11 June 2004WWRP/NWG-COST 722 Joint Session WWRP Nowcasting Working Group Contributors: T. Keenan (BMRC), Stéphane Sénési (Météo -France), Shingo Yamada

11 June 2004 WWRP/NWG-COST 722Joint Session

WWRP Nowcasting Working Group

Contributors: T. Keenan (BMRC), Stéphane Sénési (Météo -France), Shingo Yamada (JMA), Jim Wilson (NCAR), Paul Joe (MSC), Jarmo Koistinen (FMI), Peter Li (HKO), Augusto Pereira (USP), Andrew Crook (NCAR), Chris Collier (U. Salford) and Isztar Zawadzki (McGill

U.)

• Background• Objectives• Overall Strategy• Work plan


•Propose a plan for promoting and advancing nowcasting within the WWRP. •An outcome of the 6th WWRP SSC recommendation

Definition: Follow that provided by Conway (1998): nowcasting is forecasting with local detail, by any method, over a period from the present to a few hours ahead; this includes a detailed description of the present weather.

Nowcasting is now expanded to include the blending of extrapolation techniques, statistical techniques, heuristic[1] techniques and numerical weather prediction (NWP).

In the foreseeable future it is most likely that it will be possible to make deterministic and probabilistic nowcasts for end-users of the 0-6h time period with sufficient time and space specificity to effectively mitigate losses or enhance benefits.

[1] Heuristic is defined as forecast rules based on such things as experiment, numerical simulation, theory, expert systems, fuzzy logic and forecaster rules of thumb.

Background


•A review of conferences and research efforts indicates there is a relative lack of international focus on nowcasting programs•Lack of coordinated research with established verification and optimization of information interchange between researchers, forecasters and end-users. •Limiting the transfer of nowcasting capabilities to the operational sphere. •Improvement in nowcasting services has significant social and economic benefits. •WWRP Role?. •Include research into basic understanding, defining of limits of predictability, a collaborative and systematic approach to the nowcasting process, interaction with the user base, and relevant social impact studies.

The objectives of the proposed WWRP Nowcasting Working Group (NWG) are: •To advance the science of nowcasting, including meteorology processes and predictability.

• To promote, and aid the implementation of nowcasting in the WWRP framework and within National Meteorological Services and their end users.


Forecast rules e.q boundary collisionstorm initiation likely

Data Fusion System

Extrapolation Statistical Radar retrievals

Convergence lineDetection & characterization

Model derived forecastfields

NWP

Forecaster Input e.q. convergence line Input, meteorologicalsituation

Nowcast

Forecast Rules

Courtesy, Jim Wilson NCAR


Important nowcasting applications and end uses include: •Transport weather including aviation, rail and road •Emergency Services including Law and Order Agencies•Hydrology•Agriculture industry• Construction Industry• Recreational Activities•Power industry•Local authorities monitoring air pollution• Air quality and particle dispersion•Homeland security


Aviation Impact of Convective Weather

Courtesy, Jim Wilson NCAR


Stages of disaster prevention activities and relevant weather information

disaster (Flood/Landslide)

1 hour before

3-6 hours before

evacuation

Nowcast (Anal) >warning

VSRF (Anal+NWP) >caution

Met. Information

1-2 days before

SRF(NWP) >Outlook

Local Government

Citizen

Stand byReady to take action

preparation

Action for recovery

Cancel warning

Back to normal (recovery)

Action for disaster prevention

Precip. Intensity

Keep in mind

Is the skill of our forecast fulfilling their needs?

Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA


•Promote nowcasting science (RDP), transfer of technology and science through Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDP) and assist in the development of nowcast test beds. •Organization of international nowcasting conferences and specialist symposia, training workshops and collaboration with WMO and CBS •Inter comparison and systematic testing of these algorithms on common and representative databases (including consideration of extreme and high impact events) would provide valuable assessment and help define optimal paths for development. •A tendency exists within National Meteorological Services (NMS’s) to develop nowcasting capabilities in isolation


Symposia

•No major international conference with a specific nowcasting focus since the 1984 Nowcasting 2 Symposium in Norrkoping, Sweden. •Nowcasting science and applications are scattered in sessions of related theme conferences •Initial major conference aimed at

(1) a review of the science and recommendations on the way to advance the science, and (2) plans for a series of symposia concentrating on the specific science and system issues and the way they can be incorporated into RDP, FDP and testbed activities.

