Upload
at420
View
218
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
1/46
! THE TRIANGLE PAPERS: 1
T O WA R D S A R E N O VAT E D
WORLD MONETARY SYSTEM
Motoo Kaji Richard N. Cooper Claudio Segr
PROFESSOR PROVOST BANKERTokyo University Yale University Paris
The Trilateral Commission
A Private American-European-Japanese
Initiative on Matters of Common Concern
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
2/46
This Report has been prepared for the Trilateral Commission and
is published under its auspices. It was discussed at the Trilateral
Executive Committee meeting, held in Tokyo on October 22-23,
1973, and the Executive Committee in its communique agreed
that the report of the task force on monetary problems is an im-
portant contribution and urged members of the Commission and
the broader public to consider its proposals. The authors, who are
experts from Western Europe, Japan, and North America, have
been free to present their own views. The Commission will utilize
the Report in making any proposals or recommendations of its
own. It is making the Report available for wider distribution as a
contribution to informed discussion and handling of the issues
treated.
The Trilateral Commission was formed in 1973 by private cit-
izens of Western Europe, Japan, and North America to foster
closer cooperation among these three regions on common prob-
lems. It seeks to improve public understanding of such problems.
to support proposals for handling them jointly, and to nurture
habits and practices of working together among these regions.
THE TRILATERAL COMMISSION
c/o European Community
Institute for
University Studies
Rue de Trves 47
1040 Brussels, Belgium
345 East 46th Street
New York, N. Y. 10017
c/o Japan Center for
International Exchange
8-4-3, Akasaka
Minato-ku
Tokyo, Japan
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
3/46
!!"!#$%
'()*
(+,-.))*
/*,(012)
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
4/46
! "! #$ % && '( "! ! ( ) * ) %+$ , - ( '! (&' ! ( .' !$ , / &0 "('((&'('1&23 -*$,('!)(- !"!&('4(($
56 , 5 7 8$6 ) 9 5 ::$(;$$' % $-($ 9(( "'(')'9(($
6! $ , 7(('!
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
5/46
& ('' B &' !&& '' " >( ! )' $ 5( 8$ 6&&(&'$
''!&&&''!=( ! " ! B ' (=' ' * 8 ." 6! H "! (-('!)(&('('''''I
5!; 6$>;!J;44""-'(6(#$%&'()*,?("+!,)*7
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
6/46
0+,*/(-10-,-0*/(-03
$ '' &&F / ;44"0 H =:$
$ 6' $ 6& $ B H((&'!"!'!=:$
$ $ 6 & B - E H ; 44 " (=$
:$ 8( " ((( &'!$
$ & " ( ( ( & ' !
-&$
%$ 6' $ -E9&!C&( =(&'!-('!-&%$
*$ >' '' &&'('=;44")-&=#$
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
7/46
-!5&!">(I$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $7
6& $ (I7)'
) - 7 ( $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$9
6& $ 7 ( 8 ' )'( ) &( $$$$$$$$$$$$13
6 & $ ; ( 9' 5 -! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$17
$;'()!B$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$17$ 5 6 ' ! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$20
