Introduction 1

1.1 CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

usage refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using

statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and

that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any

change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of

human activity. This usage differs from that in the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate

that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition

of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability

observed over comparable time periods.

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (2007) dispelled many uncertainties about climate change. Warming of the

climate system is now unequivocal. It is now clear that global warming is mostly

due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases (mostly Carbon dioxide). Over the

last century, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increased from a pre-

industrial value of 278 parts per million to 379 parts per million in 2005, and the

average global temperature rose by 0.74°C. According to scientists, this is the

largest and fastest warming trend that they have been able to discern in the history of

the Earth. An increasing rate of warming has particularly taken place over the last 25

years, and 11 of the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the past 12 years.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report gives detailed projections

for the 21st century and these show that global warming will continue and

Introduction 2

accelerate. The best estimates indicate that the Earth could warm by 3°C by 2100.

The major impacts and threats of climate change will be widespread.

As a result of global warming, the type, frequency and intensity of extreme

events, such as tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons), floods,

droughts and heavy precipitation events, are expected to rise even with relatively

small average temperature increases. Changes in some types of extreme events have

already been observed, for example, increases in the frequency and intensity of heat

waves and heavy precipitation events.

Ultimately, it will have effects on socio-economic and related sectors,

including water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial

ecosystems and biodiversity and coastal zones. Changes in rainfall pattern are likely

to lead to severe water shortages and/or flooding. Melting of glaciers can cause

flooding and soil erosion. Rising temperatures will cause shifts in crop growing

seasons which affects food security and changes in the distribution of disease

vectors putting more people at risk from diseases such as malaria and dengue fever.

THEORIES OF CLIMATIC CHANGE

The role of insolation is fundamental in weather and climatic processes.

Hence most climate change theories deal with possible effects of alterations in the

earth‘s energy budget.

The simplest theory states that any change in the kind and amount of energy

emitted from the sun causes changes. Increased solar radiation warms the atmosphere

and resulted in events such as the glacial melting.

Introduction 3

Some theories based on a examining the number of sunspots during more

than two centuries reveals their cycle of about 11.3 years, but the period has been as

short as 9 years and as long as 16. Multiples of the 11-year cycle and secondary

cycles having lengths of 35 years, 80 years and other periods have also been

suggested. Based on these some correlations between sunspot numbers and weather

have been established for specific regions only. Changes in the heat budget, the

general circulation and precipitation patterns on the earth can be seen because of the

combined effect of sunspot activity and sun‘s rotation and the solar wind. Paleo-

climatologists have found correlations between earth magnetism and climatic

changes, especially those associated with ice ages and the extinction of species in

the fossil record as the earth‘s magnetic field is known to be affected by the

emissions of charged protons by solar flares during maximum sunspot periods.

There can be other possible causes of changeable insolation even if the

output from the sun is considered constant. ―Astronomical theories consider five

principal effects.

1. Changes in the angle which the earth makes with the plane of the ecliptic.

The tilt angle varies slowly between 22.1o and 24.5

o during a cycle of about

41,000 years, presumably affecting the seasons, temperature distribution and

the general circulation.

2. Changes in the eccentricity of the earth‘s orbit-period 96,000 years.

Resulting variations in the mean distance from earth to sun could affect

temperatures on earth.

3. Precession of the equinoxes, the regular change in the time when the earth is

a given distance from the sun. At present the earth is closest to the sun in the

Introduction 4

Northern Hemisphere winter (about 3 January). About 10,500 years ago the

Northern Hemisphere winter came at a time of year when the earth was

farthest from the sun. Other things being equal (which they never are),

winters should have been colder and summers warmer than they are now. In

the Southern Hemisphere the reverse applies.

4. Shifting of the earth on its polar axis. This hypothesis, suggested by Robert

Hooke in 1686 to explain tropical fossils in England, has been abandoned by

most climatologists in favor of theories based on plate tectonics and

continental drift, which also could account for apparent ‗polar wandering‘.

5. Changes in the rate of the earth‘s rotation on its axis, affecting the diurnal

heat budget and ultimately world climates‖ (Critchfield, 2012).

Insolation gets affected by the processes of absorption, reflection and

scattering in the outer limits of the atmosphere. Its possible causes are known to be

showers of meteoric dust and time to time increase of volcanic ash. Ash layers in

Antarctic ice show a period of intense volcanic activity from about 30,000 to 17,000

year ago, during which temperatures decreased by about 3oC. In the modern era the

eruption of Mount Tambora on the Indonesian Island of Sumbawa in 1815 ejected

an estimated 150 km3 of ash into the atmosphere. The following year was known as

‗the year without a summer‘ in the United States and Europe. Massive eruptions of

other volcanoes in the twentieth century (Katmai, 1912; Agung, 1963; Taal, 1965;

Mayon and Fernandina, 1968) force ash into the stratosphere. Measurements and

estimates of direct solar radiation indicate a reduction by 10 to 20 percent for several

months following the Katmai eruption and an accompanying decrease of a few

Introduction 5

tenths of a degree in mean air temperatures. Effects of such eruptions are felt in local

climates deeply but their global climatic impacts were undetectable.

Impact of culture too can be felt on climate change, as pollution created by

cities and industries, burning of vegetation along with the solid particles resulting

from wind erosion contribute in local climatic changes.

Carbon dioxide and water vapor selectively absorb part of the long wave

terrestrial radiation and a greenhouse effect is created by transmitting short-wave

radiation. An increase of CO2 is thought to produce slightly higher surface

temperatures and it has been proposed as a cause of the warming trend from about

1885 to 1940. Variations in the amount and height of maximum ozone concentration

in the upper atmosphere might also affect air temperatures (Critchfield, 2012).

During volcanic eruptions Sulphur dioxide and chlorine are also emitted which can

react chemically and reduce ozone. Hence, their increase would lead to a small rise

in surface temperatures; a decrease would tend to produce surface cooling.

Continental drift during past geologic eras witnessed land masses shifting to

different latitudinal positions. Geophysicists since the middle of the twentieth

century support crustal movements as explanations of climatic change by giving

refined plate tectonics theory.

The changes in the heat budget or changes in the circulation patterns of the

atmosphere and oceans etc can be regarded as causes of climatic change but they

cannot be solely held responsible for it. As any change in these motion systems are

themselves subject to climatic effects.

Introduction 6

INDIAN SCENARIO

India will also be severely impacted by climate change as the Indian economic

ties to natural resources and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and

forestry. India may face a major threat and require serious adaptive capacity to

combat climate change. Many studies have underscored the nation‘s vulnerability to

climate change. With changes in key climate variables, namely temperature,

precipitation and humidity, crucial sectors like agriculture and rural development are

likely to be affected in a major way. Impacts are already being seen in unprecedented

heat waves, cyclones, floods, salinisation of the coastline and effects on agriculture,

fisheries and health.

The future impacts of climate change, identified by the Government of

India‘s National Communications in 2004 include:

Decreased snow cover, affecting snow-fed and glacial systems such as the

Ganges and Bramhaputra. 70% of the summer flow of the Ganges comes

from melt water

Erratic monsoon with serious effects on rain-fed agriculture, peninsular

rivers, water and power supply

Drop in wheat production by 4-5 million tones, with even a 1ºC rise in

temperature

Rising sea levels causing displacement along one of the most densely

populated coastlines in the world, threatened freshwater sources and

mangrove ecosystems

Increased frequency and intensity of floods. Increased vulnerability of people

in coastal, arid and semi-arid zones of the country

Introduction 7

Studies indicate that over 50% of India‘s forests are likely to experience shift

in forest types, adversely impacting associated biodiversity, regional climate

dynamics as well as livelihoods based on forest products.

Vulnerability to extreme events would affect arid and semi-arid zones, of

which nearly two-thirds are drought-prone. Large areas in Rajasthan, Andhra

Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra and comparatively small areas in

Karnataka, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, West Bengal, and

Uttar Pradesh are frequented by drought. About 40 million hectares of land is

flood-prone, including most of the river basins in the north and the north-

eastern belt affecting about 30 million people on an average each year.

The climate change predicted in the Third Assessment Report of

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001, says that the warming will be

higher during the winters as compared to the summer season. Its predictions of

climate change in South Asia are given in Table-1.

Table 1- Predictions of Climate Change in South Asia

Parameters

2020s 2050s 2080s

Annual Winter Summer Annual Winter Summer Annual Winter Summer

Temperature

Change (0C)

1.36 1.62 1.13 2.69 3.25 2.19 3.84 4.52 3.20

Precipitation

Change (%) 2.9 2.7 2.5 6.8 -2.1 6.6 11.0 5.3 7.9

Source: Third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001

Introduction 8

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES

Although the climate change debate is often centered on temperature, water

is what will determine whether a community (a village, city, or region) or ecosystem

can survive. Water is the medium through which climate change impacts are being

felt and will be experienced. Climate change will ultimately come down to changes in

water timing (when water is delivered – seasonality, monsoon, etc.), quantity (how

much water is available – floods and droughts), and quality (how well the water is

suited for consumption or use). That means that water has become an important

potential platform upon which to shape sustainable climate change solutions.

