16-017 - NML001 Revision1$/SSF $ 4,579,180 $654.17 $4,661,865 $665.98 $4,816,729 $688.10 Scenario 2B – Site 2000 Weekly Sales $/SSF ... Facility Profile August 2015 Number of Facilities

Dakota Worldwide Corp. 8200 Humboldt Avenue S., Suite 302 • Minneapolis, MN 55431

Telephone 800.475.4505

Northfield, Minnesota

Prepared for: The City of Northfield By: Dakota Worldwide Corporation

August 2015 NML001

Northfield, Minnesota Market Study (NML001 ~ August 2015) Page i



Table of Contents

Page

Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................1

Three-Year Growth Pattern ......................................................................................................2 Trade Area Delineation .............................................................................................................5 Population/Demographics .........................................................................................................5 Competition ..............................................................................................................................6 Site Evaluation/Analysis .........................................................................................................10

Analysis .........................................................................................................................................30

Assumptions ...........................................................................................................................30 Methodology ...........................................................................................................................31 Competitor Information & Evaluation ....................................................................................32 Trade Area Data by Sector .....................................................................................................34

Appendix .......................................................................................................................................36

Current Market Reports ..........................................................................................................36 Market Change Reports ..........................................................................................................38 Scenarios/Projections ..............................................................................................................39 Definitions ..............................................................................................................................63 Qualifier ..................................................................................................................................64 Source Data .............................................................................................................................65

Northfield, Minnesota Market Study (NML001 ~ August 2015) Page 1



Executive Summary

The purpose of this study is to determine the feasibility of either relocating the existing Northfield Municipal Liquor Store or opening a second location on south Highway 3. Ten Sites were tested. The trade area consists of Northfield and Dundas as well as the surrounding rural areas. It is the same trade area that was used in the 2006 market study. The adult population of this trade area is 25,988 which results in annual liquor potential of over 10 million dollars. There are 13 competitors that receive a portion of their business from the trade area. Combined they capture 83.78% of the total liquor expenditures potential. Float, that portion of the potential that is not captured, is 15.95%. Float makers include sales of 3.2% beer in grocery and convenience stores as well as any unidentified liquor stores people may be frequenting in the Twin Cities Metro. Firehouse Liquors in Dundas has the largest market share with a 29.82% market share. Second is Northfield Municipal Liquors with a 28.07% market share. Third is Lonsdale Municipal Liquors with a 9.5% market share. The remaining ten competitors have a market share of 3.95% or less individually. One market change was discovered at the time the field work was conducted. The City of Lakeville will be opening a fourth liquor store near the intersection of Interstate 35 and County Road 70. This market change was included in all scenarios. A total of 12 Scenarios at ten Sites were tested. Seven of the sites are along Highway 3. Two scenarios test a 3,500 sales area square foot store and the remaining nine test a 7,000 sales area square foot store. Traffic counts, surrounding population density, accessibility, visibility, adjacent retail help, and the proximity to the college campuses were all considered when rating the nine sites. Two of the 7,000 square foot stores test for a second location on south Highway 3. These scenarios are not feasible as the combined total sales for operating two facilities is only marginally higher than current sales at the existing facility. The 3,500 sales area square foot sites on Water Street and the southeast corner of Highway 3 and Second Street also test poorly. Both have poor physical site characteristics and the size does not result in an improvement over the existing location. The best sites are along Highway 3, especially those closest to Highway 19. A pro forma analysis will determine which sites would be the most profitable. Three year sales projections for all scenarios are given in the table on the next page.




Table 1

Three-Year Growth Pattern Annual Sales

1st Year

September 2017

2nd Year September 2018

3rd Year September 2019

Scenario 1A – Site 1000 Annual Sales $/SSF

$4,635,452

$662.21

$4,719,830

$674.26

$4,876,609

$696.66 Scenario 1B – Site 1000 Annual Sales $/SSF

$3,441,053

$491.58

$3,519,233

$502.75

$3,645,064

$ 520.72 Scenario 2A – Site 2000 Annual Sales $/SSF

$ 4,579,180

$654.17

$4,661,865

$665.98

$4,816,729

$688.10 Scenario 2B – Site 2000 Weekly Sales $/SSF

$3,411,390

$487.34

$3,488,519

$498.36

$3,613,510

$ 516.22 Scenario 3 – Site 3000 Annual Sales $/SSF

$4,752,484

$678.93

$4,836,111

$690.87

$4,994,742

$713.53 Scenario 4 – Site 4000 Annual Sales $/SSF

$2,784,514

$795.58

$2,847,994

$813.71

$2,953,801


$4,592,389

$656.06

$4,673,165

$667.59

$4,827,489


$4,652,651

$664.66

$4,734,801

$676.40

$4,890,646


$4,922,100

$703.16

$5,006,712

$715.24

$5,168,741


$3,307,609

$945.03

$3,380,613

$965.89

$3,503,241 $1,000.93

Scenario 9 – Site 9000 Annual Sales $/SSF

$4,915,179

$702.17

$4,999,671

$714.24

$5,161,497


$4,733,397

$676.20

$4,815,887

$687.98

$4,973,406

$710.49




Market Changes: Market Change 1: A new 7,700 sales area square foot Lakeville Liquor opens at Map Key 100

at the intersection of Interstate 35 and County Road 70.

Scenarios: Scenario 1A: A new 7,000 sales area square foot Northfield Municipal Liquors opens at

Site 1000 near the intersection of Highway 3 and Clinton Lane replacing the Northfield Municipal Liquors at Map Key 12. The market change is in effect.

Scenario 1B: A new 7,000 sales area square foot Northfield Municipal Liquors opens at

Site 1000 near the intersection of Highway 3 and Clinton Lane. The Northfield Municipal Liquors at Map Key 12 remains open. The market change is in effect.

Scenario 2A: A new 7,000 sales area square foot Northfield Municipal Liquors opens at

Site 2000 near the intersection of Highway 3 and Professional Drive replacing the Northfield Municipal Liquors at Map Key 12. The market change is in effect.

Scenario 2B: A new 7,000 sales area square foot Northfield Municipal Liquors opens at

Site 2000 near the intersection of Highway 3 and Professional Drive. The Northfield Municipal Liquors at Map Key 12 remains open. The market change is in effect.

Scenario 3: A new 7,000 sales area square foot Northfield Municipal Liquors opens at

Site 3000 at the intersection of Highway 3 and Woodley Street replacing the Northfield Municipal Liquor Store at Map Key 12. The market change is in effect.


Site 4000 at the intersection of 8th Street and Water Street replacing the Northfield Municipal Liquor Store at Map Key 12. The market change is in effect.


Site 5000 at the intersection of Division Street and 7th Street replacing the Northfield Municipal Liquor Store at Map Key 12. The market change is in effect.


Site 6000 at Highway 3 and 3rd Street replacing the Northfield Municipal Liquor Store at Map Key 12. The market change is in effect.




Scenario 7: A new 7,000 sales area square foot Northfield Municipal Liquors opens at Site 7000 at the southwest corner of Highway 3 and 2nd Street replacing the Northfield Municipal Liquor Store at Map Key 12. The market change is in effect.


Site 8000 at the southeast corner of Highway 3 and 2nd Street replacing the Northfield Municipal Liquor Store at Map Key 12. The market change is in effect.


Site 9000 at the northeast corner of Highway 3 and 2nd Street replacing the Northfield Municipal Liquor Store at Map Key 12. The market change is in effect.


Site 10000 at the northeast corner of Highway 3 and St Olaf Avenue replacing the Northfield Municipal Liquor Store at Map Key 12. The market change is in effect.




Trade Area Delineation The trade area is determined by the existing road network, natural boundaries, shopping patterns, and the sites’ relationship to competition. Portions of Rice, Dakota and Goodhue counties are included. It spans approximately 21 miles from north to south and 23 miles from east to west. The Northfield Municipal Liquor store receives approximately 90% of its sales from within this defined trade area.

Population/Demographics

Table 2

Population & Potential Summary August 2015

Potential $10,260,526

P.C.E. $394.82 2010 Census 21+ Population 24,989 2015 Estimated 21+ Population 25,988 2020 Estimated 21+ Population 27,564

The current population in the trade area is 25,988 people and the average P.C.E. is $394.82, ranging from a high of $424.71 in Sector 2 to a low of $293.06 in Sector 3. The total potential $10,260,526 and the 13 facilities identified are receiving $8,623,500 or a 84.05% market share. Total float, which consists of minor facilities and leakage, is $1,637,026 or 15.95%. The 2015 estimated median income for the trade area is $66,984 with an average household size of 2.52 people. The demographic makeup is 90.3% white, 0.7% black, 5.4% Hispanic and 2.0% Asian. Additionally, 32.8% of the residents are under the age of 21 and 13.4% are over the age of 65.




Competition

Table 3

Facility Profile August 2015

Number of Facilities – Total 13

Potential Facility Sales Within Trade Area Facility Percent Float Float Percent

$10,260,526 $8,623,500

84.05% $1,637,026

15.95%

Highest Volume Facility Farmington Muni (Map Key 1)

Largest Facility Lakeville Iberia (Map Key 2)

$4,600,000

7,000 SSF

Sales Per Sales Area Square Foot – Average High (Farmington Muni - Map Key 1) Low (Northern Liquor - Map Key 8)

$740.86 $1,277.78

$262.50

Combined, the 13 facilities contain a total of 36,100 sales area square feet with total sales of $26,745,000. The facilities average 2,777 sales area square feet and $2,057,308 in sales. The average sales per sales area square foot are $740.86. There are 1,999 adult customers per facility.




