CDS147 CDSDG 16 EOriginal: English

NATO Parliamentary Assembly

SUB-COMMITTEE ONDEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE

(CDSDG)

MISSION REPORT

SARAJEVO, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

AND BELGRADE, SERBIA

7-10 MARCH 2016

www.nato-pa.int 19 July 2016

This Mission Report is presented for information only and does not represent the official view of the Assembly. This report was prepared by Andrius Avizius, Director of the Committee on the Civil Dimension of Security (CDS).

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I. INTRODUCTION

1. Over 20 years after the conclusion of the Dayton Peace Accords which put an end to the deadly conflict in the former Yugoslavia, the Western Balkans continue to grapple with deeply rooted regional tensions. At the same time, countries of the region are confronted with the consequences of the conflict in Iraq and Syria, which has drawn hundreds of foreign fighters out of the region while causing an increasing flow of refugees transiting through the Western Balkans.

2. These were the main findings a delegation of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly brought back from its visit to Sarajevo and Belgrade on 7-10 March 2016.

3. Political cleavages between the three main ethnic groups in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) remain prominent and may possibly deepen, hampering the country’s progress towards the EU and NATO membership. Bosnian political leaders both in Sarajevo and Banja Luka need to abandon narrow nationalistic rhetoric and focus on the implementation of much needed reforms, the delegation stressed throughout its visit.

4. Several local as well as international interlocutors argued that NATO could help unlock the current stalemate by following the EU’s example and revisiting the preconditions for furthering Bosnia and Herzegovina’s integration process. Namely, they urged Alliance leaders to lift or reinterpret the condition set in 2010 that Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) will only be activated once the issue of registering the immovable defence property is resolved. Allowing Sarajevo to activate MAP would have a positive spillover effect on other reform initiatives in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Assembly delegation heard.

5. NATO Parliamentarians also visited Belgrade on 9-10 March and met with the country’s senior leaders, including the Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic. The delegation was warned that dangerous ultra-nationalist tendencies in Serbia and elsewhere in the region are on the rise, but the current government is committed to its strategic goal of membership in the EU and hoping to consolidate support for its reform agenda in the upcoming early parliamentary elections scheduled for April. While not seeking membership in NATO, Serbia is developing a comprehensive cooperation with the Alliance, which it views as a factor of stability in the Western Balkans, particularly in Kosovo. Serbian leaders called on the representatives of the Euro-Atlantic community to exert pressure on Pristina in order to ensure the implementation of the 2013 Brussels agreement on normalisation, particularly regarding the establishment of the community of Serb municipalities.

6. Assembly members discussed Bosnia and Herzegovina’s efforts to prevent and deal with the radicalisation of part of its youth, hundreds of which have gone to fight alongside Daesh in Syria and Iraq. In Serbia, the delegation also visited a refugee centre in Adaševci near the border with Croatia. The centre was originally intended as a temporary shelter for refugees transiting through Serbia. However, some 340 refugees, including many children, mostly from Syria and Iraq, are now unable to move forward due to the recent closure of the borders by Serbia’s neighbours. The Serbian authorities, assisted by relevant international organisations and local NGOs, are doing their utmost to meet the needs of these people and to treat them with dignity. Last year, some 750,000 people from the Middle East crossed Serbia trying to reach wealthier EU countries.

7. The delegation of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly’s Sub-Committee on Democratic Governance consisted of some 21 member of parliament from 12 NATO member and 4 NATO partner countries. The delegation was led by the Sub-Committee Chairman and Assembly Vice President Lord Jopling (UK).

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BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

II. BIH AND EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION

8. Borjana Kristo, Speaker of the House of Representatives and Safet Softic, First Deputy Speaker of the House of Peoples of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH, stressed that BiH remains strongly committed to NATO and EU integration. BiH presidency is unanimous in supporting NATO integration, including the presidency member from the Serb community. Nikola Lovrinovic, Head of the BiH delegation to NATO PA, noted that Western Balkan countries are progressing towards NATO and EU membership and that BiH wanted to be a part of this process as well. He admitted that, since 2006, BiH found itself in a period of stagnation. However, following the 2014 elections, the reform process has received a new impetus. A marked progress has been achieved in reforming police and defence sectors. BiH armed forces proved to be a reliable partner of NATO in international missions – BiH officers participate in NATO or UN led missions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Mali and The Democratic Republic of Congo. Sifet Podzic, Chairman of the Joint Committee on Defence and Security of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH, noted that many Central and Eastern European countries joined NATO first before joining the EU, and that a similar scenario was the most realistic one for BiH as well.

