ISSUES IN

AFRICA’S POPULATION

LECTURE ONE

What do you think population is about?

INTRODUCTION

• What is POPULATION about?

– not just about the number of people inhabiting in a specified area (size).

1840 1 billion

1930 2 billion

1960 3 billion

1987 5 billion

1993 5.5 billion

12th Oct 1999 6 billion UN Pop. Fund

24th Feb 2006 6.5 billion US Census Bureau

• The US Census Bureau estimates the 7 billion number was surpassed on 12 March 2012.

• As of 25 March 2015, the world population is estimated by the United States Census Bureau to be 7.232 billion.

Also about:

composition of the populationpattern of change rate of change

Introduction contd. • Population as an important

phenomenon in sub-Saharan Africa.

- In the past it showed the strength of a king or chief.- for fighting wars and inter ethnic battles

- to increase the base of chiefs for the collection of tribute.

Introduction contd.

- Supplied farm labour and increased productivity

a large family was prestigious and childlessness is stigmatized

- in some polygynous families, more children gave wives access to greater share of the property (Igbo of Nigeria).

Introduction contd. • In contemporary times large population sizes

have been considered a liability so far as development is concerned.

• Compared to other populations of the world, Africa’s population is distinct in many respects.

• The course examines long standing population concerns as well as contemporary population issues.

What is this course about?

A scientific study of human populations in Africa, their sizes, compositions, distributions, densities, growth, fertility, mortality, migration, and other causes of change, and the consequences of changes in these factors on the lives of the people.

Objectives of the Course

To expose students to the following:

1)The features that distinguish sub-Saharan populations from that of the major regions of the world

2)The patterns and trends of Africa’s population.

Objectives of the Course

• The linkages between population processes and the following;

– Health – Migration and

urbanization– Environment and Politics– The Economy of Africa

Why should we study issues in Africa’s

population

Rationale for the course

• We are in Africa and it is important for us to understand the composition of the continent’s population and the demographic changes taking place within the continent.

• A longstanding concern for the region’s population has been about the unprecedented rapid population growth rate and its implications for development.

Rationale for the course

• This kind of information is useful for development planning (making projections with respect to the needs of the different groups of people within the population).

• Students will be equipped with knowledge, develop sensitivity to population issues and enable them to react appropriately to population concerns.

Rationale for the course

• Cause behavioral change as well as the ability to apply lessons in various areas of work.

• All the Millennium Development Goals are of immense population concern, making population issues critical to Africa’s development.

Millennium Development Goals

• Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger• Achieve Universal Primary Education• Promote Gender Equality• Reduce Child Mortality• Improve Maternal Health • Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Other diseases• Ensure Environmental Sustainability• Develop a global partnership for development

DEMOGRAPHIC

CONCEPTS

Demographic concepts• Infants: Age ‘’0’’ refers to children below one year

or who have not celebrated their 1st birthday.

• Under-fives: all children who have not celebrated their fifth birthday; 1-4. Sometimes they are referred to as children.

• Adolescence: refers to the period between the beginning of puberty and adulthood, a transition between childhood and adulthood, and those at this stage are adolescents.

• Childbearing or Reproductive Years: The years 15 to 45/49 years are childbearing or reproductive years for women.

• Fecundity:The physiological capacity of individuals or

couples to reproduce or have children (Shryock, et al. 1976: 273).

• Fertility: The actual birth performance.

• The Crude Birth Rate (CBR), is the annual number of births per 1,000 total population.

It is often referred to as “crude rate” since it does not take a population’s age structure into account.

It is represented mathematically as follows:

Number of births x K ,

Total population where K= 1000

• The Crude Death Rate (CBR), is the annual number of deaths per 1,000 total population.

It is often referred to as “crude rate” since it does not take a population’s age structure into account.

It is represented mathematically as follows:

Number of deaths x K ,

Total population where K= 1000

• The replacement-level fertility is the level of fertility at which a couple has only sufficient number of children to replace themselves.

• If there were no mortality in the female population until the end of the childbearing years then the replacement level of TFR would be very close to 2.0

• Replacement-level fertility is roughly 2.1 births per couple for most industrialized countries (2.075 in the UK, for example)

R-LF

• In developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3 higher mortality rates.

• Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement is 2.33 children per woman. At this rate, global population growth would tend towards zero.

• The frequency of disease, illness, injuries, and disabilities in a population is referred to as Morbidity.

• Mortality is about deaths that occur in a population.

• For economic analysis of population, all persons under 15 years are referred to as children and young dependants, while age bracket 15 to 64 years is called the economically productive and those aged 65 years and over are old dependants.

• When the proportion of children and young adults in the population is high the population is referred to as a young population and has potential for growth.

• Old population has a relatively high proportion of middle-age and elderly people.

The populations of developing countries are young while those of developed countries are old.

• The sex ratio is the most commonly used measure in analysis of sex composition of a population. It is the ratio of males to females in a given population and it is usually the number of males for every 100 females and expressed as:

Pm x K, Pf

where Pm represents the number of males, Pf is the number of females and K= 100.

• Sex is the classification of the human population on the basis of genitals (biological characteristics only) into males and females or boys and girls or men and women.

• Gender is the culturally defined roles, rights,

responsibilities, obligations and associated privileges for men and women. Gender is dynamic as culture itself is and varies from one society to another.

• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be born to a woman by the time she comes to the end of her reproductive years if she conforms to the age-specific fertility rates (the fertility rate of specific age groups in the population) in a given year.

• Between 5 and 7 in most sub-Saharan countries

• The prevalence rate is the estimated percentage of people living with a particular disease in a population at a given point in time. The rate includes all the cases that have not resulted in death or cure.

• It is possible to compute the prevalence rate for a particular age group as well as the prevalence rate of the total population.

Projected population

• Projections based upon reasonable assumptions on the future course of fertility, mortality, and migration.

• 2025, 2050

• Projections are usually based upon official country projections

• The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), is the number of deaths of infants (children under age 1) per 1,000 live births in a given year. It is expressed mathematically as:

Number if infant deaths x K

Total live births

Where K = 1000.

• The number of women who die as a result of complications of pregnancy or childbearing in a given year per 100,000 live births in that year is referred to as the Maternal Mortality Rate or Ratio (MMR). It is computed as follows:

Number of maternal deaths x K

Total live births

where K= 100,000

• Life expectancy at birth

The average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live under current mortality levels.

• Population pyramid, also called an age picture diagram, is a graphical illustration that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population (typically that of a country or region of the world), which forms the shape of a pyramid when the population is growing.

Uses

• Many countries with the largest youth bulge are African nations severely afflicted by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, which has decreased overall lifespan dramatically.

Population pyramid of Egypt in 2005.

Many of those 30 and younger are educated citizens who are experiencing difficulty finding work.

Recap of LECTURE

• General Introduction

• Rationale and objectives of the course

• Basic Demographic Concepts

Next lecture

• Population Patterns and dynamics of Sub Saharan African Populations

• General Features of Sub Saharan Populations