Stores Firehouse Liquor 1 Facility 6,400 square feet 29.82% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $3,400,000 or $531.25 per sales area square foot. This is a larger, no frills liquor store. It is predominantly a beer store. Although their selection of wine and liquor is better than most, the presentation is lackluster. Northfield Muni 1 Facility 3,000 square feet 28.07% Market Share The annual sales are $3,200,000 or $1,066.67 per sales area square foot. This store has an attractive exterior and an inviting interior. The staff is knowledgeable and helpful. Drawbacks to this facility are its overall size, two-level layout and inadequate parking. Lonsdale Municipal Liquors 1 Facility 1,200 square feet 9.50% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $1,300,000 or $1,083.33 per sales area square foot. This is a relatively new facility that moved from downtown to the east end of town on Highway 19. The new facility is very attractive and the store’s sales are meeting projections. Haskell's 1 Facility 6,300 square feet 3.95% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $2,700,000 or $428.57 per sales area square foot. This store relocated from a smaller store closer to the center of town. The new facility is attractive and easy to shop. Farmington Municipal Liquors 1 Facility 3,600 square feet 3.59% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $4,600,000 or $1,277.78 per sales area square foot. This store has the highest sales per sales area square foot in the marketplace. It features a good craft beer selection as well as a good wine selection.




Hy-Vee Liquors 1 Facility 3,200 square feet 3.12% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $3,200,000 or $1,000.00 per sales area square foot. Hy-Vee offers some of the best prices in the marketplace. It offers a good selection and friendly, courteous employees. Lakeville Municipal Liquors 1 Facility 7,000 square feet 1.29% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $4,400,000 or $628.57 per sales area square foot. This is one of three Lakeville owned liquor stores. It is an attractive facility but is not visible from the main roadway. Its sales have increased since Cub Foods opened across the street. Rod's Liquors 1 Facility 1,200 square feet 1.27% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $1,300,000 or $1083.33 per sales area square foot. Formerly a municipal liquor store, this is a small liquor store in near downtown Cannon Falls. Its selection is small due to its size. TDF Liquors 1 Facility 600 square feet 1.10% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $750,000 or $1,250.00 per sales area square foot. This Elko New Market liquor store has surprisingly high sales for its size. The parking and entrance is awkward and the two room layout makes it difficult to shop. Best Buy 1 Facility 1,600 square feet 0.88% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $900,000 or $562.50 per sales area square foot. This Cannon Falls liquor store is on the south end of town. There is no longer direct access from Highway 52 making accessibility poor.




Kenyon Muni 1 Facility 500 square feet 0.80% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $410,000 or $820.00 per sales area square foot. The Kenyon Muni is actually a downtown bar with a small assortment of off-sale beer, wine and spirits. Fareway Liquor 1 Facility 700 square feet 0.37% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $375,000 or $535.71 per sales area square foot. Formerly Duff’s, this liquor store was acquired by Fareway Foods in January. It is now cleaner and somewhat better merchandised. Sales are up somewhat since the change in ownership. Northern Liquor 1 Facility 800 square feet 0.31% Market Share The annual sales are estimated to be $210,000 or $262.50 per square foot. This is a very small neighborhood liquor store in northern Faribault. Its ratings are well below average.




Site 1000 State Highway 3 and Clinton Lane




Table 4

Site Evaluation Site 1000

State Highway 3 and Clinton Lane

Sales Area 7,000 square feet

Co-Tenants Freestanding

Parking Assumed Ample

Adjacent Land Use Small Strip Center

Street Conditions State Highway 3: 4 lanes with turn lanes (50 MPH) Clinton Lane: 2 lanes without turn lanes (30 MPH)

Traffic Control Stop sign at Highway 3 for Clinton Lane

Visibility Excellent

Accessibility Good

Ingress/Egress Assumed Excellent

Transient Exposure Very Good

Analysis Traffic counts on Highway 3 near this site as well as Sites 2000 and 3000 are 8,300 vehicles daily. This site has excellent visibility as it is elevated above the roadway. The lot is large enough to have ample parking and ingress/egress should be excellent as Clinton Lane is a low volume street. There is a stop sign as opposed to a signal light at Clinton Lane but left turns are relatively easy to execute most times of the day. Conversely, a store on this site as well as Sites 2000 and 3000 are distant from the two college campuses. There is little surrounding the site to attract shoppers to the area. Overall this site has a rating of good.




Site 2000 State Highway 3 and Professional Drive




Table 5


State Highway 3 and Professional Drive



Parking Excellent

Adjacent Land Use Hardware store, Super America, small engine repair

Street Conditions State Highway 3: 4 lanes with turn lanes (50 MPH) Professional Drive: 2 lanes without turn lanes (30 MPH)

Traffic Control Stop sign for Professional Drive at Highway 3 Frontage

Visibility Poor

Accessibility Good

Ingress/Egress Excellent

Transient Exposure Good

Analysis This site has good accessibility but no direct accessibility from Highway 3. Shoppers have to exit Highway 3 at Woodley Street and access the frontage road. The site itself has poor visibility from Highway 3 as sightlines are blocked by a row of trees. Overall this site has a rating of fair.




Site 3000 State Highway 3 and Woodley Street




Table 6


State Highway 3 and Woodley Street



Parking Assumed Ample

Adjacent Land Use Convenience stores, car wash

Street Conditions State Highway 3: 4 lanes with turn lanes (50 MPH)

Traffic Control Signal light at Woodley and Highway 3


Accessibility Very Good



Analysis

This site is next to a signalized intersection which makes for very good ingress and egress. There could be ingress and egress on both Woodley and 9th Street. Woodley Street makes for good access from the east and the proximity to Highway 19 makes the site very accessible from the west as well. Visibility is excellent from all directions. Overall this site rates as very good.




Site 4000 Water Street and 8th Street




Table 7


Water Street and 8th Street



Parking Fair

Adjacent Land Use Residential, small businesses

Street Conditions Water Street: 2 lanes without turn lanes (30 MPH) 8th Street: 2 lanes without turn lanes (30 MPH)

Traffic Control Stop sign at Water for 8th

Visibility Fair

Accessibility Fair

Ingress/Egress Assumed Good

Transient Exposure Very Poor

Analysis This site is strictly a destination site. A store on this site would have to be heavily promoted so people could find it. There is no adjacent retail to attract people to this area and absolutely no transient exposure. Further, the small size is not an improvement over the existing location. The traffic volume is so low on 8th and Water that traffic counts are not even done. Overall this site rates as very poor.




Site 5000 Division Street and 7th Street




Table 8


Division Street and 7th Street


Co-Tenants EconoFoods, Small Shops

Parking Excellent

Adjacent Land Use Central Business District

Street Conditions Division Street: 2 lanes without turn lanes (30 MPH) 7th Street: 2 lanes without turn lanes (30 MPH)

Traffic Control Stop sign at Division for 7th

Visibility Very Good

Accessibility Very Good


Transient Exposure Good

Analysis

This site is on the southern edge of downtown Northfield. A store here will benefit from the traffic generated by the grocery store and downtown. There is ingress and egress on both roadways and it is easily accessible for everyone east of the river. Transient exposure is good due to its proximity to downtown but not as good as if the site was on Highway 3. Overall this site rates as very good.




Site 6000 State Highway 3 and 3rd Street




Table 9


State Highway 3 and 3rd Street


Co-Tenants Small Businesses

Parking Fair

Adjacent Land Use Small Businesses and Restaurants

Street Conditions Highway 3: 4 lanes with turn lanes (30 MPH)

Traffic Control Stop sign at Highway 3 for 3rd Signal light at Highway 2 and 2nd Street

Visibility Good

Accessibility Excellent

Ingress/Egress Fair

Transient Exposure Excellent

Analysis

Highway 3 traffic counts near this site as well as sites 7000, 8000, and 9000 are 17,300 vehicles daily. The site is just blocks away from Highway 19 where the traffic counts are 11,300 vehicles daily. The transient exposure for this site is excellent. Another plus is its proximity to Malt O Meal, one of Northfield’s largest employers. This site, as well as the next three sites, is also the most convenient for college students. Drawbacks to the site are that it sits back from the adjoining businesses making for poor visibility especially from the north. A pylon sign that is visible from both directions on Highway 3 is recommended. Its ingress and egress is only fair as there would be access only from 3rd Street and cars would have to cross in front of other businesses to park in front of the liquor store. The proposed changes to the intersection at Highway 3 and 3rd Street further worsen the ingress/egress. The number of parking spaces may not be adequate. Overall, this site rates as good.




Site 7000 SWQ State Highway 3 and 2nd Street




Table 10


SWQ State Highway 3 and 2nd Street


Co-Tenants Restaurants

Parking Ample


Street Conditions Highway 3: 4 lanes with turn lanes (30 MPH) 2nd Street: 2 lanes with turn lanes (30 MPH)

Traffic Control Signal light at the intersection of Highway 2 and 2nd





Analysis Although this treeless lot is currently unattractive, it has excellent visibility from all directions. In addition to having all the advantages of site 6000, ingress and egress is available from two streets and the signal light on the corner makes for better access. There are no apparent disadvantages to this site. Overall the site rating is excellent.




Site 8000 SEQ State Highway 3 and 2nd Street




Table 11


SEQ State Highway 3 and 2nd Street



Parking Poor




Visibility Fair


Ingress/Egress Fair


Analysis

This treed lot is too small to accommodate a store that is larger than the current location. The trees limit visibility and parking is inadequate. There are no advantages to the site that are better than the store’s current location. Overall this site rates as poor.




Site 9000 NEQ State Highway 3 and 2nd Street




Table 12


NEQ State Highway 3 and 2nd Street


Co-Tenants Assumed Small Shops and Restaurants

Parking Assumed ample








Analysis The mixed use development proposed for this site will attract more people to the site but care must be taken that the placement of the liquor store is effectively visible. It has all the advantages of Site 7000. Overall the site rating is excellent.