9. BiH officials noted that progress has been made on the crucial issue of defence property registration – the issue identified by Allied leaders as a prerequisite for activating the MAP for BiH. However, by early 2016, only 23 out of 63 sites have been fully registered – all of them on the territory of the Bosniak-Croat Federation, and none on the territory of the Republic of Srpska (RS). The process of registration in the RS is currently on hold pending a court case regarding one of the sites - Han Pijesak. If the ruling is in favour of Sarajevo’s position, and provided it is implemented, this could end the deadlock. Defence Minister Marina Pendes noted that registration of about 20 of these sites is problematic from a purely technical/practical standpoint and that the definition of what constitutes a defence property needs to be clarified.

10. BiH officials argued that this seemingly technical issue has been politicised and used by Banja Luka to obstruct NATO integration process. They praised the German-British initiative to revisit preconditions for faster EU integration1; they argued that a more flexible approach by the EU has visibly encouraged the reform process in the country. BiH representatives appealed on NATO leaders to adopt a similar approach and choose other criteria to assess the country’s progress – such as the assessment of whether or not BiH armed forces have sufficient property to perform its functions properly. Asim Sarajlic, member of the BiH delegation to NATO PA, and other BiH interlocutors argued that activation of MAP would boost national confidence and support for Euro-Atlantic integration and possibly have positive spillover effects on reforms in other sectors.

11. Interlocutors in BiH admitted that popular support for NATO membership is not very high in the Republic of Srpska (RS) – just over 20%, as opposed to more than 90% in the Bosniak-Croat Federation. Symptomatically, no representative from the RS ruling party was present in the meetings with the NATO PA delegation. On behalf of the delegation, Lord Jopling expressed disappointment regarding this fact. The delegation met with independent experts and civil society activists from Banja Luka who explained the difficulties of conducting an awareness campaign about NATO in RS. They argued that putting an emphasis of the economic benefits of NATO integration is the most efficient way to win sympathies of RS population.

12. Representatives of the BiH Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that public support for NATO and EU integration is strong in this country. However, in the face of apparent enlargement fatigue

1 Namely, the requirement to change BiH constitutional provisions to accommodate the so called Sejdic-Finci ruling. This 2009 European Court of Human Rights ruling requires BiH to change its Constitution in order to allow ethnic minorities run for top governing posts that are currently reserved for the three ‘constituent peoples’, Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats.

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among the Euro-Atlantic community, the lack of membership perspective can force some Bosnians to consider other strategic alternatives, BiH diplomats warned.

13. The importance of regional cooperation has been stressed in several meetings. BiH interlocutors highlighted the efforts to improve Sarajevo-Belgrade relations, inter alia, by holding a joint session of BiH and Serbian governments. BiH also signed an important border demarcation agreement with Montenegro.

III. REFORM AGENDA AND INTER-ETHNIC RELATIONS

14. Sarajevo-based ambassadors of NATO member states agreed with the assessment of BiH politicians that the country’s reform agenda received a new momentum in the wake of 2014 elections. A much-needed mechanism to coordinate European integration efforts of various BiH institutions has been introduced. Some progress has been achieved in the economic sphere; cooperation with the International Monetary Fund has increased. However, numerous challenges remain to be tackled, particularly in the field of judiciary, which remains vulnerable to pressures from politicians. Some interlocutors were hoping that the EU’s so-called Structured Dialogue mechanism will assist BiH in consolidating an independent, efficient and professional judicial system. NATO diplomats regretted that RS leadership has suspended cooperation with BiH State Investigation and Protection Agency.

