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17 November 2013
Prof. Yoshitsugu Hayashi
President of WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society)
Director, International Research Center for
Sustainable Transport and Cities, Nagoya University, Japan
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 1
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 2 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Transport as
1) Causer of CO2 and pollution
2) Supporter for CO2 and pollution causers (industries)
3) Victim of climate change
4) Barrier for sustainability
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 4
Car Ownership
GDP per Capita US$ (1995)
Car
s p
er
1,0
00
inh
abit
ants
Yoshi Hayashi, Sep. 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
London
Tokyo
Bangkok
Seoul
Hong kong
Singapore (CA)
‘95
‘05
‘95 ‘95
‘00 ‘85
‘85
‘80
‘95
‘95
‘00
‘70
‘60
Nagoya
Shanghai
‘95
‘02 Beijing
05
09
‘05
‘05
‘05
2012/9/24 Yoshitsugu Hayashi SUSTRAC Nagoya Univ.
Photo by Hayashi(1993)
Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd, Bangkok
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
5
London
Tokyo Nagoya
Bangkok
0 50 km 1910
1965
1985
Changes in Built-up Areas
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
6
Upgrading Transport to a Key Sector
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Africa
Latin America
Middle East
Other Asia
India
China
Eastan Europe
Russia
OECD ASIA
Australia and NZ
OECD Europe
Anglo America
1
Car Ownership Trend
Bill
ion
Veh
icle
s
Transport 22%
Other Sectors 78%
Transport
Other Sectors ?%
18
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 7
Serious Air Pollution Jointly by Industry, Household and Traffic
9 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Air Pollution Blowing Housings
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 10
Emissions from Motorways Occupied by Lorries as a Result of Road Transport based Industrial Development
11 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 12
CO2 Emission Growth in Transport from Economic Growth C
O2
em
issi
on
s fr
om
tra
nsp
ort
(M
illio
n t
on
)
GDP (trillion US $)
US
China
Japan 54 CO2 Mt/ trillion
US$ in 1990
57 CO2 Mt/ trillion
US$ in 1960
132 CO2 Mt/ trillion
US$ in 2010
136 CO2 Mt/ trillion
US$ in 2007
238 CO2 Mt/ trillion
US$ in 1960
204 CO2 Mt/ trillion
US$ in 1992 EU
76 CO2 Mt/ trillion
US$ in 1960
66 CO2 Mt/ trillion
US$ in 2010
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 13
China
US US
China vs Japan Tonnage
GDP [tril.US$]
CO2
[bil.t-CO2]
Total ton-km
Road ton-km
Japan
1961 2004
1998
2011
1998
2011
2011 2011
1998 1990
2003 1990
2003
1998
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 14
Japan
China
US US
Change the slope by AVOID/SHIFT/IMPORVE
Tonnage
GDP [tril.US$]
CO2
[bil.t-CO2]
Total ton-km
Road ton-km
Japan
1961 2004
1998
2011
1998
2011
2011 2011
1998
1990
2003
1990
2003
1998
AVOID Efficient
Supply Chain
SHIFT Shift to rail
IMPROVE Energy
Efficient
Vehicles
Strategies
Means
AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE
Technologies
• Transport oriented
development (TOD)
• Poly-centric development
• Efficient freight distribution
• Railways and BRT
Improvement
• Interchange improvement
among railway, BRT, bus and
para-transit modes
• Facilities for personal mobility
and pedestrians
• Development of electric
vehicles
• Development of biomass
fuel
• "Smart grid“ development
Regulations • Land-use control
• Separation of bus/para-transit
trunk and feeder routes
• Local circulating service
• Control on driving and parking
• Emissions standards
• “Top-runner" approach
Information
• Telecommuting
• Online shopping
• Lifestyle change
• ITS public transport operation
• "Eco-driving"
• ITS traffic-flow management
• Vehicle performance
labeling
Economy • Subsidies and taxation to
location
• Congestion Charge
• Cooperative fare systems
• Value capture
• Fuel tax/carbon tax
• Preferential taxation to low-
emissions vehicles
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 16
Introduction 1990s (Before MRT Development)
2000s (After MRT Development)
Photo by Hayashi, 1993 Photo by Hayashi, 2002
Trend of Traffic Congestion
Ave
rage
sp
ee
d (
km/h
r)
21.5
8.1
14.0
19.0
15.2
Trend of Traffic Congestion in Bangkok
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17
10 lines, total distance 464 km
Thammasat Rangsit – Maha Chai (80.8 km)
Bang Yai – Rat Burana (42.8 km)
Salaya – Hau Mak (54 km)
Bang Sue – Tha Phra – Phutthamonthon sai 4 (55 km)
Yod se – Bang Wa (15.5 km)
Lam Luk Ka – Bang Pu (66.5 km)
Khae Rai – Min Buri (36 km)
Lat Phrao – Sam Rong (30.4 km)
Taling Chan –Thailand Cultural Center – Mon Buri (32.5 km)
18 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Success in 3 projects
More public support
Government policy shift to Railway (2011)
1st Leapfrog
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
SA Express (4-car train) SA City Line (3-car train)
Bangkok Airport Link: Rolling Stock
Source: Dr. Krit, State Railways of thailand
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 19
Disbursement
0.51%
Railway 82.29%
Customs 0.61%
2.2 trillion Baht
Road 14.47%
Port 1.49%
MRTA Projects Cost (mil. Baht)
Blue Line extension 82,369.14
Green Line extension
100,106.11
Pink Line 58,658.15
Orange Line 115,263.50
Yellow Line 57,466.50
Source: Thailand 2020 (2013), Ministry of Transport 20 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
