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10/28/09© Copyright Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved
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Future Wireless Network ArchitectureFuture Wireless Network ArchitectureDriven by Broadband Data TrafficDriven by Broadband Data Traffic
MIT CIPS WorkshopMIT CIPS WorkshopOctober 28, 2009October 28, 2009
Berge Ayvazian, Senior Advisor, Yankee GroupBerge Ayvazian, Senior Advisor, Yankee GroupPrincipal Consultant, Wireless 20/20Principal Consultant, Wireless 20/20
10/28/09© Copyright Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved
Introduction to Wireless 20/20
Consulting group focused on the emerging broadband wireless market – 3G, LTE, Wi-Fi, WiMAX
Expertise in Broadband technology, market and modeling Provide support to the “Broadband Wireless Ecosystem”
Component Vendors, Equipment Vendors, Service Providers, Regulators
Developed over 30 Wireless Business Cases around the world North America, South America, China, Europe, Africa, Middle East
Developed comprehensive tools to model broadband wireless networks What is the impact on ROI?
10/28/09© Copyright Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved
Mobile Industry Trends
Evolution to Data-centric Mobile Networks Data is growing faster than voice on today’s 2G and 3G networksNeed for scalable backhaul as all-IP 4G networks develop
Emergence of Smartphone ApplicationsDriven by mobile email, SMS/MMS, ringtones and content
Hosted apps specific for mobile smartphone devices
Growth of Mobile Internet TrafficTransition from mobile email/SMS to internet-based multimedia content and information exchange: YouTube and social networking Mobile access to cloud computing services, eg. Salesforce.com
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Mobile Broadband Smartphone Handsets, Notebooks and Netbooks and DataCards Drive Data Traffic Growth
Emergence of Smartphone Applications and Widgets
Mobile Device and Application Trends
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Laptops/DataCards
Laptops/DataCardsNetbooksNetbooks3G Smartphones3G Smartphones MIDsMIDsConsumer
Electronics
ConsumerElectronics
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Global Mobile Data Forecast
Global mobile traffic will increase 66X between 2008-13Broadband will drive 80% of mobile traffic, and exceed two exabytes per month Global mobile data traffic reached one exabyte/month in half the time it took fixed data traffic to do so
High-end 3G smartphone generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature 2G cell phonesLaptop Aircard or Netbook generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phonesAlmost 64% of world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013including streaming, downloading and interactive video communications
Mobile Data/Video Challenge - Scalable Core and Backhaul
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Mobile Data Traffic Tsunami
Source: Cisco Global Mobile Data Traffic ForecastInforma Telecoms and Media, 2009
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Massive Data Traffic Growth Forecast Tier 1 US Mobile Service Providers
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Year
Source: Yankee Group, 2009
Mobile Broadband Data Traffic Growth Drives Backhaul Requirements
Da
ta
AR
PU
Data ARPU
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US Mobile Operator Network Evolution
HSPA+ in 2010No Announced Date for LTE
HSPA (R6) in 2010Maximum 7.2 Mbps Average 700 Kbps – 1 Mbps
GSM Voice HSDPA - Data
T-Mobile USA
Clearwire Network Build out in selected markets 2009-2010
Mobile WiMAX802.16e
CDMA VoiceEV-DO Rev A - Data
Sprint
LTE Trials by year-end 2009LTE Deployment begins 2010 for 30 commercial marketsnationwide build-out late 2013 or early 2014.
LTE .
CDMA VoiceEV-DO Rev A - Data
Verizon Wireless
LTE trials in 2010Deployment begins in 2011
HSPA (R6) in 2009 Maximum 7.2 Mbps Ave. 700-1,700 Kbps
GSM VoiceHSDPA - Data
AT&T
4G Deployment DateNext 3G Data Network Current 3G NetworkMobile Network Operator
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Mobile Internet and 4G Network Transformation Will Impacts the Entire Mobile Ecosystem
Devices
Voice-centric
Media Internet Centric
Access/Backhaul
Narrowband
Broadband
Edge/Core
Connectivity Centric
Internet Centric
Services/Apps
Vertical Integration
Horizontal and
Vertical Integratio
n
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Today’s Mobile Data Network Architecture Not Built for Mobile Data Applications
• AT&T’s Edge and 3G network performance has suffered trying to support millions of iPhones
• Netbooks and datacards are the next challenge
• RAN being upgraded to HSPA+ and ultimately LTE
• Cost for Existing Backhaul running into $100Ms
• Current backhaul is being upgraded to Fiber/Ethernet
• AT&T’s network is a harbinger for other mobile providers
• Verizon Wireless
• Sprint/Clearwire
• T-Mobile
• Vodafone
• Orange
• Telefonica/O2
• None of them are Ready for 4G
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4G Operator Deployment Strategies Driven by Legacy Position and Competitive Market
4G Plans of Major MNOs
• MNOs making huge investment on RAN and Backhaul for Mobile Broadband
• AT&T and Vodafone 3G networks being upgraded to HSPA in 2009, postponing LTE into 2012
• Verizon Wireless is LTE first mover with trials in 2009 and commercial deployment in 2010
• Sprint using Clearwire mobile WiMAX network for 4G starting in 2009
• Vodafone deploying HSPA in 2009 and plans LTE in 2012
• KDDI announced LTE while UQ Communications 4G mobile WiMAX network in late 2009
• Korea Telecom using mobile WiMAX network for 4G while testing LTE
• NTT DoCoMo is currently testing LTE and deploying EPC and IMS to offer commercial Super 3G services beginning in 2010
• Other 4G first movers include Telstra Australia, TeliaSonera and Telenor 11
NTT docomo
Super 3G/LTEGSM/HSDPA
LTE
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Next Generation Radio Technologies are Coming
Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
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Spectrum Substantial spectrum to deliver true mobile broadband experienceSubstantial spectrum to deliver true mobile broadband experience
Core Network Open, Flat all-IP packet core network, low cost, simple, low latency, with intelligence and analytics montize rich media applications.Open, Flat all-IP packet core network, low cost, simple, low latency, with intelligence and analytics montize rich media applications.
