1960-1964 - MIT OpenCourseWare · PPBS Escalation ladder Special forces Strategic triadStrategic triad SSBN/SLBM LTBT Wars of nationalWars of national Counter-insurgency Cost-effectiveness

17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security

PolicyPolicy 11

19601960--19641964


PolicyPolicy 22

TermsTerms

Damage limitationDamage limitationFinite deterrenceFinite deterrence

DIADIAEMTEMTHotHot--LineLine

Special forcesSpecial forcesEscalation ladderEscalation ladderPPBSPPBS

LTBTLTBTSSBN/SLBMSSBN/SLBMStrategic triadStrategic triad

CostCost--effectivenesseffectivenessCounterCounter--insurgencyinsurgencyWars of nationalWars of national

liberationliberation

2 ½ war strategy2 ½ war strategySystems analysisSystems analysisPA&EPA&E

Assured destructionAssured destructionCounterCounter--value (city)value (city)

targetingtargetingCounterCounter--force targetingforce targeting


PolicyPolicy 33

Key Shifts in National SecurityKey Shifts in National Security

PolicyPolicy

Flexible ResponseFlexible Response

–– Creating new options for defense & deterrenceCreating new options for defense & deterrence ––symmetrysymmetry

–– general purpose force for escalation controlgeneral purpose force for escalation control

–– special forces for counterspecial forces for counter--insurgencyinsurgency

PPBS/Systems AnalysisPPBS/Systems Analysis

–– New approach to defense budgeting andNew approach to defense budgeting and managementmanagement

–– Focus on missions not servicesFocus on missions not services

Strategic Triad & Assured DestructionStrategic Triad & Assured Destruction

–– systematic evolution of US SNFsystematic evolution of US SNF


PolicyPolicy 44

Flexible ResponseFlexible Response

Nuclear weapons do not solve all national security problemsNuclear weapons do not solve all national security problems –– matching force to missionmatching force to mission

–– Rebuild conventional forcesRebuild conventional forces Gen Max. Taylor = Special Military Advisor to Pres. KennedyGen Max. Taylor = Special Military Advisor to Pres. Kennedy –– 19621962--1964: Chair JCS1964: Chair JCS

–– 19641964--1967;1967; AmbAmb. To S. Vietnam. To S. Vietnam

CounterCounter--insurgency & guerrilla warinsurgency & guerrilla war –– jungle warfare schools in Panama and Ft. Bragg, NCjungle warfare schools in Panama and Ft. Bragg, NC

–– to train US and foreign forcesto train US and foreign forces

–– countercounter--insurgencyinsurgency

Conflict control (escalation control)Conflict control (escalation control) –– signaling, bargaining with military forcessignaling, bargaining with military forces

–– matching means with goalsmatching means with goals

–– limited war (limited war (SchellingSchelling & game theory)& game theory)

2 ½ war strategy2 ½ war strategy –– 1 Europe/Soviet Union1 Europe/Soviet Union

–– 1 PRC1 PRC

–– ½ elsewhere½ elsewhere


PolicyPolicy 55

Systems Analysis/PPBSSystems Analysis/PPBS

Goal:Goal: break old institutional & specialbreak old institutional & specialinterest control over defenseinterest control over defense allocations & resourcesallocations & resources

–– Increase civilian control over defenseIncrease civilian control over defense spending & weapons acquisitionspending & weapons acquisition

Analyze military requirements andAnalyze military requirements andcosts simultaneouslycosts simultaneously

Explicit consideration of alternativeExplicit consideration of alternativemeans of accomplishing a missionmeans of accomplishing a mission


PolicyPolicy 66

Strategic Doctrine IStrategic Doctrine I

Damage LimitationDamage Limitation

–– Counterforce TargetingCounterforce Targeting

Strategic Force TargetingStrategic Force Targeting

–– Active DefenseActive Defense

ABMABM

Air DefenseAir Defense

–– Passive DefensePassive Defense

Civil DefenseCivil Defense


PolicyPolicy 77

Counterforce MissionCounterforce Mission

Number of Warheads per TargetNumber of Warheads per Target (95% probability of kill)(95% probability of kill)

YieldYieldCEPCEP

88232336361 mile1 mile

226699.5 miles.5 miles

111111.1 miles.1 miles

5Mt5Mt1Mt1Mt500kt500kt

* Assumes target hardness = 300 psi


PolicyPolicy 88

NikeNike--X ABMX ABM

Nuclear antiNuclear anti--missilesmissiles

ExoExo--atmosphere interceptatmosphere intercept

Atmospheric interceptAtmospheric intercept


PolicyPolicy 99

Strategic Doctrine IIStrategic Doctrine II

Assured DestructionAssured Destruction

–– Deterrence via secure second strike capabilityDeterrence via secure second strike capability

City Targeting (counter value targeting)City Targeting (counter value targeting)

Strategic triadStrategic triad

–– How Much is Enough?How Much is Enough?