Water managers, farmers, and other stakeholders are used to dealing with

seasonal and yearly variation, but climate change will shift weather and water

patterns with greater frequency and to greater extremes. Future situations will be

substantially less manageable and less predictable, exacerbating underlying stresses

and presenting new risks. Increased drought and flood recurrence and duration, higher

variability of precipitation patterns, increased cyclone intensity, changing trends in

snowpack and generally accelerating rates of glacier melt will be experienced.

This alteration (shifts in timing and averages) and intensification (increasing

number and severity of extreme events) of the hydrological cycle will change

seasonality and water temperatures and alterations in precipitation patterns will

affect water quality. Dissolved oxygen levels, concentration of pollutants and levels

of toxic algae and sedimentation will all change, which mean impacts on aquatic

species that will not only have health and sustenance implications but also economic

consequences.

Introduction 9

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CONTEXT OF RAJASTHAN

Rajasthan is the largest state in the country, covers about 3, 42,000 square

kilometers area, and is further divided into 33 districts, see Map-1. It stretches in two

of India's major physiographic divisions, namely the Great Plains (Indian Desert)

and the Central Highlands. The Aravalli range of hills intersects the state diagonally

from southwest to northeast, extending right up to Delhi. While the area east of the

Aravalli falls in the northern part of the Central Highlands. The Aravalli forms the

Watershed line between catchment streams flowing into Arabian Sea and Bay of

Bengal respectively. It has a steep but discontinuous front to the Thar plains in the

west and a relatively gentle slope to the alluvial basins in the north and the east. The

central part of Aravalli consist of an important basin of interior drainage is gifted

with Sambhar lake. This area is full of sand hills and typical landscape with several

low depressions.

The climate of Rajasthan on the west of the Aravalli like other desert and semi-

desert regions, gets rapidly heated during the day and cool down quickly after dusk,

variations of as much as 220C is noted in the maximum and minimum temperature. In

the east and south of Aravallis there is considerable variation in the temperature and

amount of rainfall. Climatically, Rajasthan is the driest State in the country.

Rainfall is the only source of water in the State, which is received from south

west monsoon which usually arrives by the middle of June and continues with

intervening breaks till almost September end. The annual rainfall varies from less

than 100 mm to 1000 mm. As one moves from southwest to northeast, the rainfall

goes on decreasing. It is highest on the Aravalli near Mr. Abu where it exceeds 1000

Introduction 10

MAP - 1

Introduction 11

millimeter. The average rainfall in north-western parts of Jaisalmer district ranges

between 1 to 100 millimeter while in Banswara, Chittorgarh and Jhalawar districts it

varies between 901 to 1000 millimeter The state has about 528 millimeter average

rainfall. Except for the Chambal, the 13 other rivers of the state are non-perennial.

CLIMATIC VULNERABILITY

Vulnerability in the context of Climate Change is defined as, ―the degree to

which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of

climate change, including climate variability and extremes.‖

In the context of Rajasthan, nearly 61% of the geographical area falls under

arid/ semi arid zone. The entire State receives scanty rainfall. Thar Desert in western

Rajasthan is characterized by low and erratic rainfall, high air and soil temperature,

intense solar radiation and high wind velocity. Context-specific interactions of these

factors give rise to frequent droughts and famines.

Various studies show that Rajasthan is likely to suffer further water shortage

due to overall reduction in rainfall. In addition, the State has the maximum

vulnerability and lowest adaptive capacity to climate change challenges. Rajasthan

has the maximum probability of occurrence of drought. Condition may deteriorate in

terms of severity of droughts in Rajasthan. Even 1% increase in temperature from

base data could result in an increase in evapo-transpiration. All the more, the quality

and quantity of ground water and surface water resources in Rajasthan has

deteriorated rapidly in last two decades.

Introduction 12

Changes in the climate will have profound effect on hydrological cycle viz.

precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. Preliminary assessments as part

of the Second National Communication (NATCOM) of India to be submitted to the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) indicates

that river Luni along with the west flowing rivers Kutch and Saurastra are likely to

face acute water stress conditions, while the river basins of Mahi and Sabarmati are

likely to experience constant water shortage.

Other vulnerability issue is widespread land degradation which is a persistent

challenge in Rajasthan. The processes leading to land degradation are generally

triggered by increasing demand for food from the growing population, which results

in over exploitation of natural resources. Human activities such as firewood cutting in

rural areas and around main cities, deforestation for commercial use, urbanization and

industrialization, over taxed rangeland carrying capacity and overgrazing by ever-

expanding herds, cultivation in ecologically marginal areas and agricultural, low level

of agricultural technology, reduced fallow time etc., lead to various land degradation

process, including increasing soil degradation through salinisation, flooding, drought

water logging etc. These processes in turn reduce agricultural productivity.

With changes in climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation,

increased incidence of droughts and intensification of water scarce conditions could

impact agricultural production drastically. The state is primarily rain-fed; with bulk

of rainfall (nearly 90%) being received during the monsoon season which is for a

short period and often witnesses a late onset and early withdrawal as compared to

other states. The state of Rajasthan faces many pressures that directly impact the

agricultural sector like high population growth rate, increased use of fertilizers due

Introduction 13

to increased production demand, increased pressure on canals, wells and tube wells

for irrigation, etc.

Hence the impacts will be most felt on the vulnerable and poor sections of

the society, therefore vulnerability assessment and adaptation measures must be

taken up in the climate sensitive socio-economic sectors like water and agriculture.

ADAPTATION STRATEGY

Adaptation is a process through which societies make themselves more able

to cope with an uncertain future. Adapting to climate change entails taking the right

measures to reduce the negative effects of climate change (or exploit the positive

ones) by making the appropriate adjustments and changes. There are many options

and opportunities to adapt ranging from technological options such as rainwater

harvesting, drought management, Integrated Water Resources Management strategy

Options to enhance water availability by combining new infrastructure with other

supply-oriented measures such as desalination, re-use and water marketing, Artificial

recharge of groundwater along with policy to regulate groundwater utilization etc.

are also feasible options.

Similarly, specific areas of intervention in the field of agriculture may include

improvement in agro-extension services, crop insurance, improvement in reclamation

of saline/alkaline soils and efficient irrigation practices. Some long-term adaptations

include changes in sowing dates, crop type and cropping pattern depending on the

agro-climatic conditions to improve crop yields under new climatic conditions,

application of new technologies, new land management techniques and water use

efficiency related techniques including judicious use of water for different crops etc.

Introduction 14

1.2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE

The review covers books, research articles, reports and popular articles on

the research topic. The main topics covered in the review are: Climate Change,

Vulnerability, Adaptation and Extreme Events.

CLIMATE CHANGE

In his article Rao (1996) identified three locations viz., Ganganagar, Bikaner

and Jaisalmer located along the irrigated tract of the Indira Gandhi Canal to assess

the impact of irrigation in the arid Rajasthan which is seen from the micro-climatic

and vegetation changes that occurred it this region due to the long term climatic

changes. Here the trends in annual rainfall (during 1926 to 1993) and air temperatures

(during 1950 to 1993) are used for analysis. The findings suggest that climatic

droughts prevailed in Ganganagar once in every five years, at Bikaner once in every

three years and at Jaisalmer once in every four years. The annual rainfall‘s trend

showed an overall increase in Ganganagar, decrease in Bikaner and same trend in

Jaisalmer. The air temperatures at all the three locations showed a general decreasing

trend. It is also observed that the amount of canal water that is applied can influence

atmospheric humidity, but it is not known how far this humidity can enhance

precipitation.

In a report by Easterling et al. (2004) the concepts of vulnerability and

adaptation in the context of climate change is explained. It illustrates selected

successes and failures of reactive adaptation to analogous changes in environmental

or socioeconomic conditions, and it explores the challenges and potential benefits of

deliberately stoking the nation‘s adaptive capacity with proactive policies in

Introduction 15

anticipation of climate change. The report also sites a few case studies relating to

Crop Translocation of Winter Wheat in the United States; Resource Substitution in

Response to Scarcity by Dry land for Irrigated Agriculture in the Great Plains and

Sea Level Rise Analogue showing The Rising Great Salt Lake. The case study of

translocation of crops demonstrates that the agricultural sector can expand the range

of certain crops to include climates that are as different as the levels of climate

change projected to occur over the next few decades. The Great Plains example

shows that adaptations can happen in response to resources becoming limited. The

Great Salt Lake example shows that society can, to some degree, address immediate

and vital problems brought about by a changing climate.

The report also suggests the methods of reactive and proactive adaptation

techniques. It concludes that adaptation and mitigation are necessary and

complementary for a comprehensive and coordinated strategy that addresses the

problem of global climate change but the regions and people will suffer some losses

which are unavoidable.