$ ; ' ( $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$23
:$9((&($$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ 25
$'-$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$27
6 & 2$ 5 " ) - $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$28
6& 2$ ) ' $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$32
$ 9 C( " $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$32$6 ' > 9C ( ;' ( $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$33
$ - = ( ' $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$34
:$ - '' ( 9 ( (! " $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$35
$? ' )' (!$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$36
''6$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ 39
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
8/46
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
9/46
!" !"# !$%&'&&(()
!(! ' ' ((
&&!' &(&(&=(''!('&$
(('! && '&(&('!!$
''('I
$ & '( &! B &( & ' ' && ( C(L
$ 6 (' ' & ! = ' (! 0 ! ' ' A ! ''! &&' =L
$ 6 ( ' ! ' > =(!='(&('=&(&'L
$ 6'C( ' '!& ='(($>L
$ 9' ( (' (!>(='!!((((!(((&'($
&& '' ' "
&
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
10/46
& '& ' !1 '!!$!'I
$ 6 ' ( C(" (!&(C(
L $ 9' ' '' 4 = ' ( '
'&('L $ 6' ( ' " ! =
' !> C( ( ' ' ''C(L
$ ( ' ' && 9' ' "B( ('''(L
$ -' ' ' (& ( &
" '(' '&($
4
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
11/46
*+* *$!***!","!* * &' ( ' (! C=(! ' $ &' ('' &'! &' ( & &(' ( ((!B( =A&'(!$! & ' &( & &' &=H'H (L ! (=
''!$& ' ' &'! ! & & '''$
( &' ( ' (= '& 'B( & ' '!(' '(!$?' =& '( ( (( ! ! (' !'' &"(&'!($
& ' ' ' ' ( ( (''!(L (B&''''((((&$
' ! -!M ' ' ' ( ' ' =(' ' = && &&& (&'((!$
' ! -! " "'! '' ' ' %#F $ &( ' &($ ; NH :: ' ('''!>/>0 &&' ( $ $-$ ' ' H'H ' ((! & ' A! ' ( ! (' ' ! ' ! !$ ; (( ''O!'O& ''
%
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
12/46
( (! &( ( ' %#F$ '((!= ' ' '! ( ( ' (' ! ' ' '! =
(&$ &'!'("'''' ' A !' ' !! $ (' ( ' ' ! ' '! (& ; H ' ! ( ='(&$
0! *
(
+ + 6 !
*789:&$
&=!!''!"*-(' $-$'''(''! ' ! $ - 7( * ' ' (''! &!( & && ( !!(' B & (& '!;- ''!((&C( $ ; "!
-& C( *! ' (=(! - " & ! ' ''>!*$(C=((!!!'' &'C((*''!& ''! &( '' D((''&=(!((!'$
-& * 6 ! (
' & & ='!!$ '&(( ''' ( '!'(=& ' (' ( !$! '"8-&*$
' !!( &( ' ' (( ' ' $ & (' ( ' &'''(''!(
5
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
13/46
& ($!!('(C ( '! ((! &' L ('(((''!(' '
'''$H & ( ' !
1! L3 ( " ' ' &(&''4' ( $ ! ( =''!'!$ !(=((&(!'' B& (& (( ' ( B (( ( ' ' " ('" ((&' (! ( ((
&' (' &(&=( ( ' ( & =( ( $ ! ' A ' ((! & ' ' ( = ' ' ( (& ' (' && ' ((! ="$
' ' ( (!( '! ( ' ! !$
(( (($ ; !' '!(= ' ! !$ (! && && =('''&(&( ' (& ' ' ' ' ( ' " ((' ' & =(' $ ,!'' (&(((''&$
&( (' 6 ( N ''1'3!!& ($> !'' (' ! ( & ( (( C( C ( =( '! ( ' ' ' ( ' ' ' (( ( =6&'$?C(6
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
14/46
(' &'''!=$
?' ! ( ' (( &' &(' '! ' 9
' ' ' (( C ( ( ''!'' &&'$((''''!( ! '' (!(&'((=('"C("'!('!!$
H &&'&!&&(O&( 6 ( ' &( ( $ '
!&'!!(! &( ( ( ( '! ( &' ' "!"('' 6$H' &&'"' & ' !!''!(&'(!'' ( !((('! $' ' ' !-!& =(&''!&=6'($
!
