Lecture 11:

Transportation, Petroleum Use, and Alternatives

Guest Lecture: Anthony Eggert

Prof. Dan Sperling

November 13, 2012

Fall Quarter 2012Energy and Environmental Aspects of Transportation

Civil and Environmental Engineering (ECI) 163Environmental Science and Policy (ESP) 163

2

Lecture Outline

• Recap and completion of petroleum slides– 10 facts about transportation and oil use– Summary of key issues

• Alternative fuels in transportation– Fuel, vehicle characteristics– Available alternatives to petroleum– Impacts on emissions, energy– Policy strategies

11 Facts of Oil (recap of earlier lecture)

1. Transportation uses over 1/4 of all energy in the U.S.

2. Transportation uses over half of the world’s oil production

3. Transportation depends almost exclusively on petroleum

4. U.S. domestic oil production has declined and imports have increased\

5. World vehicle population (and therefore oil use) is increasing at a rapid rate

6. World oil price is expected to “peak” “soon”

7. Most of world oil is owned by gov’t-controlled oil companies (~80%)

8. The world is NOT running out of hydrocarbon energy

9. Unconventional Oil Has Large(r) Environmental Costs including carbon and other emissions (externalities)

10. Oil resources unevenly distributed

11. Demand is inelastic and prices are erratic

4

Snapshot of US Petroleum Use

• Transportation consumes 28% of U.S. energy• Transportation is 93% fueled by oil in the U.S• Transportation uses 67% of U.S. oil• U.S. oil consumption is 18.8 million barrels/day

(~22% of world consumption)• U.S. oil consumption is 55% imported (declining)

So what’s the problem?

Sources: Davis, Diegel, Boundy (2012). Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 31. USEIA (March 2012). Monthly Energy Review

Problems of Petroleum Dependence

• Economic– We depend on a resource for which our domestic supply is limited– Transfer of wealth ($200-400 bill/yr) from U.S. to foreign countries– Oil price shocks have wider impacts on the economy– Estimated cost to US economy is $2Trillion from 2005-2010 (Greene)

• Geopolitics– Most world petroleum is held by government-controlled oil companies (~80%)– Many oil-producing countries can be politically unstable, undemocratic– Some are using petro-dollars for politically disruptive purposes (especially in

Venezuela, Iran) – Military expenditures for defending oil supplies– High oil costs are especially disruptive to poorer countries

• Environmental– Environmental externalities from petroleum combustion including local pollution and

climate change– Unconventional oil options produce higher CO2 emissions and have other large

environmental costs

Near exclusive dependence on oil means transition to alternatives is likely to be challenging

October 28, 2008 6

Pres. Bush’s 2006 State of the Union

“America is addicted to oil … The best way to break this addiction is through technology ... We must … change how we power our automobiles. We will increase our research in better batteries for hybrid and electric cars, and in pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen. We'll also fund additional research in cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not just from corn, but from wood chips and stalks, or switch grass.” (Applause.)

Energy Independence?

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-june-16-2010/an-energy-independent-future

8Source: Greene, “Low Carbon Transportation”, ARB Chairs Lecture, 2012

The Real Problem

9Source: Greene, “Low Carbon Transportation”, ARB Chairs Lecture, 2012

What does oil dependence cost?

1. Loss of potential GDP = producers’ & consumers’ surplus losses in oil markets (dynamic).

2. Dislocation losses of GDP due to oil price shocks. 3. Transfer of wealth due to monopoly pricing and price

shocks (requires counterfactual competitive price).Estimate - $2Trillion from 2005-2012

10Source: Greene, “Low Carbon Transportation”, ARB Chairs Lecture, 2012

October 28, 2008 11

On Alternatives to Oil…

“ The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil”

– Sheikh Zaki Yamani

1970s and ’80s Saudi Arabian oil minister

Which vehicle/fuel alternative will win?

Fuel Cell?

Electric?Biofuel?

Other?Nat. Gas /Bio-methane?

Hybrid/PHEV?

“Energy Carrier” ADHD*• 30 years ago – Synfuels (oil shale, coal)• 25 years ago – Methanol• 18 years ago – Electricity (Battery EVs)• 8 years ago – Hydrogen (Fuel cells)• 4 years ago – Ethanol/Biofuels • Today – Electricity again

(EV+PHEV)• Next year ?

*Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD): ADHD is a problem with inattentiveness, over-activity, impulsivity, or a combination of these. (Source: US National Library for Medicine)

14

Hydrogen

Biofuels

Plug-in’s

FCV

EVs

Many Possible Policy Approaches and Many Possible Low Carbon Fuels

15

Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

There are many complex paths by which we can get diverse primary energy sources on-board our vehicles.