Similarly, an article by Kumar (2004) presents a detailed analysis of the

association of agricultural output with monsoon rainfall where two indicators of El

Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Sea Surface temperatures

(SST) are measured. The study considers aggregate food grains, cereals, pulses and

oilseeds, rice, wheat, sorghum, groundnut and sugarcane by season at national and

for particular regions within India. The study uses all-India and state-level agricultural

statistics (area, production and yield) available from 1949–50 to 1997–98 for

individual crops (rice, wheat, sorghum, groundnut, oilseeds and sugarcane) and for

Introduction 16

combined cereals, pulses and food grains. The rainfall pattern data from 1871 to

1991 was studied. In the findings we see the kharif growing season coincides with

the south-west monsoon therefore here the correlation between monsoon and crops

is particularly strong. While analyzing crop-climate association on a regional scale

we see that since production varies from one region to another within India, we used

monsoon rainfall data from meteorological subdivisions to study local scale climate

influences on crop production — kharif food grains, kharif and rabi rice, total wheat,

kharif sorghum, and kharif groundnut production — in individual states. Crops

grown in both the (kharif ) monsoon (except sorghum) and the (rabi) post-monsoon

seasons (except rice and sorghum) respond significantly to the summer monsoon All

the kharif crops except sorghum are strongly associated with ENSO conditions.

However, none of the rabi crop indices showed this relationship the significant

correlations with the Indian Ocean SST anomalies suggest that kharif crop production

indices (except sorghum) have some predictability at a long lead time. Although rabi

groundnut, oilseed and sorghum production indices are related to the Indian Ocean

SST anomalies, such a relationship for annual total production is evident only for

rice, groundnut, oilseeds and food grains.

The results of this study provide evidence that crop response to monsoon

rainfall has some predictability, even before the start of the growing season. This

type of analysis, at a finer spatial scale, could provide useful information for

targeting interventions.

Burroughs (2005) in his book studies climate with anthropological,

archeological and historical perspective. The chapters - ‗The Climate Of The Past

Introduction 17

100000 Years‘, ‗The Evolutionary Implications Of Living With The Ice Age‘,

‗Emerging From The Ice Age‘ ‗Our Climatic Inheritance‘ and ‗The Future‘ are

especially useful. They reviews the aspects of our physiological, intellectual

development and social behavior that have been influenced by climatic factors and

how the features of our lives- diet, health and relation with the nature are the product

of the climate that evolved. The book looks into the past only to gain knowledge for

the future; how man can learn to adapt effectively by changing some of his habits.

Effect of climate on human history can be seen as the book is supported by very

scientifically analysed data. The author also suggests that how IPCC predictions can

be set against what happened during the last ice-age and in the Holocene and in

particular when the climate shifted radically in between those two periods.

A paper by Gupta (2005) projects the future emission scenario of India

highlighting the extent of India‘s vulnerability to climate change and also critically

analyses the initiatives undertaken in India to mitigate greenhouse gas emission. The

author expresses concern that India is vulnerable to climate change impacts, as a

vast population depends on climate sensitive sectors like agriculture, forestry and

fishery for livelihood and increase in the events of flood and drought would pose a

threat to food-security and livelihood. The paper mentions agriculture and food

security, forestry, coastal areas and human health as the areas of concern. Domestic

efforts to mitigate green house gas emissions can be done in the fields of Pollution

Control, Energy Conservation and Energy Efficiency; Forestry; by institutionalizing

climate change research; regulating population growth and urban agglomeration;

promotion of renewable sources of energy; participating in the global declarations.

Introduction 18

The author suggests that India should be alert, active and assertive in its global

participation and enhance its adaptive capacity.

Rathore et al. (2006) in an article mention the observations that have been

made since the beginning of 21st century, reporting that changes have been observed

in surface temperature, rainfall, evaporation and extreme events, global mean sea

level has risen etc. these observations have been made in India as well. The writers

stress that warmer climates accelerated the hydrological cycle, which ultimately

affect the groundwater level negatively. The paper attempts to study the possible

impacts of climate change on surface and groundwater resources in India. It studies

the relation between rainfall, food production, population and freshwater needs.

Rivers, snow, ice and glaciers have been while talking about the surface water

resources. Impacts of events of flood and drought too have taken into consideration

while studying the surface water resources. It is mentioned that the ground water has

been exploited unmindfully and has become the main provider to meet the rising

need in the domestic, industrial and agricultural sectors, hence it is declining rapidly.

Projections have been made regarding climate change during the next century

over India and the impact they would have on water resources. It has also been

discussed that ground water management in India has become an important point

now but it is still in a very initial stage. The paper advocates that there should be an

increase in the studies on changing climatic patterns which impact the hydrological

cycle and which are leading to depletion of water resources.

Adger et al. (2009) considered that the previous analysis about adaptation

have been done from a narrow stand point predominantly- ecological, physical,

Introduction 19

economic or technical. Here they have articulated four prepositions around ethics,

knowledge, risk and culture as these will open up the limits of adaptation to climate

change. These limits are endogenous and emerge from ‗inside‘ the society.

These four prepositions are evaluated by four statements and it is suggested

that these elements inherit in any society contribute to limiting the successful

adaptive response of society. The role of ethics can have both a positive impact;

greater knowledge of future impact and the risk it can pose leads to early adaptation;

undervaluing of cultures limits the range of adaptation actions. The ability to adapt

depends on availability of technology, capacity of learning and their ethical and

cultural backgrounds.

Helm (2009) divided his book in twenty-two chapters contributed by various

authors. The chapters cover various topics like climate change policy: why so little

has been achieved?; The global deal on climate change; Climate treaties and the

imperatives of enforcement; The implications of rapid development for emission and

climate change mitigation; The behavioural economics of climate change; climate

change and Africa; India and climate change mitigation; EU climate change policy:

a Critique; climate change mitigation from renewable energy: its contribution and

cost; The global climate change regime : a defense. The book examines the economies

of climate change and the incentives of the main players i.e. United States of

America, China and European Union and considers the policies that governments can

put in place to reduce greenhouse gas emission and ultimately shift our economies

onto a low-carbon path. It looks into the international framework for a climate

change agreement which is up for review as the initial Kyoto Protocol comes to an

Introduction 20

end in 2012. In this regards itself it also deals how there is much enthusiasm from

political and environmental groups but the underlying economics and politics remain

highly controversial.

The book by Kumar (2009) focuses on two aspects of global environmental

change: Groundwater and depletion of stratospheric ozone. It has chapters dealing

with the concept of Global Warming, its causes; Relation of climate change and

groundwater; Population Growth; Current Sea Level Rise; Environmental Pollution

and ground water; Protection of Ozone Layer; and, Greenhouse effect. Out of these

the chapter highlighting the relation of climate change and Ground water is crucial.

The author in the chapter points out to the importance of glaciers as an important

indicator of climate change. Glacial erosional features, landforms products and

deposits, and types of glaciers, formation of glacial ice, changes in glacier size and

movement of glaciers have been used as an indicator. The author includes effect of

carbon dioxide, plate tectonics, solar variation, orbital variations, volcanism, human

influences, fossil fuels, aerosols, cement manufacture, land use and livestock as an

indicator of climate change. The author indicates that interplay of the above factors

is very crucial. The book also highlights that modification of climate change event

can be done through geo-engineering techniques like - Solar radiation management

by albedo modification, green house gases remediation by carbon sequestration and

hydrological geo-engineering.

The paper by Billett (2010) investigates the role of Indian media in shaping

the opinion of the public regarding the environmental issue of climate change. The

investigation done for the study is based on the coverage through main articles only

Introduction 21

excluding opinion and editorial pieces on the climate change issue between January

2002 and June 2007 in the four major English dalies, namely The times of India, The

Hindu, Hindustan Times and The Indian Express; which present climate change in a

very scientific framework as compared to western nations. The methodology followed

a discourse analysis and used the outputs of the Indian discourse i.e. the journalists,

editors and free-lance writers. Here, four main climate change themes were used:

‗science‘, ‗impacts‘, ‗responsibility‘, ‗action‘.

It is pointed out that the general belief in media is that the anthropogenic

causes of the problem are only the industrial elite and also highlights the North-

South Divide. The press also placed the responsibility and demand for action, having

located the threats of climate change within the country. Here, the study revealed that

on the issue of ‗Climate Politics‘ most of the readers believe that the problem was ‗a

mess created by developed countries‘. But still India sees climate change as its

responsibility.

Reddy (2009) in his book deals with an array of issues relating to energy

efficiency, development and environment. Some of the chapters are- Climate debate;

Win-win climate policy; Fundamentals of energy efficiency; The benefits and

drawbacks of energy efficiency; Commercializing clean energy technologies; Financing

energy efficiency in transition economies; The role of institutions in promoting

energy efficiency. The chapter dealing with Climate debate gives a brief history of

the policies related to changing climate; it also presents the two views about climate

change. One believing that climate issue is a hoax inflated by media and nothing

special is required to be done. Whereas the other believes that there is enough

Introduction 22

evidence to prove that CC is happening in the world and majorly caused due to

anthropogenic activities. The expansion of scientific knowledge is unlikely to end

the debate as each side will get more data to confirm their cases. Regardless of which

side is right the points raised by both are valuable. The real problem is not scientific

controversy but the way in which science is used by economic and political interests

and the risk of scientists becoming a pawn in a high stake political game. The

chapter - Win-win Climate Policy discusses that in 1992 UNFCCC encouraged the

use of cost effective mechanism for tackling climate change. This principle was

reaffirmed by the Kyoto Protocol. The economic win-win is achieved when a

problem is mitigated at negative net economic cost, thus leading to a win for

problem solving and a win for the economy.