Backhaul High Capacity Ethernet links to connect the radio network to the packet core, the Internet and other networks.High Capacity Ethernet links to connect the radio network to the packet core, the Internet and other networks.
Radio Network Open, standards based base stations, radio access network to deliver multi-megabit speeds to the end user.Open, standards based base stations, radio access network to deliver multi-megabit speeds to the end user.
4G Service Providers Need
Devices Wide selection of devices, including low cost, and embedded to reduce barriers to entry and make customer acquisition affordable.Wide selection of devices, including low cost, and embedded to reduce barriers to entry and make customer acquisition affordable.
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4G is More than a Radio Access Network
IMS
Internet
Internet
Internet
Operator IP Service
Domain
GERAN
E-UTRANeNodeB
UTRAN
BTS
NodeBSGSN/MME
SGWLTE
AAA/ HSS
OverlaidNetworks
ePDGWiFi / Femto / WiMAX
3G
PGW/GGSN
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Evolved Packet Core (EPC) drives all-IP for capital and operational efficiencies and to accelerate service
innovation
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Radio Network Upgrades Alone Cannot Address Traffic Demands
Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
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4G is Much More than a Radio Access Network
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Massive investments needed to overcome backhaul choking-point
Efficiencies of Ethernet in the backhaul
Source: Yankee Group – September 2009
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Mobile Backhaul Trends
Path to 4G heralds hyper-convergence of communications, Internet, media, mobility and machine
New players are poised to capitalize on 4G and the Anywhere Network
Service providers are grappling with transformation strategies for 4G Current market strategies are driven by competition and are not
addressing market demand Ecosystems evolving to empower the end users and disrupt status
quo Within next five years, mobile network operators have to:
Transition from TDM to packet based backhaulTransition to fiber backhaul and microwaveSimplify backhaul connectivity with EthernetUnify the voice and data networks mobile networks, particularly for wireline backhaul
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3G and 4G Mobile Network Backhaul Challenge
Over $24 billion was spent on mobile backhaul services globally in 2008 US mobile network operators spent $6.2 billion on backhaul in 2008 for
228,000 cell sites supporting an average of 10 Mbps or less of capacity In 2012, there will be more than 300,000 cell sites in the U.S., each
supporting on average 100 Mbps. If MNOs keep throwing T1s at the problem, this would result in a
backhaul bill of $82 billion. The monthly average cost per site would be about $23,000 compared to today’s average of $2,100.
MNOs need to plan RAN and backhaul together – preplanned fiber hub sites enable broad microwave coverage and lowers lifecycle costs
4G requires more fiber and microwave in the backhaul network to support high bandwidth requirements
Metro Ethernet and fiber hubbing enables node aggregation
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100 Mbps Ethernet Backhaul Needed to Support HSPA+ and WiMAX, More for LTE
10 Mbps Backhaul in 2008
100 Mbps Backhaul in two years
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WiROI Model for LTE Backhaul
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Future Wireless Network ArchitectureFuture Wireless Network ArchitectureConclusion
Mobile Internet presents tremendous opportunities for those who transform to address its demands
Service providers must embrace the Mobile Internet and 4G or perish
A holistic approach towards technology evolution is critical in the run up to 4G
Service providers must drive transformation into their company culture and with employee incentives to change
Focus on Backhaul and Evolved Packet Core in the Transition to 4G to Optimize the Mobile Internet User Experience
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04/01/09 © Copyright Wireless 20/20, LLC. – All rights reserved 22
Questions?
Haig Sarkissian408 884-1561
Berge Ayvazian617 [email protected]
www.wireless2020.netRandall Schwartz
Roberta Wiggins617 [email protected]