Primary energy sources

Coal

Petroleum

Natural gas

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Nuclear

Agricultural crops

Waste

Energy carriers, fuels for transportation

Coal-to-liquid

Gasoline

Diesel

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)

Compressed natural gas (CNG)

Liquefied natural gas (LNG)

Electricity

Hydrogen

Ethanol

Biodiesel

Biobutanol

Vehicle Technologies

Gasoline combustion

Diesel combustion

Hybrid gasoline-electric

Flex-fuel ethanol-gasoline

Flex-fuel biodiesel-diesel

Plug-in hybrid electric

LPG/LNG

CNG

Electric

Hydrogen combustion

Hydrogen fuel cell

Alternative Fuels and Vehicles

There are many complex paths by which we can get diverse primary energy sources on-board our vehicles.

Primary energy sources

Coal

Petroleum

Natural gas

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Nuclear

Agricultural crops

Waste

Energy carriers, fuels for transportation

Coal-to-liquid

Gasoline

Diesel

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)

Compressed natural gas (CNG)

Liquefied natural gas (LNG)

Electricity

Hydrogen

Ethanol

Biodiesel

Biobutanol

Vehicle Technologies

Gasoline combustion

Diesel combustion

Hybrid gasoline-electric

Flex-fuel ethanol-gasoline

Flex-fuel biodiesel-diesel

Plug-in hybrid electric

LPG/LNG

CNG

Electric

Hydrogen combustion

Hydrogen fuel cell

Fossil-based fuels

Versatile energy carriersBiofuels

17

Many Ways of Producing Biofuels - production pathways

18

Many ways of producing hydrogen (and electricity)

Source: Sperling and Gordon, 2009

HYDROGEN

Electrolysis of water

BioHydrogen

Coal Gasification

Natural Gas Steam

Reformation

Biomass Gasification

Solar

Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuels

Landfills

Nuclear

Wood Chips Agricultural Waste

Leafy Plants

Coal

Algae

Wind Methanol

Fossil Fuel Reformation

Farm Ethanol

Tar Sands

Vehicles to Utilize Alternative fuels

GM’s Volt (Plug-in Hybrid)

Honda FCX Clarity (hydrogen fuel cell)

Volkswagen Jetta (Diesel)

Toyota Prius (Hybrid gas-electric, plug-in)

Tesla Roadster (electric)

Honda Civic GX CNGBMW Hydrogen 7

Evaluation Criteria

• Costs• Safety• Local pollution• GHGs• Performance• “Utility”• Availability of energy distribution infrastructure• Energy supply

Fuel Considerations (performance and utility)

• Critical alternative fuel considerations– Chemical, physical, and

energy characteristics– Refueling time– Availability of

inexpensive primary energy sources

Fuel or energy carrier

Mass energy density (MJ/kg)

Volume energy density (MJ/L)

State (at STP)

Gasoline 46 34 Liquid

Diesel 46 37 Liquid

Ethanol 30 24 Liquid

E85 33 26 Liquid

Biodiesel 42 33 Liquid

Natural gas (3600 psi) 50 10 Gas

LPG propane 50 25 Liquid

Hydrogen (5000 psi) 143 5.6 Gas

Electric (PB-acid) 0.09-0.11 0.14-0.17 Solid

Electric (NiMH) 0.22 0.36 Solid

Electric (Lithium-ion) 0.54-0.72 0.9-1.9 Solid

Properties of fuels and energy carriers

Estimated Gasoline-Equivalent Costs of Alternative Liquid Fuels

2-14

Cost of alternatives (fuels/vehicle)

23Source: USDOE, 2011

Infrastructure

• Potential infrastructure issues:– Primary resource

location– Fuel properties– Distribution system:

pipeline, freight, etc– Refueling stations

• Minimize problems with city-by-city approach

Fuel or energy carrier Stations

Gasoline ~121,446

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) 2,652

Ethanol (E85) 2,544

Compressed natural gas (CNG) 1,091

Biodiesel (B20 or greater) 679

Electricity 12,761

Hydrogen 58

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) 58

Number of fueling stations in the U.S., 2012

Sources: US DOE, updated 08/25/2012.http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/fuels/stations_counts.html

US Census (2012).

