Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
12.12.2007 Potsdam
BIOENERGY DEVELOPMENT–
POLISH MARKET OVERVIEW
Institute for Fuels and Renewable Energy
12.12.2007 Potsdam
GENERAL INFO
Poland – country in Central Europe312.680 km2 area; 38,7 mln peopleForests - 28,1 % Poland, i.e. 8.8 mln ha. Agricultural lands – ca. 60% of the Poland. Growing consumption of electricity and transport fuels
89% of land potentially suitable for forestry and agro biomass production for energy purposes
73,2%
15,5%
1,0%
4,5%
5,9%
hard coal lignite crude oil natural gas other
Primary energy prod 2003
59,67%
29,41%
1,61%
0,12%
3,42%3,08%
2,69% agricultural land
forests and wooded landwaters
rocks
transport
residentialwasteland
Area cover 2003
12.12.2007 Potsdam
Bioenergy types
RES in Poland
Liquid biofuels Biomass Other
Solar energyWind energy
BiogasGeothermal energy
12.12.2007 Potsdam
Biofuels- Polish approach
up to 5% of biocomponents in traditional fuels common availability of particular kinds of
biofuels: B20, B100 (at present)E85 (in the process of preparation)
designated fleetspossibility of producing of liquid biofuels by
farmers for own useobligation of minimal share of biocomponents
12.12.2007 Potsdam
Biocomponents in Poland in 2005
250,6
88,9
42,8
184,7
64,3
17,1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Bioethanol FAME
Production capacity
Production
Use
12.12.2007 Potsdam
National indicative target (%)
5,75
2,3
1,5
0,50,30
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004 Fulfilled
2005 Fulfilled
2006 2007 2010
12.12.2007 Potsdam
Bioenergy demand
POLICY
Support mechanisms
Biological diversity
Land cultivation principles
Spatial planning system
R&D
Other RES availability
Bioenergy production development
Technologies of harvesting, storage and
processing
MARKET
Competitive land use
Price rates for different energy crops
Is the bioenergy production competitive to the
traditional production
12.12.2007 Potsdam
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENERGY CROPS in Poland
2,3 mln ha of fallow and set-aside land in 2002 (13,6% of agricultural land), increase from 1,6 mln in 1996
Arable land 0,37 ha per capita 0,18 ha in EU-15 Cereals production 0,23 ha per capita 0,10 ha in EU-15 Cereals yields 3,1 t/ha 5,5 t/ha in EU-15 Extensive type of agricultural production, possible increase in
land productivity Current surplus of agricultural production, decrease in
farmers incomes Strong agriculture and agro-industry lobby, sugar market
reform (December 2005)
12.12.2007 Potsdam
competitiveness – available land
Food and feed
Bio-materials
Biofuels
Other
Available landForests
12.12.2007 Potsdam
LAND ALLOCATION RULES
Food production is a priority, only the surplus land can be allocated for energy crops
Land can be released from:Food, fodder and industrial crops, due to yield
increaseThe effect of yield increase is higher than the
change in consumption rate
Fallow land100% of fallow land will be available for energy
crops in 2020
12.12.2007 Potsdam
LAND ALLOCATION RULES
Land from export surpluses
30% of the cereal export could be converted to energy crops in 2020
30% of pork export recalculated into fodder cereals
30% of beef exports – at max 10% of permanent grassland for energy crops
12.12.2007 Potsdam
PERSPECTIVES FOR DIFFERENT BIOMASS RESOURCES
Forestry resources limited
Wood industry by-products utilized, no surplus
Great potential for energy crops: Large production potential of
agriculture
Structural changes & CAP reform- increase of set-aside land
Need for alternative production in agriculture
12.12.2007 Potsdam
RES utilization for electricity production in 2005
Energy source Number of installations
Electricity production in GWh Total production share %
Biomass (100%) 6 467 12,4
Biomass - co firing 16 877 23,3
Biogas 72 103 2,7
Wind energy 86 135 3,6
Hydropower 679 2175 57,9
Total 859 3758 100,0
12.12.2007 Potsdam
Type of solid biomass Potential Use
PJ/a % PJ/a %
Straw 114.0 17,1 1,5 0,9
Hay 10,0 10,0 0,0 0,0
Timber from fruit growing 15,0 2,3 1,0 0,6
Energy crops 212 31,9 0,3 0,2
Total agricultural biomass 351,0 52,8 2,8 1,7
Forest stocks 240,0 36,1 104,0 65,0
Wood industrial wastes 30,0 4,5 24,0 15,0
post-user timber wastes 43,0 6,5 29,0 18,1
Timber from the roads cherishing
1,0 0,2 0,1 0,1
Total solid biomass 665,0 100,0 160,0 100,0
12.12.2007 Potsdam
Problems related to bioenergy implementation
Implementation of the energy crops into the agricultural production system – lack of equipment
High starting investment costs
High costs of preparation of the technical infrastructure in energy plants
Lack of experience with RES market organizing
Raw material quality – biomass plant demands
12.12.2007 Potsdam
Conclusions
New support mechanisms in polish energetic low and financial resources available for the RES development in the National Development Plan 2007-2013 should increase the RES share in the following years
Time is main barrier in achievement of quantitative goals. Biomass potential is big, but time and stable politico-economical situation is needed on their start-ups (e.g. 4 years for salix)
Biomass wastes from industry and agricultural production is to little utilized
12.12.2007 Potsdam
Conclusions
Land availability is one of the important
factors, the others are:
Crop suitability (yield levels),
Crops economic competitiveness/profitability,
Implementation strategies
