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11 March 2003
Poland: Nominal and real convergence to the EMU
Arkadiusz Krześniak
tel. +(48 22) 579 9105
Section 1
External Environment
3
Global recovery expected in 2004
GDP and inflation forecasts of the Deutsche BankNo inflation pressures in 2003 .
GDP growth Inflation
2001 2002F 2003F 2004F 2001 2002 2003F 2004F
Euroland 1.4 0.7 1.2 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.7Germany 0.6 0.2 0.6 3.0 2.4 1.3 1.0 1.0France 1.8 0.9 1.2 2.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.4Italy 1.8 0.4 1.1 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.1
UK 2.0 1.6 2.5 3.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.4
US 0.3 2.3 2.8 3.8 2.8 1.6 1.6 1.9
Japan -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5
Russia 5.0 4.2 3.7 3.6 18.6 15.1 12.0 10.3
Poland 1.0 1.3 2.6 4.0 3.6 0.8 1.5 2.3
Section 2
Determinants of Poland’s economic performance
5
Real interest rates in Poland declined but are still high...
Real interest rates in Poland, Germany and USAHigh interest rate differential is the
main determinant of the macro-
economic situation of Poland
(besides relatively lax fiscal policy)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1/31/96 9/30/96 5/31/97 1/31/98 9/30/98 5/31/99 1/31/00 9/30/00 5/31/01 1/31/02
Poland Germany USA
6
Interest rate differential does not impact the USD/PLN much
PLN
7
Interest rate differential has some impact on the EUR/PLN
PLN
8
PLN to firm on structural factors, reduced uncertainty, successful EU referendum, and interest rate differential
PLN
-4%
1%
6%
11%
16%
4/11/00 8/4/00 11/24/00 3/19/01 7/12/01 10/31/01 2/25/02 6/19/02 10/8/02 1/31/03
PLN deviation from parity (reversed)
9
East European currencies tend to appreciate in long-term due to productivity gains (Samuelson-Balassa effect)
10
PLN will be additionally firmed by transfers from the EU in the 2004-2006.
Industrial production and GDP
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
2000 2001 2002 2003F 2004F 2005F 2006F
USD m
Unclassifiedflows
Transfers
Net transfers fromEU
Income
Services balance
Trade balance
Current Account
Section 3
Nominal convergence
12
Interest rate differentials will be declining at a slow pace in 2003-2004
PLN
13
Policy interest rate in Poland is coverging to that of euro-zone
PLN
14
Inflation in Poland is lower than in Germany!
Polish and German inflation
15
And is still falling...
Polish and German inflation
16
Why did Polish CPI decline by over 1000 bp in 2 years?
Determinants of inflation
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
199901
199905
199909
200001
200005
200009
200101
200105
200109
200201
200205
200209
%
10
15
20
25
30
35
USD/b
CPI YoY (lhs)
Food and non-alcohol beverages prices YoY (lhs)
PLN index (Jan 1999=0, up means appreciation) (lhs)
Crude Oil (Brent) (rhs)
17
Why will it continue to be low?
Determinants of inflation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
031999
081999
012000
062000
112000
042001
092001
022002
072002
%CPI Net inf lation E(CPI)
18
PLN yield curve is normalising but still has negative slope
Slopes of Polish and German yield curves
19
Real effective exchange rate in Poland is appreciating
Real Effective Exchange Rates
20
Full convergence has not yet taken place in Poland.
Slopes of Polish and German yield curves
Section 4
Real convergence
22
Business cycles in Poland and Germany are well correlated.
Slopes of Polish and German yield curves
23
Labour productivity growth in Poland is higher than in Germany
Slopes of Polish and German yield curves
24
But unemployment rate is much higher...
Slopes of Polish and German yield curves
25
Unpleasant unemployment arithmetic(unemployment growth = change in productivity – GDP growth)
Slopes of Polish and German yield curves
26
Poland and UE – real convergence (1)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
31/03/199530/06/199630/09/199731/12/199831/03/200030/06/2001
YoY% German GDP YoY Polish GDP YoY
27
Poland and UE – real convergence (2)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Ger
man
y
Spa
in
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Net
herla
nds
Sw
eden
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Pol
and
Ave
rage
DI PPCS DI Euro GDP PPS GDP Euro
Personal disposable income (DI) and GDP per capita – nominal and real
28
Maastricht criteria
29
Poland – exchange rate and interest rate forecasts
EUR/PLN USD/PLN CHF/PLN GBP/PLN EUR/USDWIBOR
3MEURIBOR
3MLIBOR
USD 3MCPI
(Poland)(end of period)
Mar-03 4.251 3.900 2.889 6.182 1.090 6.00 2.30 1.30 0.3Apr-03 4.240 3.890 2.881 6.166 1.090 6.00 2.30 1.30 0.2May-03 4.238 3.870 2.888 6.146 1.095 5.75 2.30 1.25 0.5Jun-03 4.202 3.820 2.872 6.074 1.100 5.70 2.30 1.25 1.0Jul-03 4.199 3.800 2.868 6.042 1.105 5.50 2.30 1.25 1.2Aug-03 4.185 3.770 2.856 5.994 1.110 5.50 2.30 1.75 1.3Sep-03 4.159 3.700 2.803 5.883 1.124 5.50 2.30 1.75 1.2Oct-03 4.086 3.600 2.738 5.760 1.135 5.50 2.30 2.25 1.1Nov-03 3.990 3.500 2.672 5.635 1.140 5.20 2.60 2.25 1.5Dec-03 3.950 3.450 2.654 5.589 1.145 5.20 2.60 2.25 1.5Jan-04 3.933 3.420 2.631 5.575 1.150 5.20 2.60 2.50 1.6Feb-04 3.922 3.410 2.623 5.575 1.150 5.00 2.60 2.50 1.7Mar-04 3.910 3.400 2.615 5.576 1.150 5.00 2.60 2.50 1.8