1967-1990Unexpected Consequences

1979 Camp David1979 Invasion of Afghanistan

1980 – 88 Iran Iraq War1990 Gulf War

1990 End of the Cold War

1967 War

• Collapse of faith in Pan Arabism and Arab leaders creates new problems.

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1dbAFH_GVE&spfreload=10 (this is not an unbaised film, but the archival footage in :50-1:30 is worth seeing, as is the 7:50-9:00 overview of regional leaders.

In the wake of the 1967 War Israel

gained territory in Syria (Golan

Heights), Jordan (West

Bank) and Egypt (Gaza strip and

the Sinai)

Post 1967- Political CrisisRise of Authoritarian Rulers

• Collapse in popularity of Region’s leaders with defeat of 1967 causes a crisis of political legitimacy and growing reliance on military led governments (Syria, Egypt, Libya, Iraq)

• Cold War system allows rulers to exploit aid from US/USSR. Little international attention to human rights.

• By the end of the 1970s, the region was spending between 13 and 15 percent of its gross national product for the military, compared with 8.3 percent for the Warsaw Pact countries, the next highest. [2]

• Source: “Arms Sales and Militarization of the middle East” http://www.merip.org/mer/mer112/arms-sales-militarization-middle-east

Post 1967 Soft Authoritarianism also

• Rentier Economies – Governments whose revenues are not negotiated with the population (oil revenues, international aid)

• Middle Eastern governments also maintained legitimacy through social welfare—health, education, food subsidies…

1967 – Also saw Crisis of legitimacy for the UN

• Resolution 242 (General Assembly resolution directing Israel to withdraw from occupied territory) never enforced

• Video Clip of King Jordan at the UN, 1967 (from minute :50) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5-p87lP-Y8

Destabilizing Refugees

This is a 2003 map of UN Registered refugees, most with origins in the 1967 war. Many from 1967 fled to Jordan, challenging the British imposed monarchy of King Husseing. Others fled to Lebanon, creating a competition for land and contributing to the civil war in the 1970s. Others crowded into the already crowded Gaza strip.

Aftermath of 1967-- Loss of legitimacy leads to Rise of Non State Actors

State – Sponsored Terrorism/Non State Actors possible within the Cold War

The PLO certainly not the only terrorist group of the era. (The IRA, The FALN (Puerto Rico), FARC (Colombia), Red Brigade, Shining Path…

Many drew support from Cold War superpowers intent on promoting their own goals

(just as the US armed groups in the 1980s– the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan, Contras in Nicaragua)

Next major transformative event? 1973 War and Oil Price Hike

New Regional Leadership

Labor migration another

consequence of the Oil

Boom

The rise in oil prices contributes to another crisis in the Middle East

1979 Camp David TreatySinai returned to Egypt in return for

peace treaty with Israel

Americans think of this treaty as a success, but over the long term it made the situation more unstable.

Camp David locks Egypt and Israel into military/economic partnership with the U.S.

The Arab World felt Egypt had betrayed the Palestinian Arab people,

Sadat Assassinated 1981

Another Consequence of Camp David? Israeli Invasion of Lebanon, 1982

The goal was to expel or eliminate the Palestinian threat along the northern border, but soon the invasion reached Beirut. The PLO moved to Tunisia, but the civil war in Lebanon left noone in charge and it took Israel years to extricate itself and led to two unexpected results:

A peace movement in Israel and Hezbollah.

ABC newscasts: From minute 5:00-7:00. link below

1979 the Soviet Union invades Afghanistan, US support for a resistance

movement based on Islam (The Mujahedeen) continues proxy wars of

the Cold War era.

1990 Gulf War – 2 different lessons

Two different Views

End of Cold War? 1990

• Leftist Opposition Groups Completely Discredited• International Aid funds disappear or are

redirected to Europe• Neoliberal Economics encourage privatization,

end to subsidies• Arms deluge in the region (both from Iran-Iraq

war, Afghanistan, arms sales to the Mideast)• Anger at Local regimes for failing to handle 1990

crisis