961 that were then included in strategic planning.

2. The terms "total unit size" and "number of" are taken to include the

cumulative size or number of all of the forces of a particular type that

were used in an incident, irrespective of whether they were operating

together or separately. Thus, for example, if two aircraft

carriers were redeployed within the Mediterranean and a third was deployed

from the western to the eastern Atlantic, the value of three was scored

for the variable CVNUM-NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT CARRIERS; or if a brigade of

Army brigade was redeployed from the United States to Europe, the value

of four (BRIG PLS TO DIV) was scored for the variable ARMYSIZ-TOTAL UNIT

SIZE OF ARMY GROUND FORCE.

3. A ma force component is defined as one of the following: (a) a ground

combat force larger than one battalion; (b) a naval force at least as large

as two aircraft carrier (or battleship) task groups; (c) a land-based combat

air force at least as large as one wing. A standard force component is

defined as one of the following: (a) a ground force larger than one company,

but not larger than one battalion; (b) one aircraft carrier (or battleship)

task group; (c) a combat air force at least the size of one squadron, but

less than one wing. A minor force component is defined as non-nuclear-capable

forces of any type which do not meet the definition of a major or standard

force component.

L 1 -1 . -_ _ IJ_ -_

1 - 49-

4. Values are scored concurrently for different movement and readiness

variables. For example, if in the same incident a battalion of Marines

II was redeployed within the theater toward where the incident occurred

jJ.l and an aircraft carrier or another Marine battalion outside of the

theater was placed on an increased level of alert, the value one was

scored for the variables INTRAFOR - IN THEATER FORCES DEPLOY FORWARD and

INTERALI-OUT OF THEATER ALERT LEVEL INCREASED.

5. Values are scored concurrently for different activities. For example, if

-. in the same incident a naval force engaged in a special exercise, Army

ground troops were transported to a foreign nation, and Air Force transport

aircraft carried U.S. arms to a foreign actor, the value one was scored

- for the variables EXDEMO-EXERCISE OR DEMONSTRATION, GRFOEMPL-EMPLACEMENT

OF GROUND FORCE, and TRTOTAR-TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT TO AN ACTOR.

6. One of two criteria had to be satisfied in order for an actor to be

considered a participant in an incident: (a) it had to have been a specific

target of U.S. decision-makers in the latter's use of the armed forces--

i.e., U.S. policy-makers must have desired that the actor perform or not

perform a specific act or, more subtly, be impressed in a particular fashion;

or (b) the actor had to play a special role in determining the outcome of

the incident. Mere interest in an incident or essentially inconsequential

behavior on the part of an actor was not considered enough to warrant

inclusion.

I.

7 7

Ii

~PART V

Data File

II

. .. . ..4

-51-

The data collected for the 207 variables that were described in Part

IV are presented below. These data also exist on computer tape. Information

about how to acquire copies of the computer tape is presented in Part I.

Both in the pages that follow and on the computer tape, the data are

distributed over four lines (cards) for each case; hence the data file for the

226 cases comprises a total of 904 lines (cards). The applicable format

statement, as derived from Part IV, is as follows:

(2F3.0, 312.0, F3.0, 3F2.0,

- F3.0, 2F2.0, 19F1.0, F4.0, 23FI.0/

F2.0, 75FI.O/59F1.O/

f3F2.0, F3.0, 3F2.0, F3.0, 3F2.0,

F3.0, 3F2.0, F3.0, F6.O)

i This format statement is afto inelded in the computer tape control file.

For ease in using the data file as it iv presented balow, lines are

placed between the data related to each different case, and line numbers are

jincluded at the left margin. Users my recall that the first variable on the

first line (columns 1-3) for each case is the case's sequence number in the

;1 data file (variable name: CASNUM), which corresponds with the listing of

cases presented in Part III.

iii";i

-!I

r -52-

C> 0 C, ) 0 0

OC0 00 0 0C) 0 0 D0 L00 0 > 0 -0 -0 - JC)0 J

0000 0 0 0>0 0 0Q 0000 00 CC. 00C>00 00 00 D 0)00

000 00 00 00 000 0 C)00 C 000) C 00 00.0 0 C)00 00 C- 0

0 0 0 C- 0 00 0 0o0 )0 o0000 000 000 0 00 Co0 C0 ) d00 000 0L.)00

0 000) C 000 000 00 C)0 100 000C. 0 0 o'-.>0000 '000 00 0 00 C-)00 '-00 '-0 -00 000

000000000000000 0000 000 0~ o000000 000 0000 00 0- p0 00 D000 000

00C- 00 0C. 00 )0 00 00 C 0 000 00 00 00 00 00 100 00 :p0 0

00 C0 00 00: 0) 00 000 D00 -, - 0 0C-0 00 00 0 '0 00 000 000- 0 00o t- 0

000 00C)0 00 '.?-00 000 00)0 O o coo oO 00000 000 000 0-.00 000 000 0~ o - (>0 0 o. 000C.)00 0 C)0 0 o (00c0 000 00 00 o L-,0 C- oo 0 000 C-000i 00i 00>0 (000 000 -00 OoO 0 0C0 0 o0C.-7j)000C0 0 00 000 0 000 t0 C C ) ic,00 C~'O o N -oQt0 0

