Upload
cameron-fleming
View
213
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 1
Activities & Plans 2007
Dijana Klaric Met service of Croatia
RC LACE Project Leader
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 2
RC LACE report
Environment &
R&D highlightsR&D highlights
Operations and Common actions
Project Evaluation
Future
F,Ro,Bg,Cz,Hu,Sk,PL,A,Mc,Si,Cr,B,Pt,Tu,Al (Mo,Tk,........)--I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I----I---I----I1990 1996------------------------2002 2007
ALADIN Project
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 4
ALADIN Project1990 ->o R&D project o Members with different
NWP ambitions
MF-LACE backbone
Structure & Budget
ALADIN Project1990 ->o R&D project o Members with different
NWP ambitions
MF-LACE backbone
Structure & Budget
LACE Project
1990 -> Operations and R&D
project Members sharing the
ambitions Romania membership
(November 2006) Central and SE Europe
LACE is a tool for ALADIN activity in C&SE E
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 5
Regional Cooperationenvironment
Members:Au-Cr-Cz-Hu-Ro-Si-Sk
Co-operation:R&D on meso-scale NWP
Operations
Common actions
RC LACE MoU RC LACE Budget
7 NWP teamsLACE MG Project Leader,
4 Working Group Leaders,
ALADIN SC, Data Manager
MF partner
ALADIN partners
HIRLAM
SRNWP
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 6
R&D overview
LACE Scientific Plans 2006; 2007 main input for ALADIN Scientific plans
IFS environment (spectral space):
Arpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro10km) -Arome (2.5km)
R&D working groups:
Dynamics , Physics , Data Assimilation, Predictability
40 scientists: 7 NWP teams + visitors
25-30 pxm funds
Leading NWP results: NH Dynamics -->>>
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 7
Dynamics and Coupling
NH ALADIN Dynamics
- core for NH ALADIN and AROME models
- tests at ECMWF ( to become the next IFS dynamics)
- Vertical finite elements (Hy, NH )
Other dynamical issues
SLHD filter
Dynamics –Physics interface
TL/AD for ALADIN SL – (4D Var tool)
18-21 Sept 2007
VFE for NH ALADIN -more accurate then Finite Differences-coded for Hy (Hortal ) and NH (Vivoda)-Stability tests (stil noisy at BC)
Results: Ref FD, 35lev , dt=5s Ref VFE, 35lev, dt=5s X-term, Z-term-FD
Ref FD, 100lev, dt=5s Ref VFE, 100lev, dt=5s(X-term, Z-term-FD)
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 9
SLHD – Semi Lagrangian Horizontal Diffusion
- non-linear scheme
-triggered by flow field deformation
-special care to control orography triggered noise
Results: on Prognostic Physics variables
TKE over flat orog.
AROME
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 10
Physics
System AAA
Arpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro10km) -Arome (2.5km)
Physic packages :
ALADIN/ARPEGE - global and LAM- sharing phy.
meso-NH physics - base for AROME meso-γ model
ALARO physics - multi-scale physics for 10-5km:
New governing equ. and progn. water species
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 11
Physics (10km->5km) ALARO transition
ALARO-0, step 1 (system) Equations and interface (loss of mass due to precipitation
is considered ); Prognostic cloud water (microphysics 5 water species); Radiation –NER formulation; Turbulence (pseudo- prognostic TKE scheme); Cloudiness issue (improved optical properties, new
saturation cloud model) ALARO-0, step 2 (multi-scale, “grey-zone”)
Sub-grib scale convection - 3MT
3MT - Microphysics and TransportMicrophysics and Transport for SGS convection for SGS convection +Multiscale +Modular =3MT
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 12
ALARO Diagnostics
Model consistency and performance
(ALARO: more memory, less CPU – better optinimized)
DDH tool for diagnostic (IFS basic, AAA developed)
Model comparison ALARO vs ALADIN Phy
ALARO –v0: operative at CZ, Be,..... (new ALADIN)
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 13
• MT + additional prognostic variables + cascading microphysics MT + additional prognostic variables + cascading microphysics relevant for « grey zone » relevant for « grey zone » 2MT. 2MT.