The book provides a view on integrating climate policies with development

priorities. Given the uncertainties about the cost of reducing green house gas the best

way to proceed may be through the introduction of more flexibility into international

trading programs for carbon credits.

The book by Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) Working

Group (2009) is a report that looks if there are any security implications of climate

change for India. The Working Group finds out that climate change is a non-traditional

security threat as its impact on human security is immense. Climate change can lead

to loss in biodiversity, breakdown of ecosystems which will have a direct negative

impact on human society which is tightly linked with national security. The chapters

include climate change and Security: Exploring the link; Key Vulnerabilities due to

climate change; climate change and Disasters; Climate change and Migration; Energy

Introduction 23

and climate change; Economics and Adaptation to climate change; Impact on India‘s

Bilateral Relations with neighbouring countries; Impact on war-fighting capability

of the Indian Military; Climate change: India‘s Negotiating position. Three chapters

in particular relate to my research topic namely, Key Vulnerabilities due to Climate

Change, Climate Change and Disasters and Economics and Adaptation to Climate

Change. The chapters analyze the observed changes in the climate and projected

Climate Change in Indian context and the potential risks and sectoral impacts on

India could face in the next few decades. They suggest that natural disasters are

increasing in terms of frequency, intensity, scope and destructive capacity. These

disasters are linked to Climate Change through short term natural variability,

manifesting in extreme weather conditions such cyclones, storms, floods, droughts,

heat waves, wind storms, and other natural hazards for potential for catastrophic loss

of human lives, damage to infrastructure and environment. This chapter analyses the

impact of Climate Change on the risk of natural hazards in India and proposes

preparedness strategies and emergent policy imperatives. The book also sets up a link

between Climate Change, human security and vulnerability. The chapter establishes

a close relationship between Climate Change and socio-economic concerns for

development. It concludes that climate policy and international negotiations require

a governance framework that is under pinned by the rationale that populations in the

developing world will need to move up the energy ladder in improving basic

standards of living.

The book concludes that the consequences of climate change for a developing

country like India will be serious under any scenario and human security will be

affected. India should use climate change as an opportunity to make socio-economic

Introduction 24

development more sustainable. For the same The National Action Plan of climate

change is considered a good beginning, but its time-bound implementation needs to

be ensured.

The report by Singh et al. (2010) of Rajasthan State Pollution Control Board

highlights the fact that Rajasthan is a climate sensitive state, having maximum

vulnerability and lowest adaptive capacity. Due to this reason the adaptation strategies

here become inevitable. There is an emphasis on the science-based policy making.

The report mentions policies relating to water, dry lands, forests, agro-forestry, urban-

forests, dune restoration, biodiversity and mine-spoil management in Rajasthan.

A brief review of the available literature and an annotated bibliography of

published research on climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation are

provided in order to facilitate the identification of policy options in Rajasthan.

ADAPTATION

Gowd et al. (1998) in the article presented a systematic study conducted of

the various landforms and geomorphic units that have been carried out in the

Peddavanka watershed area comprising a catchment area of 298 sq. km. in the

Anantapur district of Andra Pradesh. Hydro-geomorphology and lineament studies

have been carried in the region. Related maps are prepared based on the visual

interpretation of the satellite data of IRS-1B and LISS-II on 1:50,000 scale.

The authors suggest that such maps prepared with the use of satellite imagery

are very useful in identifying favorable zones for groundwater. Such hydro-

geomorphologic maps revels that the shallow groundwater occurrences are controlled

Introduction 25

by geo-morphological features whereas faults/fractures control the yield of

groundwater at intermediate depth.

Noss (2001) talks about forest management on which the Kyoto Protocol is

silent on and argues that if we study how forests address climate change and other

stresses under natural conditions then even we might be able to maintain, restore or

mimic these processes of adjustments. Sometimes the changes become progressively

faster, more intense, or broader in extent that a global mass extinction becomes

probable. The Conservationists have to keep the rates, scales, and intensities of

change in ecosystems within the historic range of variability and they must also

develop strategies to mitigate the effects of inevitable changes that fall outside the

historic range of variability.

Minimizing extinction during climate change requires that species be given

opportunities to adapt. Migration appears to have been the primary way species

responded to past climate changes but some species may adapt to climate change by

in situ evolution. The author identifies that climate change is not the only threat to

forests but adds one more layer of stress to species and ecosystems already suffering

from poor land-use practices. To protect forests from the harmful effects of climate

change, we must first mitigate the proximate threats of habitat destruction,

fragmentation, and degradation and for the same some recommendations are also

given like providing buffer zones, avoid fragmentations, practice low intensity

forestry and protect against fires. The author emphasizes that increased emphasis

must be placed on actions such as protecting climatic refugia and providing habitat

connectivity parallel to environmental gradients for good forest management during

Introduction 26

changing climate. He has also highlighted some points on which he suggests that

further research is required.

The report by Tideman (2004) describes how people of semi-arid Gujarat

and Rajasthan have evolved their coping strategies with migration and income

diversifications are the key characteristics and the others being easy flow of relevant

information, financial support and increase of milk production as a substitute for

crops. The project under which this report is generated believes that effective

watershed management plays an important role in enhancing the coping and adaptive

ability of people against drought. So the status of two watersheds, one in Gujarat-

Ambaji Watershed (Danta, Banaskantha) and the other in Rajasthan-Jaulna

Watershed (Niwai, Tonk) have been discussed in this report. The report also reviews

the possible impact of climate change on India resulting due to the changing pattern

of monsoon and fluctuation in the groundwater level and their impacts which make

the drought coping strategies even more difficult.

The paper by Das et al. (2005) presents a case study of Tonk district

(Rajasthan) that focuses on the traditional adaptation practices used by the vulnerable

communities in this drought prone area. This place is the best decision ground to

formulate any policy and financial intervention. Tonk has been chosen as the

representative survey area and the situation post the worst drought of 2002 is studied.

It was experienced that occurrences of drought has increased. The traditional

adaptation practices followed were not sowing more water demanding crops like

wheat and cotton, growing crops only for self consumption and those too requiring

minimum water like mustard, chana, cumin seeds. There is also provision for storing

Introduction 27

enough fodder for animals and food grains for self consumption. To obtain water in

a scarce situation generally wells are deepened, new ponds are dug and construction

of anicuts is seen. With the help of a local NGO a medicinal plant named Sona

Mukhi is widely grown which earns them some revenue which is utilized in drought

period. Organic manure is also promoted- vermi-compost, fodder crops are grown

for both domestic and market consumption. The article also mentions the role of

government by programs like Food-for-Work Program, District Poverty Initiative

Project and self-help groups, international funding agencies. The authors have made

some recommendations regarding drought adaptation techniques like efficient

resource management, planning to be linked with developmental activities, efficient

monitoring of programs and enhancement of awareness.

The paper by The Energy and Resources Institute (2006) discusses ways

of mainstreaming adaptation considerations into sustainable development efforts by

establishing a link between adaptation to climate change and sustainable development.

The paper tries to look into the fact that what specific climate change impacts and

measures will affect development efforts and how. After understanding the link better

integrated policies can be formulated. To achieve the desired goal the paper includes

a discussion on the concepts of Vulnerability and Adaptation, their assessment

criterion and why focusing on them is important. It is seen that climate change and

sustainable development interact in a circular fashion. As the human induced climatic

changes affect the sustainable development and the developmental techniques affect

the human factors like land-use change. The measures for integration should be done

on all local, sectoral, national and global levels. Particular significance should be

given to developing nations as they are considered more vulnerable.

Introduction 28

Schipper (2007) in the paper discusses results of the research aimed at

exploring the international discourse on adaptation to the climate change and the

meaning of adaptation to climate change in the context of development. The author

also holds the view that human-induced global climate change is already occurring

and its effects will continue for years to come. Adaptation to climate change is

inevitable and it can either be deliberate or automatic. But some solutions may only

be short term as they are limited by their own lack of flexibility whereas effective

adaptation must have a long term goal. The agenda of adaptation has been the main

focus of United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the

disaster risk reduction community and development agencies (including World

Bank). The article emphasizes that adaptation is a process for reducing impacts not

vulnerability and both adaptation and development play a role in responding to risks.

So links are being drawn between adaptation and sustainable development on

theoretical and political levels. Here poverty and constraints to development

fundamentally restrict adaptation. Relating to this, two tracks towards adaptation are

identified –‗Adaptation approach to drought‘ and ‗Vulnerability reduction‘ to

development. A case study of El Salvador is also cited.