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
15/46
**+*!!*****''('!(('= & ' $ , & C (= ' ( ' & ' ( & & ( $ (&'!( ((!&& ! ( B( & ! C ' (B('& (!(!$ ! & '! ' ( (( &' ('
( ' &( ' 4 &' (' (=" !"'!(! (!$ (= ( ! ! ' (( $ H (((& ('! "&''(($ ;!('4 '(( '( ! ( (($ ;''(&&&&($
7( " ((' ! '!((' $ 5 !'( (((& (= (( (' ((('&&'('$ "( (' $ >'! &'! ' &=&($ ! =( ' $H!( ' ' & =''! &' (' ( ((& (=
&' (' $ ;!'(''(&'('B$
>' (((C(= ' ! ! ' O ( O & 1( & '3 ( (( &'($ - ' ='!'&BC(((C&$ ' ' $ - ' ' ' &( (( ' ' C=
#
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
16/46
&( !$ ($
( ' ( ' ( ('! ! ((
' (( ' (& ' $ - ' (& ' B (' (( & $ B ( ((( (( & $ - ' ' (&' ''! (&' ((''('!(( !'$.& (='(&'$
5 ( 1&(' &'3
-'''L ((&(''!(-( =( ! &' ( ! F -&("&!(' "$- & &4 ((( ' 'F ' &(' & ' ( ' ( ! ( $ ;( = &'! ( ! ' ) ?' ' C!'(!&('
((!($. ( ( & & ((
(C(''&&(&' (B'!!$H'''& (4C(B ' B ' ( & ' & '! C( ( "'! ''! =& ( '! & '! C ' ( ( C=( ''
'( ' (!$ ' ' = '((A('C' !C( B! ' *$ ! ' C( ' ( '((' ' ( ' "'! ='('C'!C($
('!(4 C( &&'!A'(' ' ( ' C!
6
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
17/46
! '!' ( & ( $ = 9& 6! " (' " (!!(( ( & ( C( '(
($ ' &'' ( & 'C ' ! ' ' ' 'C ' ! 9&$ =' B( '! '( &&( !$
' ( '! ((' O ( (( '' ((( ' L &' ( '(!&('!&' '(&!B=
( ( L ' C C& ' ' ( &('&!&'L ' ' ( & '! ' ' =!!$7(' (= ' ''! ( ' &( & " * ' ' (!A&(' ''$
&(''!C&'!1
'(3 $-$(('& ' ! ! &=& ( (' ( & =(C& (' ' '!( ' '&$ 7('& =& ' &(' '! $-$ '( &! ( '! ' ! !$ 7('(& C((&' ''= ' ' ' ' B
!C&'"C&''( ('&($
H' !('' &=&("((' $;'=' ('' (& '! & ((' (( ' ! !$ &!&('! (&((=
7
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
18/46
'! ( (( ( &( B( (=(&'(!$ ' (( &'(!$( ''&'!&=
(&'!$
8
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
19/46
***+,*!7&&&((' =' (( A & ' !!$ (= (' &&&I
$ '(&!BL
$ (' !L
$ &''(L
:$ (( &( (' ' !'((&'(L
$ '&( !!$
.)9:
!((( ( ' '!( ( ( F '=( ' &!$ ( '(
( !F (! & C( =( C& ' (!F ( (=(B($ 9C(C&'' !&(''!'(&! ' &(&' =' !((!( !(C=( C& & '( &! - %$ 7( C& ( '' !&(''!&'(&!$ ((((( ((!("&=
( ' ' '& (( '( &! &=(' ( " (( A ' '(&!$
'!(O(='(' ('((& ( C ' ( ( ! ( O '( '( &! ! ( '( &!$
&
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
20/46
( ' ! ! ' &! '( ! & '($
; H -! ( ' '! (
':#N ' *' (=(C(B$ !"&(= ( C( B ' = ((!&( ('$!' C &' A '' ($ "('(&' $ ;! 1' A ' 3 ( C( ( ( && ! '& '
&('$'C(B & ' (" ( ( ('(' & ' A C&( $ (( C((''' (!A(($ +0**!!0!
( 0 ! ! ! 0 !
$ 6C( '' &(C=&( ' ' ! ((& ! ( !