15. Sarajevo-based diplomats also stressed that the country’s elite has only limited commitment to reforms, including promoting small and medium enterprises, because many politicians are reluctant to destroy the existing clientelist system which is the basis of their power. The recently opened case against a powerful businessman-turned-politician might be a turning point, for better or worse, in BiH’s efforts to combat corruption, the delegation heard. NATO legislators were also informed by several interlocutors that despite the adoption of several anti-corruption laws, such as the law on tackling money laundering, the actual situation with corruption has not yet improved. One civil society expert noted that penalties for corrupt activities are too mild and do not deter politicians and officials from engaging in such activities. Minister of Security Dragan Mektic noted that corruption has been entrenched in the mindsets of many BiH people. Therefore, in order to genuinely tackle the corruption problem, one needs a long-term comprehensive strategy that would alter those mindsets.

16. Sifet Podzic, Chairman of the Joint Committee on Defence and Security of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH, noted that BiH has been praised in the past for its achievements reforming its defence and security sector. However, the progress in this area came to a standstill in recent years, Mr Podzic said. The BiH authorities need to do more to reignite the progress and to solve the most outstanding issues, including improving the procurement system, improving the material capabilities of the armed forces, disposing obsolete equipment and developing a new defence review. The activation of MAP would give a crucial impetus to implement these reforms, Mr Podzic argued. This position was also echoed by some NATO diplomats as well as by independent experts who briefed the visiting NATO PA delegation.

17. Defence Minister Pendes noted that the new defence review has been submitted to BiH presidency. However, the sensitive 6th chapter of the review – defining the structure of the armed forces – has yet to be finalised as there are diverging views on it among representatives of different constituent peoples. The defence establishment is expecting the presidency to provide unified political guidance on this issue.

18. Minister Pendes also noted that the size of BiH defence budget – about 1% of GDP – is too low to ensure adequate funding of defence modernisation programmes and procurement of necessary equipment, including for emergency response operations. Nevertheless, BiH is slowly acquiring new equipment – the Minister mentioned procurement plans for new helicopters and

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armed vehicles. The Minister admitted that the procurement process has not been very efficient and transparent in recent years and mentioned a plan to revisit and improve the procurement system this year. The deficiency of the current system is part of the reason why about 8% of the – already small – of the last year’s defence budget remained unspent.

19. The delegation visited Camp Butmir and was briefed by Brigadier General Giselle M. Wilz, NATO HQ Commander Sarajevo and Major General Johann Luif, Commanding Officer of EUFOR. They explained how international forces (70 NATO officers and some 600 EUFOR officers) help build capacity and train Bosnian armed forces as well as advise the Ministry of Defence. They noted that tangible progress has been achieved building efficient armed forces, possibly the most successful institution in the country. Collaboration with mid-level officers is good, but their decision-making process on a higher level is slow and beset with political obstacles. Gen. Wilz and Gen. Luif noted that, in practice, the interethnic relations within BiH armed forces so far have not been a problem – there were no refusal to implement orders on ethnic grounds. However, they stressed that BiH army need to acquire more modern equipment. EUFOR is also mandated to provide direct security assistance, but it has not been requested so far. The delegation was also told that the demining activities – a very important issue for a country where some 250 sq. km are confirmed minefields – are not conducted rapidly enough (only about 10 sq. km are cleared per year). Corruption is one of the problems that slows down the progress in this area.

20. The publication of the results of the 2013 census remains a sensitive and unresolved issue, mainly due to the lack of consensus on definitions of terms such as “resident”. However, BiH politicians were hopeful that solution will be found soon and the results will finally be published by the end of June.

21. Throughout the visit, NATO parliamentarians heard both from local and international interlocutors that Banja Luka is increasingly uncooperative and is challenging Sarajevo at every occasion. The leadership of RS is very corrupt, the delegation heard, and, as the entity faces growing economic problems, the RS authorities increasingly relies on nationalist rhetoric to shore up its power base.