•Possible Technical Symposia•Analysis and conceptual models•Nowcasting algorithms•Blending NWP with other techniques•Consistent time integration of nowcast and other forecast products•Quality assurance for nowcasting data•Alerting, nowcast production systems, dissemination processes and systems and end user interface•Man-machine interfaces and the role of a meteorologist in the nowcasting process

•Verification and validation


Nowcasting RDP Potential Science Issues for RDPs •Use of high resolution NWP models for nowcasting•Value adding to NWP (analysis/forecasts) for nowcasting, including merging techniques for combining extrapolation and NWP forecasts.•Limits of nowcasting predictability•Nowcasting extreme events (rain, wind, lightning….)•Initiation, maintenance and prediction of convection. Heavy precipitation, monsoon rainfall, nocturnal convection •Microphysical and dynamical processes important in low cloud, fog, icing, and mixed phase precipitation•Development and propagation of snow bands •Air quality and dispersion modelling


Potential System and Forecast Process Issues for RDPs •Integrated observing system development with observational error characterization•Representation of weather in objects. To define characteristics of weather elements and as a basis for the exchange of weather information. Examples are the representation of information from cell detection, tracking, growth and decay algorithms, and the exchange of such information with other applications, and NWP e.g., SIGOONS(Sig. Wea. Object-Oriented Nowcasting System)/OPIC (Object for Con. Nowcasting) approaches used at Meteo France•Heuristic methods, such as statistical models, conceptual models, including data mining and artificial intelligence and fuzzy logic methods.•Human interfaces which display and enable interaction with information observations, analyzed fields, extracted objects and NWP outputs. Required in a unified manner that allows timely implementation of man-machine procedures for field and forecast modification.•Information integration from multiple sources e.g., examination and intercomparison of techniques used in AWIPS/GFE (USA), SYNERGIE (France), and NINJO systems•End-to-End


The European COST projects provide opportunities for developing RDPs•COST Action 717 is examining the use of radar observations in hydrological and NWP models. A related activity is EU Framework V Project CARPE DIEM. •COST Action 722 is concentrating on fog and low cloud forecasting(physical and statistical) with verification.•COST Action 728 will address measuring and forecasting atmospheric icing on structures

•US nocturnal convection is a major forecasting problem that has received little attention.

It is possible that this could be developed into a WWRP RDP as part of USWRP efforts.


Nowcasting FDP FDP’s focused on the following seem possible: - •Convective weather. This was the focus for S2000 but potential also exists in the USA with NASA/NWS SPORT project. • Hydrology is considered another potential target for an FDP. An FDP should be planned over a specified river basin to demonstrate the river management organizations benefits to use precipitation nowcasts in the course of flood control and water resource management.• Air quality monitoring and prediction. Would make use of latest observational techniques, NWP and dispersion models.• Aviation weather with emphasis on terminal area applications. Specific user with well defined costs structure related to convection, wind shifts, visibility, fog and low cloud, winter Icing and snow forecasting.• Road weather• Satellite and other non-radar based techniques for convective nowcasting systems


The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games is presently the best candidate for a new FDP. It will be the first FDP with formal involvement of the NWG. Other opportunities that should be explored are: •Flash flood awareness and civil design in association with the RISK-EOS (ESA R&D framework) project . Includes users, France and Italy.

•NWC SAF (Eumetsat) system. To demonstrate utility of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite based nowcasting projects. e.g., but RDT automatic monitoring of convection form MSG (tracking and characterisation) extended to include end-users


Test beds

•Test beds aimed at accelerating science and system issues in an end-to-end setting involving developers, nowcasters and end-users. •The WWRP test bed is essentially an international focus for activities encompassing both RDP and FDP philosophies. • Given the range of nowcast issues and varying climatic regimes it is expected test beds will have a regional or national focus but with a theme of international significance•Test beds should make use of existing opportunities in various countries that have a particular focus, interest and infrastructure to support long-term research and operational testing on nowcasting techniques•High quality observational networks covering the areas where the meteorological phenomena occur with high probability and established end-users


Candidate test bed sites include:

A. Huntsville Alabama (NWS/NASA SPORT) for convective weather;B. Linking with the short range precipitation prediction initiative of the

NWS HPCC. Toronto and Montreal (EC/McGill) framework for convective and

winter weather, including WSDDM and AVISA/AIRS for icing; D. Brisbane, Australia (Bureau of Meteorology) for subtropical

convection and hydrological activities.


North Alabama NowcastingShort-term Forecasting Test Bed

Courtesy, S. Goodman, NASA



Information exchange

•NWG should consider publishing a guide "Global Guide to Nowcasting" which will be a useful reference to nowcasters/system developers worldwide. •Website which facilitates exchange of knowledge and experience on nowcasting among NMSs

Nowcasting Fellowship

•WMO/ESCAPE Typhoon Committee has established a Research fellowship scheme to enable scientists of various NMS’s to visit other groups to undertake tropical cyclone research. •Establishment of a similar nowcasting research fellowship focused on young scientists


Work Plan and Timetable

Establish NWG -2004.

Conferences and Workshops 1. Brazil 2003 Training Workshop 2. Nowcasting Science and Technical Conference (1st half

2005)3. System Developer Workshop (2005)? 4. Asian 2006 Workshop?

WWRP NWG Web Site (2004)?

Develop Test Bed /RDP Facility (2005-2006)

Documents

11 June 2004WWRP/NWG-COST 722 Joint Session WWRP Nowcasting Working Group Contributors: T. Keenan (BMRC), Stéphane Sénési (Météo -France), Shingo Yamada