The article focuses on a development agenda where there is emphasis on the

continuous nature of adaptation. It focuses on the processes that are necessary to

achieve sustainable adjustment to all factors contributing to risk. Here adaptation is

understood to guide development successfully in the light of increased risk from

global environmental, social and economic change. On the whole this paper argues

for the perspective of ‗reducing the vulnerability of the poor through development‘

to adapt to climate change.

Introduction 29

The article Adapting to Climate Change (2008) by an anonymous author

discusses the need for adaptation especially for the poor communities of the world.

The main sector for their adaptation should be agriculture. The major concentration

of the article is on the ‗Dry lands‘, which are under threat due to changing climate. It

talks about a case-study of Maharashtra whose 70% land is hot semi-arid to arid and

the agriculture is monsoon dependent. Here a Trust is working in this region for

‗catching rain wherever it falls‘ with a community based resource management. Here

hydraulic structures, water-sheds and training of new and improved agricultural

practices are provided. The natural regeneration of grasses and shrubs is encouraged.

This led to improvement of bio-diversity and revival of flora and fauna of the region.

There is also a mention of the case-study of drought prone area in Bara Province of

western Sudan, which is also a degraded land where a somewhat similar community

based resource management, is done.

It has been suggested that the crop selection should be done of the crop which

can deal with the changing climate and this is a very effective way of adaptation by

the farmers. It is also suggested that the adaptation process can be made smoother if

they are made aware of the potential impacts of climate change.

The article Reviving Traditional Rainwater Harvesting Systems (2008)

whose author is anonymous supports the need and utility of conserving the

traditional rainwater harvesting systems as they are time tested and suitable to the

specific environment. These methods are low cost and also community managed

which encourages optimization of local recourse at micro-level. A few traditional

water harvesting methods in India are also mentioned like ‗Khadins‘ in Rajasthan,

Introduction 30

‗Virda‘ in Gujarat, ‗Dhora‘ of Aravalli region and ‗Eri‘ of Tamil Nadu. Here a

traditional water harvesting system of Sudan is mentioned, stating that it enhanced

their agricultural production security.

Hurd (2008) presents a structured overview of basic concepts that underlie

the design and development of highly credible adaptation strategies i.e. a strategy

with the highest potential for success against the most likely range of changes in

environmental and societal conditions. The paper also interprets the terms-

Sensitivity, Exposure and Adaptability as these are the interacting components with

vulnerability. On the question of when to adapt, the application of reactive and

anticipatory adaptation strategies is also examined. It has been suggested that

adaptation strategies develop over time, usually with sustained investment and

careful planning. It includes the ability of systems, organizations and individuals to-

adjust, mitigate and recover. A variety of adaptation strategies have also been

suggested like improving scientific capabilities, establishment of risk management

institutions, considering climatic factors in land use planning.

Sahai (2008) talks about the negative impact that the global climate change

will have on the crops around the world as it will impact the key cropping factors i.e.

temperature and rainfall. The article also points out that simulation of crop response

models are usually limited to important crops. The impact of higher temperatures,

increased carbon dioxide, rising water stress and increased crop pests are also

discussed. The article mentions the possible benefits of global warming which can

be good for agriculture - enhanced Carbon dioxide assimilation, longer growing

season, and increased precipitation.

Introduction 31

The author suggests that the best remedy to this problem is ‗Climate Proofing‘

the crops. Where crop management practices should be changed by the farmers, grow

tougher plant varieties and be prepared for constant changes in the way they operate.

Srivastav (2008) discusses the strong link between agriculture and rainfall

and examines how strongly both of them impact the agricultural production and state

of farmers in India. The article also mentions that there are 177 districts where

agriculture is completely rain-fed. The author also cites a study conducted by TERI

in Chhattisgarh showing the impact of climate change on cropping pattern. The

article mentions that the frequency of droughts is also likely to increase due to climate

change as pointed out by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The

declaration of UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) regarding the need to

increase the resilience of the world‘s food systems to climate change especially for

the developing nations is also cited here.

The article impresses on the fact that the Indian agricultural system should

put in place an apt coping mechanism timely to save the farmers and the production;

else it could witness a drastic fall in production.

Akermann et al. (2009) gives a glimpse of the major problems with which

the semi-arid Rajasthan is suffering prolonged drought periods, reoccurring in short

intervals as 80% of annual rainfall between June to September and rest nine months

remain dry. The irrigation coverage is also low. According to few farmers rainfall in

past few decades has become even more erratic and untimely, the number of rainy

days has also decreased as most of the agriculture is rainfall dependent and therefore

the farmers abandon their fields and work in nearby cities as their adaptation

Introduction 32

strategy. Here, the author also mentions the remarkable work done by an NGO

namely, Cecoedecon (Centre for Community Economics and Development

Consultant Society) in a village-Bhipur, Rajasthan. Due to its specialized assistance

through seed conservation and grain storage and water harvesting and controlling

were done which resulted in increased crop yield and soil moisture and even barren

land could be put under agriculture. More heat adapted and less water demanding

variety of crops like-millets, green-gram, pulses and mustard are introduced and

locally made pesticides e.g. of neem are used which reduce the input cost as well.

Local seed banks are also established.

With this article the author shows one of the successful adaptation practices

from local communities but also stresses on the fact that it was all due to the co-

operation of the locals.

Dhaka et al. (2010) discusses about the importance of agriculture in India

and climate change as the key component influencing it highlights its impact on food

production and overall economy. The core area of study is how climate change

related disasters like drought, flood, cyclone, hail storm, high-wind and extreme

temperature affecting agriculture production, food security, water resources, bio

diversity are perceived by farmers and what adaptation strategies they adopt. For the

same the study is conducted in the Bundi district of Rajasthan where 500 farmers

were personally interviewed on the above issue. Descriptive statistics were used to

characterize farmers‘ perception and various adaptation measures. The findings

suggest that- most farmers believed that the temperature distribution has undergone

a significant shift in addition to an overall increase in temperature; the rainfall levels

Introduction 33

have decreased; more occurrences of drought; late onset and early withdrawal of

monsoon is observed. Uneven distribution and unpredictable behavior of the rains is

also seen. When the factors influencing farmers‘ perception to climate change were

noted they were- age, experience, innovativeness, environmental consciousness and

exposure of mass media. The adaptation strategies undertaken were- Integrated

farming system (most important adaptation technique), adjusting cropping sequence,

rain water harvesting etc.

It was observed that the farmers taking up adaptation measures were of more

age and experience, were receipt of extension, advice, level of education, larger farm

or showed environmental consciousness.

Measham et al. (2010) underlines the relevance of local governments for

responding to the climate change impacts but their role remains distant here. The

article presents an empirical study of the constraints on planning for climate

adaptation as identified by local government participants such as lack of information,

institutional limitations and resource limitation. Community Based Environmental

Planning can also be adopted but only after due consideration.

Based on the recognized constraints, the authors developed a research project

in Sydney, Australia with the aim to identify how local governments experience these

constraints and how they address them in practical terms. The findings of which

suggest that climate change is seen as one environmental issue along with pollution

and water quality. The participants also mentioned a lack of useful, credible and

relevant information about the nature of climate risk to which they must adapt to be

a key barrier for planning for climate change. The political nature of the local bodies

Introduction 34

also affects the decisions taken in this regards. Hence it is seen that role of local

bodies is crucial but due to some reason their functioning is not that effective as it

can be due the various barriers.

A report by World Bank (2010) sums up the various efforts carried out in

the most drought-prone districts of Mahbubnagar and Anantapur in Andra Pradesh

by a World Bank project - Andra Pradesh Drought Adaptation Initiative (APDAI). It

includes 19 pilot projects sought to enhance the adaptive capacity of rain fed farming

systems to climate variability through optimum use of water, Diversified Farming

System, System of Rice Intensification (SRI), Deccani breed improvement in sheep

and improvement in tank-based fisheries.

The groundwater pilots aim to introduce collective management of groundwater

and also to cultivate crops requiring less water instead of their earlier paddy crop. A

network has been set connecting five individual bore wells, which supplies water to

the entire area. Due to these efforts, Chellapur village remained unaffected in the

drought year of 2010. The farmers were able to increase area under Rabi crops and

have also taken fodder and vegetable crops. Groundnut production also increased

due to the use of sprinklers.

VULNERABILITY

Venema et al. (2002) in the article lays stress on the situation of rural India

and especially of women. The Indian society is largely agrarian and since 1950 there

have been an increase in out-migration of population to non-farm activities. In this

situation the role of women has been greatly marginalized. Their role in farms

include high amount labor still they are deprived of much economic benefit and

Introduction 35

illiteracy ruins this situation and many more. Due to climate change impact on crop

cycles are predicted due to which problems will rise for the rural poor. An example

of Kerala is cited where birth rates are low and literacy rate is high and has very less

gender discrimination. Therefore, the author suggests that the rural environmental

development programs should be community managed and women must play an

active role in the developmental programs and they should also be a central concern

of such programs.