PolicyPolicy 1010

Lethal Area for a 14kt Nuclear BlastLethal Area for a 14kt Nuclear Blast

HELP!


PolicyPolicy 1111

Lethal Area for a 200kt NuclearLethal Area for a 200kt Nuclear

BlastBlast

HELP!


PolicyPolicy 1212

Lethal Area for a 1mt Nuclear BlastLethal Area for a 1mt Nuclear Blast

HELP!


PolicyPolicy 1313

Lethal Effects Against SoftLethal Effects Against Soft

TargetsTargets

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 3

Yield (MT)

Leth

al

Area

(sq

mi.

)

area

EMT=EMT=66 y 2/3y 2/3

21 654


PolicyPolicy 1414

Assured DestructionAssured Destruction

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 100 500 1000 1500

Equivalent Megatons

% o

f T

arg

et

Ty

pe

D e

str

oy

ed

Population

Industry


PolicyPolicy 1515

Triad SensitivityTriad Sensitivity

Probability AnalysisProbability Analysis


PolicyPolicy 1616

Strategic TriadStrategic Triad

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Nu

mb

er

o f

W

ea

po

ns

A B

Scenario

SNDVs Needed to Kill 400 Targets 95% Confidence

SLBM

ICBM

Bomber

DC


PolicyPolicy 1717

Strategic BalanceStrategic Balance --19611961

<375<37518001800WeaponsWeapons

210210600600BombersBombers

150 SR150 SR--SLBMsSLBMs4848SLBMsSLBMs

55100100ICBMsICBMs

Soviet UnionSoviet UnionUSUS


PolicyPolicy 1818

US & Soviet Strategic ForcesUS & Soviet Strategic Forces

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Warh

ead

s

US

USSR


PolicyPolicy 1919

EventsEvents

French AFrench A--bombbomb (1960)(1960)

Congo CrisisCongo Crisis (1960)(1960)

U2 Shoot DownU2 Shoot Down (1960)(1960)

Bay of PigsBay of Pigs (4/1961)(4/1961)

VietnamVietnam (1961)(1961)

Berlin WallBerlin Wall (8/61)(8/61)

Cuban Missile CrisisCuban Missile Crisis (1962(1962))

LTBTLTBT (1962)(1962)

Vietnam CoupVietnam Coup (1963)(1963)

HotHot--Line AgreementLine Agreement (1963)(1963)

Kennedy AssassinatedKennedy Assassinated (1963)(1963)

China AChina A--bombbomb (1964)(1964)

VietnamVietnam (1964)(1964)


PolicyPolicy 2020

ENDEND


PolicyPolicy 2121

CubaCuba (1961(1961--1962)1962)

Bay of

Pigs

Back


PolicyPolicy 2222

B52 BomberB52 Bomber


PolicyPolicy 2323

Minuteman ICBMMinuteman ICBM


PolicyPolicy 2424

Polaris SSBN/SLBMPolaris SSBN/SLBM

Back


PolicyPolicy 2525

Strategic BalanceStrategic Balance --19701970

140/200140/200465/2200465/2200Bombers/WeaponBombers/Weapon

ss

1849184940744074WeaponsWeapons

20/289/289 (0)20/289/289 (0)41[656]/80041[656]/800

(160)(160)SSBNs[SLBMsSSBNs[SLBMs]/]/

RVs(MIRVsRVs(MIRVs))

1420/1420 (0)1420/1420 (0)1054/1074 (30)1054/1074 (30)ICBMs/RVsICBMs/RVs

((MIRVsMIRVs))

Soviet UnionSoviet UnionUSUS

Documents

1960-1964 - MIT OpenCourseWare · PPBS Escalation ladder Special forces Strategic triadStrategic triad SSBN/SLBM LTBT Wars of nationalWars of national Counter-insurgency Cost-effectiveness