1st Leapfrog
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 21 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
- Methodology for MRV in NAMAs-
CO2
1989 2005 2050 2020
Leap-Frog
Bangkok
CO2 Per Capita from transport
3.5t (2007)
BAU
Master Plan in 2020
Heavy Congestion BTS Sky Train
20km MRT Development
81km 10lines total 464km
1999 1989 2010
Car 51%
Bus 49%
Rail 5%
Car 57%
Bus 38%
Rail Car
Urban Vision
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 23
0,000
0,500
1,000
1,500
0 20.000 40.000 60.000
0
100
200
300
400
0 20.000 40.000 60.000
Trip Frequency
Built-up Area
Traffic Speed
Fossil Fuel Share
Railway Network intensity
× ×
Travel Demand Car Dependency
GDP
(Modal Split) =
CO2 emissions
GDP
AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Mitigation
Car Ownership
Fuel Efficiency
24
Energy Efficiency (Travel Distance)
GDP GDP
(CO2 Emission / km)
0
500
1.000
0 20.000 40.000 60.000
km2
Car/1000pop
Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA Km/ km2
Urban Policy Roadmap
Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA
Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
0 25 50
CO₂ Emissions (Mt-CO₂/year)
car rail bus truck
25
凡例
! kogyo_yamashita
rail2010_2
expressway
zokusei
1
2
Industry
legend 凡例
! kogyo_yamashita
rail2010_2
expressway
zokusei
1
2
MRT
凡例
! kogyo_yamashita
rail2010_2
expressway
zokusei
1
2
Inner-ring
凡例
! kogyo_yamashita
rail2010_2
expressway
zokusei
1
2Outer-ring
15.2km/h
14.0km/h
8.9km/h
12.7km/h
Present
Without Outer-ring Roads
Without Inner-ring Roads
Without MRT
CO2:+10.7% Speed:-16.3%
CO2:+1.1% Speed:-8.0%
CO2:+0.8% Speed:-41.7%
1st Leapfrog
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
6000
7000
8000
9000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
26
Scenario of additionally developing MRT length In Bangkok
Urban sprawl calming by high density development around stations
15% 26% Pop/km2
①Early development
350
400
450
500
550
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Car ownership growth calming by rail-oriented travel habit
Car/1000pop
23% 44%
Changes from 2010 ① ②
MRT development timing scenario in Bangkok km
MRT Master Plan
②Later development
Urban Policy Roadmap
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
27
The Roadmap for Low-Carbon Urban Transport Development in ASEAN Megacities
40%
24%
31%
25%
CO2-emission reduction Million tons
IMPROVE
SHIFT
AVOID
Land-use control (3% less annual expansion of built-up area)
Increasing LEV share (EV76%, HV23%), Improving Fuel Efficiencies (by 28%) Emission intensity of power generation (2005:1269g-CO2/kwh 2050: 546g-CO2/kwh)
4,568 km MRT development, (6cities, Ave.: 760 km/city)
23,337km BRT development (23cities, Ave.:1015km/city)
Urban Policy Roadmap
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 28 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
- Inter-regional Transport-
Shanghai
Singapore
Phnom Penh
GMS (Greater Mekong Sub region)
29
Hanoi
Road(Economic Corridor)
Bangkok
Yangon
Kyaukpyu Port
Kunming
SHIFT
Inland Freight High Speed Rail (HSR) Development between Port Hubs
Proposing Vision:
Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport
AVOID
Local Cities on HSR
Light Industry
Advanced Industry & Commercial
Megacities on HSR
Cities on Local Freight Rail
Heavy Industry
Efficient
Supply Chain Low-Carbon Public
Transport Mobility
Technology &
Operation
Rail/Water Oriented Intermodal Transport System
Low-carbon Vehicles, Aircrafts, Vessels
Industrial Rail-Oriented Development (ROD) Corridor
IMPROVE
Interregional Vision
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Interregional Vision
30 30
Current Industrial location(Bangkok) Scenario 1:
Priority to resilience for disaster
Scenario 2: Priority to low labor cost (Cambodia)
Scenario 3: Priority to larger economic market(Indian)
Route 2 (2,000km)
Port
Bangkok
Ho chi Minh City
530km
To India
Via Singapore
Impact analysis to reduce CO2 emissions by plant location change Efficient Industrial Supply Chain
Bangkok
100km
CO2 emission -3%
Present Scenario 1
Proximity location of Assembly plant and
supplier
Production Process
+25% CO2 emission
Present Scenario 2
Need of improving Production
process
Route 1 (5,000km)
Via Myanmar
From Thailand
-33% CO2 emission
Sea only Integrated transport
Seamless transport using sea and rail or truck
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
40% CO2 mitigation 30% time saving
31
Bangkok (Thailand)
1,000km
Case Study: Bangkok – Hanoi
Optimal Modal Splits for reducing 40% CO2 emission
Hanoi (Vetnum)
(with / without)
With railway
Without railway
30% time Saving
Truck Maritime
Railway 91.7%
14.2%
Interregional Vision
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
32
CO2-emission reduction
New GMS-wide HSR network is
necessary(●●km)
SHIFT
AVOID
Interregional Policy Roadmap
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Key Massages
• Transport is “causer” as well as “victim” of climate change
• Simultaneous achievement of Sustainability + Resilience Co-benefits
• We are developing robust instruments for MRV in NAMA allowing more transport projects
• Good signs to reverse common sense from road to rail Bangkok (Rail: 0% in 90’s 82% now)
• Transport can trigger innovations in styles of production(Efficiency) and life (Sufficiency)
17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 33