Diesel Vehicles

• Current status: Fuel widely available

Limited light-duty vehicle options ~10 models

Volkswagen, BMW, Jeep, Mercedes

• Requirements– Fuel: Widely available– Vehicle: Compression ignition engine, exhaust treatment

• Costs– Fuel: Approximately same as gasoline– Vehicle: Can be expensive: $1000 to $4000 more per

vehicle

• Issues/bonuses: Getting diesel emissions as low as gasoline

Better performance

• Energy impacts: 15-30% energy/petrol reduction due to efficiency

• Air Quality impacts: Can be even with gasoline

(with more expensive exhaust treatment)

• GHG impact: 15-30% reduction

Volkswagen Jetta

Mercedes-Benz BLUETEC

CNG Vehicles

• Current status: Natural gas is widely available (but not as CNG)

Very limited light-duty vehicle options (1 model)

Honda Civic GX NGV

• Requirements– Fuel: Must be in pressurized (3600 psi) form– Vehicle: Fuel storage tank, engine, fuel system

• Costs– Fuel: Natural gas is ~50% cheaper per energy unit– Vehicle: Can be expensive: $5,000+ more per vehicle

• Issues/bonuses: Cleaner: Lower emission control cost

• Energy impacts: ~100% reduction in petroleum use

Roughly same energy use as conventional vehicle

• Air Quality impacts: 60-90% reductions of NOx, HC, CO, PM (for trucks)

• GHG impact: 20-25% reduction

Methane (a GHG…) leakage is an issue

Honda Civic GX NGV

Ethanol Vehicles

• Current status: Widely available – all vehicles are E10-capable

Millions of “flex-fuel” vehicle are E85-capable

10% of U.S. motor vehicle fuel in 2012*

• Requirements– Fuel: Cheap agricultural feedstock (like corn)

– Vehicle: Up to E10 – none; E85 - minor modifications

• Costs– Fuel: Can be cheaper than gasoline (depending on world oil price)

– Vehicle: E10 - free; E85 - minor (<$400/vehicle)

• Issues: Sources: Cellulosic, “Advanced,” “Second Generation” biofuels

Indirect impacts: land use effect due to cropland expansion

• Energy impacts: Reductions in overall energy use:

10-20% reduction per gallon displaced (corn-derived)

50-80% reduction per gallon displaced (sugarcane-derived)

70-90% reduction per gallon displaced (cellulosic/waste-derived)

• Air Quality impacts: Modest HC, NMOG, NOx reductions

• GHG impact: 10-20% reduction to 100%+ increase (corn-derived)

70-90% reduction to 50%+ increase (cellulosic/waste-derived)

*Source: Renewable Fuels Association (2012). Accelerating Industry Innovation – 2012 Ethanol Industry Outlook.

Biodiesel Vehicles

• Current status: Limited by low numbers of diesel vehicles (~10 models)

All diesel vehicles are B20-capable

Total biodiesel production is <500 million gallon/yr

Straight vegetable oil (SVO) requires vehicle modifications

• Requirements– Fuel: Cheap agricultural feedstock (waste oils, virgin oils (soy))

– Vehicle: Up to B20 – none; E85 - minor modifications

• Costs– Fuel: Can be cheaper than diesel (depending on world oil price)

– Vehicle: B20 - free; >B20 - minor modifications; SVO

• Issues: Sources: Crop- vs. Waste-derived (greases, animal fats)

Indirect impacts: land use effect due to cropland expansion

• Energy impacts: 50-80% reduction in energy use per gallon diesel displaced

• Air Quality impacts: Modest HC, NMOG, PM reductions; mixed NOx results

• GHG impact: 50-80% reduction to 100%+ increase with land use effects

Volkswagen (Diesel, B20-capable)

Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles• Current status: Chevy Volt first ‘large production’ plug-in hybrid ( approx

1,000/month)

Toyota Prius plus introduce in March 2012

Others coming in 2012/2013

• Requirements– Fuel: Recharging stations (home, work, other)

– Vehicle: Energy-dense inexpensive battery pack (Lithium Ion?)

• Costs– Fuel: Electricity is cheaper (>50%) per energy unit than

petroleum

– Vehicle: Incremental cost $5,000 to $10,000 per vehicle (?)

• Issues: How many miles will be on grid electricity?

Where does electricity come from?