00 C) )NOO0 - 0..0 00 o O 0'0 0 o 0 (0. 000 0 0 C)'(-0C'-0 (0 C (000 jC0)- 0 0 C.)0 (00 (00 000 00O

0.0 0i 00 00 C-) 00 0 C.) C) N 0 0 00 C.) N 0000 000 0-0 0000 00 00 - -00 000 -.?C)00

C-' ) 00 0 00 00C -)Ci (00 0(.0000 0 0- v- 00 C.) 0 C00000000 00 0 C000(C.) '0 0 0 00 0 C)0C 0 C0) 0 00 )'0 N (000 0 j0'00 C)0 C.)C-> 0) 0 0'c0 C- 00 0 '00 0 l0 0 '000 0C>O 0 r00tro(000 CoOO C i0 0 0001000 00000' 10 10C) -0001000010000

00 0C)0 0 00 0 C) ooC -. )0 0 D00co 000 000 COO-0 0J0 cij _ c C)0C)c C0C.00CC)0m000C)C) o 0C)C)% 0 p -0 o 0 ~0 C. 0C- - 0C~ 0C 0 tj0 d - tjr-t) )0 XT .) 0 Q0 C')0 0 0 '.) - 00I - 000 0 0 0

(0c.pc)'-.o00c.N 0 oo ' -sNC. 00. c 1q 00 '-000 o-00k '-0-0 00D'0 00Co00O 000 o.2- 00ot- c oor0Jooo=?-ooC)-moo 0 =J-0 mo

N0 i0 .0 C)0 0 0 0 00 010 00 (00 N0 0 0 C-0 .0 0 L)0 000'-0 O'000 000"-000 000 00000'.) 000 00'-0-00 C-)00 OrC) 1,00 0'-00 0100 CN00 00(00 N 00o-)000 000 000 000 0000 0 'oco-'-0 '-00 '000

mooo-o) MOO~)0- 0 0\0 oo-Z 000(0MOO0 M00'- oo'-0 -C.)' 00d om 0 0a)-oo moo- N-C) MOO-'- Cooo-Clo7A ooko0O' OOO mo0'-Lf00N 0 0dMC n00C)- 0 0-0 (0) 0N -)0Il)C. n0 0 (Or0 LOo- -) C- .o L 0=- 0- C.) oo-00c00 (Y)C- o0 0 0 \,o0 0t 000C 00(M 0 U D0 C) r0010C) .z-C)0 0 0 0

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0d0 C00 0 0 0 0 00 00 00 0.)0 C00 '00

o C'-'-00 .) I -)0 0 oN -0 0 0 L-,C) -i0 () L) Oo 0 0 C., -) .0 ='-00 0

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x 0 0 (000. C . (0 C)0_ (-)000 =r0 d0 (- . 0 0 0 -TC 0 0 -. (0 0 0 -NOOC 0 0 t- >C. - t- C. A0C o 0- 0- InQC 0(0 0 0 - 0

0000000000000Xt ZTO00 00 0 0 WOO 0L Qoo m-- OO oo \oC0000000 .) C0)00 000 0 0 0 00 C.)O OO C.)cd- 0

'-=0r 00 t 0'0' N =02 1( CO w' =N (1 100 - r C; C) o l =- (0.2 100 --. C0) t-0V000C- or% 00000 0000 000 0 0) (00 0 0 0n - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Y)L>0J

Li* A p 0 o 0p A0000 00 00 00 k-

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0 C) C,0 00 C 0 C.)0 0oC) 0 '-00 100 10 0 -

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00 00 00 00C 100 00 0~l0 100 00 C 00) .00 00 00 00 00 00 00.. L>)00 -

00 0 0 L: j 00C C 0 0 C'0 C 0 ) C)t)0 00 .: 10 L)0 (-00 0 C)0

00 0 00 0; C 00 p00 c. 000 0C- (tL.-00 -000 00000 0 C - 0C)0 00 000 ;OO0 kjO0 o 000: 000'-00>t L.00 000 '-0 0 L) 000 tVO0 ' >C- '-0L)0 '-0 0

0 0 0 0 0 00pC -)0 )000 100d 0.0 0 0 C000 0 00>M 0 T0 0 U-) ~0o --.T C c)o M 0 _- t0 In0 0 O _T0 - 0 000(.>0 000 000-) 00c, :, 00 (D I)C 0 . L)0 100 0 (000. 000

00 0 0 tj 0 0t0 00 C 0C0 00 C. 00 00 000 0 00t- 00 L 0I 0 000 00000 00 00 00 00 00- 0 o 00 00

00 -0 0C)0C)0 000L. 0-0 0-0 0 0 0'o 0 0- 0000 0'0 000 C 00 000 00 0) 0 000

000 000 00 0 000 Q00 0o' C) 00 0 0000 000 0 00 1000 c,0 000 000 000 '-00 c000 0 0 0 oOtOV'0 -)C)C) 0 0 t.) 100 000: .)u0 0 ) L: - - 00

'-0)(- () 00Li0000 0 (OD -d -)o.10 . (00o)(:)(- o N o L-) 00c 0 u D00 0 00C)0 Cp t- T -:,C. 0 00~ o 0 0000 (-) Q 00130 0 C) C.

