10/29/11 - Stock Market Trends & Observations – Weekly Update

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Stock Market Trends Weekly Update 10/29/11Posted October 29, 2011 by Bob

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Recent Posts

Stock Market Trends Weekly

Update 10/29/11

Identifying Bear Market

Bottoms & New Bull Markets

by Paul Desmond
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reference.

I draw the trend lines and wave co unts on a daily basis (sometimes

more often).

When a market mov e has bee n going in one direc tion for a lengthy

period of time, you will only find the trend lines and wave c ounts

on charts with longer time frames. This gives perspective to the

lines and counts. Perspective was a favorite o f Edson Gould.

I restrict my trend lines and wave co unts to only a few charts,

TSX, DJI, SOX and COMPQ. The other charts on the page are

usually for co nfirmation of the trend and wave structure.

Page 1 Index es With 1 Minute Bars





Page 6 Index es With Daily Bars (candlestic ks last 13 months)

Page 7 Indexes With Daily Bars (since Nov ember 20 08)

Page 8 Index es With Weekly Bars

Page 9 Index es With Monthly Bars

Pages 10 through 13 are indicators. The indicators are used to

simply look for some ty pe ofleading action before a turn or

confirming action of the wave count. Page 10 is a look every day

page. The other indicator pages are less frequently v isited.

Page 14 through 26 are sector ETFs. They represent most of the

active sector ETFs and are always a good bet when looking for

something that is breaking in a new direction.

Page 27 through 39 are growth stocks. These are stocks that have

risen in price since 1 990. One qualification is that they must not

Utilities by Edson Gould

Swing Principle by

Edson Gould

Speed Lines by Edson Gould

Archives

October 2011 (18)

September 2011 (17)

August 2011 (32)

July 2011 (17)

June 2011 (10)

Categories

DAILY UPDATE (62)

EDSON GOULD (12)

GLOSSARY (1)

SELL/BUY ACTION UPDATE

(10)

WEEKLY UPDATE (16)

October 2011M T W T F S S

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30
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be severely damaged in a bear market so they cant rise to

significant new highs in the following bull market.

The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 3 y ears

and weekly prices since 1990. This gives a good perspective of

how they have be haved in the immediate past (daily c harts) and

how they behaved during good and bad times (weekly charts).

WAVE COUNT SSIMPLIFIED

My wave counts are not Elliott Wave! Its different, simple and

functions w ithout a maze of exclusions.

T here are 3 peaks (or valleys) to a com pleted wave cou nt.

A rev ersal of trend takes place after a completed wave count.

Often times its as simple as counting 3 bumps (or dips) on a chart .

. . Other times, not so easy .

In a downtrend the same rules apply ex cept y ou are co unting 3

dips instead of 3 bumps.

Each step must stay c onfined to a channel . Laying a pen or

pencil on the c hart will help y ou v isualize the channel.

As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the ov erall

current trend will also be c onfined to a larger channel.

When the m arket breaks a channel (regardless of the

perceivedwave cou nt), the current step has beenterminated. (Make sure yo ur channel was correct b efore calling

a termination).

The correction following the second step is larger than the

correc tion that followed the first step. Obv iously the correc tion

following the third step will be larger than the preceding two

corrections.

-

Sep

31

Wall Street Quotes

The essence of investment

management is the

management of risks, not the

management of returns. Well

managed portfolios start with

this precept.

Benjamin Graham

The time of maximum

pessimism is the best time to

buy and the time of maximum

optimism is the best time to

sell.John Templeton

Buy on the cannons,

sell on the trumpets.

Old French Proverb

Rule #1: Never lose money.

Rule #2: Never forget rule #1

Warren Buffett

The four most dangerous

words in investing are

"This time it's different".

John Templeton

"This time it's different" was

prevalent during the bubble

of 2000. In 1929 it was called
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.

call this an ex tension. When this happens (1) the trend is still

intact, (2) the channel will widened and (3) instead of a total of

3 steps, there will be 5 steps.