Battery technology (Lithium-Ion?) and cost

• Energy impacts: ~20-40% reduction (if never uses grid electricity)

~35-60% reduction (if commonly uses grid electricity)

• Air Quality impacts: Small reduction (if never use grid electricity)

Major reductions in local (on-vehicle) emissions

• GHG impact: 20-60% reduction (depending on use of grid electricity)

GM Volt (PHEV40, 2010)

Toyota Prius (retrofit plug-in hybrid)

Saturn Vue (PHEV10, 2010)

Electric Vehicles• Current status: Here in small numbers: neighborhood vehicles

Nissan Leaf first 'large production' vehicles (~1,000/month).  Other small volume production include (for example): Tesla Roadster, Model S; Fisker;

Toyota Rav4, Honda Fit EV, Ford Focus EV

• Requirements– Fuel: Recharging stations (home, work, other)

– Vehicle: Energy-dense, inexpensive battery pack (Lithium Ion?)

• Costs– Fuel: Electricity is cheaper (>80%) per energy unit than

petroleum

– Vehicle: Premium of greater than $10,000 per full-size vehicle…

Smaller neighborhood vehicles (~$10k GEM)

• Issues: Where does electricity come from?

Battery technology (Lithium-Ion?) and cost

Refueling time of several hours

• Energy impacts: Vehicles far more efficient (~75% vs. ~20%)

100% petroleum reduction

~30-60% overall energy reduction (depends on elec. sources…)

• Air Quality impacts: ~Zero local (on-vehicle) emissions

Can offer major reductions in overall emissions

• GHG impact: ~30-60% reduction (depending on energy sources)

Tesla Roadster (2008/9)

Smart EV (2010)

GEM (2008)

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Hydrogen: an energy carrier that can be derived from many sources

Fuel cell: an electrochemical device which converts chemical energy to useful electrical work

H2 + O2 H2O + Energy

Fuel cell (PEM)

Source: Dana Corporation

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle

Fuel cell stack Compressed hydrogen storage

H2 Fuel Cell Vehicles• Current status: Prototype/Demonstration phase: (100s of vehicles being tested)

Vehicles in showrooms 2014-2016 including

from Toyota, Hyundai, Daimler, GM

Assuming adequate infrastructure exists

~60 hydrogen (H2) stations in the U.S.

• Requirements– Fuel: Strategic infrastructure development

– Vehicle: Inexpensive fuel cell stack, hydrogen storage

• Costs– Fuel: Can be cheaper than gasoline (only at high world oil price)

– Vehicle: Very high for current small volume ($10k/month for UCD lease!)

• Issues: Where hydrogen comes (it is a versatile energy carrier)

Fuel cell vehicle costs (platinum, hydrogen storage)

• Energy impacts: ~0% reduction (coal as energy source)

~50% reduction (distributed natural gas-reformation)

~90% reduction (renewable primary energy source)

• Air Quality impacts: ~Zero local (on-vehicle) emissions

Major reductions in overall emissions (if coal not energy source)

• GHG impact: 50-90% reduction (depending on energy source)

Honda FCX Clarity (hydrogen fuel cell)

Evaluation Criteria

• Costs• Safety• Local pollution

• GHGs (life cycle)• Performance• “Utility”• Availability of energy distribution infrastructure• Energy supply

Miscellaneous

• My office hours (esp concerning paper #2)– Today 3:15-4:30– TH 3:15-4:45

• Paper #2 due next tues• Guest speakers TH (NRDC and oil

company)

October 28, 2008 34

Fuel Lifecycle – Gasoline

73 g/MJ

Vehicle

Gasoline 96 gCO2-

eq/MJ

Transportation

7 g/MJ

Oil Well

1 g/MJ

14 g/MJ

Refinery

1 g/MJ

Transportation

Fuel Lifecycle – Corn Ethanol

Corn Ethanol 65-105 gCO2-eq/MJ

Vehicles

Emissionsare

Offset

Corn Field

36 g/MJ

2 g/MJ

Transportation

30 g/MJ

Co-products

3 g/MJ

Blend with gasoline

Bio-Refinery

38 g/MJ

-12 g/MJ

Transportation

Land Use Change

Biofuel Impacts

• What are the processes that created the biofuel?

Clear land for farming

Harvest, mill crop

Ferment, distillation

Transport

Source: Based on Wang (2007), GREET

• Alternative fuels must be assessed on a life-cycle basis:– Systems approach– Upstream emissions– Upstream energy– Varying results, depending on

feedstock and process…

Sugarcane

Corn

GHG Emissions of Alt Fuels

Various advanced vehicle technologies have the potential to reduce life-cycle vehicle GHG emission by 23-66% by 2030.

Source: Adapted from Bandivadekar et al, 2007.

