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1 1 1 John Leahy Chief Operating Officer Customers Airbus Commercial Update Global Investor Forum 2009, Broughton, 1 st & 2 nd April 2009

12 Howes Leahy EADS GIF print - Airbus · Examples of forward-looking statements include statements made about strategy, ramp-up and delivery schedules, introduction of new products

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Page 1: 12 Howes Leahy EADS GIF print - Airbus · Examples of forward-looking statements include statements made about strategy, ramp-up and delivery schedules, introduction of new products

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John LeahyChief Operating OfficerCustomersAirbus

CommercialUpdate

Global Investor Forum 2009, Broughton, 1st & 2nd April 2009

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Safe Harbour Statement

Disclaimer

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Words such as “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “expects”, “intends”, “plans”, “projects”, “may” and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of forward-looking statements include statements made about strategy, ramp-up and delivery schedules, introduction of new products and services and market expectations, as well as statements regarding future performance and outlook. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to future events and circumstances and there are many factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.

These factors include but are not limited to:

• Changes in general economic, political or market conditions, including the cyclical nature of some of EADS’ businesses;

• Significant disruptions in air travel (including as a result of terrorist attacks);

• Currency exchange rate fluctuations, in particular between the Euro and the U.S. dollar;

• The successful execution of internal performance plans, including cost reduction and productivity efforts;

• Product performance risks, as well as programme development and management risks;

• Customer, supplier and subcontractor performance or contract negotiations, including financing issues;

• Competition and consolidation in the aerospace and defence industry;

• Significant collective bargaining labour disputes;

• The outcome of political and legal processes, including the availability of government financing for certain programmes and the size of defence and space procurement budgets;

• Research and development costs in connection with new products;

• Legal, financial and governmental risks related to international transactions;

• Legal and investigatory proceedings and other economic, political and technological risks and uncertainties.

As a result, EADS’ actual results may differ materially from the plans, goals and expectations set forth in such forward-looking statements. For a discussion of factors that could cause future results to differ from such forward-looking statements, see EADS’ “Registration Document” dated 24th April 2008.

Any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation speaks as of the date of this presentation. EADS undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements in light of new information, future events orotherwise.

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2008 in review

• Delivered 483 aircraft – highest ever for Airbus

• Gross orders of 900 aircraft – third highest ever for Airbus

• Ended year with a backlog of 3,715 aircraft – an industry record

• Some key events in 2H 2008

– July 2008: first A380 delivery to Emirates

– Sep 2008: first A380 delivery to Qantas

– Sep 2008: 1,000th A330 order

– Sep 2008: opened A320 assembly line in Tianjin, China

– Dec 2008: on-time detailed definition freeze on the A350 XWB

A strong year for Airbus in difficult market conditions

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Over 10 years of parity

Year end gross order share

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Boeing81%

Boeing43%

Airbus57%

Airbus19%

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Over 10 years of parity

Year end net order share

0

60

80

100

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

20

40

Boeing83%

Boeing46%

Airbus17%

Airbus54%

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Market share by category - net

100-200 seater956 orders

275-375 seater264 orders

200-275 seater207 orders

375+ seater12 orders

61% 39% 75%25%

160A330-300A350-900A350-1000A340

104777

787-9

9A380

3747

ACJ 9 47%BBJ 10 53%

ACJ 9 47%BBJ 10 53%

A350 163 64%787 93 36%

A350 163 64%787 93 36%

472A320Family

484737

49% 51% 66% 34%136A310A330-200A350-800

71767

787-3787-8

2008 net orders

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2009 market share

Units

45 ordersindustry

Airbus

22 a/c

Boeing

23 a/c50%49%

Revenues

Airbus

$2.9bn

$5.4 bnindustry

Boeing

$2.5bn54% 46%

2009 gross orders

Data as of 30 March 2009

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2009 market share

Units

-1 ordersindustry

Airbus8 a/c

Boeing-9 a/c100%

Revenues

Airbus

$1.8bn

$-1.3 bnindustry

Boeing

$-3.1bn100%

2009 net orders

Data as of 30 March 2009

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Market Outlook

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-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2000