Site 10000 State Highway 3 and St. Olaf Avenue




Table 13


NEQ State Highway 3 and St. Olaf Avenue



Parking Assumed ample


Street Conditions Highway 3: 4 lanes with turn lanes (30 MPH) St. Olaf Avenue: 2 lanes with turn lanes (30 MPH)

Traffic Control Stop sign at the intersection of Highway 3 for St. Olaf





Analysis As with the previous four sites, this site is near the busiest intersection in town. It would also be the most convenient site for college students. It also has the advantage of being ground-up new construction. Drawbacks to this site are that it is not on a signalized intersection. Overall this site rates very good.




Analysis

Assumptions

The sales projections presented in this study are based on the following key assumptions:

• The new facility’s operations, décor, signage, merchandising and physical conditions will be attractive and up to date.

• The 7,000 sales area foot stores will have a large selection of wine and craft beers, and regular wine tasting events.

• Pricing will be competitive in the marketplace.

• Population in the trade area will be at or near levels predicted by the local governments.

• The sales projections are expressed in constant 2015 dollars, with no adjustment made for inflation.

• Sales projections are relative to a September 2016 opening.

• There are no competitive market changes other than those presented in the study.




Methodology The sales forecasts generated in this report for Northfield Municipal Liquors are based on the use of the gravity model (LOCUS Pro). This is done via a market simulation of a sites' primary trade area using important demand and supply information. Once a simulation is created, changes to equilibrium can be introduced for redistributing sales, forming the basis of a sales forecast. Demand information includes determining retail potential by defining where consumers live and what they spend for off-sale liquor purchases. Trade area boundaries are determined by the existing road network, geographic, boundaries and the placement of competition. Population sectors (combinations of census block groups) form the basic grouping of population, and normally range in size between 1,000 and 3,500 people. Sector boundaries fall within the boundaries of census tracts/block groups and usually follow geographic features such as major roads, rivers and city limits. The population used in this study is only that portion that is of legal drinking age. Each population sector is assigned a retail liquor expenditure level and adjusted by major determinants, including family sizes and household incomes. Combining a sector’s population with its expenditure level yields the liquor potential formulated here on an annual basis. The supply components of the gravity model are store sales and an estimate of how much business a particular store generates from inside the trade area. Based on a store’s location, relative to an identified trade area and store size or format, the unit will receive a certain percentage of its business, or draw, from this defined area. The gravity model distributes store sales throughout the trade area based on certain parameters assigned to the store. These include store size (based on sales area), annual volume, draw (business inside the trade area), pulling power and image. Store image is based on customer acceptance of a unit as exhibited by store performance. This value is fairly objective and relates heavily to the strength of other competitors in the area, their distances to one another and their distances to the various population sectors. An image of 100 represents an average image. Stores with above average images are attracting more business than average, and those with below average images exhibit a weakness in consumer acceptance.




Competitor Information & Evaluation

Map Name Total Sales Annual Check Prim Ext Int other

Key Address Area Area Volume Outs Park Ops Cond Cond beer wine liquor merch Adjacent Retail Store Hours

1 Farmington Muni 5,300 3,600 $4,600,000 2 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 Ace Hardware, 10-9 Mon-Thurs,

Elm/3rd Econofoods 10-10 Fri-Sat,

2 Lakeville Iberia 9,300 7,000 $4,400,000 2 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 Small Shops 10-10 Mon-Sat,

County Road 50/Iberia

3 TDF Liquors 900 600 $750,000 2 5 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 Bar 10-9 Mon-Thurs,

Main/Church 9-10 Fri-Sat,

4 Lonsdale Muni 2,000 1,200 $1,300,000 2 6 7 8 8 6 6 6 6 Supermarket, 9-10 Mon-Sat

Ash/8th Small Shops

5 Hy-Vee Liquors 4,700 3,200 $3,200,000 2 4 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 Hy-Vee Supermarket 8-8 Mom-Sat,

Highway 60/Park 8-10 Fri-Sat

6 Haskell's 9,000 6,300 $2,700,000 2 5 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 Pizza Hut, 8-10 Mon-Sat

Highway 60/30th Small Shops

7 Fareway Liquor 1,500 700 $375,000 1 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 CBD 10-8 Mon-Thurs,

Highway 60/1st 10-9 Fri-Sat

8 Northern Liquor 2,000 800 $210,000 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Freestanding 8-10 Mon-Sat

2nd/20th

Evaluation Ratings: 0-N/A; 1-Poor; 5-Average; 10-Excellent




Map Name Total Sales Annual Check Prim Ext Int other

Key Address Area Area Volume Outs Park Ops Cond Cond beer wine liquor merch Adjacent Retail Store Hours

9 Kenyon Muni 3,100 500 $410,000 1 0 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 CBD 10-10 Mon-Sat,

Highway 60/Red Wing

10 Best Buy Liquor 2,300 1,600 $900,000 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 Subway 9-10 Mon-Sat

County Road 24/Spruce

11 Rod's Liquors 2,400 1,200 $1,300,000 2 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Freestanding 9:30-10 Mon-Sat

Hoffman/3rd

12 Northfield Muni 4,000 3,000 $3,200,000 2 2 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 CBD 9-8 Mon-Thurs,

Water/5th 9-10 Fri-Sat

13 Firehouse Liquor 9,000 6,400 $3,400,000 3 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Freestanding 8-10 Mon-Sat

Highway 3/3rd

Totals: 55,500 36,100 $26,745,000

Averages: 4,269 2,777

$/SF: 481.89 740.86

Total Stores = 13

Evaluation Ratings: 0-N/A; 1-Poor; 5-Average; 10-Excellent




Trade Area Data by Sector

Est. Est. 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015

Census 2010 2015 % Growth 2020 % Growth % % % % % % % % % Avg. Hhld Median

Sector Tract Pop. Pop. 2010-2015 Pop. 2015-2020 College Military White Black Asian Other Hisp. < 18 > 65 Size Income

1 705.01 980 1,026 4.7 1,090 6.2 0.0 0.0 91.0 0.4 2.6 1.5 4.4 26.0 18.5 2.22 $64,864

2 705.01 1,522 1,525 0.2 1,588 4.1 69.6 0.0 78.0 2.8 10.1 4.3 4.9 40.1 3.7 2.35 $85,643

3 706.01 699 749 7.2 847 13.1 0.0 0.0 26.7 0.2 0.8 1.2 71.1 37.1 5.4 3.53 $24,874

4 706.01 517 578 11.8 611 5.7 0.0 0.0 78.6 2.7 1.4 2.3 14.9 31.3 11.9 2.23 $43,751

5 706.01 759 683 -10.0 680 -0.4 0.0 0.0 75.7 0.9 3.1 2.0 18.4 33.4 15.6 2.35 $54,699

6 706.01 787 929 18.0 1,091 17.4 0.0 0.0 91.8 0.5 0.8 1.6 5.3 29.1 23.9 2.28 $51,544

7 706.02 2,066 2,095 1.4 2,167 3.4 73.5 0.0 88.9 1.7 4.6 1.9 2.9 42.9 8.6 1.71 $40,073

8 706.02 810 845 4.3 966 14.3 0.0 0.0 90.5 0.5 1.3 2.4 5.3 31.8 11.8 2.61 $61,233

9 705.04 1,591 1,302 -18.2 1,300 -0.2 0.0 0.0 91.4 0.8 2.1 1.6 4.1 23.6 13.2 2.30 $49,650

10 705.04 1,016 864 -15.0 860 -0.5 0.0 0.0 87.4 1.5 2.3 3.0 5.8 30.6 12.5 2.53 $41,259

11 705.03 521 876 68.1 971 10.8 0.0 0.0 94.8 0.5 1.5 1.4 1.8 45.2 13.5 2.69 $83,324

12 705.03 835 710 -15.0 710 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.8 0.5 1.5 1.4 1.8 29.5 13.5 2.76 $83,324

13 705.03 687 724 5.4 804 11.0 0.0 0.0 94.8 0.5 1.5 1.4 1.8 34.2 13.5 2.92 $83,324

14 702.00 505 584 15.6 647 10.8 0.0 0.0 96.5 0.3 1.4 0.7 1.2 29.3 16.0 2.73 $82,469

15 702.00 369 438 18.7 485 10.7 0.0 0.0 96.5 0.3 1.4 0.7 1.2 29.7 16.0 2.83 $82,469

16 704.00 269 308 14.5 326 5.8 0.0 0.0 97.7 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.1 30.6 14.6 2.88 $76,077

17 704.00 574 518 -9.8 515 -0.6 0.0 0.0 96.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 26.8 13.7 2.83 $64,761

18 807.00 584 495 -15.2 495 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.7 0.1 0.3 0.7 6.2 24.4 19.1 2.52 $54,027

19 805.00 430 407 -5.3 405 -0.5 0.0 0.0 95.3 0.8 0.2 1.6 2.1 25.6 16.8 2.57 $85,587

20 702.00 418 510 22.0 587 15.1 0.0 0.0 95.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 2.5 31.8 18.2 2.75 $81,852

21 702.00 642 788 22.7 905 14.8 0.0 0.0 95.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 2.5 31.9 18.2 2.73 $81,852

22 615.02 439 619 41.0 680 9.9 0.0 0.0 96.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 38.5 16.8 2.86 $81,461

23 614.02 656 652 -0.6 650 -0.3 0.0 0.0 96.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.6 27.9 13.9 2.53 $79,071

24 615.01 317 335 5.7 358 6.9 0.0 0.0 95.7 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.7 25.5 15.5 2.90 $76,774




Est. Est. 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015

Census 2010 2015 % Growth 2020 % Growth % % % % % % % % % Avg. Hhld Median

Sector Tract Pop. Pop. 2010-2015 Pop. 2015-2020 College Military White Black Asian Other Hisp. < 18 > 65 Size Income

25 615.01 447 525 17.4 590 12.4 0.0 0.0 96.9 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.5 25.0 17.4 2.74 $89,647

26 615.02 970 990 2.1 1,081 9.2 0.0 0.0 96.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.5 31.1 16.8 2.62 $81,461

