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better together … we deliver
Sasol US Mega Projects Investor Presentation
19 September 2013
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 2 better together … we deliver
forward-looking statements
Forward-looking statements: Sasol may, in this document, make certain statements that are not historical facts and relate to analyses and other information which are based on forecasts of future results and estimates of amounts not yet determinable. These statements may also relate to our future prospects, developments and business strategies. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding exchange rate fluctuations, volume growth, increases in market share, total shareholder return and cost reductions. Words such as “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “seek”, “will”, “plan”, “could”, “may”, “endeavour” and “project” and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements, but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and there are risks that the predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. If one or more of these risks materialise, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, our actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. You should understand that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed more fully in our most recent annual report under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 on Form 20-F filed on 12 October 2012 and in other filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. The list of factors discussed therein is not exhaustive; when relying on forward-looking statements to make investment decisions, you should carefully consider both these factors and other uncertainties and events. Forward-looking statements apply only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 3 better together … we deliver
what will we cover today
● Overview of the Sasol Group
● North American Operations
● Our North American projects
– Competitive advantage
– Execution plan
● Closing remarks
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 4 better together … we deliver
Sasol at a glance
● An integrated energy and chemicals company
● The world’s largest producer of synthetic fuels
● South Africa’s leading energy and chemicals company
● Pioneer in gas-to-liquids (GTL) and coal-to-liquids (CTL)
technologies
● Over 60 years experience in CTL, GTL and related
technologies
● In-house technology development capacity (~255
engineering and science PhDs)
● Strong intellectual property portfolio (490 registered patent
families)
● Turnover ($20.5bn in FY13)
● Operating profit ($4.6 bn in FY13)
● Market cap (~$30 bn)
● Listed on JSE and NYSE-Euronext
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 5 better together … we deliver
expanding globally
our vision is to grow profitable sustainably and inclusively, while delivering value to shareholders through technology and the talent of our people in the energy and chemical markets in Southern Africa and worldwide
Sasol has exploration, development, production, marketing and sales operations in 38 countries across the world, employing more than 34 000 people
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 6 better together … we deliver
Sasol North America Lake Charles Chemical Complex
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 7 better together … we deliver
● Originated in 1961 as the Petrochemical Division of Conoco, later renamed Conoco Chemicals
● Acquired by Du Pont in 1982
● MBO formed Vista Chemical in 1984
● Acquired by RWE-DEA in 1991
● PVC Business Sold to Georgia Gulf in 1999
● Acquired by Sasol in 2001
Sasol North America – our history
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 8 better together … we deliver
an advantaged site with access to major highway, rail and port infrastructure
Sasol North America
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 9 better together … we deliver
City of Lake Charles City of Sulphur
City of Westlake
NISCO
Georgia Gulf MG Industries
BioLab
Phillips 66 Refinery
ARCH
Certainteed PPG
Citgo Refinery
Louisiana Pigment
Basell
Air Liquide
Firestone
Westlake Petrochem
Grace Davison Calcasieu
Refining
Trunkline LNG
Alcoa
Cameron LNG
Entergy
EXCEL Paralubes
Air Products
Targa Southern Ionics
Sabine Pass LNG
a thriving downstream and petrochemicals hub
Sasol North America
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 10 better together … we deliver
● Safety and Environmental Excellence
● Reliability and Plant Operations
● Cost/Profitability Improvement Focus
north american operations – our priorities
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 11 better together … we deliver
striving for zero harm
1stQuartile
2ndQuartile
4thQuartile
3rdQuartile
Recordable Case Rate*
* 12 month rolling average
--
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 12 better together … we deliver
3% Inflation Base
Fiscal Year
20 % reduction
continuous improvement – proven track record
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achieving operational excellence in North America
steadily higher volumes and revenues without a major debottleneck FY 93/94 FY 95/96 FY 97/98 FY 99/00 FY 01/02 FY 03/04 FY 05/06 FY 07/08 FY 09/10 FY 11/12 FY13/14B
Hurricane Rita
Global Economic Downturn
Ann
ual p
rodu
ctio
n
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the opportunity for Sasol
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 16 better together … we deliver
one of the largest foreign direct investment manufacturing projects in the US
● Approval for front-end engineering and design (FEED) for our world-scale ethane cracker complex and GTL project in December 2012
● GTL FID 18-24 months after LCCP FID
● Estimated total project capital investment: $16 to $21 billion
● More than 1,200 permanent jobs, up to 7,000 construction jobs at peak and 50,000 indirect jobs in Louisiana and across the U.S.
