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04/
21/
231
xx
2005-01-27
Generic Support forDecision-Making in
Effects-Based Managementof Operations
Defendant: KLAS WALLENIUS
Opponent: Prof. MIECZYSLAW M. KOKAR, Northeastern University, Boston
Defense of Doctoral ThesisJanuary 27, 2006
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Correction
p. 156
[Wallenius, 2004] Klas Wallenius. On support for situation awareness in command and control. In Proc. Seventh International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2004), Stockholm Sweden, June 28 to July 1, 2004. In press.
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Outline
• The PhD Project
• The work supported: Effects-Based Management of Operations
• Situation Awareness and Data Fusion
• DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control• The common situation model• Command support• Decision support
• Example Case: Riots at a Summit
• Conclusions and Further Work
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Outline
• The PhD Project
• The work supported: Effects-Based Management of Operations
• Situation Awareness and Data Fusion
• DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control• The common situation model• Command support• Decision support
• Example Case: Riots at a Summit
• Conclusions and Further Work
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
The PhD Project• September 2000 – September 2005
• Performed• In Parallel and Scientific Computing
Institute• At School of Computer Science and
Communication, Royal Institute of Technology
• Sponsors• Vinnova• Saab Systems
• Supervisors• Prof. Stefan Arnborg, Nada• Prof. Berndt Brehmer, the Swedish
Defence Research Agency
• Involved in the work• Decision Support Group at Nada• DISCCO Project Group at Saab Systems• Contact Group at Saab Systems
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Outline
• The PhD Project
• The work supported: Effects-Based Management of Operations
• Situation Awareness and Data Fusion
• DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control• The common situation model• Command support• Decision support
• Example Case: Riots at a Summit
• Conclusions and Further Work
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Driving events: Berlin Wall, Estonia, World Trade Center, Madrid, Asia, Storm and Power Failure..
Change in threats New missions New technology
Background: Changed Threats in the
world
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
The Swedish Network-Based Defence
• No current threats to Swedish territory• Reduced number of forces• Methodology and technology transition• Cooperate with other organizations
• Based on ‘Network Centric Warfare’ and the ‘Revolution in Military Affairs’• Common Situation Awareness• Decision Superiority• Adaptable Organization• Precision Engagement
• It has been claimed that superior information will increase effects tremendously
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
People involved in management of
operations
• Military commanders and soldiers
• Rescue workers
• Incident commanders
• Police
• Crisis management
• Etc.
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Time span of decision-making during long-term crisis preparation
Individuals withwearable equipment
Groups in mobile units
Crisis and operation management in staffs. Meeting context.
Long term planning in normal office environments.
Time for decision-making
Days
Hours
Seconds
Minutes
Months
Local Authorities
Municipalities
County Administrative Board
National Authorities
Government
Ministries
EU
UN
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Time span of decision-making
during an upcoming crisis
Individuals withwearable equipment
Groups in mobile units
Crisis and operation management in staffs. Meeting context.
Long term planning in normal office environments.
Time for decision-making
Days
Hours
Seconds
Minutes
Months
Local Authorities
Municipalities
County Administrative Board
National Authorities
Government
Ministries
EU
UN
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Time span of decision-making during a military
operation
Individuals withwearable equipment
Groups in mobile units
Crisis and operation management in staffs. Meeting context.
Large scale planning in normal office environments. Time for
decision-making
Days
Hours
Seconds
Minutes
Months
Small units
Larger units
Joint Headquarters
Battlegroup
Supreme Commander
Government
Ministry of Defence
EU
UN
Army, Air Force, and Naval Headquarters
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
A process for obtaining a desired strategic outcome on the enemy, through the synergistic, multiplicative, and cumulative application of the full range of military and non-military capabilities at the tactical, operational, and strategical levels.
US Joint Forces Command Glossary
Effects-Based Operations
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Effects-Based Management of
Operations
• An interpretation from a decision-making perspective:• Make optimal use of available
resources to achieve effects according the task.
• The act of making decisions for subordinated resources regarding tasks and organization
• How to develop technical tools supporting this work?