Sometimes I will use the terms step and wave interchangeably .

Reading the glossary helps in the understanding of this blog.

Glossary Link

ABBREVIATIONS

DJI = Dow Jones Industr ials

DJT = Dow Jones Transportat ions

SPX = SP 50 0

ES = SP 500 Futures

COMPQ = Nasdaq Composite Index

TSX = Toro nto Stock Exchange (Canadian blue chips)SOX = Semico nducto rs

XLY = Consumer

****************************************************************

WEEKLY UPDAT E

CLI CK ON CHART S TO ENLA RGE

Short T erm

Oct 4, 2011 T o Present

Wave Cou nt Fuzzy But Sm all Step 3 Up Appears Likely

Resistance Was Likely En cou ntered At Friday Highs

Possible Short T erm Correction Ah ead

SHORT T ERM COMMENT S

"New Economics".

Bob

History always repeats, only

the details change.

Edson Gould

If you have trouble imagining

a 20% loss in the stockmarket, you shouldn't be in

stocks.

John (Jack) Bogle

Stock are bought on

expectations, not facts.

Gerald Loeb

Emotions are your worst

enemy in the stock market.Don Hays

P/E ratio The percentage of

investors wetting their pants

as the market keeps

crashing.

Anonymous

Herd Mentality

Men, it has been well said,think in herds it will be seen

that they go mad in herds,

while they only recover their

senses slowly, and one by

one.

Extraordinary Popular

Delusions and the Madness of

Crowds
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1 0-29-11 DJI - 60 Min

Herd Mentality

Cases such as Tulipomania in

1624 when Tulip bulbs

traded at a higher price than

gold sugges t the existence

of what I would dub

"Mackay's Law of Mass

Action:" when it comes to theeffect of social behavior on

the intelligence of individuals,

1+1 is often less than 2, and

sometimes considerably less

than 0.

Extraordinary Popular

Delusions and the Madness of

Crowds

I made money by selling too

soon.

Bernard Baruch

If all you have is a hammer,

everything looks like a nail.

Bernard Baruch

The main purpose of the

stock market is to make fools

of as many people as

possible.

Bernard Baruch

The hardest part of a bull

market is staying on.

A bubble is a bull market in

which you don't have a
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position.

A buy and hold strategy is a

short term trade that went

wrong.

October, this is one of the

peculiarly dangerous months

to speculate in stocks. Theothers are July, January,

September, April, November,

May, June, December, August

and February.

Mark Twain

Economists have predicted 14

of the last 3 recessions.

Market Correction The dayafter you buy stocks.

In 2008 stocks were a good

buy . . . . . Goodbye

Mercedes, goodbye yacht,

goodbye vacation home,

goodbye . . .

Markets can remain irrational

longer than you can remainsolvent.

John Maynard Keynes

Money talks, but all mine ever

says is "goodbye"

Don't gamble. Take all of your

savings and buy some good
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stock and hold it until it goes

up, then sell it. If it don't go

up, don't buy it.

Will Rogers

Return of principal is more

important than the return on

principal.

Hope is your worst enemy in

the market.

Don't catch a falling knife.

Spend at least as much time

researching a stock as you

would choosing a refrigerator.

Peter Lynch

When you realize that you

are riding a dead horse the

best strategy is to dismount.

Sioux Indian Proverb

Dont ever make the mistake

of telling the market it is

wrong.

James Dines

Wall Street never changes,

the pockets change, the

suckers change, the stocks

change, but Wall Street never

changes, because human

nature never changes.

Jesse Livermore


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Let Wall Street have a

nightmare and the whole

country has to help get them

back in bed again

Will Rogers

Bulls makes money, bears

makes money, pigs get

slaughtered.My Grandfather

Never buy a stock that won't

go up in a bull market. Never

sell a stock that won't go

down in a bear market.

Wall Street is a street with a

river at one end and a

graveyard at the other.