-02

2000

-08

2001

-02

2001

-08

2002

-02

2002

-08

2003

-02

2003

-08

2004

-02*

2004

-08

2005

-02*

2005

-08

2006

-02

2006

-08

2007

-02

2007

-08

2008

-02*

2008

-08

2009

-02*

Freight traffic trends

Freight traffic (IATA international + domestic ATA + domestic AEA FTKs year over year change)

Source: IATA-MIS (March 2009), ATA, AEA

Cargo traffic down 19%, but capacity reduced by only 7%

9/11 SARS

17 monthspeak to trough

8 monthspeak to trough

13 monthsfrom peak

Capacityreduction

* leap year adjusted

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-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2000

-02

2000

-08

2001

-02

2001

-08

2002

-02

2002

-08

2003

-02

2003

-08

2004

-02*

2004

-08

2005

-02*

2005

-08

2006

-02

2006

-08

2007

-02

2007

-08

2008

-02*

2008

-08

2009

-02*

Passenger traffic trends

Passenger traffic (IATA international + domestic ATA + domestic AEA RPKs year over year change)

9/11 SARS

10 monthspeak to trough

7 monthspeak to trough

15 monthsfrom peak

Passenger traffic down 8% and capacity already reduced by 6%Source: IATA-MIS (March 2009), ATA, AEA

Capacityreduction

* leap year adjusted

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Economists anticipate recession bottoms in 3Q 2009

Real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Strong growthsince 2004

Slowdown Deep crisis Recovery Completerecovery

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

World USA Western Europe

Japan Other adv economies Emerging economies

Source: Global Insight (March 2009), Airbus

We are here

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-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Still a two-speed World

Emerging economies

Advanced economies

Real GDP growth (%)

Source: Global Insight (March 2009), Airbus

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Previous downturns & recoveries

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

79-80-81-82-83

90-91-92-93-94

00-01-02-03-04

07-08-09-10-11

World air traffic growth (%RPKs)

2007 2008(Estimate)

2009(Forecast*)

2010(Forecast*)

2011(Forecast)

Source: ICAO, Airbus Market Research and Forecast

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Traffic recovery anticipated for 2010

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

07-08-09-10-11

World air traffic growth (%RPKs)

2007 2008(Estimate)

2009(Forecast*)

2010(Forecast*)

2011(Forecast)

Best case

Worst case

Source: ICAO, Airbus Market Research and Forecast

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Boeing/MDC deliveries

Airbus deliveries

4 significant down cycles in the last 40 years

Deliveries (>100 seats)

Conservative production planning helps against downturns

-7%

-50%

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Backlog

Cancellations

A strong, well-managed order book

Data at end December 2008

Order cancellations are rare, even in 2001 and 2002

Airbus order backlog vs order cancellations

3%3%1%3%02%4%6%2%4%3%

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Airbus backlog is well balanced

North America8% / 17%

Latin America6% / 5%

Europe19% / 19%

Africa2% / 2%

Middle East13% / 7%

Asia* / Pacific21% / 21%Lessors

18% / 20%

Corporate Jet3% / 2%

China11% / 8%

Airbus

Boeing

*Includes Indian sub-ContinentData March 2009

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Customer backlog

Top ten customers’ backlog

1 US Airways 138

2 Emirates 124

3 Air Asia 116

4 DAE Capital 100

5 EasyJet 89

6 Qatar Airways 85

7 CIT Leasing 82

8= TAM 76

8= IndiGo 76

10 AWAS 75

Total 956

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0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Air travel remains a strong growth market

Air traffichas doubled

every 15 years

Air trafficwill doublein the next15 years

ICAO total traffic Airbus

Source: ICAO, Airbus

World annual traffic (RPK – trillions)

4.7% annual growth

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2121

6,311 firm orders

3,789 delivered

219 customers(February 2009)

A320 Family

472A320Family

484737

49% 51%

2008 net unit share

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The best keeps getting better…