• Both Civilian and Military Applications
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
EBO should consider effects beyond tactical
goals
• Facilitate the consideration of conflicting interests and goals in different dimensions• Human lives• Democratic rights• Infrastructure• Economy
• Main question: What if?
• Inherently uncertain – consider risks!
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Decision-Making
• Prescriptive Theories• Decision Theory• Game Theory• Bayesian Approaches
• Descriptive Theories• Cognitive Psychology• Distributed Cognition• Naturalistic Decision-Making
(Klein, 1989)
• Military Decision-Making Methods• “Guide-Lines for Operational
Planning” (GOP)• “Bedömandemallen”• “Planning under Time Pressure”
(Thunholm, 2003)
EvolveTask
What?
EvolveSolutions
How?
PredictOutcome
Compare to
Task
MakeDecision
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Outline
• The PhD Project
• The work supported: Effects-Based Management of Operations
• Situation Awareness and Data Fusion
• DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control• The common situation model• Command support• Decision support
• Example Case: Riots at a Summit
• Conclusions and Further Work
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Artifacts to Improve Situation Awareness
Hugin and Munin ('thought' and 'memory') – Odin’s two ravens
Crystal Balls
Sauron’s Palantirs Galadriel’s Mirror
The Marauder’s Map The Chain Home Radar System
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Data Fusion
Radar Infa Red Sensor
GPSESM
Data Fusion
Data Fusion is the process of combining data or information to estimate or predict entity states. Steinberg and Bowman 2001
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Type: F16
Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Local Air Pictures
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
A Common Air Picture
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Wide AreaNetwork
WCU
GlobalTracks
SuperiorLocal Tracks
SensorFusion
Presen-tation
WC
U WC
U
WCUWCU
WASP – The Wide Area Situation
Picture
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Situation Awareness and the JDL Model
Situation Awareness
Level 1Perception of Elements in Current Situation
Level 1Perception of Elements in Current Situation
Level 2Comprehension
of Current Situation
Level 2Comprehension
of Current Situation
Level 3Projection of
FutureStatus
Level 3Projection of
FutureStatus
DecisionDecisionPerformance
of ActionsPerformance
of Actions
Goals & ObjectivesPreconceptions
Goals & ObjectivesPreconceptions
Feedback
Data Fusion Domain
Level 1Object
Assessment
Level 1Object
Assessment
Level 2Situation
Assessment
Level 2Situation
Assessment
Level 3Impact
Assessment
Level 3Impact
Assessment
Level 0Sub-ObjectAssessment
Level 0Sub-ObjectAssessment
Level 4Process
Refinement
Level 4Process
Refinement
Human/ComputerInterface
Human/ComputerInterface
SourcesSources
DatabaseManagement
System
DatabaseManagement
System
• Mica Endsley (1985)
• Joint Directors of Laboratories
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Situation Awareness and the JDL Model
Situation Awareness
Level 1Perception of Elements in Current Situation
Level 1Perception of Elements in Current Situation
Level 2Comprehension
of Current Situation
Level 2Comprehension
of Current Situation
Level 3Projection of
FutureStatus
Level 3Projection of
FutureStatus
DecisionDecisionPerformance
of ActionsPerformance
of Actions
Goals & ObjectivesPreconceptions
Goals & ObjectivesPreconceptions
Feedback
Data Fusion Domain
Level 1Object
Assessment
Level 1Object
Assessment
Level 2Situation
Assessment
Level 2Situation
Assessment
Level 3Impact
Assessment
Level 3Impact
Assessment
Level 0Sub-ObjectAssessment
Level 0Sub-ObjectAssessment
Level 4Process
Refinement
Level 4Process
Refinement
Human/ComputerInterface
Human/ComputerInterface
SourcesSources
DatabaseManagement
System
DatabaseManagement
System
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Situation Awareness and the JDL Model
Situation Awareness
Level 1Perception of Elements in Current Situation
Level 1Perception of Elements in Current Situation