0

100

200

300

Current

gaso

line

Diese

l

Efficien

t gas

oline

Hybrid

gas-

electr

ic

E85* (

corn

etha

nol)

E85* (

cellu

losic,

crop

)

E85 (c

ellulo

sic, r

esidue)

Plug-in

hybr

id

Vehicle technology

Lif

e-cy

cle

gre

enh

ou

se g

as

emis

sio

ns

(g C

O2/k

m)

Vehicle cycle Fuel upstream Vehicle energy use

23% 26%

41%

29%

41% 43%

66%

Major Alternative Fuel Policies in US• American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

– Supported alternative fuels and vehicle technologies (grants, tax credits, research and development, fleet funding, etc)

• Renewable Fuel Standard (Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007)– Blending subsidies: Ethanol $0.51/gal, Biodiesel $0.50-1.00/gal.– Mandate for 35 billion gallon of biofuels in transportation fuels by 2022

• Vehicle purchasing– Tax deductions for EVs and PHEVs

• State and local programs– Biofuel mandates in many U.S. states (E10, B2, B5)– California’s Zero Emission Vehicle mandate

(electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells, plug-in hybrids)

– California’s Low-Carbon Fuel Standard

• Volumetric mandates– e.g. US Renewable Fuel Standard

• Fuel subsidies – eg, corn ethanol and biodiesel

• Market instruments– carbon taxes or cap and trade

• Low carbon fuel standard

40

Hydrogen

Biofuels

Plug-in’s

FCV

EVs

Many Possible Policy Approaches and Many Possible Low Carbon Fuels

RFS (national)

• Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandates the use of 35 billion gallon of biofuels in U.S. transportation fuels by 2022

RFS Details [new slide]

• Imposed on oil companies• Only targets biofuels• GHG emissions of corn etoh must be 20+%

better than gasoline (including ILUC, but only for “new” plants)

• GHG emissions of cellulosic must be 50+% better than gasoline

• EPA can give waivers for cellulosic fuels if they are not available (and have done so)

42

What is LCFSPerformance based: GHG intensity target for transport fuels

Lifecycle measurement for “carbon intensity”Regulated parties are transport energy suppliers (oil providers, plus others who want to earn credits, such as biofuel, electricity, NG and H2 providers)All transport fuels are includedHarnesses market forces: Allows trading of credits among fuel suppliers, which stimulates investment and continuing innovation in low-carbon fuels

i

n

ii

i

n

ii

EERE

CIE

AFCI

)eq/MJ-gCO2(

Total GHG emission

Total transportation fuels produced/displaced

43

California LCFS Program

Adopted April 2009, took effect Jan 2010Applies to on-road transport fuels

Excludes air and maritime (where California has limited authority)Separate targets for gasoline and diesel (10% reduction for each)

Allows trading between these two targetsDefault measurements and opt-in procedure for each activity in energy chain

Encourages further innovation and investment in low-carbon practicesRefinements still in progress

Rules on “sustainability”Lifecycle calculations for additional energy paths

44

LCFS is Spreading (updated)

EU moving toward an LCFS; its “Fuel Quality Directive” is very similar to California LCFS (amended Dec 2008)

11 northeastern and mid-Atlantic states signed a MOU in January 2009 committing to cooperate in developing a regional LCFS

Early version of Waxman-Markey climate bill contained an LCFSOne proposal for combining LCFS and RFS

0% target until 2022 for LCFS: Would operate parallel to RFS until 2022If fully implemented, RFS would reduce GHG intensity by 4.6% in 2022

In 2023, LCFS and RFS rolled together, with 5% GHG-intensity reduction targetIn 2030, target would increase to 10%

45

Key Challenges of an Expanded LCFS

1) Indirect land use change

2) Leakage and shuffling

3) Energy security

4) Environmental and social sustainability

46

Challenge 1. Indirect Land Use Change

When lands with rich soil and biomass carbon deposits are initially converted to agricultural production, a large amount of carbon is emitted. Massive consumption of biofuels in the U.S. leads to expansion of cultivated land area in and outside of the US (to replace diverted ag production)

These iLUC effects cannot be directly observed or easily measured

47

Magnitude of ILUC (initial CARB Estimates)

48

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Gas

oli

ne

(CaR

FG

)

Ult

ra lo

w s

ulf

ur

die

sel

(UL

SD

)

Co

mp

ress

ed N

atu

ral G

as

(CN

G)

