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8/11/2019 11 SE Core Applied to Risk
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ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
Key Element of Systems
Engineering Risk (and Uncertainty)[An Introduction]
ALIX MINDENSEPTEMBER 28, 2013
8/11/2019 11 SE Core Applied to Risk
2/24
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)[An Introduction]
Agenda
Concept of Risk (and Uncertainty) Risk Management Process (Theoretical) Applying the Core Four to Risk Management Risk Management Process (Practical) Applicable Risk Tools Applicable Industries & Examples Summary
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)[An Introduction]
Concept of Risk (and Uncertainty) Overview
What is Uncertainty? Unpredictability; indeterminacy; indefiniteness. 1 What is Risk?
The likelihood of an event occurring coupled with a neconsequence of the event occurring. 2
Why is risk important to Systems Engineering? Risk means system requirements may not be achieved.
SE focuses on risk to help achieve system requirements.
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)[An Introduction]
Risk Management Process Overview of the Theoretical Process
There are many different approaches. The primary difference is the terminology. Each approach utilizes the core four skills:
Definition / Planning
Synthesis / Design Implementation / Coordination / Communication
We will focus on the INCOSE approach. No popular approach is really better than the others.
Analysis
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)[An Introduction]
Concept of Risk (and Uncertainty) SE Risk Management Process Steps (1 of 2)
Plan the risks. Define and document (D&D) the risk strategy. Manage the risks.
D&D risk thresholds, and acceptable and unacceptableconditions. Communicate risks periodically.
Analyze the risks. Identify risks, their likelihoods and consequences, and
treatment plan for each.
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)[An Introduction]
Concept of Risk (and Uncertainty) SE Risk Management Process Steps (2 of 2)
Treat the risks. Generate plan of action for each risk exceeding acceptlevels.
Monitor the risks. Maintain record of risk items, how they are treated, an
communicate status regularly. Evaluate the risks.
Define, analyze, and document measures indicating staof risk and the effectiveness of treatment alternatives.
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Applying the Core Four, Definition Risk Planning
Two focus areas of Risk Planning? Identifying and understand the categories of risks. Cost Schedule Technical Plus, Programmatic (risks beyond the span of control of the
Establishing the Risk Management Plan. The documented strategy that will be used to manage the ris
Document the plan and communicate it with the te
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Risk Planning Risk Category Example 5
All risks fall into oneof these fourcategories.
The diagram depicts
how they interactionwith each other.
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Applying the Core Four, Analysis Risk Analysis & Management
Two focus areas of Risk Analysis & Management? Categorizing and quantifying the risks. Identify the risk categories being track for the system. Identify thresholds for probability of occurrence (P O) an
consequence of failure (C f ).
Risk evaluation technique / identifying each risk. Identify each potential risk. Identify its category and priority levels (based on P O an Identify who will monitor the risk.
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Risk Analysis & Management Categorization Example 6
Risk Level = P O * C P O & Cf are assigned
between 0 and 1. The consequences als
equate to an impact v Example:
PO = 0.8 & Cf = ~$1 Risk Level = 0.8 * 0.6 Therefore Risk Level
1.0 = $1M
0.8 = $500K
0.6 = $100K
0.4 = $10K
0.2 = $1K
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Applying the Core Four, Synthesis Treatment of Risks
Primary approaches to Treating Risks? Acceptance Accept and do nothing. (a.k.a. ignore it.)
Avoidance Change something (requirements or redesign) to eliminate it
Control Spend time or money to mitigate it.
Transfer Have someone else deal with it.
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Applying the Core Four, ImplementationMonitoring, Evaluation, & Tracking of Ris
Two focus areas of Monitoring & Tracking of Risk Establishing, monitoring and reporting risk metrics. Do this at all levels of the system.
Tracking and periodic reevaluation of risks. Feedback loops Regular meeting.
Details to keep in mind. If a risk is not identified, it will not be managed! Always identify and document the GR&As!!!
