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Fears that construction andproperty could be amongthe first serious casualtiesoftheBrexitvoteareasrealin Scotland as south of theborder, according to the

Scottish Property Federation.Speaking in the same week that

StandardLife,AberdeenAssetMan-agement and five other large prop-erty funds imposed blocks oninvestors getting out of their UKproperty funds, SPF director DavidMelhuish said the sector inScotlandwas now braced for a 20%decreasein commercial property deals.“A number of deals have already

been disrupted since the Brexitvote,” Melhuish told the SundayTimes.“Mostlydealshavebeenheldover for a decision following areview but it is possible that somedeals, particularly speculativedevelopments, could be cancelledcompletely.“Ifyoudon’thaveanyspeculative

developments in an economy youeventually run into problems asthere is no spare capacity to meetmajor corporate demand and thatcan become counterproductive.”

Ontopof acollapse inconfidencein the sector — which has still notrecovered its pre-financial crisisinvestment levels — the mostimmediate impact of Brexit,Melhuish says, is the decline insterling which will lead to highercosts for buildingmaterials.And if freedom of movement is

curtailed as a result of Brexit theconstruction industry will take afurther hit.“There is a skills shortage in the

industry and anything that impactson freedom of movement wouldexacerbate that situation,” he says.Melhuish also fears that access to

capital could become harder fordevelopers post-Brexit, as 80% ofcapital investment for the industrycomes through London. “Foreigninvestment could also dry up asinternational capital always has itschoices and cities around the worldare competing for capital,” he said.Alasdair Humphery, Scotland

director of real estate giant JLL, saidthat the economic uncertainty andvolatility caused by exiting the EUmeans that inward investment forthecommercialproperty sectorwill

LISTS AREIMPORTANT FOR MEBECAUSE I’M NOTAS SYSTEMATIC ASI COULD BE

Take No 15: net worth of $1bn(£772m), after taxes (not yetachieved). No 25: own a yacht.No 30: own a Ferrari.Many of his achievements are

impressive, and his openness isrefreshing. I would not be sobrave. I find that one result ofwriting down a dream is that itbecomesmore concrete, even ifyou are the only audience.Preparing a business plan for a

new enterprisemakes thewholeundertakingmore real, andembodiesmore of a commitment.In a similar vein, attendees at

this year’s Founders Forumreceived a book called 101 ThingsTo Do Before You Die, by RichardHorne. It is a tongue-in-cheeklittle manual, aimed at charting“your sporting triumphs, yoursexual misadventures, yourlifetime struggles and yourreckless behaviour”. Althoughsome of the items are foolish (getarrested, get barred from a pub), I

like the author’s approach: takerisks; be creative; be patient; pushyourself; take the opportunity.I was surprised at some things

on the list that I had done, such asthrowing a house partywhenmyparents were out (and, yes, it ledto a lot of trouble), but I suspect Iwill not even get to 50 by the timeI’m dead. The two items on thelist I’dmost like to do, but I’m notsure I ever will, are buildmy ownhouse and invent something.There is also a website called

Dayzero, which describes itself asthe largest community of goal-setters in theworld. It sets thechallenge of doing 101 things in1,001 days, making the point thatopen-endedbucket lists tendnot towork: there need to be deadlines.Some think to do lists are a bad

idea. A Forbes article claimed that“Millionaires Don’t Use To DoLists” because they don’t accountfor time, they don’t distinguishbetween urgent and important,and they contribute to stress.Instead, the article argued, one’sdiary is the key device formanaging one’s life.My view about lists is that the

items on them should be specific,actionable, non-conflicting andprioritised. Also, lists should beshort and regularly updated.Be proud that you are a list

maker— all the best people do it.Luke Johnson is chairman ofRisk Capital Partners and theInstitute of Cancer Research.