SystemsEnhanced Braking and Steering Control System (2000)New Cabin Intercommunication Data System (2003)Integrated Stand-by Instrument System (2003)…

EnginesNoise Improvement Package (2003)CFM Tech Insertion (2007)IAE Select Programme (2008),,,

CabinNew Cabin (2007)…

StructureLaser beam welding (2003)A319 double over-wing exit (2003)Weight savings (2005 on)Aerodynamic Improvements (2007/8)…

Performance & OperationsNarrow (30m) runway ops. (2000)Lift Improvement Package (2004)A318 steep approach (2006)FANS A and B (2006)Head-up display (2007)Microwave landing system (2007)GPS landing systems (2007)…

Over €100 million spent per year on development engineering

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Dec

2000

Dec

2001

Dec

2002

Dec

2003

Dec

2004

Dec

2005

Dec

2006

Dec

2007

Dec

2008

Feb

2009

Mar

2009

A320 Family

737 Classic + MD80/90

In the downturn, airlines continue to use the A320

Source CASE (24 March 09)A320 Family = 3,708737 Classic + MD80/MD90 = 3,002

Older, less efficient aircraft are grounded,many will not return to service

Aircraft in storage

2% of fleet

19% of fleet

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2424

A330/A340 Family1,397 firm orders

958 delivered

100 customers(February 2009)

2008 net unit share

62% 38%133A330A340

82767777

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0

50

100

150

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

A330 orders now total over 1,000

Firm orders

Data to end December 2008

Over 500 A330s sold since 787 launch2007, 2008 best years ever

recent orders include:- Full service airlines- Low cost airlines- Leasing companies- Freighters- Tankers

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90

92

94

96

98

100

2007 2008 2009

A330 appraiser valuations

New aircraft values 1H each year

Average valuations of 5 U.S. and European appraisers

New A330-200, $ millions

100

102

104

106

108

110

2007 2008 2009

New A330-300, $ millions

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2008 AirFinance Journal poll

A330-200 highest ranked widebodyA330-300 scores above direct competitors

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2828

478 orders

29 customers(February 2009)

A350 XWB2008 net unit share

64% 36%163A350

93787

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A350 XWB development on-track

Design Development to maturity Ramp-up

A realistic development program leading to on-time EIS

2007 2008 2009 2010 20122011 2013 20152014

Designfreeze

Detaileddefinition

freeze

Startof final

assembly

Firstflight

EIS-900

EIS-800

EIS-1000

Manufacturing & assembly3 years

Flight test15 months

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3030

New generationNew experience

200 firm orders

16 customers(February 2009)

A3802008 net unit share

75% 25%9A380

3747

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0

50

100

150

200

A380 customers

A380 - the new flagship for international airlines

Top international airlines (International RPKs - millions)

The top five international carriers are all A380 customers

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25th October 2008 – a year in service

‘’The A380 has exceeded all expectations,delivered on its promise of reliability and fuel efficiency

and is a favourite with customers.’’Singapore Airlines Press Release

October 25th, 2008

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Providing more capacity, more comfort

Upper deck - true widebody comfort2-2-2 business class, common productwith Airbus long range family

Large innovation potential

Main deck - the widest cabin everwider seats in every class

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0

5

10

15

Average monthly traffic change 2007 to 2008

A380 – attracting passengers Singapore to Sydney

+0%

Source : Airbus DEMAX – IATA PAXis

+0%

+14%

Introduced October 2007

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London *

New York *

Los Angeles

Tokyo *

Dubai *

Singapore *

Sydney *

MelbourneAuckland

ParisSeoul

Bangkok

Toronto

The A380 network is growing

13 A380s in service

3,500 revenue flights

Over 1,300,000 passengersData to March 2009

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A380 – new generation, new experience…

• Best cabin

• Lowest cost

• Designed for world growth

It takes an A380 to compete with an A380!

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0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Air travel is resilient to shocks

Air traffichas doubled

every 15 years

Air trafficwill doublein the next15 years

ICAO total traffic Airbus

Source: ICAO, Airbus

World annual traffic (RPK – trillions)

Air travel remains a strong growth market