0 0 0 NO0 - 00 0 C cm0 0 i.;p C, 0 0 000 00 L) N0 L0 . j 00 0 L. 0 0 0 NPC) 0 0 t- L OL 00L)0 0 -)(j0 0 ('0 0 0 00

000 '--'--0 00'00 000 100C 0 00 1000) O00 ' 00

300 N ciC400 0 CJoO 0 00 1 000 000 0--0 ('400 N(Do00000000000000(- jo- m00 1 0000 50000 0 0000000(3I

00 .)C, 0L)0 00 :0 M00. C 0 00 M00 0 0 ' p--0 (0 0 )00 0 ()0 00'.00 1- C N 00 0' - O .)0 '-00 L: I-00 k.. 0 0 I 0 ' - 0 0 '-00C.') C0(.p0 moo t- 0 tl'oo 0 U- j0 0I - ~) t l 0 t)000 In 00 0 -L. 000 (r) L )0 0 .;00

%jo Of- 000 OL. '-0 0 MOOk 000')- OoO'--'oo 000 p 000

N 00 00 0-T0 00 o0-, = ->C T 0 0 -r00 jL)0 00(;p(.) =L 0 I 0 0C) CO -j CoO 0 -) Coo l 000 ("40 oL0 0 t..:, 0 000 00

Q0''-OC0 0ON0): ('400 C)O~0 0)0 f0)0 to0 '0 0000, 00 0 pC) 0 ( -)(-)C L)C. - t) .)LI 00.)0 000,L. 000I 000-T 00

-T L-) -) 0 T L C,0 -70 0 --N00tfl'.000 '.Coo --1' 0 t-)0 I O -0.0 t:) O - 1)L.0 0 L)0 =' dL.

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t- 00 C,- L)' -- Q Ci N L -00 :T - C) -0 -0 t- 00 00 (0L-t) CO- 0 0 O 0 N

N J0 0 o-T 0 M 0O' - (0ouLfi 0 L)00-0.> -0 0 OoO)'-OLoOC: '00C L)0 0000 C) 0 00 001- 00 '-00 00p 0. 0 00.)C

In 0 0 (N) :rQ- t, 0 (-joCO N 40(10 =rt'0' 0000L. 0 o t- pc) 00u0 tC0 -4 0 00'.00)- )( 0 - 0 (-)- -, t-- (00-M0 000) OL) = 0 C, 00 =(00 '-00

00- IN(OO -: N -T 000 00 N.0 In 00. C-() 00 C) 0 0 00

TN(j -CIO I I0..) (-j 0- N L.) I- M t - 00u'L '- M Li N0 t" --r O C) N N C. 0-T tt'C C' In -C CO

-54-

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L) C' C.)00 0 0'- Cp Cp 0 0 LI 0 0 L C.

L>U 0 0 0 Lj 0 00 0) 0- 0 1100 t0) (0>0 0D 00 0-0 00 0 00 C>

00 t00 00 0i )0 00 00 0 0 00 0100 0 00L 0 t-)0 L-0 00C 0 00 -0 L d

0D0 - 0 C 0 00 00 -jC) #D0 00 C 00 00 L00 -K) 00d C) 0. 0 00> ( 00 00 000 0 00 0 00 00 00 00 00 0

0 0 00 00 )C. 00 00 0 C0D0L) 0?L: -C 00 0 00 00. ( 0) 0 00 0L 0 00 0 0 0 0LD0 00 00 Lp0 (j0

0. 00p 00L. -0 V-0 00 0- 0 00 (.) 000, 00 0D 00 0.p LkL. 0 00 0,0 00; L 00C.

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000 00p 00 C 'J00) 0 000 0 0 000 0 0 C- C'LJooO 00 .) 00000 0 L)0 t00 -p 00 '-0 L')00 00) -00 C: JL.) 7) CJL.