Eth

ano

l -co

nv

enti

on

al

corn

Eth

ano

l -lo

w-C

co

rn

Eth

ano

l -ce

llu

losi

c

Eth

ano

l -su

garc

ane

So

yb

ean

Was

te d

eriv

ed

Ele

ctri

city

Cal

ifo

rnia

av

erag

e

Hy

dro

gen

nat

ura

l gas

re

form

ing

Bio

-met

han

e

Veh

icle

eff

icie

ncy

ad

just

ed f

uel

ca

rbo

n in

ten

sity

(g

CO

2e/

MJ)

Direct GHG emission Indirect GHG emission

10% below the current average fuel GHG intensity

Error bars represent range of direct lifecycle emissions using different technologies, feedstocks, and energy sources. Uncertainty of iLUC emissions are not shown, but are much larger than uncertainties of direct emissions.

Issues with iLUCHow to handle this scientific uncertainty?? If we ignore it, we are assigning a value of zero, which we know is incorrect. Controversial because this is first time a carbon value has been assigned to land use changes

Next: beef and agriculture??Corn ethanol interests are opposed to iLUC because it makes corn ethanol less attractive. Scientific uncertainty gives opponents (such as oil refiners) an excuse to oppose it (for reasons other than self interest)Better ways to handle iLUC?

Challenge 2. Leakage and Shuffling

Concern: Regulated parties export high-carbon fuels to non-LCFS countries

Canada exports oil sands to China instead of using in US/CanadaIowa sends high-carbon ethanol to CanadaThus, no net benefit?

Questions for discussion:How likely are these concerns to occur? What are the magnitude of the impacts? What if carbon policies are implemented in EU and Canada?Is concern for leakage and shuffling a legitimate reason for doing nothing?

50

Challenge 3. Energy Security

LCFS responds to climate goals (by reducing GHGs), but more mixed effect on energy security

Encourages use of alt fuels and thus increases energy securityBut also discourages production of fuels from oil sands, heavy oil, oil shale, and coal

How to adjust LCFS to be responsive to energy security?Reduce target Other?

Note 1: LCFS does not ban oil sands (which has ~15% higher GHGs on lifecycle basis than gasoline from oil).

Note 2: LCFS encourages more efficient production of oil sands, and use of lower carbon process energy (nuclear energy? CCS?)

51

52

Challenge 4. “Sustainability” of Fuels

Many environmental and social impacts:Food vs fuel: increased demand for SOME biofuels puts pressure on food prices Water: many fuel processes use large amounts of waterEncourages use of land including forests and “degraded lands”?

Encourages deforestation, harms indigenous people (in Asia, Brazil)

Many (especially the EU, NGOs, and industry groups) are working on “sustainability standards”

1/12/2009 52

Integration with National RFS?

Phase out RFS and replace with LCFS (as proposed in early Waxman-Markey bill), but do it sooner than 2023Convert assigned GHG requirements for each RFS fuel category into LCFS format

53

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

AF

CI (

gC

O2e

/MJ)

Bill

ion

Gal

lon

s

National Renewable Fuel Standard Requirement

Conventional biofuel Cellulosic biofuel Biomass based biodiesel

Other advanced biofuel AFCI

Equivalent to LCFS target of 5% reduction by 2022

My piggy bank after I bought gasoline this morning...

LCFS SummaryLCFS appears to be most effective policy for orchestrating transition to low carbon fuels

Includes all fuels and is fuel neutralPerformance standard Relies on market forcesDurable framework for reducing long-term GHG emissions for transport

Transforming US RFS into a federal LCFS would provide additional flexibility and incentives for innovation LCFS adopted in California before opposing political interests were fully marshalledPolitical opposition is strong

discomfort with iLUC (and makes it more difficult to meet targets)some conflicts with energy security, corn ethanol companies and oil refiners don’t like itEnviros concerned about “sustainability” impacts

55

Conclusions

• Many associated problems with the prevailing petroleum-based transportation system:– Economic costs– Environmental costs

• Alternative fuel vehicle technologies offer…– Promising solutions in terms of reductions in air quality emissions,

greenhouse emissions, petroleum use, overall energy use– Trade-offs in vehicle and fuel attributes (vehicle cost, fuel cost, vehicle

performance, consumer acceptability, resource availability, driving range, refueling station availability)

• Policies to orchestrate the transition are controversial. LCFS is best policy option?

It won’t be easy!!

Extra slides

October 28, 2008 57

58

Difficulty of Transitioning to most promising alternative fuels

Sperling and Gordon, 2009

Proved Reserves

October 28, 2008 59Source: Greene, “Low Carbon Transportation”, ARB Chairs Lecture, 2012