('(&&&"(($ !(C((=
'(((''!' "= ' ' 4 ' ((B( ' ((&' ( $ ; ! ' ' ' ' $ ( C=('' (!"&'(' '''(($
(' "'(&!B
!((((& ''! ( (( B( '' ' ( ' '( &! & ( (( (C(A(( '=( &!$ ;'! &" &=* ! '! ( C( ! ( '$ ! ! ' (( L ' ( && ' C(
4
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
21/46
(4 &&&&!&''($
( ( C( ' (!'(('&B
('"&(!& ='!>'' (' (=' '! 'A ' & '&$ ( C( ( ' ! (!$ (((' "( ! ' (!$ > (! '( &! ( ( =' ' ' ( &! ( $ > (! '( &! &' ( ' =(' (&! (=
' ' L ( ' & & ('''(O(& ' ' ((!&'( ( $ &' ( ( ! ' ' ( ! ' ' ( &&& B ( '' ( ' &'!$
C('''' '! ' '! ! " ( &&'! $
5' ' &( (' ' $ > ( C( & ' (('$ ''&'= '(('& !((' ' &' ! C( $ >'! ' C( " ((' &(' ( !& C( & ' (($&=&&&'(!(''' '!C=( B &&& &' (! !(' '
(!($& '! && '! (&A C=
( 'C ' !$ 1& '3 ! ( ((! (' C ' & ((! &! !&&!$"!! & ' &' 'C ' !$ ! C( & ' (' (&'( '& (!( 'C=
%
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
22/46
' !$ 5' C( " ' A =('C($H&&&( '&' !!&'"'"$
!.9;
7#F'!%#N'!!('!'!-''( $ &(!(&(''!'(& ' A ! ' =(('$ 5'(''/!'((!0&'(((!(!&(' & (=
' "'! ( $ 9C(''''%#F'!*#F'&=('!'''-&('75('''((((*$!&'(-&('75/-750 & & (! $ -75 && '! ( & A ( ' ' ' ' =A!$ !C(& ' ' (( (' '' ' ( ' -75 C
' '&($-'C&((!&!(!'-&('75$
' ( &'(&-75-75 &$ ! ; < 0 & !* "5.; <
* * 0 !
"5. ; < 0
$ H ' ' -75 ( = & (! (( '
' ' ! &($ H( " =0> $ $ ! &&' (&'(' = ' ( ' !>$ H'= A ( '! ('(&!( ( (($
H ('( (($ >
!5
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
23/46
'& '''! ! ! ' & & ' ' ' (( '$ !==! & ' ! " C( ((!$H' &&( =
&' 1A ((3 &&( (($
H ' ( ' ( (( !& ' ( (' ($!'& '& $ 9' '!( ( (' = ' ( (! C=(" '& ' "&'('!' '! ! & ( (($ '
(A ' ' ! '-75 (' "'('(''$
&' ( ' ' ''' A!=&' ) ! ! 0 0 ! * !
2! *!$
( ' !A $ 6'' ! - ( ( '''(!'$'
(' ' '' ' A !( ' ('' (& ('!' ('(&!&'$ !(' ( '' ''(A&('!('&$
(( ($ !((! ! ( ( ' (A ((! "&( &' &( $('((
( ( (( &'(!$ "! B !!C&( ( ' ( (!( ' $ ( ((A(C('=( &! B $ ' ' '! (( ' = B (!'C&( B ( (( &'( C C =
!
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
24/46
(( C((''!(=(&' $ H " ( ( ( =( '$ ! ** 0!*!0 ?!
2 ! ( ! 0 * * ! 0 ? !
! *! !
! $ ''''!= C( ' ! ' &$ ; !' '!((' !(!!'(''(B ! ' " ( ( =($
A'!&& ' "'(''A!&'&=(!' '( ' '!(-75( '! ('! '&($ &&'&B ((!!B &' ' (!$ H ((& &(
&' &('' $ 6 ='!'''''C&$' ''!'-75&(''
&($ (! '(( ( (& ! ( (( ( ('!''!C&((('($9' ' " '& ( " (( ''! '$ ' &(( ' ' A ! '& =(('((''!$ (('' '!('('' 'A!'!&('
'&(='(''('($ (('''!''A!((''!(''$"&=( ' ! '' ( ( $ >' '! ( ' ! ' '((A ' ='& ($ H ' &' " ( '('(($
!!