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000 00~t 00)=o 00 -00 00I'00 00 0 000'CfO-' 0100 c 000- 00 i ) C a. 00(")')-L" .O- )L)) O L 0 0 0 0 Uo 0 000 0'-0 )0 -T L. '-000 T(. -C) 0'0 - )-C -0 L-) 0 UN0 0 L.p - L0 0 nLd D L -0 0

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-55-

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0 00) 0 0) 00 00 C.0 .?0 0000 0 Oi00 0 0 0 c0 00

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000 000 _;4 . - . 3 -000 a) 00 0 00 L;00)0 000;( (. 0 L0 0 C,0t000 00L 0 0. 00C0Q 3' C ; a 000 0 %0 0 a 0 '-0-. . m0 c 000, 0 00000 000 C00 m0 c;O (MOO -o k-J0 t.00;-0 .000-- N c": 0 000U ;

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'-00 cc '-00 00- "o -00 mo0o Oco C').,oo '-0 NO-0

000 000C. = T%;L0 0 C0-Ta 0 000 07O00m 0 000 000'LN-Q (NUQ

0L)0CI nL, - C0 0000 00 - InO (00, Q0 000 n t.0 00 U (MOLO

00LA 0(0'-'l 00.000'-0 0(M 00N 00N 000 00

C,0 Q L; cO 0C 0 (.1 k-;0CML 00ML 00 N cM .; 0C C.; Q o 0 NLAONL t j OLA' U0 LAC -- OO IL (AO OC '-(l -- ( 0 C OzL; LO Ic C (OL 0 L ; -

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-T U L) -ofC, N - N 0 to t0o (\ t ~0 I ~00N ~0 C U)L;C I -QN C MLAj 100

t. 0 C0 t 0 0C E00y)t r l 0 0 -00 0 0 00 00L . )r - Dt -) 0

00t C- - 9;Q;U% to u 0 00r t-0 0 -0 7%0 0 0 N c C oo N - Q 0 MC %DN -)'-0

o0Q'- N O' Q0( 0 Cy' CMO01-0 00 0AI tLo0 ' U t_ %.~0 .tjUC~j , (C'-00 M-0-~ N M O M O OOmit-,L ;-IL LLtc o-'-kO MtoO'-'-00 t----X0 UNMCLL'-D0 0 kD-0 0U % 0 0 0 nU -0 0 0 .DML '- \ '00

OCO'0' '-0'_j - '-- V--o'-'-00'(N00- ' 00- ) t; -- 00Q'-00'- C,4L Y)Lm * oou oou '- 0. 0 Y)~ (-. m-c '-0L '-00

t.- 0 ; N - L.) Lo cl 1:1O 00 Cl. 0 0) 0 0.U LA 0 0 LA NO r- 0. (AN In A . -

'- Q 0 0 0 00 00 0Q 0; 00UCI0 L: CO r- 0 0t- N 00L. CO (Y) L o ra- - 0 01 LA%'- 00 10 k;k_; L\.0 00 Lo - .L 00 l IN QC 0 0 .

CM oLN 0c =M~ (\M 0 Nr\ 0 4mN\ 0 0M '-, CJi mCO 0\ u N OL

c .;0 k., L; C 00 0 0 0 000 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0

(\i m.- tAo "o - CO e7\ U'r-M CO.2 (y) . CMr ("i 0=N l L0 t- 0 c.0U cmI '-C 1UN~ 0QC

tnt U~i%(-)IOZOOZOC04, .O OD.t t- OCOtcoroot.

U -74-

C C -C: ; CLoC) -CC- C

C; C t. C ' CC

CC ; C ; C ; CC L C)C

CC; C-CL; C-C C; C-C

'-C '-C; C.; L - ;C -

0 C; C,-C - CC: C-uC; '- CC; C k C -; (-; C-C t.;C;LC LCL. C;CC tC; -C; L;C Q c-

k.C C -D t C- L; t C C -- U C; C;C:L;C.C '-C. Q)-C CC ; U--C C;C:; .C;:CD- L;C DL;-C-T COC-C; X fC; - uC-C

CC-Q~~k_ CCC L;'- L-;; ;-CC-C CCCII. tC;Z. u- C '- C- 0 uCL

0-; CCC C-- C-C CCCQ CCC: 00

C-C; CC CYic C L" ;C( L; C : 0 C 0C-C

ONL. 0 0' CM N CC % k-; C; C; 0L .S C- C- c- MC C00L

In; CC C-CInt CC; V)UCC I C CU

CCC; C-C; C-CC; c-c-C C-; -

CcC QCL uC CC;C CC- ;CC-CC CC- CCC LCC C-C;C(-I C;CL-CC - tCC C-C- CCC C-C-C L) ' (.