27 615.02 631 599 -5.1 595 -0.7 0.0 0.0 96.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.6 30.2 16.7 2.94 $81,983

28 702.00 426 422 -0.9 420 -0.5 0.0 0.0 96.5 0.3 1.3 0.7 1.2 26.1 16.0 2.58 $82,498

29 702.00 522 564 8.0 604 7.1 0.0 0.0 96.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.7 27.8 16.4 2.64 $82,779

30 702.00 575 588 2.3 627 6.6 0.0 0.0 96.8 0.3 1.1 0.6 1.2 28.4 16.7 2.89 $69,404

31 701.00 941 924 -1.8 920 -0.4 0.0 0.0 96.3 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.9 27.2 16.1 2.68 $83,586

32 701.00 405 574 41.7 611 6.4 0.0 0.0 96.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 34.9 15.4 3.04 $80,892

33 701.00 705 895 27.0 978 9.3 0.0 0.0 95.5 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.6 44.0 6.2 2.91 $73,107

34 701.00 556 585 5.2 640 9.4 0.0 0.0 95.5 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.6 39.5 6.2 2.69 $73,107

35 701.00 818 762 -6.8 760 -0.3 0.0 0.0 95.5 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.6 36.6 6.2 2.92 $73,107

Totals: 24,989 25,988 27,564

Averages: 4.0 6.1 10.0 0.0 90.3 0.7 2.0 1.6 5.4 32.8 13.4 2.52 $66,984




CURRENT MARKET SIMULATION

TRADE AREA TOTALS

Trade Area Aug 2015 Population 25,988 Potential 10,260,526 Facility Volume 8,623,500 Float Amount 1,637,026 Float Percent 15.95% P.C.E. 394.82 STORES IN OPERATION

Facility ---Aug 2015 --- Sales Map Key Name Volume /SqFt Area Draw Image 1 Farmington Muni 4,600,000 1277.78 3,600 8 157 2 Lakeville Iberia 4,400,000 628.57 7,000 3 94 3 TDF Liquors 750,000 1250.00 600 15 145 4 Lonsdale Muni 1,300,000 1083.33 1,200 75 136 5 Hy-Vee Liquors 3,200,000 1000.00 3,200 10 119 6 Haskell's 2,700,000 428.57 6,300 15 54 7 Fareway Liquor 375,000 535.71 700 10 58 8 Northern Liquor 210,000 262.50 800 15 44 9 Kenyon Muni 410,000 820.00 500 20 102 10 Best Buy Liquor 900,000 562.50 1,600 10 61 11 Rod's Liquors 1,300,000 1083.33 1,200 10 122 12 Northfield Muni 3,200,000 1066.67 3,000 90 126 13 Firehouse Liquor 3,400,000 531.25 6,400 90 83 Total 26,745,000 36,100 Average 2,057,308 740.86 2,777 100




SECTOR SUMMARY

Sector -----Aug 2015----- -------Float------- Map Key Population PCE Potential Percent Amount 1 1,026 407.20 417,787 13.46 56,233 2 1,525 424.71 647,683 13.60 88,083 3 749 293.06 219,502 13.95 30,621 4 578 373.97 216,155 13.50 29,185 5 683 387.86 264,908 13.93 36,913 6 929 385.66 358,278 13.62 48,796 7 2,095 388.87 814,683 14.05 114,478 8 845 387.44 327,387 13.33 43,651 9 1,302 381.79 497,091 13.18 65,518 10 864 358.46 309,709 13.29 41,174 11 876 409.11 358,380 13.49 48,340 12 710 406.57 288,665 13.78 39,780 13 724 401.00 290,324 13.71 39,805 14 584 406.84 237,595 13.41 31,852 15 438 403.29 176,641 14.99 26,484 16 308 395.27 121,743 16.38 19,943 17 518 384.35 199,093 22.09 43,985 18 495 380.57 188,382 26.49 49,908 19 407 415.77 169,218 22.16 37,506 20 510 405.52 206,815 17.92 37,055 21 788 406.24 320,117 14.49 46,376 22 619 401.29 248,399 16.91 42,004 23 652 410.94 267,933 21.82 58,472 24 335 395.31 132,429 18.24 24,149 25 525 413.07 216,862 17.52 37,997 26 990 409.91 405,811 14.93 60,592 27 599 399.07 239,043 17.20 41,117 28 422 412.43 174,045 15.13 26,338 29 564 410.44 231,488 17.87 41,364 30 588 387.78 228,015 20.69 47,185 31 924 409.73 378,591 19.74 74,717 32 574 394.75 226,587 19.30 43,736 33 895 391.17 350,097 18.40 64,411 34 585 398.72 233,251 18.38 42,862 35 762 390.84 297,820 18.94 56,399 Total 25,988 10,260,526 1,637,026 Average 394.82 15.95




PROJECTED MARKETPLACE

TRADE AREA TOTALS

Trade Area Aug 2015 Sep 2017 % Change Population 25,988 26,206 .84 Potential 10,260,526 10,346,237 .84 Facility Volume 8,596,051 8,668,089 .84 Float Amount 1,664,475 1,678,148 .82 Float Percent 16.22 16.22 P.C.E. 394.82 394.80 .00 MARKET CHANGE

A NEW 7,700 SALES AREA SQUARE FOOT LAKEVILLE MUNICIPAL LIQUORS OPENS AT MAP KEY 100

AT THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE 35 AND COUNTY ROAD 70

Forecast Current Fcst Facility ---Sep 2017 --- ----Aug 2015 ---- T.A. % Sales Map Key Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Diff. Chg Area Draw Image 1 Farmington Muni 4,600,000 1277.78 -38,135 -10 3,600 8 157 2 Lakeville Iberia 4,400,000 628.57 -30,746 -23 7,000 3 94 3 TDF Liquors 750,000 1250.00 -9,965 -9 600 15 145 4 Lonsdale Muni 1,231,197 1026.00 1,300,000 1083.33 -51,603 -5 1,200 75 136 5 Hy-Vee Liquors 3,200,000 1000.00 -6,337 -2 3,200 10 119 6 Haskell's 2,700,000 428.57 -8,894 -2 6,300 15 54 7 Fareway Liquor 375,000 535.71 -614 -2 700 10 58 8 Northern Liquor 210,000 262.50 -506 -2 800 15 44 9 Kenyon Muni 410,000 820.00 -1,353 -2 500 20 102 10 Best Buy Liquor 900,000 562.50 -2,460 -3 1,600 10 61 11 Rod's Liquors 1,300,000 1083.33 -3,857 -3 1,200 10 122 12 Northfield Muni 3,195,380 1065.13 3,200,000 1066.67 -4,158 0 3,000 90 126 13 Firehouse Liquor 3,392,373 530.06 3,400,000 531.25 -6,865 0 6,400 90 83 100 Lakeville CR 70 0 0.00 210,081 0 7,700 5 100 Totals 29,095,450 26,745,000 44,588 Averages 2,078,246 664.28 2,057,308 740.86 3,129 100




SCENARIO 1A

A NEW 7,000 SALES AREA SQUARE FOOT NORTHFIELD MUNICIPAL LIQUOR STORE OPENS AT SITE 1000

AT THE INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 3 AND CLINTON LANE REPLACING THE NORTHFIELD MUNICIPAL LIQUOR STORE AT MAP KEY 12

THE MARKET CHANGE IS IN EFFECT

Forecast Current Fcst Facility ---Sep 2017 --- ----Aug 2015 ---- T.A. % Sales Map Key Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Diff. Chg Area Draw Image 1 Farmington Muni 4,600,000 1277.78 -89,029 -24 3,600 8 157 2 Lakeville Iberia 4,400,000 628.57 -45,128 -34 7,000 3 94 3 TDF Liquors 750,000 1250.00 -19,429 -17 600 15 145 4 Lonsdale Muni 1,176,606 980.51 1,300,000 1083.33 -92,545 -9 1,200 75 136 5 Hy-Vee Liquors 3,200,000 1000.00 -74,668 -23 3,200 10 119 6 Haskell's 2,700,000 428.57 -93,795 -23 6,300 15 54 7 Fareway Liquor 375,000 535.71 -9,034 -24 700 10 58 8 Northern Liquor 210,000 262.50 -7,681 -24 800 15 44 9 Kenyon Muni 410,000 820.00 -13,241 -16 500 20 102 10 Best Buy Liquor 900,000 562.50 -17,215 -19 1,600 10 61 11 Rod's Liquors 1,300,000 1083.33 -23,879 -18 1,200 10 122 12 Northfield Muni --closed-- ----- 3,200,000 1066.67 -2,880,000 90 126 13 Firehouse Liquor 2,349,294 367.08 3,400,000 531.25 -945,636 -31 6,400 90 83 100 Lakeville CR 70 0 0.00 183,963 0 7,700 5 100 1000 Northfield Site 4,635,452 662.21 0 0.00 4,171,906 0 7,000 90 124 Totals 25,948,270 26,745,000 44,588 Averages 1,853,448 542.85 2,057,308 740.86 3,414 102 THREE-YEAR GROWTH PATTERN - SITE 1000

Forecast Forecast Forecast Facility ---Sep 2017--- ---Sep 2018--- ---Sep 2019--- Map Keys Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Draw Image 1000 Northfield Site 4,635,452 662.21 4,719,830 674.26 4,876,609 696.66 90 124 Inflation is 0%