Level 2Comprehension
of Current Situation
Level 2Comprehension
of Current Situation
Level 3Projection of
FutureStatus
Level 3Projection of
FutureStatus
DecisionDecisionPerformance
of ActionsPerformance
of Actions
Goals & ObjectivesPreconceptions
Goals & ObjectivesPreconceptions
Feedback
Data Fusion Domain
Level 1Object
Assessment
Level 1Object
Assessment
Level 2Situation
Assessment
Level 2Situation
Assessment
Level 3Impact
Assessment
Level 3Impact
Assessment
Level 0Sub-ObjectAssessment
Level 0Sub-ObjectAssessment
Level 4Process
Refinement
Level 4Process
Refinement
Human/ComputerInterface
Human/ComputerInterface
SourcesSources
DatabaseManagement
System
DatabaseManagement
System
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Situation Awareness and the JDL Model
Situation Awareness
Level 1Perception of Elements in Current Situation
Level 1Perception of Elements in Current Situation
Level 2Comprehension
of Current Situation
Level 2Comprehension
of Current Situation
Level 3Projection of
FutureStatus
Level 3Projection of
FutureStatus
DecisionDecisionPerformance
of ActionsPerformance
of Actions
Goals & ObjectivesPreconceptions
Goals & ObjectivesPreconceptions
Feedback
Data Fusion Domain
Level 1Object
Assessment
Level 1Object
Assessment
Level 2Situation
Assessment
Level 2Situation
Assessment
Level 3Impact
Assessment
Level 3Impact
Assessment
Level 0Sub-ObjectAssessment
Level 0Sub-ObjectAssessment
Level 4Process
Refinement
Level 4Process
Refinement
Human/ComputerInterface
Human/ComputerInterface
SourcesSources
DatabaseManagement
System
DatabaseManagement
System
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Info on own andcollaborating forces
Info on other forces
L3: ProjectionPotential intentionsand their consequences
L2: RelationsVirtual objects, aggregation, organization
L1: Physical EntitiesSeparate objects
L0: ObservationsUninterpreted data
DISCCO Command Support andthe Common Situation Model
DISCCODecisionSupport
Sensors, Reconnaissance
Levels of Information and Tools Supporting Shared SA
DISCCODecisionSupport
Multi-Sensor Data Fusion
InformationFusion
DISCCODecisionSupport
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Multi-Modal,Ubiquitous
and IntelligentUser Interfaces
L0: Reports
Techniques Supporting Situation Awareness
L1: ObjectsWASP
L2: RelationsCommonSituation
Model
L3: ProjectionInfluenceDiagramWhat If-Calculations
Human AssessmentsAgent-Based SimulationsExpert Systems
Situation AssessmentOntologies and Agent-Based Techniques
Multi-Sensor FusionMSTWASP Correlators
SensorsRadar, IR, GPS, …Human Reporters
Decision EvaluationHuman AssessmentsMulti-Attribute Utilities(Game Theory)
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
A Common Situation Model
Time for decision-making
Days
Hours
Seconds
Minutes
Months
L3: Projection
L2: Relations
L1: PhysicalResources
L0: Observations
The Common Situation Model
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Outline
• The PhD Project
• The work supported: Effects-Based Management of Operations
• Situation Awareness and Data Fusion
• DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control• The common situation model• Command support• Decision support
• Example Case: Riots at a Summit
• Conclusions and Further Work
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
EvolveTask
TemplateGoals,
PreferenceFunction
EvolveSolutionsTemplate
Plans,Learning
Algorithms
PredictOutcomeSimulationModels,
War Gaming
Compare toTaskApply
PreferenceFunction
MakeDecision
Selectthe FittestSolution
EvolveTask
TemplateGoals,
PreferenceFunction
EvolveSolutionsTemplate
Plans,Learning
Algorithms
PredictOutcomeSimulationModels,
War Gaming
Compare toTaskApply
PreferenceFunction
MakeDecision
Selectthe FittestSolution
RoleRole 1
0..1
*
1
0..1
AssignedTasks
0..1
ApprovedPlan
PotentialPlans
*
SuperiorTask
ResourceResource
SuperiorResource
SubordinatedResource
*
**
*1
DefinedSubtasks
DefinedRoles
1*
SubordinatedRoles
SuperiorRoles
DefinedResources Responsible
Role
AffectingTasks
AffectedResources
AffectedTasks
AffectedPlans
*
**
1
1
**
AffectingTasks
AffectingTasks
DefiningPlan
DefiningPlan
DefiningPlan
Task TypeTask TypeCapability
Service
Type
1
*
*
*
*
*
*