C-C-C;- CCC L;NC C;' (L;;;L('C;C

It- CC C' C t; (jE- CC C;I C u0 - 0CC(CC) I - 1

u 0 C;C0-C ' L-CL '-C C C) C-C .;C '-C-C ;NCCC t;CCC:0CCCCCt;C-Q

C-C --r C ; C C- . -C C C-CC- UC o-C C-- 'C- C C NCC;

C-) C;) C- t ; In C y)C C C c C C: C; C. 0 C C - : C) C. CCC- C-' Ct-CC C.CY -C;_ -C; C;C- (

0.-N C.C CO kC 1- (- C- C kA 0C k- t_; LC C_;r

CC;C L . - C, - O C Cc- C.t rCC'CCm CC =;.1 L- L It_-x uCIIC-C OC-C QCC

r N (7\CCt- C C tC* C;t- - C-.Ct L

C - t- C-C L.,t. UCC C\J-C CCC-; t,-C- CC) CC C;C(Y M-C C-CC-UUtLLLU0 C; C- M. C; tC N X.0 C- O 'L .; C; k.O L C

NoJCC( NCC- CC' -(OC - C;C- - - U'C-CLCC0 -x J'.0C- MVC- OCT n I.,;(;

I., C. C'- (-C L C, C) Ct-, . C C -C: L '-C C C- .; CI C; C;

t-C:j C;0 XT- Cn C t' C - C C \ C-I = C- CC C' - C C t- - C Cy -

0 ' ' -COCC T ' - C ( ' Cr i o i 0 ) r 0 C C C - C 0 ( 3 %c y

'4C C '.0 NC C; ' N Co C ( ; ;NC ;C

r. . . .!

I

PART VI

Sources of Data

I-

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Si- - - . - -~

-76-

No single source was able to provide all of the data pertinent to an

individual incident. Data for individual variables also were typically

obtained from more than one source. Thus multiple sources were used, for

example, in order to obtain the data for all of the variables listed above

in Part IV concerning the size, composition, movement, readiness and

activities of U.S. armed forces. Sources used to obtain data for more than

one variable are presented below in section "A. General Sources."

A single source was used to obtain data for a small number of variables.

These sources and variables are listed below in section "B. Other Sources."

Data for variables not listed in section B were obtained from those sources

listed in section A.

Data were gathered by research assistants working under the supervision

of the authors of the study. Judgments and interpretations about the

relevance and validity of data were made jointly by the authors.

4,

- 77 -

A. General SourcesIU.S. Government

A large number of offices within the United States Government were

contacted in the search for data. Below are the principal organizations from

which documents were obtained.

- The Department of the Air Force The Department of the Air ForceAir University, Albert F. Simpson Office of the Chief of StaffHistorical Research Center Office of Air Force History;(Maxwell AFB, Ala.);

The Department of the Army The Department of the ArmyArmy War College Library, John F. Kennedy School ofStrategic Studies Institute Counterinsurgency(Carlisle Barracks, Pa.); (Ft. Bragg, N.C.);

The Department of the Army The Department of DefenseOffice of the Chief of Joint Chiefs of StaffMilitary History Joint SecretariatHistorical Services Division; Documents Division;

The Department of Defense The Department of the NavyOffice of the Comptroller Naval Historical CenterHistorical Staff; Naval History Division;

The Department of the Navy The Department of StateU.S. Marine Corps Headquarters Bureau of Public AffairsDirector of Marine Corps Historical Office;History and Museums;

The National ArchivesGeneral Archives Division.

The materials obtained from these and other sources are as fcllows:

-78-

U.S. Congress. House Foreign Affairs Committee. Background Information onthe Use of United States Armed Forces in Foreign Countries. 9. Congress, 2session, 1970.

__. Joint Armed Services Committees. CVAN-70 Aircraft Carrier. Hearing.91 Congress, 2 session, 1970, pp. 163-65. (letter from Admiral T. H. Moorer,Chief of Naval Operations, to Senator Walter F. Mondale, September 6, 1969,including "Summary of Wars/Near Wars Since 1946").

Senate Foreign Relations Committee. War Powers Legislation. 93Congress, 1 session, 1973.

U.S. Department of Defense. "Berlin Since World War II: A Chronology" (DoDFact Sheet 2-G). January 2, 1959,

. The Pentagon Papers: The Defense Department History of United StatesDecisionmaking on Vietnam (Gravel Edition). Boston: Beacon Press, 1971,

i . -III.

•Joint Chiefs of Staff. Joint Secretariat. Historical Division. Military. Actions or Campaigns Undertaken by the United States Which Were Not Supported by

a Formal Declaration of War by the Congress. July 30, 1959.

Office of the Assistant Secretary for Manpower and Reserve Affairs."Reserve Calls to Active Federal Service Since World War II to Date." 197?.

. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs. "Press Briefings"(irregular).

U.S. Department of State. Bureau of Public Affairs. Historical Office. ArmedActions Taken by the United States Without a Declaration of War; 1789-1967.Research Project No. 806A, August, 1967.

._ Embassy, Havana, Cuba. The Frustrated Plot to Invade the DominicanRepublic, Summer 1947. Report No. 4434, prepared by V. Lansing Collins, Jr.,October 17, 1947.

U.S. Department of the Air Force. "Current News" (daily compendium of pressreports).

Air Forces in Europe. Headquarters U.S. Air Forces in Europe, History(monthly;February 1944-June 1948, inclusive).

* _. Historical Data, U.S. Air Forces in Europe, I January-30 June,1950. Circa 1950.

___._Office of Information Services. Historical Division. A ShortHistory of the United States Air Forces in Europe, 1949-1954, Rev. ed. March20, 1954.