IV. NEW CHALLENGES

22. BiH Minister of Security Dragan Mektic admitted that the problem of radicalism and extremism in his country is real. Extremist ideas are quite popular in certain communities, and some members of these communities turn to violence. According to the Minister, there were at the moment 134 BiH citizens fighting in Syria and Iraq. BiH reviewed its legislation and penalised fighting in the ranks of terrorist organisations such as Daesh. “Foreign fighters” face 5-year prison sentences. Twenty charges have been pressed so far. BiH authorities also target the facilitators of the terrorist recruitment process as well as those who spread extremist messages.

23. Minister Mektic also stressed that BiH authorities do not merely rely on repressive measures, but also develop prevention and de-radicalisation mechanisms. In cooperation with civil society and religious institutions, trained individuals carry out preventive work in communities vulnerable to radical ideas. BiH authorities also conduct programmes with schools and media, exposing the detrimental effects of radicalism. He stressed that only a small fraction of the Muslim community in BiH is supporting radical ideas.

24. BiH is also looking forward to expanding counter-terrorism cooperation with the EU, particularly with Europol. BiH joined the regional framework of non-EU Balkan states designed to improve coordination of efforts to curb weapons trafficking. Sarajevo is hoping – with the support of EU member states – to host a regional centre on information exchange and analysis with regard to weapon trafficking issue. Minister Mektic also noted that BiH needs a better access to European and international counter-terrorism databases and early warning mechanisms. He argued that it is

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in Western Europe’s interests as well, since some of the weapons used in recent terrorist attacks in France were likely smuggled through the Balkan route.

25. In terms of the migration/refugee crisis, Minister Mektic noted that BiH has so far been relatively unaffected by it. Nevertheless, there were cases when smugglers transported some migrants/refugees through the Bosnian territory. BiH has prepared contingency plans in case migrants/refugees change their route. The Minister also sent a message to EU policymakers that, despite its limited resources, BiH is prepared to contribute to the pan-European solution to this issue.

SERBIA

V. SERBIA, NATO AND EU

26. The NATO PA delegation commenced its visit in Serbia with a roundtable discussion with Belgrade-based ambassadors from NATO member states. Diplomats noted that while the majority of the Serbian population has a negative image of NATO, the practical cooperation in the framework of Partnership for Peace (PfP) and Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) is intensive and growing. They did not see Serbia as a regional power having a malign influence on its neighbours – in fact, Belgrade has a certain moderating effect on Banja Luka. Serbian military is proactive in increasing cooperation with the West.

27. Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said that Serbia wants to become a reliable partner of NATO and to be an anchor of stability in the Western Balkans. The visit of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Belgrade in 2015 was a milestone in Serbia-NATO relations. The visit was taken well by the Serbian public, especially when the Secretary General expressed his regret for the loss of lives of innocent people during the 1999 NATO-Serbia conflict. The importance of this statement was repeatedly emphasised by the Serbian interlocutors. It is expected that the first evaluation of IPAP will take place after the parliamentary elections. Serbian Parliament has been able to ratify agreements with NATO swiftly and with a large majority. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivica Dacic noted that Serbia views positively the aspirations of other Western Balkan nations to join NATO. Serbia does not seek membership, but it has achieved the highest level of cooperation with NATO for a non-aspirant country, Mr Dacic said. He highlighted Serbia’s contribution to international peace operations – some 327 Serbian officers are currently deployed in such operations.

28. Several NATO diplomats believed that Prime Minister Vucic and his government are sincere in their determination to join the EU and to prevent destabilisation of the region. Serbia has some military contacts with Moscow and refuses to join Western sanctions against Russia, but the scope of Serbia’s cooperation with the West is incomparably greater, the delegation heard. The EU outranks Russia by far as Serbia’s main trading partner.

29. Serbian politicians stressed that Serbia’s natural place is in the EU as it shares the same values as Western European countries. The parliament is determined to adopt and ratify all necessary laws and agreements to achieve EU membership standards. Prime Minister Vucic stressed that Serbia is determined to seek membership in the EU regardless of whether or not it is acceptable to Putin’s Russia.