Goals
Task
Goals
Task
Assessed Fulfillment
PlanAssessed Fulfillment
Plan
DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and
Control
• A Common Situation Model
• Command Support
• Decision Support
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
A Generic Approach
• Goals, tasks, resources, are relevant concepts, irrespective of managed domain
• Similar tools, methods, and info, across the dynamic organization
• Adaptable to specific tasks
• Facilitates flexible interoperability and cost-effective solutions
• Complementary to specialized applications • Open problem space• More time• From the human perspective
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
The Ontology: A Vocabulary for Describing Situations
Represents • The dynamic
networked based organization of resources, tasks and plans
• What is known of friendly and other forces
• From highest to lowest decision levels
Role 1
0..1
*
1
0..1
AssignedTasks
0..1
ApprovedPlan
PotentialPlans
*
SuperiorTask
Resource
SuperiorResource
SubordinatedResource
*
**
*1
DefinedSubtasks
DefinedRoles
1*
SubordinatedRoles
SuperiorRoles
DefinedResources Responsible
Role
AffectingTasks
AffectedResources
AffectedTasks
AffectedPlans
*
**
1
1
**
AffectingTasks
AffectingTasks
DefiningPlan
DefiningPlan
DefiningPlan
Task TypeCapability
Service
Type
1
*
*
*
*
*
*
Goals
Task
Assessed Fulfillment
Plan
RoleRole 1
0..1
*
1
0..1
AssignedTasks
0..1
ApprovedPlan
PotentialPlans
*
SuperiorTask
ResourceResource
SuperiorResource
SubordinatedResource
*
**
*1
DefinedSubtasks
DefinedRoles
1*
SubordinatedRoles
SuperiorRoles
DefinedResources Responsible
Role
AffectingTasks
AffectedResources
AffectedTasks
AffectedPlans
*
**
1
1
**
AffectingTasks
AffectingTasks
DefiningPlan
DefiningPlan
DefiningPlan
Task TypeTask TypeCapability
Service
Type
1
*
*
*
*
*
*
Goals
Task
Goals
Task
Assessed Fulfillment
PlanAssessed Fulfillment
Plan
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
An Example
Under OPCOM (Role)
Transport (Service)
Attack (Service)
101 Mech. Bn (Resource)
Transport (Capability)
Attack (Capability)
10 Mech. Bde(Resource)
Local Police(Resource)
Some Material(Resource)
Support With Transports (Role)
Transport (Service)
Transport (Task)
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
An Example
Under OPCOM (Role)
Transport (Service)
Attack (Service)
101 Mech. Bn (Resource)
Transport (Capability)
Attack (Capability)
10 Mech. Bde(Resource)
Local Police(Resource)
Some Material(Resource)
Support With Transports (Role)
Transport (Service)
Transport (Task)
GFOR Order of Battle (Plan)
10 BrigadeBattle Plan
(Plan)
Police’s CurrentDispatches (Plan)
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Command Support
L3: Projection
L2: Relations
L1: PhysicalResources
L0: Observations
The Common Situation Model
L3: Projection
L2: Relations
L1: PhysicalResources
L0: Observations
The Common Situation Model
L3: Projection
L2: Relations
L1: PhysicalResources
L0: Observations
The Common Situation Model
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Command SupportTools
• Support for navigating and maintaining the common model of the situation
• Provide support to describe and visualize problems and solutions in different views
• Once a solution (= a plan) is described it could be the subject for evaluation, as well as the baseline for an execution order
• Integrates planning and execution phases
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Predicted Effects
Protect Meeting & VIPNo CasualtiesRight to DemonstrateCapture TroublemakersProtect Infrastructure
Ok Compromised SevereTopMeeting
Overall priorities
Legend
Outcome Probabilities
Peaceful Protesters (clusters of 100)
Troublemakers (clusters of 10)
Own Units
Important Object
VIP_1
VIP_2
Decision Support EvolveTask
TemplateGoals,
PreferenceFunction
EvolveSolutionsTemplate
Plans,Learning
Algorithms
PredictOutcomeSimulation
Models,War Gaming
Compare toTaskApply
PreferenceFunction
MakeDecision
Selectthe FittestSolution
EvolveTask
TemplateGoals,
PreferenceFunction
EvolveSolutionsTemplate
Plans,Learning
Algorithms
PredictOutcomeSimulation
Models,War Gaming
Compare toTaskApply
PreferenceFunction
MakeDecision