Never check stock prices on a

Friday, it could spoil your

weekend.

Nobody is more bearish than

a sold out bull.

The public is right during the

trends but wrong at bothends.

Humphrey Neill

Those who can, do.

Those who cant, teach.

Those who cant teach, work

for the government.


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Never sell a dull market short.

I sell euphoria and buy

panic.

The way he determines that

is to wait until prices start

gapping in the charts.

Gapping on the upside is

euphoria, while gapping onthe downside is panic.

Jimmy Rogers courtesy of Jeff

Saut

"Cut your losses and let your

profits run."

Don't marry a stock. Every

stock must be sold.

Often times WHEN you take a

position can be more

important than WHAT you

take a position in.

Bob

About This Blog

Observations of Stock Market

Trends uses several

proprietary technical

indicators discovered by the

author. The object of this blog

is to notify you (preferably in

advance) of the important

tops and bottoms in the stock

market. We know that's


10/24

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impossible, but nevertheless,

it's attempted in this blog.

"Observations of Stock

Market Trends" is published

on an irregular schedule but a

daily update is likely when we

are near a stock market

inflection point.

If you find the blog

interesting, please become a

follower by entering your

email address in the section

"Email Subscription" (top of

this column). You must also

confirm your email

subscription by clicking on a

link in the confirmation email,

otherwise you ain't

subscribed.

Disclosure

The content on this blog is

meant to be entertaining

information and should not be

construed as investmentadvice.

No statement by the blog's

author should be interpreted

as a recommendation to buy

or sell any security, financial

instrument, or to participate

in a trading or investment


11/24

df di b PRO i A d l ? T t th HTML t PDF API

1 0-29 -1 1 Trend Lines & Wav e Counts

The above charts (with trend lines and wave counts) can be found at page

4 and 5 on my chart link.

I labeled step 3 down (February to October) as completed in my charts

well before I commented on that ev ent in this blog. Thats a good reason

to chec k the charts frequently.

Make sure and stay up to date by watching the current c ounts and

trend lines in my c hart link. I am constantly fiddling with the lines and

counts try ing to find the best fit. This blog requires work while a chart

update only take a minute or two. Interpretation of the charts can take

the longest.

Tim Haye s, chief investment strategist of the widely ready institutional

service , Ned Davis Research, said last week that he thought the market

could surpass the 2007 all-time market highs. This has been a

contention of mine for almost 1 0 y ears, wide swinging markets. See

megaphone formation under Very Long Term Comments below. Other

than my own, I hav e not heard a meaningful prediction o f bettering the

2007 highs until this week. Tim Hay es also said that he thought we were

in an ongoing bear market that began in 2000. This corresponds ex actly

strategy.

Any investment decision by

anyone that results in losses

or gains based on information

from this blog is not the

responsibility of the blog's

author.

The blog's author will make

statements about certain

investment vehicles and

strategies, but It's simply the

author expressing his

opinion, or action, regarding

his own investments. These

opinions are never to be

construed as investment

advice.

About Me

With 55 years of studying and

investing in the stock market,

I am sharing these

experiences and knowledge

by writing a stock market

blog. This blog relies onseveral unique and

proprietary indicators.

I have been correct at some

of the biggest market turns in

the last 40 years. I was short

for most of 1973 1974,

reversed course and became


12/24df di b PRO i A d l ? T t th HTML t PDF API

with my long term thoughts. As I hav e said in Very Long Term

Comments, I believe the eventual bottom will occur in 2018 (cy clical

projection) but anytime after 2015 seems possible.

Tim Haye s also thought we could ex ceed the May 20 11 highs before year

end. That would be nice and if it happens, it would certainly mark the

bottom on October 4th as the b eginning of large step 3 (counting from

March 2009). Large step 3 could match or exceed the 2007 highs.Lotsa profits to be made if that happens. Will you be on board????

Currently we c ould be faced with a short term correc tion beginning on

November 1 st. Institutions will be window dressing through the 31st.