luke@riskcapitalpartners.co.uk@LukeJohnsonRCP

LUKEJOHNSON

ANIMAL SPIRITS

Appetite forconstructionlost in theEU crossfire

SCOTTISH SCENEMARK LATHAM

I HAVE a guilty secret: I likewriting lists. Formany years Ihave carried a little notebook inwhich I jot down “to do” items,and these scribbled remindershelpme to organisemy life.I was reassured that this wasn’t

a weird habit when I read TheChecklist Manifesto, whichwaspublished in 2010 by respectedsurgeon and author AtulGawande. He shows how tickingoff a series of procedures, whetherit be pilots flying a plane orsurgeons undertaking anoperation, reduces errors whenundertaking complex tasks.Lists are important forme

because I am not, by nature, assystematic inmywork as I couldbe. Sometimes I concentrate toomuch on the big picture and relytoomuch on intuition. Checklistsmean I am less likely to forget vitaldetails. I follow in the footsteps ofmen such as oil tycoon John DRockefeller. He always kept anotebook to jot down ideas, as didThomas Edison. I have alwaysadmired Benjamin Franklin. Hecommitted to self-improvementwith the help of lists in hisnotebook.When hewas 79, hesaid: “I am indebted tomynotebook for the happiness of mywhole life.”I write an annual list of

objectives, but I have neverprepared a lifetime set of goals,unlike American entrepreneurTed Leonsis, whomade a fortuneas one of the early executives atAOL and owns a number ofAmerican sports teams.Leonsis explained: “I wasn’t

exactly surewhat it meant to livelife on offense [with intent], but Idecided that a good place to startwas givingmyself a scorecard, atool that I could use tomake surethat I accomplish everything Iwant to.”Hemade a list of 101 things he

wanted to do, whichmakesfascinating reading. He divides itinto seven categories: familymatters; financial matters;possessions; charities; sports;travel; and stuff. The list is veryrevealing and very American.

List-makers, be proud:all the best people do it

If freedom of movement is curtailed then the construction industry will be hit

Cooking with gasIt was heartening to pay a visit toGrangemouth where work isnearing completion on a £450mupgrade to the petrochemical plant— an investment that owners Ineosclaims to be the largest singleprivate investment in manufac-turing in Scotland.In September the plant will

welcome its first shipment of shalegasfromPennsylvaniaaboardoneofthe eight new tankers that theAnglo-Swiss chemicals giant hasbuilt to import liquid ethane toGrangemouth from the US.Theethanewillbestoredinanew

60,000 cubic metre storage tank,the largest ethane storage tank inEurope,whichwill be completed inthe next fewweeks.About5,000,000 tonnesayearof

ethanewillbeprocessedat theplantinto ethylene and polyethylene foruse in plastic bags, cosmetics andpharmaceuticals.John McNally, chief executive of

IneosOlefinsandPolymersUK,saidthe massive investment would helpturn around the company fromannual losses of £100m a year toprofits of more than £100m.“At the moment, because gas

from the Forties field has beendwindling for several years, theplant is running at less than halfcapacity which makes it highlyinefficient. Importing gas fromthe US will allow us to run at fulltilt again.“Eventually, if the moratorium

on fracking in Scotland comes to anend, I would like to be able to useScottish gas to displace theUS shalegas wewill be importing.”

@mark_latham_

need to be “carefully incentivised”in the future.The likelydownturn in the sector

is all the more a shame, Humpherynotes, as the commercial propertysector was doing so well last yearthat the Scottish government inJanuary raised its forecast for reve-nues for thefirstyearof the landandbuildings transaction tax (LBTT),introduced in April 2015.But a downturn in residential

salesmeant that therevised forecastof revenues of £455m (up from anoriginalestimateof£381m),wasnotmet with the government netting£416m, of which £214m came fromnon-residential salesand£202fromthe residential sector.“The funds raised from LBTT’s

first year of operation tell an inter-esting story,” Humphery said. “Onthe face of things, LBTT seems tohave surpassed its targets set by theScottish government, but in actualfact fell well short compared withthe revised forecasts set in Januarythis year.“The commercial property

market has outperformed its pre-dictions, helping to steady the taxsheet when the residential markethas clearly underperformed, rein-forcing initial suspicions that LBTTwouldnegativelyimpacthousesalesat the top end of themarket.“Despite commercial property’s

strong performance in the first yearof LBTT, there still remains a ques-tionmark over the future impact ofthe tax.”“As we move into a second year,

the Scottish government mustunderstand that commercial inves-torsareacutelyalert to the impactofincreasedcostson theiroverall fundperformance.”