Selectthe FittestSolution
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Decision Support
Tools
• Enhance the human processto generate and evaluate solutions
• Support evaluation also during execution
• Gradual development of simulation and AI technology
EvolveTask
TemplateGoals,
PreferenceFunction
EvolveSolutionsTemplate
Plans,Learning
Algorithms
PredictOutcomeSimulation
Models,War Gaming
Compare toTaskApply
PreferenceFunction,
Game Theory
MakeDecision
Selectthe FittestSolution
EvolveTask
TemplateGoals,
PreferenceFunction
EvolveSolutionsTemplate
Plans,Learning
Algorithms
PredictOutcomeSimulation
Models,War Gaming
Compare toTaskApply
PreferenceFunction,
Game Theory
MakeDecision
Selectthe FittestSolution
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Predicted Effects from Expert Systems
What ifExpert Systemor a Simulator
CombinationOf Actions
P(Effects)
P (Situation) P (Behavior)
• While the expert systems are domain specific, DISCCO may be kept general
• The results from the questions are stored in influence diagrams, maintaining a causal model between actions and effects
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
An ID represented in GENIE connected to the simulator
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Going From a Chance Node to a ’Probabar’
OK (Casualties = 0)
Compromised (0 < Casualties ≤ 100)
Severe (100 ≤ Casualties)
52 %
38 %
10 %
Goal: No Casualties
Goal: No Casualties
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Outline
• The PhD Project
• The work supported: Effects-Based Management of Operations
• Situation Awareness and Data Fusion
• DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control• The common situation model• Command support• Decision support
• Example Case: Riots at a Summit
• Conclusions and Further Work
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Example Problem:Riots at a Summit
• Peaceful demonstrations and protests at a summit that degenerate into riots
• The security operation is managed by the police or by the military
• Protecting the right to demonstrate, human lives, the security of the top meeting, and private property, impose conflicting goals
• Psychological and social reactions must be considered
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
DISCCO
Protect Meeting & VIPNo CasualtiesRight to DemonstrateCapture TroublemakersProtect Infrastructure
Ok Compromised SevereSummit
Overall priorities
Legend
Outcome Probabilities
Peaceful Demonstrants
Troublemakers
Own Units
Protected Object
VIP_1
VIP_2
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
DISCCO
Protect Meeting & VIPNo CasualtiesRight to DemonstrateCapture TroublemakersProtect Infrastructure
Ok Compromised SevereSummit
Overall priorities
Legend
Outcome Probabilities
Peaceful Demonstrants
Troublemakers
Own Units
Protected Object
VIP_1
VIP_2
EscortSeparateBlock RoadReconnaissance
EscortSeparateBlock RoadReconnaissance
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
DISCCO
Protect Meeting & VIPNo CasualtiesRight to DemonstrateCapture TroublemakersProtect Infrastructure
Ok Compromised SevereSummit
Overall priorities
Legend
Outcome Probabilities
Peaceful Demonstrants
Troublemakers
Own Units
Protected Object
VIP_1
VIP_2
Send Instructions
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
DISCCO
Protect Meeting & VIPNo CasualtiesRight to DemonstrateCapture TroublemakersProtect Infrastructure
Ok Compromised SevereSummit
Overall priorities
Legend
Outcome Probabilities
Peaceful Demonstrants
Troublemakers
Own Units
Protected Object
VIP_1
VIP_2
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Example of an Embedded Agent-Based Simulator
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
An ID represented in GENIE connected to the simulator
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Outline
• The PhD Project
• The work supported: Effects-Based Management of Operations
• Situation Awareness and Data Fusion
• DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control• The common situation model• Command support• Decision support
• Example Case: Riots at a Summit
• Conclusions and Further Work
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
