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Creating the Equation for Growth
Creating the Equation for Growth
Growth Opportunities in Wind Energy
Market
November 30, 2010
Presented by: Norman Timmins, Director Of Consulting
Creating the Equation for Growth2
Table of Contents
• Wind Energy Snapshot
• Market Opportunities in Wind Energy Market
• Lucintel Solutions to Improve Your Long Term Position in Wind
Market
• About Lucintel and its team
• Next Steps
Creating the Equation for Growth3
Executive Summary
• Global wind energy market growing at a 27% (CAGR) last 5 years and
forecast to grow at double digits over next 5 years
• Lucintel estimates wind turbine market to cross US$ 100 billion by
2015
• Wind energy market will require technical innovation to make wind
more competitive vs. other forms of energy
• Increase in turbine size and longer blades are driving penetration of
high performance materials such as carbon fiber
• Global wind market witnessed significant fall in 2010 because of
economic slowdown in U.S and Europe but with future recovery in
works
Creating the Equation for Growth4
Table of Contents
• Wind Energy Snapshot
• Market Opportunities in Wind Energy Market
• Lucintel Solutions to Improve Your Long Term Position in Wind
Market
• About Lucintel and its team
• Next Steps
Creating the Equation for Growth5
Wind Market Opportunities
• Wind market provides opportunities for growth for material suppliers, blade
makers and various component makers
• Lucintel estimates: market for composite materials such as fiber, resin, core,
adhesive, etc. will reach ~$4 billion in 2014.
• Governments across the world are making a strong push to make wind a
significant source of energy
• U.S. wind market is expected to fall in 2010 but expected to recover
• Chinese government is raising the country's wind power capacity to 100
GW by 2020 .It is expected that China will surface goal before 2020.
• Lucintel growth strategy consulting can help your company position into this
globally competitive market space to benefit and drive future long term growth
opportunities
Creating the Equation for Growth
Growth in Wind brings forth Opportunity and Challenges
66
Source: Lucintel analysis
Global Cumulative MW Key Insights
• Move towards high capacity
turbines
• Highly concentrated market with
high bargaining powers of OEMs
• Rapid growth in energy deficient
APAC markets. Challenges in US
• Legislative support across the
globe for clean energy sources
and technologies
• Wind is driving innovation
across the value chain as it
seeks to improve costs
Lucintel can help you understand what opportunities exist to
improve your company’s profitability in this fast paced
market!
Creating the Equation for Growth
US wind market is expected to fall in 2010 but with future recovery in
the works
4Q 20093Q 20092Q20091Q 2009
4.500
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q20104Q 20083Q 2008 4Q20102Q20101Q2010
Forecast
New
US
MW
In
sta
llatio
ns
Challenges as overall wind market expected to
decline in 2010
• 3-4% drop in energy demand has a multiplier effect on new
capacity projects which are 50% renewable
• Fall of natural gas prices affecting wind competitiveness
• Connectivity issues impacting new projects
• Lack of robust long term federal targets renewable energy
continues to impact investor confidence and credit availability
• State level targets are still well into the future
Solutions
• Demand to grow with renewed economic vigor with
EIA forecasting 2% CAGR in next 5 years for overall
demand in energy
• Forecasted 7% CAGR in natural gas prices in 5 Yrs
• Texas and China leading way to new connectivity
• Political support for renewables expected to remain
7
Creating the Equation for Growth
Wind expected to remain attractive in terms of size, growth rate and
cost competitiveness
Wind
Biomass Solar PV
Solar
Thermal
8
As Wind is Renewable Driver
Wind is Cost Competitive . . .