STORE VOLUME REPORT BY SECTOR - SITE 1000

Facility Map Key = 1000 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 2 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 56.46 237,970 1,035 421,452 15.17 1.19 2 56.71 369,489 1,534 651,505 15.22 1.48 3 56.43 126,172 763 223,605 15.34 1.88 4 56.50 123,192 583 218,025 15.21 1.26 5 56.36 149,086 682 264,521 15.32 1.81 6 56.44 206,991 951 366,763 15.24 1.35 7 56.08 459,069 2,105 818,571 15.43 1.90 8 44.33 148,066 862 333,973 15.05 1.67 9 51.23 254,653 1,302 497,091 14.99 .63 10 55.54 171,825 863 309,351 15.01 .48 11 55.73 202,693 889 363,699 15.20 1.06 12 55.38 159,851 710 288,665 15.32 1.52 13 53.95 159,018 735 294,735 15.25 1.38 14 46.02 111,030 593 241,256 15.12 1.59 15 30.41 54,459 444 179,061 15.92 4.77 16 25.01 30,741 311 122,929 16.27 6.37 17 30.98 61,556 517 198,709 17.28 8.47 18 16.00 30,137 495 188,382 17.32 11.98 19 38.01 64,324 407 169,218 17.30 8.07 20 48.38 102,022 520 210,870 16.89 5.17 21 56.14 183,376 804 326,617 15.44 2.46 22 51.63 129,914 627 251,609 16.30 4.71 23 15.91 42,621 652 267,933 17.26 10.37 24 16.91 22,592 338 133,615 18.95 8.40 25 10.82 23,867 534 220,579 18.50 8.66 26 54.91 225,530 1,002 410,730 15.86 2.94 27 40.15 95,821 598 238,644 18.49 5.36 28 37.23 64,798 422 174,045 18.05 4.05 29 21.16 49,507 570 233,951 18.84 7.59 30 6.90 15,887 594 230,341 17.24 11.90 31 16.50 62,394 923 378,181 19.21 9.04 32 3.43 7,841 579 228,560 17.19 12.88 33 2.80 9,918 907 354,791 17.10 13.04 34 3.25 7,678 593 236,441 17.08 12.68 35 2.63 7,822 762 297,820 17.14 13.45 Sub Total 40.32 4,171,907 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Other Sectors .00 0 0 0 .00 TA Total 40.32 4,171,906 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 463,545 Sales Forecast 4,635,451




SCENARIO 1B


AT THE INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 3 AND CLINTON LANE

THE NORTHFIELD MUNICIPAL LIQUOR STORE AT MAP KEY 12 REMAINS OPEN


Forecast Current Fcst Facility ---Sep 2017 --- ----Aug 2015 ---- T.A. % Sales Map Key Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Diff. Chg Area Draw Image 1 Farmington Muni 4,600,000 1277.78 -105,001 -29 3,600 8 157 2 Lakeville Iberia 4,400,000 628.57 -52,379 -40 7,000 3 94 3 TDF Liquors 750,000 1250.00 -24,483 -22 600 15 145 4 Lonsdale Muni 1,152,704 960.59 1,300,000 1083.33 -110,472 -11 1,200 75 136 5 Hy-Vee Liquors 3,200,000 1000.00 -94,664 -30 3,200 10 119 6 Haskell's 2,700,000 428.57 -118,192 -29 6,300 15 54 7 Fareway Liquor 375,000 535.71 -11,544 -31 700 10 58 8 Northern Liquor 210,000 262.50 -9,704 -31 800 15 44 9 Kenyon Muni 410,000 820.00 -18,227 -22 500 20 102 10 Best Buy Liquor 900,000 562.50 -21,221 -24 1,600 10 61 11 Rod's Liquors 1,300,000 1083.33 -28,203 -22 1,200 10 122 12 Northfield Muni 1,722,767 574.26 3,200,000 1066.67 -1,329,510 -46 3,000 90 126 13 Firehouse Liquor 1,956,646 305.73 3,400,000 531.25 -1,299,019 -42 6,400 90 83 100 Lakeville CR 70 0 0.00 170,259 0 7,700 5 100 1000.1 Northfield Site 3,441,053 491.58 0 0.00 3,096,948 0 7,000 90 124 Totals 24,801,540 26,745,000 44,588 Averages 1,653,436 488.22 2,057,308 740.86 3,387 102 THREE-YEAR GROWTH PATTERN - SITE 1000.1

Forecast Forecast Forecast Facility ---Sep 2017--- ---Sep 2018--- ---Sep 2019--- Map Keys Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Draw Image 1000.1 Northfield Site 3,441,053 491.58 3,519,233 502.75 3,645,064 520.72 90 124 Inflation is 0%





Facility Map Key = 1000.1 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 2 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 40.04 168,739 1,035 421,452 15.17 1.50 2 38.49 250,737 1,534 651,505 15.22 1.93 3 37.32 83,441 763 223,605 15.34 2.49 4 39.76 86,681 583 218,025 15.21 1.60 5 38.57 102,032 682 264,521 15.32 2.27 6 40.78 149,570 951 366,763 15.24 1.56 7 41.56 340,160 2,105 818,571 15.43 1.90 8 39.99 133,546 862 333,973 15.05 1.67 9 43.76 217,545 1,302 497,091 14.99 .63 10 44.55 137,821 863 309,351 15.01 .48 11 41.93 152,497 889 363,699 15.20 1.20 12 42.17 121,716 710 288,665 15.32 1.52 13 42.48 125,208 735 294,735 15.25 1.38 14 40.89 98,639 593 241,256 15.12 1.59 15 29.49 52,811 444 179,061 15.92 4.77 16 24.51 30,129 311 122,929 16.27 6.37 17 27.48 54,601 517 198,709 17.28 8.47 18 14.99 28,237 495 188,382 17.32 11.98 19 30.83 52,169 407 169,218 17.30 8.07 20 38.58 81,345 520 210,870 16.89 5.17 21 35.19 114,932 804 326,617 15.44 3.33 22 22.01 55,372 627 251,609 16.30 6.79 23 2.47 6,615 652 267,933 17.26 14.80 24 3.46 4,620 338 133,615 18.95 12.22 25 10.06 22,191 534 220,579 18.50 8.66 26 32.74 134,469 1,002 410,730 15.86 3.98 27 31.53 75,241 598 238,644 18.49 5.36 28 35.10 61,097 422 174,045 18.05 4.05 29 20.89 48,873 570 233,951 18.84 7.59 30 6.89 15,860 594 230,341 17.24 11.90 31 15.13 57,226 923 378,181 19.21 9.04 32 3.37 7,713 579 228,560 17.19 12.88 33 2.76 9,800 907 354,791 17.10 13.04 34 3.20 7,576 593 236,441 17.08 12.68 35 2.60 7,738 762 297,820 17.14 13.45 Sub Total 29.93 3,096,948 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Other Sectors .00 0 0 0 .00 TA Total 29.93 3,096,948 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 344,105 Sales Forecast 3,441,053




SCENARIO 2A


AT THE INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 3 FRONTAGE AND PROFESSIONAL DRIVE

REPLACING THE NORTHFIELD MUNICIPAL LIQUOR STORE AT MAP KEY 12








Facility Map Key = 2000 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 2 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 57.46 242,168 1,035 421,452 15.17 .82 2 57.77 376,398 1,534 651,505 15.22 1.09 3 57.38 128,303 763 223,605 15.34 1.53 4 57.39 125,120 583 218,025 15.21 .91 5 57.31 151,593 682 264,521 15.32 1.46 6 57.33 210,281 951 366,763 15.24 1.00 7 57.04 466,919 2,105 818,571 15.43 1.55 8 40.96 136,790 862 333,973 15.05 2.06 9 48.91 243,118 1,302 497,091 14.99 .94 10 55.43 171,467 863 309,351 15.01 .34 11 56.34 204,897 889 363,699 15.20 .76 12 55.92 161,418 710 288,665 15.32 1.25 13 53.80 158,564 735 294,735 15.25 1.25 14 43.25 104,344 593 241,256 15.12 1.89 15 26.04 46,619 444 179,061 15.92 5.14 16 21.32 26,213 311 122,929 16.27 6.63 17 27.91 55,468 517 198,709 17.28 8.52 18 13.72 25,855 495 188,382 17.32 11.97 19 37.49 63,446 407 169,218 17.30 7.81 20 47.53 100,236 520 210,870 16.89 5.04 21 57.17 186,711 804 326,617 15.44 2.11 22 52.72 132,650 627 251,609 16.30 4.34 23 15.83 42,416 652 267,933 17.26 9.99 24 17.05 22,777 338 133,615 18.95 8.05 25 10.89 24,015 534 220,579 18.50 8.31 26 55.93 229,706 1,002 410,730 15.86 2.59 27 41.03 97,910 598 238,644 18.49 5.01 28 32.79 57,068 422 174,045 18.05 4.43 29 16.90 39,534 570 233,951 18.84 7.97 30 4.94 11,376 594 230,341 17.24 12.29 31 14.34 54,218 923 378,181 19.21 9.09 32 2.63 6,014 579 228,560 17.19 13.04 34 2.27 5,366 593 236,441 17.08 13.06 Sub Total 42.39 4,108,976 24,537 9,693,626 16.16 Other Sectors 1.88 12,286 1,669 652,611 17.12 TA Total 39.83 4,121,262 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 457,918 Sales Forecast 4,579,180




SCENARIO 2B

A NEW 7,000 SALES AREA SQUARE FOOT NORTHFIELD MUNICIPAL LIQUOR STORE OPENS AT SITE 2000.1

AT THE INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 3 FRONTAGE AND PROFESSIONAL DRIVE