2MT: Multiscale Microphysics and Transport.2MT: Multiscale Microphysics and Transport.
7 km 4 km 2 km7 km 4 km 2 kmCas du 10/09/2005. Cumul de précipitation en 1h (mm). Source Gerard (QJRMS Cas du 10/09/2005. Cumul de précipitation en 1h (mm). Source Gerard (QJRMS
2007).2007).
2MT – What has been done – Results (J-M Piriou, Radostovice, ALARO Training and WS)2MT – What has been done – Results (J-M Piriou, Radostovice, ALARO Training and WS)
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 14
ALARO plans 2007->
Governing equations: extension to compressible case (NH)
Pseudo-prognostic TKE-scheme: new mixing length formulation; an 'analytical' CBR interpretation within p-TKE
Gravity wave drag parametrization: re-tune for no- envelope orography 3MT: validation and tuning, sensitivity to mid-
troposphere humidity , test of convection diurnal cycle
(Team; JF Geleyn, JM Piriou, B Catry, L Gerard, R Brozkova, N Pristov,M Tudor, F Vana, J Masek, D Banciu......)
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 15
Data Assimilation
Research focus
Ensemble B matrics 3D-FGAT –ALADIN
(transition to 4D-Var) Observations AMV, SEVIRI
Blending initialization (with surface OI –CANARI)
(team:Boloni,Kertesz, Trojakova,Majek, Randriamampianina)Randriamampianina)
ALADIN/ 3D VAR – HMS
• ∆x=12 km; 37 vertical L
• 6 hour cycle
• 3D-VAR for the upper air fields
• substitution of the surface fields by the ARPEGE ones
• B matrix: NMC method
• LBC: long cut-off ARPEGE analysis, 3 h coupling frequency
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 16
3D FGAT - hourly SYNOPs, AIREP, SATOB
increments tests; observation window;
Results:3D FGAT vs 3DVar (all measurements)
Red- 3D FGAT better (Z,RH, U,V)
RMS
BIAS
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 17
SEVIRI data analysis by ALADIN -3DVar
Tests:
with 2 ways for B Matrix computation: NMC vs Ensemble
diff 3D Var resolutions (12km/37L vs 8km/45L)
Tuning of obs-error statistics
Results on SEVIRI impact :
Impact be similar to ATOVS data (AMSU-A or AMSU-B) assimilated in high resolution;
Impact depending on the parameters (Rh, Z) and model levels; Negative impact near the surface needs further tests with
more surface measurements (2m T, 2m RH) -coupled with SEVIRI
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 18
WG on Predictability
Research focus Uncertenties at initial conditionsALADIN Singular Vector (SV)Breeding, ET, ETKF, blendingBlending ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN
perturbation
Multi-physics parameterizations ( 11 mem, diff tuning, diff schem.)
Downscaling of ECMWF EPS Clustering approaches for downscaling ECMWF EPS
( ECMWF Tech. Memo.507, Jan 2007)(team: Wang, Kann, Horanyi, Bellus, Ivatek-Sahdan, Hagel,etc)
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 19
Uncertenties at initial conditionsT-perturbations for: SV, breeding, blended
Blending:
ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN perturbation
Blended perturbations have the highest spread (red curve)
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 20
Multi-physics option11 members, Bougeault-type, Kain-Fritsch deep convection scheme,
moisture convergence and CAPE closure in the convection scheme, Kessler-type scheme for LP,Lopez microphysics scheme
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 21
WG on Predictability
Common tools and products
Verification package
LAEF products Down. of ECMWF EPS(16+cont, 18 km)- EPS grams- Probability charts- StampsPlanned:- Multi-physics- Blending
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 22
2007 ALADIN-LACE-HIRLAM actions
ALARO training at Radostovice, March 2007 14 participants all LACE Members (+ MF, Be, PT, Mc + Denmark)
GLAMEPS Project at ECMWF ( HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE EPS project)
ALADIN-HIRLAM coordination on SURFACE and DA issues
ALADIN-HIRLAM general WS at Oslo April 2007
LACE training on CANARI at Budapest, Nov 2007
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 23
GLAMEPS “grand” EPS
Meso-scale real-time EPS >100 members
HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE alterative of using several sub-European and less
populated ensemble systems which single NMSs could run on their own
Common: operations, product distribution and verification
Desirable set-ups : „large” domain: 22km, 37 levels, 320 x 300
points, +60h int.