The most desirable outc ome is for this overbo ught market to stay

ov erbought. This is the best sign to the kickoff to a big market surge.

****************************************************************

Interm ediate Term

3 Steps Down Are Com plete (February 20 11 T o October 4,

2011)

October 4, 2011 to Present

Step 1 Up Is Underway

before Christmas 1974. I was

also short for most of the first

half of 1982 but became a

buyer on August 4, 1982. This

was five days before the

August 9, 1982 blast off on

the historic bull market run of

the 1980s and 1990s. In

1999 I began tolling the bell

on the stock market knowing

that the end was near (no

one listened). In March 2003,

prior to the beginning of the

Iraq war I became very

bullish when it was obvious

that there was no reason to

own stocks and we had also

achieved a double bottom.Shortly after the October

2007 peak I became a seller

and bear. Days prior to the

March 2009 bottom, I bought

stocks in anticipation of a

very good rally that turned

into a big bull run. In the later

stages of the February May

2011 topping process, Ibegan warning of an

important market correction.

One man was responsible for

my education, Edson Gould,

the greatest technician that

ever lived.
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1 0-2 1 -11 INTERMEDIATE TERM

After reading many of the

books on stock market

technical analysis, I found

that all of these methods had

high failure rates. I searched

for a formula that worked

consistently and in 1973 I

subscribed to Edson Gould's

"Findings & Forecasts". Here Istruck gold with the master

technician of the 20th

century. Extending his

methods I discovered several

proprietary indicators that I

use today.

If you find my observations of

interest please add your

email address to the section,

"Email Subscription".

Spam Blocked

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1 0-2 1 -11 INTERMEDIATE TERM ($TSX )

****************************************************************

Long T erm

Uptrend

Mar 2009 To Present

Step 2 Up (of 3) Com pleted

Has Step 3 Begun ???

From the bottom in March 200 9

Large step one up ended in May 2010

Large step two up ended in May 2011.

Exceeding the May 2011 highs will signal that Step 3 up is official
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1 0-21 -1 1 LONG TERM

****************************************************************

Very Lon g Term


16/24

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Very Lon g Term

Downtrend

Jan 2000 T o Present

Step 2 Down (of 3) Com pleted

Currently In Rally Phase From Step 2 Down

1 0-21 -1 1 VERY LONG TERM

VERY LONG T ERM COMMENT S
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We have 3 possibilities for the future.

We have entered a very wide swinging m arket

(megaphone formation) sim ilar to that of 1966 to 1974.

During that era we had three bear markets with two intervening

bull market rallies. Each bear market had a lower low than the

previous b ear. The interve ning bull market rallies saw new all

time highs before the nex t bear market began.

We also have formed a huge head and shoulders formation since

1998. If this formation is valid, the downside measurement calls

for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1,0 00.

We began a long term bull market in March 20 09. Each

subsequent min-bear market will result in higher lows than the

prior major low.

I favor the m egaphone formation as the m ost likely

scenario.

Since 2000 we have had two bear markets, 2000 to 200 3 and 2007 to

2009. Like 1966 to 197 4, the recov ery from the first bear market saw a

new all time high (2007 peak). Its possible that we may ex perience

another all time high during the present recov ery period. This would

support the megaphone formation. A failure to make new highs would

support the head and shoulders argument. In both formations theconclusion of the present recov ery would call for a third and final bear

market. An estimated time for the conclusion o f the final bear market is

approximately 20 18.

The lesser downside target of both formations is the megaphone

formation as it likely calls for a bottom 1,0 00 to 2,000 points below the

2009 low which would be around Dow 5 00 0


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2009 low, which would be around Dow 5,00 0.

In the head and shoulders formation the measurement calls for a bottom

around Dow Jones Industrials 1,0 00. This is almost an unimaginable

eve nt regarding the possible fundamentals to c reate this scenario. If this

did happen, ev ery thing that could go wrong would have to go wrong.