THE NORTHFIELD MUNICIPAL LIQUOR STORE AT MAP KEY 12 REMAINS OPEN


Forecast Current Fcst Facility ---Sep 2017 --- ----Aug 2015 ---- T.A. % Sales Map Key Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Diff. Chg Area Draw Image 1 Farmington Muni 4,600,000 1277.78 -105,575 -29 3,600 8 157 2 Lakeville Iberia 4,400,000 628.57 -52,371 -40 7,000 3 94 3 TDF Liquors 750,000 1250.00 -23,238 -21 600 15 145 4 Lonsdale Muni 1,169,754 974.79 1,300,000 1083.33 -97,685 -10 1,200 75 136 5 Hy-Vee Liquors 3,200,000 1000.00 -86,625 -27 3,200 10 119 6 Haskell's 2,700,000 428.57 -108,040 -27 6,300 15 54 7 Fareway Liquor 375,000 535.71 -10,594 -28 700 10 58 8 Northern Liquor 210,000 262.50 -8,861 -28 800 15 44 9 Kenyon Muni 410,000 820.00 -16,109 -20 500 20 102 10 Best Buy Liquor 900,000 562.50 -21,006 -23 1,600 10 61 11 Rod's Liquors 1,300,000 1083.33 -28,001 -22 1,200 10 122 12 Northfield Muni 1,693,496 564.50 3,200,000 1066.67 -1,355,854 -47 3,000 90 126 13 Firehouse Liquor 1,974,447 308.51 3,400,000 531.25 -1,282,997 -42 6,400 90 83 100 Lakeville CR 70 0 0.00 171,295 0 7,700 5 100 2000.1 Northfield Site 3,411,390 487.34 0 0.00 3,070,251 0 7,000 90 120 Totals 24,977,520 26,745,000 44,588 Averages 1,665,168 491.68 2,057,308 740.86 3,387 101 THREE-YEAR GROWTH PATTERN - SITE 2000.1

Forecast Forecast Forecast Facility ---Sep 2017--- ---Sep 2018--- ---Sep 2019--- Map Keys Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Draw Image 2000.1 Northfield Site 3,411,390 487.34 3,488,519 498.36 3,613,510 516.22 90 120 Inflation is 0%




STORE VOLUME REPORT BY SECTOR - SITE 2000.1

Facility Map Key = 2000.1 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 2 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 41.86 176,411 1,035 421,452 15.17 1.01 2 40.33 262,724 1,534 651,505 15.22 1.45 3 38.86 86,885 763 223,605 15.34 2.07 4 41.34 90,122 583 218,025 15.21 1.15 5 39.81 105,295 682 264,521 15.32 1.90 6 42.00 154,053 951 366,763 15.24 1.17 7 42.64 349,020 2,105 818,571 15.43 1.55 8 36.75 122,749 862 333,973 15.05 2.06 9 41.56 206,610 1,302 497,091 14.99 .94 10 44.64 138,083 863 309,351 15.01 .34 11 43.35 157,653 889 363,699 15.20 .76 12 42.77 123,455 710 288,665 15.32 1.25 13 42.32 124,718 735 294,735 15.25 1.25 14 38.32 92,445 593 241,256 15.12 1.89 15 25.22 45,166 444 179,061 15.92 5.14 16 20.90 25,690 311 122,929 16.27 6.63 17 24.60 48,874 517 198,709 17.28 8.52 18 12.83 24,173 495 188,382 17.32 11.97 19 30.34 51,344 407 169,218 17.30 7.81 20 37.71 79,529 520 210,870 16.89 5.04 21 36.78 120,119 804 326,617 15.44 2.91 22 23.26 58,526 627 251,609 16.30 6.33 23 2.42 6,475 652 267,933 17.26 14.33 24 3.38 4,521 338 133,615 18.95 11.84 25 10.12 22,330 534 220,579 18.50 8.31 26 33.86 139,055 1,002 410,730 15.86 3.62 27 32.36 77,232 598 238,644 18.49 5.01 28 30.84 53,672 422 174,045 18.05 4.43 29 16.68 39,021 570 233,951 18.84 7.97 30 4.93 11,358 594 230,341 17.24 12.29 31 13.11 49,589 923 378,181 19.21 9.09 32 2.59 5,914 579 228,560 17.19 13.04 34 2.24 5,294 593 236,441 17.08 13.06 Sub Total 31.55 3,058,106 24,537 9,693,626 16.16 Other Sectors 1.86 12,145 1,669 652,611 17.12 TA Total 29.68 3,070,251 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 341,139 Sales Forecast 3,411,390




SCENARIO 3


AT THE INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 3 AND WOODLEY STREET



Forecast Current Fcst Facility ---Sep 2017 --- ----Aug 2015 ---- T.A. % Sales Map Key Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Diff. Chg Area Draw Image 1 Farmington Muni 4,600,000 1277.78 -105,096 -29 3,600 8 157 2 Lakeville Iberia 4,400,000 628.57 -49,579 -38 7,000 3 94 3 TDF Liquors 750,000 1250.00 -20,725 -18 600 15 145 4 Lonsdale Muni 1,179,444 982.87 1,300,000 1083.33 -90,417 -9 1,200 75 136 5 Hy-Vee Liquors 3,200,000 1000.00 -72,554 -23 3,200 10 119 6 Haskell's 2,700,000 428.57 -91,057 -22 6,300 15 54 7 Fareway Liquor 375,000 535.71 -8,795 -23 700 10 58 8 Northern Liquor 210,000 262.50 -7,404 -24 800 15 44 9 Kenyon Muni 410,000 820.00 -12,833 -16 500 20 102 10 Best Buy Liquor 900,000 562.50 -21,138 -23 1,600 10 61 11 Rod's Liquors 1,300,000 1083.33 -29,723 -23 1,200 10 122 12 Northfield Muni --closed-- ----- 3,200,000 1066.67 -2,880,000 90 126 13 Firehouse Liquor 2,265,661 354.01 3,400,000 531.25 -1,020,906 -33 6,400 90 83 100 Lakeville CR 70 0 0.00 177,580 0 7,700 5 100 3000 Northfield Site 4,752,484 678.93 0 0.00 4,277,236 0 7,000 90 125 Totals 25,447,020 26,745,000 44,589 Averages 1,817,644 532.36 2,057,308 740.86 3,414 102 THREE-YEAR GROWTH PATTERN - SITE 3000






Facility Map Key = 3000 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 2 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 58.93 248,341 1,035 421,452 15.17 .67 2 59.49 387,607 1,534 651,505 15.22 .90 3 59.36 132,728 763 223,605 15.34 1.32 4 59.16 128,983 583 218,025 15.21 .70 5 59.26 156,768 682 264,521 15.32 1.24 6 59.14 216,895 951 366,763 15.24 .79 7 59.04 483,254 2,105 818,571 15.43 1.34 8 41.09 137,231 862 333,973 15.05 2.24 9 48.82 242,676 1,302 497,091 14.99 1.15 10 55.61 172,018 863 309,351 15.01 .50 11 57.28 208,322 889 363,699 15.20 .75 12 56.97 164,462 710 288,665 15.32 1.22 13 54.41 160,377 735 294,735 15.25 1.32 14 43.18 104,180 593 241,256 15.12 2.10 15 26.44 47,336 444 179,061 15.92 5.35 16 21.99 27,032 311 122,929 16.27 6.83 17 29.74 59,102 517 198,709 17.28 8.64 18 15.60 29,396 495 188,382 17.32 12.07 19 40.77 68,998 407 169,218 17.30 7.77 20 49.23 103,805 520 210,870 16.89 5.08 21 58.90 192,362 804 326,617 15.44 1.99 22 55.87 140,577 627 251,609 16.30 4.14 23 19.43 52,068 652 267,933 17.26 9.79 24 20.39 27,249 338 133,615 18.95 7.84 25 13.32 29,388 534 220,579 18.50 8.10 26 58.33 239,563 1,002 410,730 15.86 2.38 27 44.69 106,639 598 238,644 18.49 4.80 28 33.30 57,960 422 174,045 18.05 4.61 29 17.85 41,758 570 233,951 18.84 8.14 30 5.57 12,822 594 230,341 17.24 12.46 31 17.51 66,225 923 378,181 19.21 8.88 32 3.53 8,070 579 228,560 17.19 12.83 33 2.60 9,208 907 354,791 17.10 13.23 34 2.89 6,842 593 236,441 17.08 12.98 35 2.35 6,994 762 297,820 17.14 13.73 Sub Total 41.34 4,277,235 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Other Sectors .00 0 0 0 .00 TA Total 41.34 4,277,236 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 475,248 Sales Forecast 4,752,484




SCENARIO 4


AT THE INTERSECTION OF WATER STREET AND 8TH STREET



Forecast Current Fcst Facility ---Sep 2017 --- ----Aug 2015 ---- T.A. % Sales Map Key Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Diff. Chg Area Draw Image 1 Farmington Muni 4,600,000 1277.78 -12,957 -4 3,600 8 157 2 Lakeville Iberia 4,400,000 628.57 -23,607 -18 7,000 3 94 3 TDF Liquors 750,000 1250.00 -5,820 -5 600 15 145 4 Lonsdale Muni 1,254,594 1045.50 1,300,000 1083.33 -34,055 -3 1,200 75 136 5 Hy-Vee Liquors 3,200,000 1000.00 9,311 3 3,200 10 119 6 Haskell's 2,700,000 428.57 9,779 2 6,300 15 54 7 Fareway Liquor 375,000 535.71 1,350 4 700 10 58 8 Northern Liquor 210,000 262.50 1,065 3 800 15 44 9 Kenyon Muni 410,000 820.00 4,109 5 500 20 102 10 Best Buy Liquor 900,000 562.50 7,318 8 1,600 10 61 11 Rod's Liquors 1,300,000 1083.33 9,700 7 1,200 10 122 12 Northfield Muni --closed-- ----- 3,200,000 1066.67 -2,880,000 90 126 13 Firehouse Liquor 3,501,369 547.09 3,400,000 531.25 91,232 3 6,400 90 83 100 Lakeville CR 70 0 0.00 221,876 0 7,700 5 100 4000 Northfield Site 2,784,514 795.58 0 0.00 2,645,289 0 3,500 95 115 Totals 30,204,960 26,745,000 44,589 Averages 2,157,497 681.83 2,057,308 740.86 3,164 101 THREE-YEAR GROWTH PATTERN - SITE 4000