The research paper by The Energy and Resources Institute (2003) deals

with the study of the impacts of climate change and of changes brought about by

economic globalization on a particular region or society. Use of a framework based

on the concept of ‗double exposure‘ is done here. It is identified that the major climate

induced effects are the direct effects from changes in temperature, precipitation, or

carbon dioxide concentrations, indirect effects through changes in soil moisture and

changes in the frequency of droughts or floods. On the economic part there is the

impact of globalization and the implementation of structural administrative reforms.

The Indian agriculture becomes even more vulnerable as there is not much scope to

increase the area under food grains whereas we still have the challenge of feeding a

billion people in a changing climatic and economic scenario. One of the objectives

of the study was to create climate change vulnerability profile for India at the district

level for which a series of maps were constructed. Hence maps depicting biophysical,

social, and technological and climate change vulnerability have been presented. A

second objective of the study was to create a globalization vulnerability profile for

Indian agriculture. For this the map is based on the degree of sensitivity and adaptive

capacity, assuming uniform exposure to liberalization policies such as tariff

Introduction 36

reductions. The two climate change and globalization vulnerability profiles were

then superimposed to identify districts that are ‗double exposed‘ to both processes.

The resulting map indicates that districts in western Rajasthan, southern Gujarat,

Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, northern Andhra Pradesh, and

southern Bihar are considered double exposed. To study the micro-level implications

of vulnerability in the double affected areas, case studies were conducted across five

districts, i.e. Jhalawar district of Rajasthan, Anantapur district in Andhra Pradesh,

Raipur in Chhattisgarh, Jagatsingpur in Orissa and Chitradurga district of Karnataka.

Based on the case studies conducted in these some policy formulation related

suggestion have been given so that they are designed to fortify current coping

capacity also have the power to strengthen long-term adaptive capacity. Measures

such as crop insurance, seed banks, alternative (off-farm) employment options, and

enhanced access to inputs and Markets. Another set of policy-relevant insights

offered by the case study approach relates to the understanding of how certain

factors change the vulnerability of a given community or place over time. This study

wishes to bring attention to the need for strengthening institutions and better

integrating policies with the goal of building long-term adaptive capacity and

resilience to climate change.

Hulme (2003) in his paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in

terms of its potential implications for society; the area under study is The United

Kingdom and northwest Europe in particular. The paper also mentions that the

previous works have generally considered the implications only from economic and

ecological perspectives. Here, the author discusses some implications from a social

and behavioural science perspective. The author considers that the events of abrupt

Introduction 37

climate change have generally been ignored during the analyses of climate-change

impacts and in the design of climate adaptation strategies. The nature of abrupt

climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are

also examined. The example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation is

discussed to show the implications for society of abrupt climate. The author also

examines if abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or

intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in

climate, and what impact it can pose on the adaptation strategies practiced now.

The paper concludes with mentioning the two fundamental problems for

society associated with such an outcome of an abrupt climate change. Firstly, the

future changes in climate currently being anticipated and; secondly, the probability

of such a scenario occurs remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both

problems the problems occurring during climate policy and for decision making

have not been researched so far. It is suggested that a study should be undertaken to

analyze how society would respond to regional climate trends reversed and whether

or not this reversal was related to natural climate variability or abrupt climate change

triggered by anthropogenic forces.

Through a study O’Brien et al. (2004) and other scholars have tried to

identify a method for mapping vulnerability to two stressors (i.e. climate change and

economic globalization) at the sub-national level and then it is applied to examine

the vulnerability of India‘s agricultural sector.

The approach comprises four main steps: (1) developing a national vulnerability

profile for climate change at the district level; (2) developing a national vulnerability

Introduction 38

profile for an additional stressor at the district level; (3) superimposing the profiles

to identify districts in India that are ‗‗double exposed‘‘; and (4) conducting case

studies in selected districts.

To develop a national vulnerability profile for climate change the approach

applies the IPCC typology is followed here to develop measures of adaptive capacity,

sensitivity and exposure. To measure adaptive capacity significant Biophysical (soil

conditions, groundwater availability), socioeconomic (levels of human and social

capital, the presence or lack of alternative economic activities and technological (the

availability of irrigation, quality of infrastructure) factors that influence agricultural

production are identified. Based on these factors in 1991 across India‘s 466 district

map is produced where higher degrees of adaptive capacity in districts located along

the Indo-Gangetic Plains (except Bihar) and lower adaptive capacity in the interior

portions of the country, particularly in the states of Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh,

Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka are identified. To measure sensitivity

under exposure to climate change, a climate sensitivity index (CSI) that measures

dryness and monsoon dependence, based on a gridded data set for 1961–1990 was

created. The globalization vulnerability profile was constructed by combining for

each district the values of the adaptive capacity and import sensitivity indices as a

result high vulnerability in most of Rajasthan and Karnataka, as well as in substantial

portions of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Assam. Notable areas

of low vulnerability occur along the Indo-Gangetic plain is seen. In the end the

approach combines information from the climate and globalization vulnerability

maps to identify areas that are vulnerable to both stressors. The case study areas here

include-Jhalawar district in Rajasthan, Anantapur district in Andhra Pradesh and

Introduction 39

Chitradurga district in Karnataka. Apart from the various merits, like use of ‗top-

down‘ and ‗bottom-up‘ approaches to understand vulnerability and identifying

locations where policy intervention is most critical, there are some limitations of the

method as well. There are differences between farmers and the villages not captured

during mapping though they are identified in case study; concerning the time scale

of the analysis; mapping the district level may lead to false sense of precision. But

the key strength of the approach is that it provides a means for evaluating the relative

distribution of vulnerability to multiple stressors at a sub-national level.

Tompkins et al. (2004) in the paper proposes the belief that adaptation to

climate change requires a broader conceptualization of equitable, legitimate, and

sustainable development in effective and resilient response. Some natural systems

have inbuilt ability to adapt whereas others have to learn how to become resilient.

Here the focus to built resilience in both social and ecological features is on the role

of networks and institutions. Managing natural resource systems with the added

stresses associated with climate change poses a challenge for socio-ecological systems.

This paper explores the potential benefits of present-day co-management (it

is one form of collective action whereby resource stakeholders work together with a

government agency to undertake some aspect of resource management) in building

resilience to cope with climate change through a case study of a coastal community

in Trinidad and Tobago that relies on coastal resources. Here, focus is specifically on

the role of co-management in building community resilience. Resource stakeholders

must follow approaches that offer pathways for vulnerable communities to engage in

developing response policies and ensure that there is room for change in those

Introduction 40

policies. In this paper the authors have cited a case of Trinidad & Tobago for how

co-management promotes resilience for climate change adaptation. There was struggle

of balancing development and conservation. But with co-management adaptations

the stakeholders now take both the actions together. This is believed to transform

into greater ecosystem resilience with time.

Mall et al. (2006) in the article points out that crop growth, development,

water use and yield under normal conditions are largely determined by weather

during the growing season and even with minor deviations from the normal weather,

the efficiency of extremely applied inputs and food production is seriously impaired.

In India agriculture plays a key role in overall economic and social well being. For

the study the all-India area, production and yield of food grains from 1950-51 to

2003-04 along with percentage coverage under irrigation data have been analyzed. It

shows that all these factors are dependent on the vagaries of monsoon. Global

warming may also threaten India food security if there is a negative effect on

agriculture. Climate variability and food production are enormously linked as

extreme weather conditions, such as floods, droughts, heat and cold wave, flash

floods, cyclones and hailstorm, are direct hazards to crops and subtle fluctuation in

weather during critical phases of crop development can also have substantial impact

on yields. Impacts on wheat, sorghum, rice, chickpea, soya bean and maize have

been presented. It is suggested that adaptation measures to mitigate the potential

impact of climate change included possible changes in sowing dates and genotypes

selection. It also mentions that several studies have projected increase or decrease in

yields of cereal crops (rice, wheat, maize and sorghum), Oilseed and pulses crops

(soybean, groundnut, chickpea, mustard and pigeon pea) depending on interaction of

Introduction 41

temperature and CO2 changes, production environment, season and location in India.

Still the climate change impact studies have not conducted on several important

crops in India such as sugarcane, cotton, jute, sunflower, potato and onion etc., which

may be done in future for better assessment of vulnerability of Indian agriculture due

to climate change.

Malone et al. (2008) discusses about their study conducted in 2005, in which

they assessed the current resilience of India and Indian states to climate, using

Vulnerability Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM). Through this approach we learn

about the differing sources and levels of vulnerability and resilience of the Indian

states. In this study the future scenario of ―Resilience Assessment‖ is also done.

VRIM is a four-tier hierarchical model uses 17 proxies (relating to Sensitivity and

Adaptive Capacity), each contributing to the overall Resilience Index. The projections

utilized two IPCC‘s SRES based scenario – ‗rapid growth scenario‘ and ‗delayed

growth scenario‘. A comparative study of Orissa & Punjab has been done as to show

what kind of data can be obtained from VIRM. The outcomes of this model can be

used by policy makers and this model can be applied elsewhere for resilience study.