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
25/46
5' '& ' '&( '' B( '! ! & ( B((&'C&($H&'!&&' '! ( ' '& (
"&'($ H (' '&((&' B( $ ! ' ' ( "'P ''!'$
#.9
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
26/46
L A "$ &' ! ' ' '' ' ! ((! ' & ' '! ( ((=($; !' (&('!
'$ * ! ! *
2!! * !
0 ! * 0 ! ( ?! $ H' ' ( ' ! (' &'! ' & ( ' "&(' &' '(( ' ''4&'=' ! > " ' ' ('"('"$
(' !''A("'! ! ( ! A C( !$ '''!( & &! (! ' &! > ' (($ ' &&(&&=&!''$
!&(!''&(&''' (( '( &! ( $ ; (
' '! & ' = !& $ H ( ' = ( '( &! ( ' (' ( ' ' $ ; ' '! ' ' '' ( ! !& (((! = ('(!(!C&=($ '' ' & (!F '( &! & (!''&!>!=
(!! ' '( ' >A ('( ( "((&$
( & & ' & ( &! = ( = ' (! ( ' ( ' ! ( ' ( ' = =
!6
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
27/46
= C 4 (' '!'& $( '&'!('= &!&($ 4&! ' ' ' &! '
A' B&(' '(! A&' '&!&!$ !'('!':#!C=&' 4''!B=&($
-(('!'&(''(-=( ! ' ' ' ' & $ ; ; ' ' & ' '( '((((?"
- ( &! '! $ - &' ( ' ( ' ! ' ' '$ ' '&'(!((!$RH' '!B( (& ' (' '('' ='&'&(( >('!'( ! & (' $ ' ' '(&((!("'
! &' ( ! C( ( '=== ( ' ' ( ( ( ('''!'$
6.(99
9 & ' ' B = ' ( ' ' &' ((&( ( ' " ' ( '!$ (' '&!=&( ' ' ( ' (( &'(!$(('((&'(!&(' ' ' (!' (!$ ' ! ( &(( ' ( ('((&'('&& (!((((&'((!A$
!7
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
28/46
( '& (( !&' (!$ H ('! ' & (!&!!&'(! ' &'!((&' ''(!! &(!
( &'! ( (&' '$ . ! '( ( && ! &'(!$ ' F ( & ( ! !( & ( C&'$ & & ' ! &'(! ! ( (($ &!(! & !( !'(& $ ( ' ( &( ' '! ' $
''(''!=
' ' &! ' &' (!$ 9C( 'C' ! & '' & (! ' ' ( $ 6' (&' & ' ! ( ' & ' ' (=$;' !( ! (' =(''"'$ &'('C(&(C' ' ( ' ((=
''! ('$ +0*! ! !
0 6 ! &( ( (( (! ( $ & (' * * 0 * ! *
2 ! 2 !
' ' ' ( & ' ! ('&'(!'C'!
! ( ' ! &' (! '! !& ( ' ( ' ( ! &'(! '(!'$H(4 ' 'C' (' &'(! ( ! &'(! '' 'C &(((!"'!(!(!$
!8
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
29/46
7.(0 0 * ! ! 0 0 * *
0 * !