Facility Map Key = 4000 Sep 2017 Draw = 95 Market Share Cutoff = 2 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 44.81 188,861 1,035 421,452 15.17 .28 2 45.16 294,236 1,534 651,505 15.22 .52 3 43.30 96,826 763 223,605 15.34 1.10 4 43.62 95,104 583 218,025 15.21 .54 5 42.60 112,679 682 264,521 15.32 1.12 6 42.91 157,394 951 366,763 15.24 .72 7 41.81 342,230 2,105 818,571 15.43 1.27 8 19.25 64,293 862 333,973 15.05 2.63 9 28.51 141,697 1,302 497,091 14.99 1.47 10 37.50 116,007 863 309,351 15.01 .71 11 41.48 150,867 889 363,699 15.20 .57 12 40.86 117,947 710 288,665 15.32 .98 13 36.60 107,870 735 294,735 15.25 1.25 14 21.92 52,873 593 241,256 15.12 2.37 15 6.98 12,503 444 179,061 15.92 5.70 16 4.82 5,925 311 122,929 16.27 7.03 17 6.48 12,870 517 198,709 17.28 8.61 19 13.55 22,932 407 169,218 17.30 7.44 20 23.75 50,078 520 210,870 16.89 4.88 21 42.82 139,865 804 326,617 15.44 1.59 22 33.68 84,734 627 251,609 16.30 3.82 23 3.68 9,850 652 267,933 17.26 9.47 24 4.86 6,493 338 133,615 18.95 7.60 25 2.64 5,813 534 220,579 18.50 7.98 26 39.50 162,254 1,002 410,730 15.86 2.21 27 20.06 47,860 598 238,644 18.49 4.72 28 11.05 19,235 422 174,045 18.05 4.91 29 2.84 6,639 570 233,951 18.84 8.52 31 3.21 12,127 923 378,181 19.21 8.81 Sub Total 29.94 2,638,063 22,276 8,809,901 16.05 Other Sectors .47 7,225 3,930 1,536,336 17.17 TA Total 25.57 2,645,289 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 139,226 Sales Forecast 2,784,514




SCENARIO 5


AT THE INTERSECTION OF DIVISION STREET AND 7TH STREET









Facility Map Key = 5000 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 2 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 60.48 254,891 1,035 421,452 15.17 .18 2 61.08 397,923 1,534 651,505 15.22 .40 3 59.98 134,114 763 223,605 15.34 1.04 4 59.38 129,465 583 218,025 15.21 .53 5 59.20 156,602 682 264,521 15.32 1.11 6 58.73 215,415 951 366,763 15.24 .76 7 58.40 478,035 2,105 818,571 15.43 1.32 8 35.95 120,048 862 333,973 15.05 2.76 9 45.41 225,716 1,302 497,091 14.99 1.59 10 53.62 165,884 863 309,351 15.01 .81 11 57.49 209,105 889 363,699 15.20 .58 12 57.65 166,416 710 288,665 15.32 .94 13 53.89 158,835 735 294,735 15.25 1.27 14 39.17 94,507 593 241,256 15.12 2.48 15 20.12 36,031 444 179,061 15.92 5.81 16 16.70 20,535 311 122,929 16.27 7.11 17 24.59 48,857 517 198,709 17.28 8.61 18 11.52 21,705 495 188,382 17.32 11.95 19 39.21 66,354 407 169,218 17.30 7.35 20 47.89 100,985 520 210,870 16.89 4.84 21 60.54 197,728 804 326,617 15.44 1.48 22 56.58 142,354 627 251,609 16.30 3.70 23 17.47 46,814 652 267,933 17.26 9.35 24 18.46 24,670 338 133,615 18.95 7.54 25 11.13 24,547 534 220,579 18.50 7.95 26 58.30 239,449 1,002 410,730 15.86 2.17 27 41.89 99,978 598 238,644 18.49 4.75 28 27.64 48,107 422 174,045 18.05 4.97 29 12.06 28,225 570 233,951 18.84 8.58 30 3.34 7,695 594 230,341 17.24 12.70 31 13.76 52,020 923 378,181 19.21 8.87 32 2.32 5,300 579 228,560 17.19 12.82 Sub Total 43.55 4,118,310 23,944 9,457,185 16.14 Other Sectors 1.67 14,840 2,262 889,052 17.11 TA Total 39.95 4,133,150 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 459,239 Sales Forecast 4,592,388




SCENARIO 6


AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 3 AND 3RD STREET









Facility Map Key = 6000 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 1 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 58.82 247,907 1,035 421,452 15.17 .50 2 60.50 394,163 1,534 651,505 15.22 .46 3 60.81 135,983 763 223,605 15.34 .79 4 60.32 131,518 583 218,025 15.21 .20 5 60.42 159,826 682 264,521 15.32 .79 6 59.77 219,219 951 366,763 15.24 .44 7 59.75 489,058 2,105 818,571 15.43 .99 8 36.39 121,525 862 333,973 15.05 2.74 9 44.66 222,001 1,302 497,091 14.99 1.70 10 52.46 162,294 863 309,351 15.01 .98 11 55.69 202,542 889 363,699 15.20 .90 12 55.76 160,951 710 288,665 15.32 1.28 13 51.97 153,188 735 294,735 15.25 1.58 14 38.36 92,549 593 241,256 15.12 2.63 15 20.93 37,477 444 179,061 15.92 5.89 16 16.93 20,811 311 122,929 16.27 7.33 17 24.60 48,890 517 198,709 17.28 8.94 18 12.17 22,924 495 188,382 17.32 12.29 19 39.15 66,254 407 169,218 17.30 7.62 20 46.43 97,912 520 210,870 16.89 5.18 21 59.34 193,826 804 326,617 15.44 1.70 22 57.88 145,635 627 251,609 16.30 3.60 23 20.43 54,751 652 267,933 17.26 9.25 24 21.73 29,028 338 133,615 18.95 7.31 25 13.91 30,690 534 220,579 18.50 7.64 26 59.87 245,918 1,002 410,730 15.86 1.88 27 45.73 109,122 598 238,644 18.49 4.42 28 30.47 53,027 422 174,045 18.05 4.74 29 14.74 34,494 570 233,951 18.84 8.36 30 4.59 10,569 594 230,341 17.24 12.46 31 17.14 64,803 923 378,181 19.21 8.58 32 3.27 7,478 579 228,560 17.19 12.54 33 2.38 8,432 907 354,791 17.10 12.95 34 2.65 6,273 593 236,441 17.08 12.70 35 2.13 6,349 762 297,820 17.14 13.45 Sub Total 40.47 4,187,386 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Other Sectors .00 0 0 0 .00 TA Total 40.47 4,187,385 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 465,265 Sales Forecast 4,652,650




SCENARIO 7


AT THE INTERSECTION OF SOUTWEST STATE HIGHWAY 3 AND 2ND STREET









Facility Map Key = 7000 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 2 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 59.92 252,550 1,035 421,452 15.17 .52 2 61.83 402,837 1,534 651,505 15.22 .39 3 62.35 139,413 763 223,605 15.34 .70 4 61.48 134,031 583 218,025 15.21 .17 5 61.81 163,512 682 264,521 15.32 .73 6 60.78 222,902 951 366,763 15.24 .47 7 60.99 499,232 2,105 818,571 15.43 1.00 8 38.33 128,007 862 333,973 15.05 2.85 9 46.05 228,909 1,302 497,091 14.99 1.80 10 53.52 165,567 863 309,351 15.01 1.08 11 56.85 206,765 889 363,699 15.20 .96 12 57.19 165,077 710 288,665 15.32 1.30 13 53.47 157,604 735 294,735 15.25 1.64 14 40.27 97,144 593 241,256 15.12 2.73 15 24.17 43,283 444 179,061 15.92 5.99 16 20.61 25,332 311 122,929 16.27 7.42 17 30.61 60,827 517 198,709 17.28 8.99 18 17.62 33,186 495 188,382 17.32 12.32 19 45.62 77,202 407 169,218 17.30 7.59 20 50.57 106,642 520 210,870 16.89 5.19 21 61.18 199,813 804 326,617 15.44 1.65 22 61.08 153,682 627 251,609 16.30 3.50 23 27.19 72,843 652 267,933 17.26 9.15 24 27.28 36,455 338 133,615 18.95 7.22 25 18.07 39,855 534 220,579 18.50 7.58 26 61.87 254,112 1,002 410,730 15.86 1.81 27 49.43 117,967 598 238,644 18.49 4.40 28 33.64 58,547 422 174,045 18.05 4.83 29 18.60 43,525 570 233,951 18.84 8.44 30 6.91 15,913 594 230,341 17.24 12.53 31 21.83 82,553 923 378,181 19.21 8.62 32 5.05 11,539 579 228,560 17.19 12.58 33 3.73 13,219 907 354,791 17.10 13.00 34 4.11 9,721 593 236,441 17.08 12.75 35 3.40 10,122 762 297,820 17.14 13.50 Sub Total 42.82 4,429,890 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Other Sectors .00 0 0 0 .00 TA Total 42.82 4,429,890 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 492,210 Sales Forecast 4,922,100