Bhuiyan et al. (2009) in the paper examine the spatio-temporal variations in

aquifer-recharge in response to erratic monsoon rainfall, high heat flow and

increasing demand by analyzing GIS-based time-series. On this basis zones with

declining trend of water table have been demarcated. The study area for the same is

located in Rajasthan between latitude 23o30‘N to 26

o18‘N; longitude 72

o24‘E to

74o39‘E covering about 25000 sq km of the Aravalli range. This area has very few

surface water bodies and lies in the semi-arid climatic zone. The data used for study

Introduction 42

deals with 38 years of rainfall since 1966 to 2003 and the data for ground water level

since 1984 to 2003 i.e. 20 years for comparison with water level fluctuations and

rainfall patterns and their variations are studied for two decades during 1984-2003.

The ground water levels fluctuate differently in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon

period. The fluctuation was represented using water index WFI which was developed

to quantify recharged deficit. It was found that for the monsoon period recharge

exceeds withdrawal and vice-versa for non-monsoon period. In the decadal

observations are asymmetric response of water table to monsoon rainfall is seen. The

inter-annual variability of rainfall follows no deficit trend or pattern.

Through this study we come to know that the monsoon rainfall has improved

to some extent in the last decade in the south-western part but decreased in the

central Aravalli. Significant change in aquifer-recharge is observed in the later decade

in comparison to earlier decade and the GIS-based time-series analysis is found

advantageous in monitoring spatio-temporal variation of ground-water recharge.

The report by Vulnerability and Adaptation Program in Semi-Arid India

(2009) which worked in Rajasthan and Andra Pradesh from 2005-2009 talks about

two major climate changes. Firstly, the 60% population of India resides in rural

regions whose livelihood is primarily based on climate-sensitive natural resources

with poor adaptive capacity. Secondly, is the concern associated with the biodiversity

loss as around 70% of natural vegetation in India will find it difficult to adapt with

the changing climate. To assess the vulnerability in India the semi-arid regions have

been considered as they are very vulnerable. The areas that were identified for

program implementation were Kothur and Srirangpur of Mahabubnagar district in

Introduction 43

Andra Pradesh and Amda and Kundai of Udaipur district in Rajasthan. The climatic

conditions of all the four villages were assessed and on that basis their climate

projections and the impact on natural resources was calculated. To build response

capacity and improve management of climate risks it included interventions for

improved land and water management, energy conservation, promotion of best

agronomic practices, introducing systems for improved weather based farming

decisions and awareness creation.

Goyal (2009) discussed about how global warming is expected to have a

profound effect on hydrological cycle viz. precipitation, soil moisture,

evapotranspiration (ET) etc. the major stress is laid on the relation between the

effect of global warming on crop‘s water requirement and ultimately on groundwater

resources of Rajasthan. Here, rate of ET has been taken has been taken as the main

component for the study and its relation is studied with climate change and water

resources. The author also stressed upon the fact that the proper water management

techniques should be put to practice as Rajasthan already has water scarcity and it is

likely to increase as the rate of ET is increasing causing a reverse affect an crop

production which ultimately affects the economy of the state.

The book by Singh et al. (2009) talks about the unprecedented loss and

changes in biodiversity taking place at the genetic, species and ecosystem levels, in

both terrestrial and marine group of organisms at Uttarakhand in particular. The

chapters include - Environmental change and biodiversity: Global and Indian

experiences; Environmental change and biodiversity in Uttarakhand; Environmental

change and biodiversity: conceptual framework and research design; Environmental

Introduction 44

profile of Nanda Devi biosphere reserve; Land use/ land cover change and biodiversity:

using RS, GIS and perception approaches; Inventory of biodiversity using: RS and

GIS; Landslide hazard and biodiversity; Biodiversity conservation: global to local

initiatives. The chapter ‗Land use/ land cover change and biodiversity: using RS,

GIS and perception approaches‘ mentions that there is an increased use of Remote

Sensing and GIS technology for the study of land cover/use dynamics. Images from

Landsat-7 acquired from Enhanced Thematic Mappper are utilized. To study the

region, it has been divided into four classes- forest, glaciers, river and bare-land. As

all these classes are dynamic, changes can be studied efficiently. The authors point

out that the problem of biodiversity loss needs to be minimized in order to keep the

ecosystem functional. The book also contributes to India‘s efforts in fulfilling the

goals of the International Year of Planet Earth, Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC.

Arora et al. (2010) mentions that climate change is expected to lead an

intensification of the global hydrological cycle and can have major impacts on

regional water resources affecting both surface and ground water supply. Due to

these factors water stresses will be seen on drinking water and sanitation and also

crop yield. The authors also cite that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) has specifically designated several of India‘s low-lying coastal river deltas-

the Ganges, the Godavari, the Krishna and the Mahanadi- as particular ―hotspots‖ of

climate change vulnerability. The amount water availability data and the National

Water Mission in the country are also mentioned.

The authors reveal that India has witnessed climatic anomalies but is still

under-prepared to face climate change impacts. So for these adaptation strategies

Introduction 45

aiming at sustainable development and management of water must be promoted;

policy changes must be made; more studies should be done in this field and

appropriate models must be adopted.

EXTREME EVENTS

Jodha (1969) does the analysis of weekly rainfall data for 47 years (i.e.

1908-1966) the scholar predicts that there is an occurrence of at least one severe

drought in a period of five years. The study indicated that the agriculture gets

affected due to paucity of rainfall but there are other factors too which contribute

like less soil moisture, low atmospheric humidity and high temperature; these too

contribute in water loss. In this situation if modern conservation techniques like-

bunding, mulching, micro-wind breaks, shelter belts are used then the water paucity

situation created by drought can be controlled. The farmers must also stick to the

cropping of bajra, moth, gwar etc. as they are drought resistant. Similarly, the

perennial grasses must be used to sustain livestock economy. The author also points

out the fact that the grazing lands have a lot of forage to support the animals for two

to three years in the arid region of Rajasthan like Jaisalmer, Barmer, and Bikaner.

But this phenomenon is seen only during monsoonal period. As the water dries in

the region the forage dries up. Therefore, there is a need of stock watering

arrangement so that this forage can be used as pasture land even during the scarcity

period. Proper grazing regulation should be made to ensure controlled and

systematic use of forage.

The author suggests that the government should spend on conservational

methods and it will eventually have lesser spending on the drought relief works. If

Introduction 46

the land use patterns of the districts like Barmer, Bikaner and Jaisalmer are properly

controlled then the scarcity situation can be brought very much in control.

In his paper White (2000) highlights the importance of drought policy,

vegetation monitoring and land management in reducing the impact of drought. The

author has cited the drought policies from Australia and southern Africa. Some of

their practices can even be incorporated in the other arid regions of the world. The

paper stresses that there should be an affective national drought policy which should

aim at making people self reliant. Government policies must favor planning and

preparation for droughts in advance and enough support should be provided to

related researches and farmers‘ education on the same.

Wilhite (2000) in his paper discusses the concept of drought as a natural

hazard having both natural and social components along with drought preparedness

and planning and related policies in United States at state level since 1982. He sees

that the basic goal of state drought plans is to improve the effectiveness of state

response efforts by enhancing monitoring and early warning, risk and impact

assessment and response and mitigation programs. Local, federal and tribal

governments are also given greater attention to drought planning. A review of the

status and progress in 11 sub-Saharan African countries are also included. It is

generally observed here that drought policies are lacking, there is a lack of

preparedness. Still countries like Botswana and South Africa are doing some

progressive work in this field. He also suggests a drought policy and planning

process developed in 1991 in United States for state level governments as a remedy.

He suggests that the various governments can use these steps according to their

Introduction 47

requirements to address the issues associated with drought preparedness as an

integral part of planning for sustainable development.

Wilhite et al. (2001) suggests that there should be a method to supply

drought warnings timely so that proper precautionary measures can be taken timely.

For the same the paper suggests that a proper drought monitoring system should be

introduced. In that system assessment of drought‘s magnitude, its affect on people

and availability of water resources must be done accurately. Here, an Integrated

Drought Monitoring system has been advocated. It is a very scientific data based

computation method, where all the data should be fed correctly covering information

from local, regional and national level. Using these system assessment products can

be generated on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. A case study of USA is also cited

in the paper, in which the evolution of their drought monitoring system has been

given which was launched in 1999. This system consists of color map and a summary

stating the drought‘s current impacts, future threats and prospects for improvement.

Using this system drought has been categorized in 5 intensities i.e. Abnormally Dry,

Moderate, Severe, Extreme and Exceptional Drought. The shortcoming of this

system is that no two droughts have same behaviour and no single parameter is

sufficient enough to determine the severity of drought. But if the observations are

operationalised properly then a very reliable drought monitoring and management

system can be prepared.