._ Air Materiel Command. United States Air Force Postwar Chronology, 1September 1945-15 November 1950. Circa 1951.

L

I _ 79-V!_ _ Caribbean Air Command. History, Caribbean Air Command (irregular;

!1946-55, not inclusive).

. Fifth Air Force. History of the Fifth Air Force (semi-annual; 1January 1949-24 June 1950; 1 July 1953-30 June 1955, inclusive).

_ . Office of Information Services. Historical Division. Fifth

Air Force in Formosa, 25 January 1955-1 June 1955. Circa 1955.

• Office of Air Force History. "Incidents Reported Between United'Statesand Communist Bloc Nations." Circa 1963.

_. Pacific Air Forces. Historical Division. Directorate of Information.

The United States Air Force in the Pacific. February 1969.

Seventeenth Air Force. History, 17th Air Force (irregular; 1953-1955,not inclusive).

__ .* Seventh Air Force. Pacific Air Command (7th Air Force) Annual History.1947.

.__ Strategic Air Command. History, Strategic Air Command, Vol. I (irregular;1 January 1948-30 June 1950, inclusive).

o . The Development of the Strategic Air Command 1940-1973. September19, 1974.

Third Air Force. Historical Data, Headquarters, Third Air Force(irregular; May 1951 - December 1954, inclusive).

. Thirteenth Air Force. Semi-Annual History (semi-annual; 1955, inclusive).

* . 13th Air Force Operational History 1 July 1955-31 December 1955,Vol. II. Circa 1956.

• Twelfth Air Force. Twelfth Air Force History (semi-annual; 1948-54, notinclusive). I

._ U.S. Air Force Europe. Office of History. Historical Highlights: United

States Air Forces in Europe, 1954-1973, prepared by R. Bruce Harley. USAFEHistorical Monograph Series, No. 4, 1974.

. 317th Troop Carrier Wing. Historical Data, 317th Troop Carrier Wing,Medium (irregular; 1952-53, 1958, not inclusive).

464th Troop Carrier Wing. History of the 464th Troop Carrier Wing (M)(semi-annual; 1957-58, not inclusive).

* 513th Troop Carrier Group (Special). Operation Vittles: HistoricalAnalysis of Problems Involved at Group Level. N.d.

• 1602d Air Transport Wing and 322d Air Division. History of the 1602d

Air Transport Wing and 322d Air Division (MATS) (annual?; 1964, not inclusive).

%I

--.

*1I - 80-

___• 1608th Air Transport Wing. History of the 1608th Air Transport Wing(H) (semi-annual; 1964, inclusive).

* 1611th Air Transport Wing. History of the 1611th Air Transport Wing(semi-annual; 1954-64, not inclusive).

U.S. Department of the Army. Air Corps. Fifth Air Force. Annual History,5th Air Force (1946-47, Volume I and annexes, inclusive).

• •. Twelfth Air Force. Twelfth Air Force History (irregular; 1946-47,not incl-usive)•

Army War College. Strategic Studies Institute. An Analysis of InternationalCrises and Army Involvement: Historical Appraisal, 1945-1974 , Final Report. 1975.

. Eighth Army. Eighth U.S. Army Chronology (semi-annual; 1970-72, 1976,not inclusive).

._ Eighty-second Airborne Division. Eighty-second Airborne Division, Summaryof Activities (annual;1963-75, not inclusive).

4 . Fifth Infantry Division (Mechanized). Annual Historical Supplements(1965-1970, inclusive).

. First Armored Division. Annual History (1963-73, not inclusive)First Cavalry Division. Annual History (1963-75, not inclusive).

•_ . First Cavalry Unit History, 1952-1954. Circa 1955.

First Infantry Division. First Infantry Division (Mechanized) andFort Riley History, Annual Supplement (1963-64, 1970-73, inclusive).

. Fourth Infantry Division. Annual History (1963-71, not inclusive). 1

. Ninth Corps, Ninth Corps Unit History, 1940-1963. Circa 1964.i . Ninth Infantry Division. Annual History (1963-73, not inclusive).

. Office of the Chief of Military History. U.S. Army Expansion and Readiness,! 6J-J6_., prepared by Robert W. Coakley et al. N.d.

U.S. Defense Policies from World War II (Army Historical Series). N.d. A

• Second Armored Diyision. Annual Htorical Sunqaries (9.65-73, nqt nclusye).,

• Second Infantry Division. Annual History (1963-73, not inclusive).

o Southern Command. Headquarters, U.S. Army Forces Southern Conmand:Annual Report of Major Activities (annual; 1967-73, not inclusive).

Third Army. History of the United States Third Army 1918-1962 (andannual supplements; 1963-66,inclusive).

18th Airborne Corps. Annual Historical Supplement (1963-72, not inclusive).

24th Infantry Division. History (and annual supplements; 1963-75, notinclusive).