● Louisiana offers a business-friendly climate with predictable regulatory structures and attractive incentives
● Robust energy and chemicals industry in the Gulf Coast
● Access to best natural gas infrastructure
Copyright @ 2012, Sasol New Business Development
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gas-to-liquids in a nutshell
a commercially proven technology
Product work-up
10 mcf 1 barrel of product
1 bcf/d 100 000 bbl/day
1 tcf reserve 100 million bbl of products Over 30 years
GTL synthesis Reforming Natural gas as feedstock
Diesel: 75%
Naphtha: 20%
LPG: 5%
GTL products
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not only shale gas, but also shale ethane has changed North American energy and chemical markets
estimates vary from 40-100 years of supply
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
US
dry
gas
(tril
lion
cubi
c fe
et p
er y
ear) 2009History Projections
11%
14%
20%
9%
28%
8%2%9%
Net imports
Shale gas
Non-associated onshore
Non-associated offshore
Tight gas
Coal-bed methaneAlaska
Associated with oil
1%
45%
8%
8%
22%
7%1%7%
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 19 better together … we deliver
the US GTL opportunity is advantaged by favorable oil/gas price ratios
0
10
20
30
40
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037
Crude oil (Brent) prices expressed as a multiple of natural gas prices (Henry Hub)
actual EIA (2013)
● More than 400 tcf of gas in the US can be commercially produced at <$6/mmbtu
● All reputable long-term energy consultants forecast Henry Hub in a USD 4-6/mmbtu range (real ‘12)
● Oil/gas price differential forecast to remain favourable
● Investment in Montney shale provides virtual feedstock price hedge
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 20 better together … we deliver
● resulting output of 30% chemicals and 70% fuels (by mass)
natural gas reforming
sasol LTFT process
wax extraction
paraffin extraction
fuels product work - up
Process *
oxygen
natural gas
syngas
reactor wax
condensate
Paraffin for LAB production
natural gas reforming
sasol LTFT process
paraffin extraction
fuels product work - up Process *
syngas reactor wax
condensate
wax products
LPG
naphtha
diesel
paraffins
LPG
naphtha
diesel
base oils base oils
phas
e 1
phas
e 2 oxygen
natural gas
a Sasol wholly owned facility with a nameplate capacity of 4 million tons per annum
debottleneck in Hamburg, Germany
four new emulsification
units
new LAB unit in Lake Charles
minor modifications in
Augusta, Italy
* flexible design allows for operation in fuels only or value adds mode
GTL value addition
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Long term defensible position - bottom 30% of supply curve on a cash cost basis
Source: CMAI
ethane associated with gas leads to global leadership position for US crackers
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LCCP: world scale cracker and derivatives plants
backward-integrated growth for Sasol into a well-established and uniquely diversified market
To HDPE (with INEOS)
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execution is critical
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 24 better together … we deliver
proactive actions to address execution challenges
Recent mega-project experience in the Gulf Coast
Contracting strategies
Labour availability and productivity
● Utilization of standard designs where possible
● Disciplined stage-gate discipline to control change during design evolution
● Extended FEED programme to allow sufficient time to complete designs prior to construction
● Integrated project management team ● Leverage local mega-project expertise and
execution
● Well-defined contracting strategies ● Comprehensive contractor scan and development
effort to ensure most competitive pool of qualified EPCs
● Detailed market analysis of key labour supply/demand balances, productivity and labour rates
● Market intelligence and resource planning ● Modularisation and other strategies
Mitigation
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mega project experience
● Actively recruiting local, experienced people for Sasol North America
● Experienced IPMT* – Experienced international Sasol and Sasol
North America employees – Hire experienced local people – Experts from WorleyParsons and others
● Independent contractor expertise utilizing
WorleyParsons’ systems and tools – No execution responsibilities, thus no
conflict of interest – Own FEED & EPC management control
systems
* IPMT: Integrated Project Management Team
mitigating execution risks and applying best practices
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 26 better together … we deliver
hands-on management structure for basic development of LCCP packages
Integrated Project Management Team (IPMT) Sasol + Worley Parsons + others
Main FEED Contractor - Fluor Manages all Engineering Contractors (ECs), develops Basic Engineering Packages (BEPs) for its scope and integrates all BEPs into consolidated package
Infrastructure, Utilities & Off-sites
Alcohols & Ethoxylates
Licensors produce Process Design Package and hand over to selected ECs for BEP development
EO/MEG LLDPE LDPE CRACKER
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 27 better together … we deliver
using world-class technology and engineering partners
Licensor Engineering Partner
Ethane Cracker
LLDPE
LDPE
EO / MEG
HDPE (through JV)
Facility
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 28 better together … we deliver
modularization mitigates shortage of skills
ethane cracker project modularization study (feasibility)
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 29 better together … we deliver
favorable location enables modularization
MATERIALSLABORHEAVY HAULRAILROAD
EV
ER
GR
EE
N R
D
MATERIAL OFF-LOADINGFACILITY
PotentialModule
Laydown Area
I-10
SULPHUR ROAD
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 30 better together … we deliver
revisiting our investment considerations
robust project economics remain cornerstone of our investment decisions
Financing
Feedstock
Technology
Market
Capability
robust project
economics
● Prioritised portfolio ● Maintaining gearing target ● Good market appetite for Sasol debt
● Abundant low-cost feedstock supply ● Volume and price feedstock cover for GTL
investment
● Record performance levels at Oryx ● Superior technology value proposition ● Utilisation of proven technologies
● Well-established and uniquely diversified market ● Good market positioning of products ● Balanced portfolio of commodity and
differentiated products
● Experienced, well-resourced team ● Independent, reputable industry partners ● Lessons learnt executing mega-projects
strictly confidential - not for further dissemination 31 better together … we deliver
strong investment case
sustainable value creation