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Monitoring the CAP
The role of indicators
Monitoring tools to feed and preserve the planet
10 September 2015
Fertilizers Europe Expo Milano event
Tassos Haniotis Director
Economic analysis, perspectives and evaluations; communication
DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission
2
Annual real commodity price indexes
Source: World Bank
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
(2010 = 100)
Agriculture Fertilizers Energy Metals & minerals
3
Monthly nominal commodity price indexes
Source: World Bank
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(2010 = 100)
Agriculture Fertilizers Energy Metals and minerals
FAO real food price indices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2006
M01
2006
M04
2006
M07
2006
M10
2007
M01
2007
M04
2007
M07
2007
M10
2008
M01
2008
M04
2008
M07
2008
M10
2009
M01
2009
M04
2009
M07
2009
M10
2010
M01
2010
M04
2010
M07
2010
M10
2011
M01
2011
M04
2011
M07
2011
M10
2012
M01
2012
M04
2012
M07
2012
M10
2013
M01
2013
M04
2013
M07
2013
M10
2014
M01
2014
M04
2014
M07
2014
M10
2015
M01
2015
M04
2015
M07
(2002-04=100)
Dairy Cereals Food
4
5
CAP reform path and CAP budget, 1980-2020
Source: DG AGRI.
0,0%
0,1%
0,2%
0,3%
0,4%
0,5%
0,6%
0,7%
0,8%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
billion EUR (current prices)
Export subsidies Other market measures Market expenditureCoupled support Decoupled support Direct payments green payments Other rural development agro-environmental measuresCAP as share of EU GDP
EU-28
actual expenditure 1980-2014
EU-10 EU-12 EU-15 EU-25 EU-27
outlook 2015-2020
6
The new "greening" architecture of the CAP
Agricultural area (eligible for direct payments)
Cross compliance
Green direct payments
Rural development
Cu
mu
lati
ve
envi
ron
men
tal
ben
efit
s
Regulatory (Statutory
Management Requirements and Good Agricultural
Environmental Conditions)
Mandatory with financial
support (decoupled “green”
payment per hectare)
Voluntary with compensation
for cost incurred and income forgone
Implementation mechanism
7
Purpose of Monitoring & Evaluation
measure the performance of the CAP
assess contribution of CAP to broader EU objectives
necessary requirement for every policy using EU budget
opportunity for CAP to ensure its credibility
8
Key concepts of Monitoring & Evaluation
Monitoring
continuous process generating data on implementation (not impacts)
Evaluation
judges interventions according to results, impacts, needs
Indicators
aggregate data to allow quantification (& simplification) of phenomena
Intervention logic
systematic description of link between actions and objectives
9
CAP intervention logic
CAP general objectives
Viable food production
Sustainable management of natural resources and climate action
Balanced territorial development
CSF* thematic
objectives
Pillar I specific objectives Pillar II priorities
Maintain market stability
Meet consumer expectations
Maintain diverse agriculture across
the EU
CAP specific objectives
Enhance farm income
Improve agricultural competitiveness
Provide environmental public goods
Pursue climate change mitigation and
adaptation
Foster innovation Promote
socioeconomic development of rural
areas
*CSF: Common Strategic Framework including the EFRD, ESF, CF, EAFRD and EMFF
10
CAP M&E indicators
CAP general
objectives
CAP specific objectives
(Pillar I specific objectives, Pillar II
priorities)
Pillar I instruments & Pillar II measures Output indicators
Result indicators
Impact indicators
Situation & trends
Context indicators
A common set of impact indicators
• General objective: Viable food production • 1 Agricultural entrepreneurial income • 2 Agricultural factor income • 3 Agricultural productivity • 4 EU commodity price variability • 5 Consumer price evolution of food products • 6 Agricultural trade balance
• General objective :Sustainable management of natural resources & climate action • 7 Emissions from agriculture • 8 Farmland birds index • 9 HNV Farming • 10 Water abstraction in agriculture • 11Water quality • 12 Soil quality • 13 Soil erosion
• General objective : Balanced territorial development • 14 Rural employment rate • 15 Degree of rural poverty • 16 Rural GDP per capita
CAP Monitoring and Evaluation
Indicators and data available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-indicators/index_en.htm
Thank you for your attention!
12