SCENARIO 8





Forecast Current Fcst Facility ---Sep 2017 --- ----Aug 2015 ---- T.A. % Sales Map Key Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Diff. Chg Area Draw Image 1 Farmington Muni 4,600,000 1277.78 -44,403 -12 3,600 8 157 2 Lakeville Iberia 4,400,000 628.57 -32,448 -25 7,000 3 94 3 TDF Liquors 750,000 1250.00 -10,418 -9 600 15 145 4 Lonsdale Muni 1,232,984 1027.49 1,300,000 1083.33 -50,262 -5 1,200 75 136 5 Hy-Vee Liquors 3,200,000 1000.00 -7,471 -2 3,200 10 119 6 Haskell's 2,700,000 428.57 -10,796 -3 6,300 15 54 7 Fareway Liquor 375,000 535.71 -717 -2 700 10 58 8 Northern Liquor 210,000 262.50 -616 -2 800 15 44 9 Kenyon Muni 410,000 820.00 -117 0 500 20 102 10 Best Buy Liquor 900,000 562.50 -2,661 -3 1,600 10 61 11 Rod's Liquors 1,300,000 1083.33 -4,349 -3 1,200 10 122 12 Northfield Muni --closed-- ----- 3,200,000 1066.67 -2,880,000 90 126 13 Firehouse Liquor 3,293,905 514.67 3,400,000 531.25 -95,485 -3 6,400 90 83 100 Lakeville CR 70 0 0.00 207,484 0 7,700 5 100 8000 Northfield Site 3,307,609 945.03 0 0.00 2,976,848 0 3,500 90 120 Totals 28,894,440 26,745,000 44,589 Averages 2,063,889 652.24 2,057,308 740.86 3,164 101 THREE-YEAR GROWTH PATTERN - SITE 8000

Forecast Forecast Forecast Facility ---Sep 2017--- ---Sep 2018--- ---Sep 2019--- Map Keys Name Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Volume /SqFt Draw Image 8000 Northfield Site 3,307,609 945.03 3,380,613 965.89 3,503,2411000.93 90 120 Inflation is 0%





Facility Map Key = 8000 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 2 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 44.98 189,586 1,035 421,452 15.17 .49 2 47.54 309,709 1,534 651,505 15.22 .34 3 47.81 106,901 763 223,605 15.34 .69 4 46.74 101,903 583 218,025 15.21 .21 5 46.92 124,121 682 264,521 15.32 .76 6 45.64 167,382 951 366,763 15.24 .53 7 45.59 373,202 2,105 818,571 15.43 1.05 8 21.62 72,201 862 333,973 15.05 2.89 9 29.08 144,558 1,302 497,091 14.99 1.83 10 37.07 114,681 863 309,351 15.01 1.10 11 41.03 149,239 889 363,699 15.20 .94 12 41.28 119,152 710 288,665 15.32 1.27 13 36.80 108,468 735 294,735 15.25 1.63 14 23.37 56,379 593 241,256 15.12 2.75 15 10.31 18,462 444 179,061 15.92 6.03 16 7.96 9,783 311 122,929 16.27 7.44 17 12.34 24,524 517 198,709 17.28 8.97 18 5.22 9,840 495 188,382 17.32 12.29 19 23.80 40,267 407 169,218 17.30 7.53 20 30.62 64,562 520 210,870 16.89 5.15 21 45.93 150,010 804 326,617 15.44 1.59 22 44.16 111,104 627 251,609 16.30 3.46 23 10.55 28,256 652 267,933 17.26 9.11 24 11.63 15,537 338 133,615 18.95 7.20 25 6.78 14,961 534 220,579 18.50 7.59 26 46.45 190,766 1,002 410,730 15.86 1.81 27 30.15 71,949 598 238,644 18.49 4.44 28 16.74 29,131 422 174,045 18.05 4.89 29 6.60 15,431 570 233,951 18.84 8.50 31 7.94 30,036 923 378,181 19.21 8.68 Sub Total 32.92 2,962,099 22,771 8,998,284 16.08 Other Sectors 1.09 14,749 3,435 1,347,954 17.14 TA Total 28.77 2,976,848 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 330,761 Sales Forecast 3,307,609




SCENARIO 9











Facility Map Key = 9000 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 2 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 59.94 252,608 1,035 421,452 15.17 .51 2 62.01 404,021 1,534 651,505 15.22 .34 3 62.50 139,747 763 223,605 15.34 .66 4 61.37 133,806 583 218,025 15.21 .20 5 61.82 163,528 682 264,521 15.32 .73 6 60.59 222,228 951 366,763 15.24 .52 7 60.84 497,990 2,105 818,571 15.43 1.04 8 37.90 126,568 862 333,973 15.05 2.91 9 45.72 227,267 1,302 497,091 14.99 1.86 10 53.29 164,848 863 309,351 15.01 1.13 11 56.78 206,514 889 363,699 15.20 .97 12 57.21 165,146 710 288,665 15.32 1.30 13 53.39 157,359 735 294,735 15.25 1.66 14 39.92 96,306 593 241,256 15.12 2.78 15 23.76 42,546 444 179,061 15.92 6.06 16 20.34 24,998 311 122,929 16.27 7.47 17 30.55 60,700 517 198,709 17.28 9.00 18 17.64 33,222 495 188,382 17.32 12.32 19 45.98 77,814 407 169,218 17.30 7.54 20 50.69 106,897 520 210,870 16.89 5.17 21 61.40 200,533 804 326,617 15.44 1.60 22 61.43 154,555 627 251,609 16.30 3.43 23 27.67 74,143 652 267,933 17.26 9.08 24 27.63 36,922 338 133,615 18.95 7.17 25 18.16 40,060 534 220,579 18.50 7.56 26 62.00 254,637 1,002 410,730 15.86 1.78 27 49.32 117,709 598 238,644 18.49 4.42 28 33.16 57,717 422 174,045 18.05 4.90 29 18.22 42,634 570 233,951 18.84 8.51 30 6.74 15,536 594 230,341 17.24 12.60 31 21.52 81,396 923 378,181 19.21 8.67 32 4.96 11,329 579 228,560 17.19 12.62 33 3.65 12,950 907 354,791 17.10 13.05 34 4.03 9,517 593 236,441 17.08 12.81 35 3.33 9,909 762 297,820 17.14 13.56 Sub Total 42.76 4,423,660 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Other Sectors .00 0 0 0 .00 TA Total 42.76 4,423,661 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 491,518 Sales Forecast 4,915,179




SCENARIO 10


AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 3 AND ST. OLAF AVENUE









Facility Map Key = 10000 Sep 2017 Draw = 90 Market Share Cutoff = 1 Sector Sector Expected Map Key Share Volume Population Potential Float Miles 1 59.08 248,990 1,035 421,452 15.17 .63 2 61.31 399,432 1,534 651,505 15.22 .44 3 62.48 139,715 763 223,605 15.34 .55 4 61.21 133,463 583 218,025 15.21 .16 5 61.80 163,483 682 264,521 15.32 .62 6 60.34 221,293 951 366,763 15.24 .49 7 60.59 495,958 2,105 818,571 15.43 .97 8 35.94 120,017 862 333,973 15.05 2.97 9 44.20 219,695 1,302 497,091 14.99 1.94 10 52.12 161,247 863 309,351 15.01 1.22 11 55.67 202,465 889 363,699 15.20 1.09 12 55.99 161,615 710 288,665 15.32 1.41 13 51.88 152,912 735 294,735 15.25 1.77 14 37.82 91,235 593 241,256 15.12 2.88 15 20.62 36,931 444 179,061 15.92 6.13 16 16.75 20,591 311 122,929 16.27 7.57 17 25.05 49,786 517 198,709 17.28 9.11 18 12.82 24,158 495 188,382 17.32 12.43 19 40.85 69,124 407 169,218 17.30 7.64 20 47.11 99,335 520 210,870 16.89 5.27 21 60.21 196,641 804 326,617 15.44 1.70 22 60.32 151,770 627 251,609 16.30 3.37 23 23.67 63,421 652 267,933 17.26 9.02 24 24.87 33,227 338 133,615 18.95 7.07 25 16.00 35,289 534 220,579 18.50 7.45 26 61.76 253,655 1,002 410,730 15.86 1.66 27 47.79 114,045 598 238,644 18.49 4.32 28 30.58 53,221 422 174,045 18.05 4.91 29 15.09 35,305 570 233,951 18.84 8.51 30 4.90 11,292 594 230,341 17.24 12.58 31 18.29 69,175 923 378,181 19.21 8.61 32 3.64 8,326 579 228,560 17.19 12.56 33 2.63 9,329 907 354,791 17.10 13.00 34 2.92 6,894 593 236,441 17.08 12.76 35 2.36 7,024 762 297,820 17.14 13.51 Sub Total 41.17 4,260,058 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Other Sectors .00 0 0 0 .00 TA Total 41.17 4,260,058 26,206 10,346,237 16.22 Outside TA 473,340 Sales Forecast 4,733,397




Definitions Trade Area The area containing the majority of the population that could contribute to

the sales of a store or stores located at a proposed site or sites also referred to as the study area.

Pulling Power The attraction a store exerts upon the population. Draw The portion of a store’s total business that is derived from the trade area. Image Representation of stores’ acceptance levels in the trade area. P.C.E. Per capita annual expenditure for liquor. Float That portion of the potential within the trade area that is not captured by

the identified stores. Barriers Physical or psychological obstacles that make it more difficult to travel

from one area to another. ADT Average Daily Traffic.




Qualifier In the use of this market analysis, client acknowledges that while it believes the services to be performed hereunder by Dakota Worldwide Corporation will be a valuable tool in management decision-making, it also understands that an important part of said services involves subjective judgment, which is dependent upon the correctness of the information made available to Dakota Worldwide Corporation. Therefore, client further acknowledges its understanding that Dakota Worldwide Corporation does not guarantee any result from the use of the analysis or other services performed hereunder, nor shall Dakota Worldwide Corporation be responsible for any loss incurred as a result of the use of said analysis or other services. Furthermore, these projections are based on the conditions identified in the survey. Any change within the trade area, such as the opening or closing of a competitive store or changes in economic conditions, could cause significant variation between these projections and actual sales. The possibility of this occurring increases with time.




Source Data “Number of Inhabitants,” Minnesota, 2000 Census of Population, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. “Area Statistics,” Minnesota, 2002 Census of Retail Trade, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. “PopStats” Synergos Technologies, Inc.

Documents

16-017 - NML001 Revision1$/SSF $ 4,579,180 $654.17 $4,661,865 $665.98 $4,816,729 $688.10 Scenario 2B – Site 2000 Weekly Sales $/SSF ... Facility Profile August 2015 Number of Facilities