*#!$ ; > ! '( &! B (&' & ( ' A("'! ( ' ' ' ('!&&'(!"'($
((&' && 17& 3 = ' 6 ! & & =( ! =(' ' & &'( ('!>$!' ' C ! && B &( ' ' =='=('!('!> $ ' 4 L ''( &( ' &('(!$
) & ' ! > ('&('((( ('''( &! && & ' ! '
(' ' ' A !&& '($
!&
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
30/46
*+*#*"*"* *H(A( ' '=!!A("'!' ' (TH& ' ! ''" ' " $ H & ' '! "= & ' $ ('A' =! " &( '$ ; ( ' $ ( (( " ' ' ' $ H &'!''B((1'3 =
!&''(*((&'";H!T
H";H&!= ! ' &( ($ H ' ' "= ! ( C( '! C$ , & &(C( ' '!1 ' 3(( !(' " ( ' $ !' "=$ H' !& =
& ( ( A("'!$ H (A(&'!(!&$" ' ' ( ! ' '! (! (! ( (($ -( ' ' & = '' ' $ ; ' & ' $-'' C( " (L '"' (($
" ' =* 1'3 C =('' B( !& '& A ' (!F ' &! ' ' ' ( ( ' ' ((&'' ' (!$-&C(!' (( ( ( (( ! ((! !&(''!'"'!('''
!4
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
31/46
? " - ( ' ( =(!'''((($/ ( ( ' '( ' ' = ' (( &'& ' '! (' $ ;
(''!'!'='&('!((!$0(' C(!"&'( & '= '!'' ((! ( !'' !&!('('&' ('((((3 ( ( ! ! B ( ' ' ' C ! ' (( ( = ( ( ! ' & $ . & C( ( & ( ' ' & ( ' ( $
&' ' (( '&= (' '!(&(=(!C($ !' "'!"&&( ((!($!!!C("( C( $ ; C( ( ''! = ( ! " ! (
C( ' $ ! '' C(" ( && '' ' '! (($ ((&('' = & (! & ( $ !! ' " C( " C( ' (A ' (( C(" $ (! &&(= ((!'&('&(&' &'! C& $ (! ' 4
&'! ( ='( (!' & ( ' & ( ! '((!$('"&( = ' ! ( &( &! ( (& C("$ ;!& ('"&'((C(= ( ' '$ ' &( '(' ( ' B( ( =
!%
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
32/46
( ' &' (!$ '& ' !! (( '!!(&'!$
&' ( ' (& ' '
'!( & (& &'' $ & = (' '&( ' =(B(&( N (&' B ! ( "&( '(=( C( $ H B &$ &'!= ' ' &&$ H & (' ' ( &('! !
!'(!&'&'!$H''&' (
' (' ' B (( '( ( ' $ ' &!&'! ( '! & $ (( ''= ' (' ' ' ' '= '('&(''!( ( ( ' ! ' & ( ( & & ' ' B
( '(!$ ( & ( ' ' ! '! ((' $ 6' (&' '! &' ((! ( & ' ! &(''!'(('('$
" $ C! (( (C("!(=!(((!(('' $ '&(''' ((
''!= ! '& ' ! &' ('''!(($
" ' ((' ( '' & ' (( '' $ '' '' ((( ('! B ! &&'$ ' =' ! ( ' '
#5
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
33/46
13'&((('(( &' (((C(&(=(((((''(($ ' (! '=( =
'!!(! '( ( '' ' ' $ 7&*=*( ! ! ''! ' '! " &( ( ' ' '(!=( ' '$
#
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
34/46
+******* '' "' ! ''' !!&&'!$!'&('(( '&$C&( '! * A (='(!''!((&(' '$ H'" & & ' =
!$ ' ( ' ' ! ( (! ( ' " & (& ( ('=("&'($H'"(!I
$ (C("L
$ (''''(L
$ '='('L
:$ (('=((!"L$ '&'(!$
.