S- 81 -

I._ 25th Infantry Division. Tropic Lightning, I October 1941-10 October 1966.I Circa 1967.

•r 101st Airborne Division. Annual History (1963-73, not inclusive).

. . History of the 101st Airborne Division, 1942-1964. Circa 1965.

• 193d Infantry Brigade. Annual History (1963-73, not inclusive).

_ 350th Infantry Regiment. 350th Infantry in Occuption with the 88th "BlueDevil" Division in Italy. N.d.

U.S. Department of the Navy. Atlantic Command and Fleet. Fleet History (irregular;1 April 1949-31 March 1950, inclusive).

" Atlantic Fleet. Annual Report, Commander in Chief, U.S. Atlantic Fleet,Fiscal Year 1955. Circa 1955.

__ _ . CINCLANTFLT, Annual Report, Fiscal Year 1965. Circa 1965.

COMSOLANT Command History (annual;1958-73, inclusive).

___. .Report of the Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Atlantic Fleet (irregular;1951-54, not inclusive).

.__._U.S. Atlantic Fleet Command History (annual;1958-1961, not inclusive).

. . U.S. Atlantic Fleet, Second Fleet Historical Report (annual; 1959-61, 1964, 1966-71, inclusive).

• , U.S. Atlantic Fleet, Second Task Fleet Command Narrative, 1 October1946-30 September 1947. Circa 1947.

__ . . South Atlantic Force. U.S. Atlantic Fleet, South Atlantic Force,Command Narrative. 1946.

Caribbean Sea Frontier. Command Historical Report, Caribbean Sea Frontierj (annual; 1959-72, inclusive).

__ . Commander, Carrier Air Group Twelve. Memorandum to Commander, Air Force,U.S. Pacific Fleet (contains: "Operational Report of CVG-12 Deployed for theperiod of 3 March 1954-15 September 1954"). Circa 1954.

Commander, Carrier Division Five. Memorandum to Commander, Air Force,U.S. Pacific Fleet (contains: "Carrier Division Training During Western PacificDeployment, Comments on"). N.d.

, Commander, Guantanamo. Disorder at Port au Prince and Action Taken byThis Command. January 15, 1946.

82 :1._ Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Mediterranean. Report to Commander, U.S.

Naval Forces in Europe, Visit to Beirut, Lebanon, December 11, 1946. Circa 1946.

._ . Task Force 125, Exercises, August 23-27 and September 5, 1946;Report to Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe. Circa 1946.

. Director of Fleet Operations Division, Rear Admiral J.C. Donaldson,Jr., Memorandum to Director of Naval History and Curator for the Navy Department,August 20, 1969.

___. Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean. Command History (irregular; 1July 1947-1 July 1953, inclusive).

First Fleet. Commander First Fleet Command Historical Report (irregular;1946-59, 1964-65, inclusive).

First Task Fleet. Commander, First Task Fleet, United States Pacific11 Fleet, Command Narrative, 1 October 1946-30 September 1947. Circa 1947.

Middle East Force. Commander, Middle East Force, Command History (annual;1949-62, 1966, 1969-70, inclusive).

Commander, Middle East Force; Report of Operations and Conditionsof Command, 1 July 1959-18 February 1960. Circa 1960.

__• Naval Attache, Ankara, Turkey. International Relations, Visit of U.S.Naval Vessels, Intelligence Report. December 1, 1946.

Naval Forces, Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean. U.S. Naval Forces,Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean (irregular; 1 April 1947-1 July 1953, inclusive).

-___• Naval Historical Center. Operational Archives. Chronology of Naval

Events, 1960-1976 (continuing), prepared by Barbara A. Gilmore.

[ i . "Short of War" Documentation, Special List (nos. 1 and 2).

Secretary of the Navy, John 11. Chaffee. Letter to Senator Clifford P.Case, September 5, 1969 (contains: "Unclassified Summary of Attack Carrier

* Support of U.S. Foreign Policy Since the Korean War"; and "Classified Summaryof Attack Carrier Support of U.S. Foreign Policy Since the Korean War").

. Seventh Fleet. Command History (annual; 1946-64, inclusive).

Sixth Fleet. History of the Sixth Fleet (5 May 1959 and annual supplements;

1959-67, not inclusive).

S/_ . Southern Command. Command Historical Report (annual?; 1965, 1968, inclusive).

. U.S. Marine Corps Headquarters. Historical Division. A Brief History of

te-Frst Marines. 1968.

. A Brief History of the 2d Marines. 1962.

S . -. A Brief History of the 3d Marines. 1968.

- . -. A Brief History of the 4th Marines. 1970.

I/

S- 83-

___•_• . A Brief History of the 5th Marines. 1968.

. • . A Brief History of the 9th Marines. 1967.

] • . . A Brief History of the llth Marines. 1968.

T. •. • A Brief History of the 12th Marines. 1972.

•_ • . A Concise History of the United States Marine Corps 1775-1969, prepared by Capt. William D. Parker, USMC (Ret.). 1970.