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Risk Management Process Overview of the Practical Process
There are always unknown risks. Keep this in m Not all risks will have impacts to all four categorie Risks should be identified using the approach: If (name the situation ) occurs, then ( name the
consequence ) happens. For example: If the part is delivered late, there wil
a day for day slip in the system delivery, costingcompany $15,000 each day.
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Applicable Tools 7
ARMs Risk Management Software. IBM Open Pages Risk Register EPRI Risk and Reliability Workstation, for nuclea
power plants. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-On Integrat
Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE)
h f l ll h dh f l ll h d
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Applicable Industries / Examples
Finance and Banking Stock Markets Nuclear Power Transportation Homeland Security Aerospace
C i h 2013 Lif l M I i LLC All Ri h R dC i h 2013 Lif l M I i LLC All Ri h R d
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Which of the following is NOT a type of rissystems engineering?
Schedule. Product. Technical. Programmatic.
C i ht 2013 Lif l M t I ti LLC All Ri ht R dC i ht 2013 Lif l M t I ti LLC All Ri ht R d
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Final Thoughts about Risk 8
As both complexity and change continue toescalate in our products, services, and society,reducing the risk associated with new systems modifications to complex systems continues to be primary goal of the systems engineer .
C ight 2013 Lif l M g t I ti LLC All Right R dC ight 2013 Lif l M g t I ti LLC All Right R d
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Summary
What are the risk steps? Plan the risks. Manage the risks. Analyze the risks.
Primary approaches to Treating Risks? Acceptance Avoidance
SE focuses on risks to help achieve the requiremen
Treat the risks. Monitor the risks. Evaluate the risks.
Control Transfer
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
SYSM 6303 (OPRE 6301) QuantitativeIntroduction to Risk and Uncertainty in Busin
Introduction to statistical and probabilistic methodsapplicable to situations faced by managers. Topics includdata presentation and summarization, regression anafundamental probability theory and random variablesintroductory decision analysis , estimation, confidencintervals , hypothesis testing, and One Way ANOVA (Somsections of this class may require a laptop computer). (3-
Prerequisites: none
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
SYSM 6304 (OPRE 6335) Risk and Decis Analysis
This course provides an overview of the main concepts amethods of risk assessment , risk management andanalysis . The methods used in industry, such as prorisk assessment, Six Sigma and reliability , are discus
Advanced methods from economics and finance (deoptimization and portfolio analysis) are presented. (3-0)
Prerequisites: SYSM 6303 or OPRE 6301
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
SOURCENOTES
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Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Source Notes (1 of 2)1. Dictionary.com. (Retrieved 26 September 2013).
http://dictionar y.reference.com/browse/uncertainty?s=t2. INCOSE SE Working Group. Description. Chap. 5 In Systems Engineerin
Handbook , 216-217. Version 3.2.2. 2011.3. INCOSE SE Working Group. Process Activities. Chap. 5 In Systems En
Handbook , 218-220. Version 3.2.2. 2011.4. See note 3.
5. INCOSE SE Working Group. Figure 5-10, Typical Relationship among the RiCategories. Chap. 5 In Systems Engineering Handbook , 222. Version 3.6. INCOSE SE Working Group. Figure 5-9, Level of risk depends upon both like
and consequences. Chap. 5 In Systems Engineering Handbook , 221. V2011.
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http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/uncertainty?s=thttp://dictionary.reference.com/browse/uncertainty?s=thttp://dictionary.reference.com/browse/uncertainty?s=t8/11/2019 11 SE Core Applied to Risk
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ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201310/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENTThe University of Texas at Dallas
Fall 201309/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
[An Introduction]
Source Notes (2 of 2)7. Wikipedia.org. (Retrieved 26 September 2013).
http://en.wiki pedia.org/wiki/Risk_management_tools8. SE Working Group. Use of Systems Engineering. Chap. 2 In Systems E
Handbook , 14-17. Version 3.2.2. 2011.
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ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Fall 2013
10/12/2013 SYSM 6301,
Copyright 2013, Lifecycle Management Innovations, LLC, All Rights Reserved
ERIK JONSSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCENAVEEN JINDAL SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT Fall 2013
09/28/2013
SYSM 6301, Key Element of SystemsEngineering Risk (and Uncertainty)
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