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1044\BT\## 4
Greenpeace Question
Could offshore wind energy become a core part of
Europe’s energy supplies?
• Could this be achieved by the end of the next decade?
• As well as the global environmental benefits, would it bring other benefits to Europe?
• What would need to happen along the way?
A focus on identifying, and overcoming, obstacles
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Premise
Why is it not already obvious?
• Global environmental benefits accepted
• Sceptics not convinced it can make it in the real world
• ….so, work through challenges one by one
• Show by example and logic
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Approach
• Deliberately bold
• Start with a target – 30% - and work back
• Tease out challenges and actions
• Result – if this is what we want, it will not be possible unlesss….
1044\BT\## 8
Chapters
What are the implications for…
• Growth rates• Sea-bed take / scale of development• Investment• Technology • Costs• Grid• Social issues
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Growth Rates
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
GW
In
stal
led
Wind energy to-date
BTM predictions IEA predictions
SeaWind Europe postulated offshore wind growth
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Growth Rates
• Growth in wind energy terms looks achiveable
• In offshore terms, it is very ambitious
• Installation volumes are very large at steeper parts of curve
• Major constraint is the number of projects coming through the permitting system
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Investment: current
• In today’s markets, commercial-sector investment a necessity
• With exception of Middelgrunden, investment to-date has been on balance sheet. Private equity structures emerging for some German projects.
• Traditional model for wind is project finance.
• Commercial banks will invest as financial risks defined.
• There is a gap where uncertainty remains, which will be repeated as projects move into deeper/ more exposed environments and as technology develops.
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Investment: future
• On average, would require €14-24 Billion per year capital investment (wind is capital intensive)
• SeaWind Europe would represent a significant proportion of all project finance deals, but is comparable to the scale of investment in energy sectors.
• New finance structures (for wind sector) for offshore wind?
• Other sectors have momentum. There needs to be a “belief” that there will always be a market for offshore wind.
• A clear role for institutional banks to bridge some of the investment gaps
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Technology
Reinforced plastics
Everyday use in manufactured goods, esp. similar to composition in aerospace and boat-building.
SeaWind Europe would require growth in specialist wind industry suppliers. If C-reinforced blades grow, longer lead-times required.
Steel
Predominant in heavy engineering, high recycled component. World steel suppliers & manufacturers need new markets – ready-made facilities
Steel and/or concrete
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Making use of existing skills and facilities
Sif Shipyard, Holland
Burmeister & Wain Shipyard, Denmark
A2Sea, Nysted
Isleburn, Scotland
1044\BT\## 18
Investment: future
• On average, would require €14-24 Billion per year capital investment (wind is capital intensive)
• SeaWind Europe would represent a significant proportion of all project finance deals, but is comparable to the scale of investment in energy sectors.
• New finance structures (for wind sector) for offshore wind?
• Other sectors have momentum. There needs to be a “belief” that there will always be a market for offshore wind.
• A clear role for institutional banks to bridge some of the investment gaps