30. However, there are radical forces in the Serbian society that are unhappy with Serbia’s intensifying links with the EU and NATO, the delegation heard. Both Serbian and international interlocutors predicted that these forces are likely to be better represented in the new parliament, but the vast majority of deputies will continue to support the EU membership and cooperation with NATO. The people of Serbia are overwhelmingly in favour of the EU integration, but if the country makes little progress towards European living standards, this support could begin to erode, the

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delegation was warned. Prime Minister Vucic stressed that radical ideas are becoming more widespread in Serbia and beyond. Regional stability is threatened by these ultra-nationalistic groups, he warned and one spark could ignite an inter-ethnic conflict. He assured NATO parliamentarians that his government will not make any compromises with these groups and will continue unwaveringly implementing commitments it made to the people of Serbia. He also stressed his support for the territorial integrity of BiH.

31. Russia is also using its influence to prevent Serbia’s rapprochement with the Euro-Atlantic institutions. It exploits the fact that many Serbs feel cultural affinity towards Russia and see it as a protector of the Orthodox civilisation. Some support Putin’s Russia also because they see parallels between Kosovo and Crimea. NATO diplomats warned that Russia is increasing its presence in the Serbian media space, including by expanding the offices of Sputnik and RT media outlets in Serbia. Russia has also opened a "humanitarian centre" in the Serbian city of Niš designed to contribute to more efficient emergency response in the Balkans. It is suspected that this centre could be used as a tool to project Russia’s soft power in the region. Through its assets in Serbia, Russia is expanding its influence in the entire Western Balkans, the delegates heard.

32. NATO diplomats stressed that NATO should show the Serbian people that it is not just a military alliance, but can also assist Serbia in civilian areas, such as emergency response operations. The NATO PA delegation suggested to the Serbian Interior Minister to explore the possibility to cooperate with NATO’s Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre (EADRCC). During its meetings in Belgrade, NATO PA members gathered that more needs to be done to explain what NATO is and what it does – both by NATO itself and by the Serbian government. For instance, the public protests against the recent NATO-Serbia agreement on a rather technical issue of cooperation with NATO’s Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) shows the lack of such understanding. The negative perception of NATO is likely to remain strong, not least because the government conducts comprehensive and consistent policies designed to entrench the memory of the 1999 war through schools and public campaigns, portraying Serbia as the victim of NATO aggression. Serbian interlocutors repeatedly stressed that Serbian people should not be forced to choose between NATO and Russia.

VI. THE QUESTION OF KOSOVO

33. Serbian politicians and officials put a strong emphasis on the April 2013 normalisation agreement. They maintain that Belgrade has made substantial concession in this agreement, but feel that their counterparts in Pristina are not fully implementing their end of the deal. In particular, Belgrade is highly concerned that the establishment of the association of Kosovo Serb municipalities has yet to be accomplished. Belgrade finds this unacceptable and asks the Euro-Atlantic community to exert its influence on Pristina regarding this issue. Serbian interlocutors also called on the international community to insist on the investigation of crimes committed by Kosovo militants. International interlocutors believed that greater participation of officials from both Belgrade and Pristina in regional cooperation frameworks is a very promising way to genuine normalisation.

34. Prime Minister Vucic thanked NATO countries for supporting KFOR, which plays a critical role protecting the Serbian community and religious sites in Kosovo. He also stressed that his government will continue working hard with the authorities in Pristina in order to address the unresolved issues. Minister Dacic suggested that a major international gathering would be instrumental to ultimately resolve the status of the Kosovo.

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VII. REFORM AGENDA

35. Speaker of the Serbian Parliament Igor Becic and the Head of the Serbian delegation to NATO PA Dragan Sormaz stressed that the ruling party is determined to continue on the path of difficult but necessary reforms. They were confident that, in the upcoming elections, the people of Serbia will give a strong mandate to the government of Mr Vucic to press on with European reforms and conclude the EU membership negotiations by 2020.

36. Prime Minister Vucic noted that the EU’s assistance was crucial in implementing reforms in Serbia. However, these reforms needed to be conducted in any case because they are necessary for Serbia’s institutions and economy, he said. He stressed that the government has adopted painful fiscal consolidation measures, and still managed to achieve some economic growth – almost 2% in the past year. The Prime Minister also noted that the people of Serbia understand that these unpopular measures are necessary.