The paper by De (2005) reviews the major natural disasters and extreme

weather events which occurred in India from 1901 to 2004. The abnormalities are

observed in the occurrence of- cold wave, fog, snow storms, avalanches, hailstorm,

Introduction 48

thunder storm, dust storm, heat wave, tropical cyclones, tidal waves, floods, heavy

rains, landslides and drought. It has been observed that the frequency and duration of

the events have increased which cause loss of life and property. IPCC in 2001 has

observed that human activities are largely responsible for global warming. This

situation has been intensified due to deforestation, urbanization, and increase in the

number of automobiles. Due to the increase in the frequency of extreme events the

infrastructure associated with the population has also become vulnerable.

Bhuiyan et al. (2006) gives a detailed study of seasonal drought dynamics

has been carried out to identify spatio-temporal drought patterns in meteorological,

hydrological, and vegetative spheres with keeping in mind that drought perception

varies significantly among regions of different climates. Here the study area was

selected in the Aravalli region of Rajasthan of 25,000sq km between latitude

N23030‘– N26

018‘ and longitude E72

024‘-E74

036‘. Time-series drought maps of the

region have been generated in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment

using various drought indices. Since aquifer recharge, agricultural activities, and

ecological changes are controlled by rainfall, the present analysis has been focused

on drought during the monsoon and the non monsoon periods. The region is dry for

most of the year except the rainy season (i.e. June-September) and exhibits a semi-

arid climate. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used to monitor

meteorological drought. It is based on the probability on the probability of

precipitation for any desired time scale and spatially invariant indicator of drought.

SPI has been used to quantify the precipitation deficit in the monsoon and the non-

monsoon periods from 1984 to 2003. Standard Water-Level Index (SWI) was used

to analyze hydrological drought. It was proposed to monitor anomaly in ground-

Introduction 49

water level as a correspondent of aquifer- stress. The pre-monsoon and post-

monsoon ground-water levels of 541 wells of the region had been collected from the

Ground Water Department, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, and have been analyzed to study the

drought effects on hydrological regime Normalised Difference Vegetation Index

(NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI)

and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) have been employed to assess vegetative

drought. Vegetative and agricultural droughts reflect vegetation- stress caused due

to adverse climatic and hydrologic factors. NDVI reflects the vegetation condition

through the ratio of responses in near infrared (Ch2) and visible (Ch1) bands of

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of NOAA VCI varies in the

range 0 and 100 (%) reflect relative changes in the vegetation condition from

extremely bad to optimal. Similarly, Temperature Condition Index represents the

relative change in thermal condition in terms of brightness temperature whose values

are obtained from the thermal band (Ch4) of NOAA-AVHRR. VCI, TCI and VHI of

the study area have been computed for the monsoon and the non-monsoon periods

during the years 1984–2002 by averaging weekly values. Some of the significant

findings in the context of meteorological drought severe to extreme droughts were

observed during 1984-1987, 2000; moderate drought- 1991, 1993, 1995 and 1999.

Hydrological drought is marked by decline of water level at various pockets both

during the monsoon and the non monsoon periods depending upon rainfall,

temperature and draft. During the monsoon of 1985, the vegetation experienced

stress and loss of vegetation health (i.e. vegetative drought) However, it is also seen

that a reasonably good match is observed among all the three drought indices SPI,

SWI and VHI.

Introduction 50

SPI maps indicate that meteorological drought appears in the Aravalli region

in a random fashion. The SWI maps reveal that in the Aravalli region aquifer-stress

shifts its position time to time and the migration is alternate from east to west and

vice versa. In comparison to hydrological stress, vegetative stress in the Aravalli

region is slower to begin but quicker to withdraw. The time-series maps of different

droughts reveal no linear correlation. Moreover, speed of drought development and

drought duration also vary widely. Therefore, identification, classification, and

analysis of drought dynamics are highly influenced by the monitoring parameters.

The article by Goswami et al. (2006) discussed about the variability of

rainfall resulting in the increase of extreme rain events such as – landslides, flash

floods, crop damage etc. in spite of the fact that no significant long term trend is

identifiable. For the study, the scholars used a daily gauged rainfall data at 1 by 1

resolution from IMD based on 1803 stations that have at least 90% data availability

for the period 1951-2000. The Central India is selected as the region to examine the

trends. The findings suggest that the maximum 1-day rainfall during the summer

monsoon of 1951 to 2003 is C1 was 58.2 cm and there is a 10% increase per decade

in the level of heavy rainfall since 1950‘s whereas the number of extreme events

have more than doubled indicating a large increase in disaster potential. The

observed trends suggest enhanced risks associated with extreme rainfall over India

in the coming decades, even though no clear trend can be projected.

The article by Jain et al. (2009) is aimed at integrating meteorological and

satellite based drought indicators for drought monitoring in the southern part of

Rajasthan state which experiences very frequent and the highest degree of droughts

Introduction 51

in India. They identify that out of 3.28mil km2 of geographical area of India about

1.07 mil km2 land experiences water stress and drought condition. By studying the

climatic records of Rajasthan, it is selected by the scholars as the study area. Here,

13 districts covering an area of 10.72 mha i.e. 23000‘N and 26

005‘N latitude,

71018‘E and 77

042‘ E were selected for drought monitoring. This area covers 4 out

of the 9 agro-climatic zones identified in the state namely- the transitional plain of

Luni basin (zone 1), the Sub humid southern plain zone and the Aravalli hills (zone

2), the humid south- eastern plain (zone 3) and the humid southern plain (zone 4).

The meteorological data in form of monthly precipitation data for 5 stations

(Udaipur, Bhilwara, Dungarpur, Chittorgarh and Kota) from 1981-2005 was used.

27 NOAA-AVHRR satellite images were used for the period 2002-2005. The

Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) based on precipitation data and the NDVI

(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), TCI (Temperature Condition Effect),

VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) using satellite data were applied to identify

drought prone area they were computed from satellite derived land surface

parameters. By using the precipitation values for all the stations for the monsoon

period (June to October) for the years 2002-2005 were computed at the NDVI, VCI,

TCI, BT (Brightness Temperature) and WSVI (Water Supply Vegetative Index)

were obtained from AVHRR images during 2002-2005. Here we find that SPI which

revealed that 2002 was the most drought affected state is a very reliable drought

indicator in raj. The economic analysis of NDVI shows that Zone-1 had max drought

conditions from the years followed by Zone-4; Zone-2 and 3 were least affected.

The result reflects the possibility of using satellite images with better spatial and

temporal resolution in drought monitoring in India.

Introduction 52

Guhathakurta et al. (2011) suggests that a large amount of variability of

rainfall is related to the occurrence of extreme rainfall events and their intensities.

So a study of spatial variability of extreme rainfall events over different parts of the

country would help to identify zones of high and low values of extreme rainfall

events. For the study daily rainfall data was collected from 1901-2005 for 2599

stations. To detect the trend the non-parametric Mann-Kendell Test was used. With

its help stations with significant increasing and decreasing trend in frequency of

rainy days were marked. The result talks about all the 36 meteorological sub-

divisions of India. Annual normal rainy days vary from the low value of 10 over

extreme western parts of Rajasthan to the high frequency of 130 days over

northeastern parts of the country. This study reveals the noticeable changes in the

extreme rainfall events that occurred over India in the past century. The flood risk

also increased significantly over India. The flood risk was more in the decades

1981–1990, 1971–1980 and 1991–2000 over the eastern coast, West Bengal, east

Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Konkan region.

Introduction 53

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY:

1. To understand the changing scenario of Rajasthan with respect to climate

change through rainfall, temperature.

2. To study the extreme weather events of flood and drought in Rajasthan

3. To address the vulnerabilities to current water scarcity and climate change

risks.

4. To study Rajasthan Government‘s adaptation strategy, plans and programs

on water resource in the light of climate change

Introduction 54

1.4 HYPOTHESIS

1. Extreme events i.e. droughts and floods have increased in the state.

2 Nature of rainfall has changed with increase or decrease in precipitation in

most of the districts in Rajasthan.

3. Heat waves/hot spells in summer of longer duration, more intense and more

frequent, particularly in Western Rajasthan.

4. Dependency on ground water has increased.

Introduction 55

1.5 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Source of Data Collection

The study is based on the secondary data and literature collected from the

research institutions, libraries and related government departments. For primary data

collection Survey was conducted in the Barmer district. The data was statistically

analyzed and is presented in the form of tables, maps and graphs.

Methods of Data Processing

The data is analyzed in two modes, i.e. statistical analysis and cartographic

analysis. The statistical analysis was done with the help of SPSS (Statistical Product

and Service Solutions) 15.0. For cartographic work MapInfo Professional 6.5 was

used.

Case Studies

Two case studies were conducted covering rural as well as urban area. First

study was conducted to find out the farmers respond to climate change in rural area

of Rajasthan. For this Aagore, Mahaderi Naadi, Uttarlai naadi, Sarkapaar,

Naganeshia and Beriyon ka Baas dhaanis were covered from drought prone areas

of the state. A questionnaire was prepared to collect the primary data.

Second study was conducted in the Barmer city urban area to study the

urbanization, water crises and its management.