DISCCO: Scope and Solved Problems
• Support a higher order situation awareness, including• Own, hostile, allied and hostile units, important objects• Available capabilities• Assigned and assumed tasks and intents, organization• Monitoring and predicting effects and risks
• Facilitate fast planning and re-planning on the fly• ”What if” - design a plan and predict its effects• Issuing orders based on the plan• Reorganize in real time
• Enable collaboration between command levels and among peers
• Admit reuse of software and skills between different positions and activities
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Currently Investigated Cases
Time for decision-making
Days
Hours
Minutes
Months
Tactical Command:Establish Surveillance
Tactical Command:Riot ControlSeconds
Joint Forces Command:Planning for NBC Defence
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
A roadmap for thedevelopment of DISCCO
Support for describing situation, tasks.Issuing orders
Dependent actions, uncertain information
Evaluation andmonitoring of plans through all phases
Support for gene-rating excellentplans
Bayesian networksand game theory
Situation model: ontology and distributed database
Integration with other services
CommandSupport (Methodologyand HMI)
Learning Algorithms
DecisionSupport(Technology)
Situation pictureGIS
Information Fusion
Security Authentication
Embedded agent-based simulation
GraphicalPlanning
PlanEvaluation
PlanGeneration
RiskAssessment
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Continued Efforts
• Research• ROMEO – Research on
Management of Effective Operations
• Industrial Development• Work on DISCCO
• Hopefully this thesis provides a solid baseline for this work
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
Main Contributions in the Thesis
• A definition of ’Effects-Based Managament of Operations’
• The WASP approach to maintain a common situation picture
• The common situation model• A classification of the contents and tools to maintain
it• A definition of information quality• A generic ontology
• Examples of command support to manually maintain the model
• Examples of decision support to predict effects of actions• Use of monte carlo simulation and influence
diagrams• A preference function• Visualisation of effects in accordance to the task
• Three case studies
Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations
PublishedMaterial
• [Arnborg et. al. 2000] Stefan Arnborg, Henrik Artman, Joel Brynielsson, and Klas Wallenius. Information Awareness in Command and Control: Precision, Quality, Utility. In Proceedings Third International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2000), pp. ThB1/25–32, Paris, July 2000.
• [Wallenius, 2000] Klas Wallenius. A Network Centric Info-Structure for the Swedish Armed Forces. In Milinf 2000, Enköping, Sweden, 2000.
• [Wallenius, 2000a] Klas Wallenius. Use of Modern Information Technology: WASP - A Common View of the Situation. In Technet Europe, 21st AFCEA Europe Symposium & Exposition, Prague, the Czech Republic, 2000.
• [Bergman and Wallenius, 2001] Niclas Bergman and Klas Wallenius. Providing the Common View of the Situation – the WASP Approach. In Information Management Challenges in Achieving Coalition Interoperability, Quebec City, Canada, May 29-30, 2001.
• [Brynielsson and Wallenius, 2001] Joel Brynielsson and Klas Wallenius. Game Environment for Command and Control Operations (GECCO). In Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Cognitive Research With Microworlds, pages 85–95, Granada, Spain, November 2001.
• [Brynielsson and Wallenius, 2003] Joel Brynielsson and Klas Wallenius. A Toolbox for Multi-Attribute Decision-Making. Technical Report TRITA-NA-0307, Department of Numerical Analysis and Computer Science, Royal Institute of Technology, 2003.
• [Huang et al., 2003] Qi Huang, Jenny Hållmats, Klas Wallenius, and Joel Brynielsson. Simulation-Based Decision Support for Command and Control in Joint Operations. In European Simulation Interoperability Workshop 2003, 03E-SIW-091, pages 591-599, Stockholm, Sweden, June 16-19, 2003.
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