• •___. . A Chronology of the United States Marine Corps (VolumesII-IV, 1935-1969). 1971.

•_ ._ . Marines in Lebanon, 1958. 1966.

- . . _ _. The United States Marines in North China, 1945-1949, Rev.ed. 1968.

_ _ • Historical Branch. Operations, Deployments, and Shows of Forceby U.S. Marines Outside Continental Limits U.S. in Peacetime, 1800-1958. N.d.

Newspaper and Journal Chronologies

Africa Report (monthly). "News in Brief" (title varies).

Africa Research Bulletin ("Political, Social and Cultural" edition; monthly),"Political Developments with Nations Overseas".

Asian Recorder (weekly).

Cahiers de l'Orient Contemporain (quarterly). "Le Moyen Orient et en PolitiqueInternationale".

Current History (monthly). "Chronology".

Middle East Journal (quarterly). "Chronology".

New York Times Index (annual). Subheadings (e.g., 1976): Airplanes, AmericanNations, Armament, Europe, Far East, Indian Ocean Area, International Relations,Mediterranean Area, Middle East, NATO, Ships and Shipping, U.S. Armament and

- Defense.

U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings (annual Naval Review issue). "Chronology',

a

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Miscellaneous

Byely, Col. B. et. al. Marxism-Leninism on War and Army (A Soviet View). Moscow:Progress Publisher, 1972(contains "Chronology of Wars, Armed Uprisings andMilitary Conflicts," pp. 327-35).

SCable, James. Gunboat Diplomacy. London: International Institute of StrategicStudies, 1971.

Cady, Richard H. U.S. Naval Operations in Low Level Warfare. Detroit: Bendix

Corporation, BSR Report 2453, December 1968.

Cady, Richard and William Prince. Political Conflicts, 1944-1966 (data collection).

Ann Arbor: Inter-University Consortium for Political Research, 1974.

IIChronology of the-Sea Service (1775-1959). Washington: ALL HANDS, n.d.

Cooney, David M. A, Chronology of the U.S. Navy: 1775-1965. New York: FranklinWatts, 1965.

Emerson, J. Terry."War Powers Legislation," in Congressional Record, Volume 118,Part 4, February 15, 1972, pp. 3872-3890.

George, Alexander and Richard Smoke. Deterrence in American Foreign Policy:

Theory and Practice. New York: Columbia, 1974.

Greaves, Lt. Col. Fielding Lewis. "'Peace' In Our Time". New York Times Magazine.

6 (April 14, 1963), 16 ff.

Haas, Ernest B. et. al. Conflict Management by International Organizations.Morristown, N.J.: General Learning Press, 1972.

Hiner, Lou, Jr. "There, Is. No Peace:. 18 ye 4p, 57 Wars.,v in Congre,5sio-na1 Reo-rd,

Daily Edition, May 14, 1963, pp. A3007-A3009.

Naval and Maritime Chronology, Compiled from Ten Years of Naval Review. Annapolis:Naval Institute Press, 1973.

Polmar, Norman. Aircraft Carriers: A Graphic History of Carrier Aviation andIts Influence on World Events. New York: Doubleday, 1969.

Rapport, Leonard and Arthur Northwood, Jr. Rendezvous with Destiny: A Historyof the 101st Airborne Division. Greenville, Texas: 101st Division Association,1965.

Richardson, B. P. et. al. An Analysis of Recent Conflicts. Arlington, Virginia:Center for Naval Analyses, 1970.

Tillema, Herbert K. Appeal to Force: American Military Intervention in the Eraof Containment. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1973.

Xydis, Stephen G. "The Genesis of the Sixth Fleet." U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings,84 (August, 1958), pp. 41-50.

I

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B. Other Sources

MONTHBEG, DAYBEG, YEARBEG, NUMDAYS, NYTLINES; data obtained from New York TimesIndex (also listed above under General Sources).

CHSZFORP, USSTST; data obtained from U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on ArmedServices. Authorizing Appropriations for Fiscal Year 1976 and July-September1976 Transition Period for Military Procurement, Research, and Development..

I |94 Congress, 1 session, 1975, p. 118, and Fiscal Year 1975 Authorization forI Military Procurement, Research and Development . .. , Part 4: Manpower, 93

Congress, 2 session, 1974, pp. 1072-78. U.S. Department of Defense, Officeof the Assistant Secretary/Comptroller, Directorate for Information Operations.U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense forPublic Affairs, "Fact Sheet: U.S. Military Strength-Worldwide," March 11, 1976and March 28, 1977. Data obtained from these sources comprise one continuingseries.

POPRAPPR to PARAFDAB (i.e., all variables in Part III, section G, exceptNYTLINES); data obtained from George H. Gallup, Ed., The Gallup Poll, VolumesI-III (Random House, 1972); The Gallup Opinion Index, Report No. 56 (February1970), pp. 8-16, and succeeding supplements. Data obtained from these sourcescomprise one continuing series.

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