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14 June 2012The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues Widespread rainfall was recorded across most of south west Western Australia this
week, providing timely moisture for recently sown winter crops and pastures. Further rainfall is forecast across southern Australia in the coming week which should
assist the growth of winter crops. Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased this week by 146 gigalitres
(GL) to approximately 91 per cent of total capacity. Changes to the wholesale prices of fruit and vegetables were mixed in the week ending
9 June 2012, with significant increases for cauliflower and avocado (hass) but decreases for broccoli, beans (round), rockmelon and watermelon.
ABARES’ June edition of the Australian Crop Report forecasts the total area sown to winter crops to fall by 2 per cent in 2012–13. The forecast reflects the combined effect of expected lower farmgate prices of cereals and the dry start to the season. The area sown to canola is forecast to rise by 23 per cent, reflecting growers' response to relatively favourable canola prices compared with wheat and barley.
Total winter crop production in 2012–13 is forecast to be around 38.5 million tonnes, 15 per cent lower than last year’s record production. Harvesting of the 2011-12 summer crops is nearing completion and production is estimated to have increased by 19 per cent from last season to around 5.5 million tonnes.
The world indicator price of wheat (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$279 a tonne in the week ending 12 June 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.
Saleyard prices of lamb declined in most states in the week ending 8 June 2012. The largest decline was in South Australia where the indicator price (18-22 kg fat score 2-4) fell 7 per cent to 399 cents a kilogram.
The Eastern Market Indicator price for wool fell 17 cents in the week ending 7 June 2012 to 1079 cents a kilogram clean, despite the number of bales offered being 30 per cent lower than the previous week.
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1. Climate
1.1. Notable events For the week ending 14 June 2012, widespread rainfalls of 50 to 100 millimetres (mm) were recorded
across most of south west Western Australia and some parts of the New South Wales and Queensland coast. Little to no rainfall was recorded over most of central and northern Australia. The highest measured rainfall total for the week was 236 mm at Ballina, just south of Byron Bay in New South Wales.
The widespread heavy rain over south west Western Australia this week has brought timely moisture for the growth of winter crops and pastures. Some areas in the state’s south west recorded wind gusts of up to 130 kilometres that caused minor damage to crops and farm infrastructure.
Heavy rainfall across the New South Wales and southern Queensland coast has caused some delays to the beginning of the 2012 sugarcane harvest. Little to no rain is forecast for Queensland in the coming week, which should provide ideal conditions for the beginning of the winter harvest.
Rainfall of up to 50 mm is forecast across southern Australia in the coming week, with particularly heavy falls forecast for south-west Western Australia, parts of South Australia and Victoria. The forecast rainfall should further assist the growth of winter crops in these regions.
The Victorian Department of Primary Industries is warning farmers of increased wild dog populations in north western Victoria following improved seasonal conditions over summer and autumn. High rainfall and increased prey populations has led to a boom in dog populations and reported attacks on livestock.
1.2. Rainfall this weekFor the week ending 13 June 2012, widespread heavy rainfall was recorded across most of south west Western Australia and parts of the New South Wales and Queensland coast. Little to no rainfall was recorded across central and northern Australia. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.
Rainfall for the week ending 13 June 2012
1.3. Temperature anomalies this weekSpatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum from the long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 June 2012
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 June 2012
1.4. Rainfall outlookThe rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall for the period 14 to 21 June 2012
2. Water
2.1. Water availability Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 146 gigalitres (GL) to
approximately 91 per cent of total capacity. This is 9 percentage points higher than the same time in 2011.
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 14 June 2012 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
Changes to the wholesale prices of fruit were mixed in the week ending 9 June 2012, with an increase for pineapple (smoothleaf) but decreases for rockmelon and watermelon (seedless).
The wholesale prices of cauliflower, tomato (field gourmet) and iceberg lettuce were higher for the week ending 9 June 2012 but lower for broccoli and beans (round).
The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged 82.4 US cents a pound in the week ending 13 June 2012, 2.7 per cent higher than in the previous week.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged around US20 cents a pound in the week ending 13 June 2012, 4.1 per cent lower than in the previous week.
The Eastern Market Indicator price for wool fell 17 cents in the week ending 7 June 2012 to 1079 cents a kilogram clean, despite the number of bales offered being 30 per cent lower than the previous week. It was the smallest offering this season.
ABARES released the June edition of the Australian Crop Report on 13 June and has forecast the total area sown to winter crops in Australia to fall by 2 per cent in 2012–13 to around 22.2 million hectares. The forecast fall in area planted to winter crops reflects the combined effect of expected lower farmgate prices of cereals and the dry start to the season.
For the major winter crops: the area sown to wheat is forecast to fall by 5 per cent to around 13.4 million hectares; the area sown to barley is forecast to fall by 4 per cent to around 3.9 million hectares; and the area sown to canola is forecast to rise by 23 per cent to around 2.1 million hectares, reflecting growers' response to relatively favourable canola prices compared with alternatives, especially wheat and barley.
Total winter crop production in 2012–13 is forecast to be 38.5 million tonnes, around 15 per cent lower than last year’s record production. Harvesting of the 2011-12 summer crops is nearing completion and production is estimated to have increased by 19 per cent to around 5.5 million tonnes.
The world indicator price of wheat (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$279 a tonne in the week ending 12 June 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$266 a tonne for the week ending 13 June 2012, compared with US$253 a tonne in the previous week. The price rise reflects a weakening in the outlook for crops in major growing areas of the United States because of warm and dry seasonal conditions.
The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$595 a tonne in the week ending 12 June 2012, compared with US$593 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $515 a tonne in the week ending 11 June 2012, compared with $518 a tonne in the previous week.
Saleyard prices of lamb declined in most states in the week ending 8 June 2012. The largest decline was in South Australia where the indicator price (18-22 kg fat score 2-4) fell 7 per cent to 399 cents a kilogram. In other states, the indicator price for lamb declined by 2 per cent in Western Australia to 405 cents a kilogram and 1 per cent to 406 cents a kilogram in New South Wales. Victoria was the only state to record an increase with the indicator price rising 1 per cent to 430 cents a kilogram.
3.2. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable pricesWeekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market
Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market
3.3. Selected world indicator prices
3.4. Crop indicator prices
3.5. Livestock indicator prices
4. Data attributionClimateBureau of Meteorology Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Soil moisture (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/ awap /
WaterNew South Wales New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx
Available water determinations register: www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4Queensland Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au seqwater: http://seqwater.com.auSouth Australia SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm
South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/
Victoria Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.auWater trading
Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au
CommoditiesFruit and vegetables
Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.auMutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspxCattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-marketsCanola
Weekly Times: hardcopy