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
35/46
&( C( ' !&('&''$
H ' &' 1= 3 ( =(!(&((&$
H&& ' && '! & =* ;' &' '! ( (' " ( C( ' C(" && &= $;& '('&'!''( ' "F ( ( (( ' C=("$
!.9
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
36/46
'''($4'A((&'!'$-$&'($
C( ( '((& && =& ! '
('!&&C(&C'(&!&= (( ((! ' A ! $
8 '' ' ' '( ' ' ! '' ''' '&''! ' ' A !$ ; ' 1 =3(' ''!( " &!=('!$ (' " ! >((&(('
('A!($
#.0"/9 ''$(>=' 5'' &' U*' ' '!*OCU' ' '((!O =( U ' ' ( ( ( ! ' !$ -( "'' ' ' 4 ( !& ( ' ' ( (= ! ( ! & & & ( (!$ > ( (' '
#6
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
37/46
'''( !'! 9& 6!$ ''!>'== =(' !(& '=!$
! ( &( ' ' C( " ( ' '! & $ ( ' (' ' (' = ( (!((&!!=B !(!&((''(!'(!$
6.0
((!" (' '!! ' & ($ ! =(& ! $ ;( ((!" ' !& ( &' ( O ' A' (='!(' !(&' $ =((!" & ( & = ' " !( ( '! '( ='4'('&($
& ' ! ='(&'"$
( ' ' &( =( (!" ( =(!(''&' (L('' ' &''!=(' ' V((!" (( (' (('''(($ ( =" !
(= &&' =(' "'! ( (& & ( & " &( '= (' '& &!('&"!$
H' ((!" ' (!&(($;'' ='('!''! 0 ? 2! 0 !!
#7
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
38/46
*?0$ ( ' ''& $ '(' " ' ( B '! (&= !(''!""& (&=(=
(! " ' &' ! ' &'( ' ' ! '( ' ' ' =A '( !&(' '! ( "!$ ( ' ( '! &!('(' &( ( " ( !& " ( B (' &' ' ' =( (! ' =($
7.19)
&('"'' && ' & ($ H '! ( ' ' (!B(('(($ 9'(' &(''(' '! ( ( '( = & (&' ( &( $ =
'" ''! ' ' (' !'''' ( ( ' '!' ( (! B ' (=("&'!'(!$
, ! !&(' '' !$ ' &'! ( ('(('$ + 0 * $ ! ! 0? * *
! 0 ? *
$ -(''A&& (%+= & (' & ' ( ''$-''&"&('!='''($(!&('&'&!('$ =('''&&('B((=( ! ' " ' (
("''&(((($
#8
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
39/46
(' ' '' A !(&(!&(&(' &(=" ' & ($ ;! ! (' " ' '! '$'&" =
A' ' ' ! &( ' (! !(&(&&$H' 1(&' 3 (' " ' ' ' & (( ' & '& ($ ('(A'I'U''(''('& '! ( & " $ ?' ' ' &= ( ''! ! ( ' ( &' &( ' "-75=('&(((!6!$- ' '
( ' ( ! ! & ( & ' C(('&((' ' ' ' ' ' & ( $ ?' ''('&&''( ( ' (( ! # &( ' =&&C('$
& " &((('!!("('=& ! ( '' '
(=( '"B =&('''$
#&
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
40/46
#4
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
41/46
;@*0778AB+-0
?(1-(=??(-0( 110.-/(-
=/1-1+1
,0+(
))W$H$')7$ C)*
!?''D*)*7#6;$D!5*96$("' +$)' ?H$;''/
5'';''5"/0!
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
42/46
('$7+*1!97-"$$ ,'!7$7'$9C*+?> #0
W)("9$,! (!H''$,"1 ',("(!*-"$,!
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
43/46
)W?'')>2()69&6=!);)5'?65&69&
6!$$W;(;L)!2Y'=
>(;6&!7(;9Z=6(";'6(''7'!L)8 =
?''!
';99(=6'67(->8'-(()' =A
6'7(6-(()'(!967?6')')((6&-(!-!44(A>();A))!;)'7'6>(9'((!;;!7((>)>('-((!-5!?67'&,'ZWC)9&6!!-;
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
44/46
9'?!L)
;7(!,`$?$-9=67J!'-
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
45/46
-[>")!8-(8?).6&,>\L
>(-,6;""!'(5!()-"
8/8/2019 1973-TTC-Triangle Papers 1 - Towards a Renovated World Monetary System
46/46
(8"!)b&
(-"7(85(('!9(("-"6>B;"(