Two phases Laboratory phase at ECMWF (2007-2008) Distributed production stage (2008-2009)
18-21 Sept 2007
GLAMEPS_v0- test phase
HIRLAM -66 members
ECMWF targeted singular vectors (TSV)
OT - 24h
-3 TSV domains
- 2 HIRLAM physics
- (10 memx2 mod x3dom)
ALADIN – 20 members
Downscaling of ECMWF EPS
22km/44km ALADIN lat/lon post-proc. (INM sys) Next step: ALADIN native
singular vectors (tests)
(OT =+12h, +24h)
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 25
FDP MAP D-Phase
MAP D-phase Demonstration Project (June-Nov 2007)
- Probabilistic hydrological and meteorological simulations for heavy rains and flood events
- Contribution of LACE via Austrian team
- ALADIN/Austria for deterministic products
(∆x= 9.6km, 45 levels, dyn. adaptation)
- ALADIN LAEF probability products (24h precipitation)
(∆x= 18km, 37 levels, 16 mem +contr. from ECMWF EPS)
- Disseminated to
MAP D-Phase center
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 26
RC LACE common actions
Centralized Verification: (Ljubljana)
Client/server system All ALADIN mod. results Tool for basic scores
(synoptic scale) Monthly reporting
procedure Portable to members
ODB activities: (Data Manager; Budapest)
ODB training ODB help-desk Interactive Obs. Monitoring
for Var DA Monthly reporting procedure QC for each station Comparison of Var DA results
Exchange of HR observations monitoring of obs network at MS
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 27
www.rclace.eu (public and private zone)
RC LACE Operations:+72h integration, 00 (06),12, (18) UTC runs
Domain Hor.res.
Vert.res.
Physics Config.
A 300x270 9.6 45 25t2(29t2, Lopez)
e001,CANARI(INCA), LAEF
Cr 229x205 8.0 37 29t1, SHLD, new phy, mean orog.
e001, DADA,ODB
Cz 320x288 9.0 43 29t2, SLHD, new phy., mean orog.
DFI blending, CANARI, ODBe001, ALARO phy.
H 432x384 8.0 49 28t3 3DVAR, CANARI,e001, DADA
Si 258x244 9.5 37
29t2, SHLD,low cloudiness
e001, DADA
Sk 320x288 9.0 37
28t3 e001, DADA, (INCA),ODB
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 29
RC LACE
Evaluation
Project Evaluation after 10 years of
common activities (1996-2006)
Goals:
- To provide objective view of Project
- To range a LACE to NWP objectives
- To give independent advices about future development
Input for new LACE structure 2008->
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 30
General recommendations (Quality of Project)
Strategy and planning
(short-term, long-term; users demands) Management structure
(competence, authority) Internal/external communications
(WWW, visibility, NWP consortia) Role of NWP systems at LACE centers
(AAA models as the primary subjects)
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 31
Recommendations for Task Sharing
Reasons: To overcome the
duplication of the operational efforts.
To suppress draining of resources on maintaining and downstream applications.
To provide small NWP centers with a complete NWP system.
Methods: Define the common tasks Agreement on Lead Centres for specific areasLead Centers: o for researcho for operations
Results: Efficient use of the available
manpower. Specialisation of the NWP
teams.
18-21 Sept 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens 32
LACE Future 2008 ->
Political decision for the closer operative cooperation (toward the Projects with operative deliverables)
Leading centers => Responsible center Bottom-up => Top-down planning
Action Plan for implementation of (Working Group) LACE 10-years strategy LACE MoU III