The reasons range from the absurd to the absurdly absurd. This scenario

is so dark that it doesnt seem possible but nev ertheless, the head andshoulders formation is there and will be waiting until we pierce the all-

time highs of October 2 007 .

Remember these are simply possible scenarios and are not embedded in

fact. Whatever the outc ome, it never hurts to be a little cautious with

some of your money . But in the worst case scenario, every thing that we

take for granted as being safe . . . . would not be safe. This is something

to never forget in the event things go v ery badly.

Hopefully we will never have to think about worst case sc enarios other

than to have a go od laugh at them presently.

****************************************************************

REAL ESTAT E

Here is a PDF report on the cy clic nature of real estate prices. Any one

interested in cy cles and real estate should find it of interest.

Real Estate Cyc les

****************************************************************

EDSON GOULD

Edson Gould, Premier Stock Market Strategist Edson
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Edson Gould, Premier Stock Market Strategist Edson

Gould had a profound influence o n the dev elopment of my

techniques and proprietary indicators. Prior to my subscr ibing to

his advisory service, I was just one of the crowd.

After 40 y ears I still have many of the publications from his

advisory servic e, Findings & Forecasts. Fearing the loss of these

hard copy reports I hav e recently created pdf files of these

reports. Now I have hard copies and computerized versions of thereports.

I hav e used a technique of his that I found in an obscure reference

in one of his reports. It was only mentioned once and never

again. I believ e that he used this tool and never told the world its

importance. Prior to my finding this Edson Gould tool, I had been

try ing unsuccessfully to find a different way to c hart the market.

When I read about his technique I knew instantly that this was

exac tly what I had been seeking. I have charted this method back

to 193 9 and found it to be very useful. On occasion I may post one

these charts.

This man was truly a legend in his own time. Its too bad that

today most people have forgotten or nev er heard of his

discov eries. Because of this I have posted some of his advice from

the 197 0s. Its my small contribution to memorializing a giant of

technical analysis.

My Most Im portant Discov ery by Edson Gould

Edson Gould Profile by MT A

Edson Gould Conc epts by William Scheinm an

Decade Cycle by Edson Gould

Decade Cyc le Update by Ned Davis
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Swing Principle by Edson Gould

Utilities by Edson Gould

Dividends by Edson Gould

Bonds by Edson Gould

Speed Lines by Edson Gould

Sentimeter by Edson Gould

****************************************************************

TRANSACTION SIGNALS

ALL A CTIONABLE SIGNALS (buy or sell) A RE ONLY FOR SHORT

TERM TIME FRAMES. These signals are not designed for

intermediate or long term time frames BUT . . . . .

After a short term buy signal, long term tax status can beachieved by a continuation of the upward trend, which causes

short term actions to morph into long term holdings.

See more details in the glossary under Tax es, Futures Contracts

and Money Management.

Glossary Link

T RANSACT ION RECORD

In this blog a warning of an impending botto m (or top) is often

issued well in advance o f the formal buy or sell date. This allows

thoughtful consideration prior to a formal action signal. To get a

sense of how this works, you should read a few days prior to a

formal buy /sell signal. I often buy/sell in my personal account

based on the early warnings.
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y g

The transaction record near stock market bottoms will show that I

am ve ry skittish and usually remain so until the new direction is

well underway .

Buy signal in October was aborted by a family illness

SELL SEPTEMBER 9, 2011

BUY AUGUST 30, 2011SELL AUGUST 30, 2011 Stopped out, re-bought quic kly

BUY AUGUST 29, 2011

SELL AUGUST 25, 2011

BUY AUGUST 23, 2011

SELL AUGUST 1, 2011

BUY JUNE 23, 20 11

****************************************************************

MISCELANEOUS

There are useful items throughout this blog. For instance, the

Wall Street Quotes can be v ery instructive. So make sure and

look all through the blog.

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10/29/11 - Stock Market Trends & Observations – Weekly Update