37. International interlocutors told the delegation that Serbia is not yet a genuine democratic market economy. Media is diverse and pluralistic, but it is not fully independent. Despite certain progress, a lot remains to be done to achieve truly independent judiciary. The Report of the Citizens' Ombudsman for 2015 has identified a series of problems, ranging from endangerment of social and economic rights of vulnerable groups to corruption in the judiciary system. The parliament has adopted important legislation designed to bolster the rule of law, but the record of its actual implementation is mixed. Also, the legislation allows legal processes to drag on for years, which, in turn, gives more opportunities for the authorities to manipulate them. Corruption remains pervasive in Serbia, especially in sectors such as health care. The weakness of the rule of law deters investors and has a negative effect on the economy. Some interlocutors expressed hopes that the shortcomings of the judicial system will be addressed in the process of EU membership negotiations. Minister of Interior Nebojsa Stefanovic stressed that the current Serbian government has a strong political will to root out corruption. Corrupt officials associated with the ruling party are not spared, the Minister said, and noted that some deputy Ministers, mayors and even MPs from the ruling party have been arrested. He also highlighted the important achievements of Serbia in fighting organised crime networks.

38. The delegation also heard that the political system in Serbia has flaws as part of the decision-making process takes place outside the official democratic institutions. Some foreign interlocutors warned that it is in Moscow’s interest to encourage authoritarian tendencies in Belgrade as means of distancing Serbia from the EU and NATO.

VIII. NEW CHALLENGES

39. Minister of Interior Stefanovic informed the delegation that, in 2015, some 750,000 people crossed Serbia fleeing from the conflict in the Middle East and aiming to seek asylum in the EU. In the past few days the number of refugees/migrants arriving in Serbia fell sharply due to the border closure by several Central European states. Foreign Minister Dacic was not convinced that the closure of borders was the right approach to the refugee/migration issue. However, he stressed that Belgrade has no choice but to do likewise, following the decisions of Vienna, Ljubljana and Skopje.

40. Minister Stefanovic stressed that the refugee/migration crisis has required considerable human, material and financial resources from Serbia. Nevertheless, Serbia is determined to take care of the people stranded in the country with the dignity they deserve. Simultaneously, Serbian authorities are targeting the networks of smugglers and human trafficker – some 1,000 of these criminals were arrested in 2015. However, these people belong to larger transnational networks, and to tackle this problem efficiently a higher degree of international cooperation is needed, the

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Minister said. He urged the EU policymakers to forge a coherent refugee and border strategy and said that Serbia would align its policies with such a strategy.

41. During the meetings in the Serbian Parliament, the delegation heard that the parliamentary opposition also generally approves the government’s approach to dealing with the refugee/migrant crisis.

42. Together with Aleksandar Vulin, Minister of Labour, Employment, Veteran and Social Affairs, the delegation also visited a refugee centre in Adaševci near the border with Croatia. The centre was originally intended as a temporary shelter for refugees transiting through Serbia. However, some 340 refugees, including many children, mostly from Syria and Iraq, are now unable to move forward due to the recent closure of the borders by Serbia’s neighbours. The Serbian authorities, assisted by relevant international organisations and local NGOs, are doing their utmost to meet the needs of these people and to treat them with dignity.

43. The delegation was informed that an undefined number of Serbs have travelled to Eastern Ukraine to fight alongside the separatists. The Serbian government has adopted a law that criminalises such ‘foreign fighter’ activities of its citizens. Serbian interlocutors drew the attention of the NATO PA members to the fact that some 300 people from Kosovo joined the ranks of radical militants in Syria and Iraq.

44. The NATO PA delegation also heard that Serbia continues to face serious civil emergency challenges, particularly when it comes to floods. Minister Stefanovic stressed the importance of the fact that Serbia has recently become a part of the EU’s civil protection mechanism. Following the suggestion of the NATO parliamentarians, he also instructed his staff to investigate the possibility of closer cooperation with NATO’s EADRCC.

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