With a Sustainable Growth Record
• Demand to grow with renewed economic
vigor with EIA forecasting US 2% CAGR in
next 5 years for overall demand in energy
• Forecasted 7% CAGR in natural gas prices
in 5 Yrs
• Texas and China leading new connectivity
• Political support for renewables expected
to remain across globe
. . .with Solid Growth & Strong Base
Creating the Equation for Growth
+
–
–
+
Win
d e
nerg
y p
ote
ntial
Percentage of wind energy penetration vs. potential
Indonesia
South Africa
Mexico
India
Germany
Brazil
Russia
Key Insights
• Both the US and China show strong potential
and low current penetration
• Russia has high potential but currently share
of wind is <1 percent due to availability of
alternate energy sources,
• PROFINA program is expected to drive wind
power sector in Brazil
• PROFINA targets 5000 MW installation
by 2015
• Germany, widely considered a leading
economy in adopting wind energy is currently
at 30% penetration
Why Wind: even in highly developed wind markets such as
Germany, penetration relative to potential is low while big markets
such as USA and China have very low penetration levels
USA
China
9
Creating the Equation for Growth10
Lucintel Analysis
Heavier blades (1980’s)
Trends towards
lighter blades –
carbon fiber (2000’s)
Next generation
blades (2012+)
Trends Driving Opportunities
• Need for improved wind energy
cost competitiveness driving
longer blade lengths
• Better mechanical properties
holds the key for more market
penetration of composites
• Increased load and stress driving
need for new materials and
design philosophy
What are right:
• Products & Specifications?
• Segments & Positioning?
• Geography & Value
Chain?
How can you and your company be best placed to drive wind
opportunities?
Blades during 1990’s
Blade material evolution
Creating the Equation for Growth11
Table of Contents
• Executive Summary
• Market Opportunities for Composites in Wind Energy Market
• Lucintel Solutions to Improve Your Long Term Position in Wind
Market
• About Lucintel and its team
• Next Steps
Creating the Equation for Growth
Lucintel has an extensive toolkit to address common questions on
expanding focus within wind
12
WIND
Market Entry
Voice of Customer
Product Benchmark
Procurement Optimization
M&A
Plant Optimization
Opportunity Screening
• Is market space / opportunity of current
product offerings sufficiently robust?
• Wind is focus for many: how can my
company profitably differentiate?
• Based on our core skills, where should
we focus?
• Should we build or buy? Is build even an
option?
• What game changer actions exist and/or
is a more incremental approach best?
• What is the order sequence of market
entry segments / products?
Key Questions
Creating the Equation for Growth
In-depth Opportunity Scanning for rapid revenue growth
+
–
–
+
Ma
rket G
row
th
Profitability
Source: BCG casework
Wind Tower:
Wind Blade:
Gear box:
Yaw system : Rotor Hub:
Rotor bearings:
Power converter:
Transformer:
Main shaft:
Main frame:
Brake system:
Nacelle housing:
Illustrative
Creating the Equation for Growth
Our Deep Experience in Wind and Wind MRO complements our
strengths in wind
14
• Insightful reports on wind market by Lucintel:1. Top 5 Global Wind Gearbox Manufacturers: May 2010
2. Top 5 North American ISP’s in Wind O&M Market, May 2010
3. Top 5 Global Independent Wind Blade Manufacturers, May 2010
4. Wind Cost Competitiveness vs. Alternative Energy Sources, June 2010
5. Future Material Needs for the Global Wind Energy Market, 2009-2014,
May 2009
6. Growth Opportunities in Wind Energy Market 2009-2014: Materials,
Market and Technologies, May 2009
7. Opportunity Assessment for Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul in the
Global Wind Energy Market, 2008-2013, January 2009
• In depth custom projects in wind market for small to fortune
500 clients:1. Market size and market entry
2. Product benchmarking
3. Material usage, lifespan and durability
4. Customer & competitive Profiling
• +1,000 primaries realized in last year in wind & wind MRO1. Realized across the supply chain from wind farms to OEM’s to blade
manufacturers to material suppliers
Creating the Equation for Growth
Extensive Market Potential and Benchmarking Experience
throughout wind energy value chain. . .
15
• Regional: Feasibility study of carbon fiber plant for a
Eurasian nation with market potential, entry strategy and
customer lists
• Wind: Market validation and entry strategy for parts /
solutions provider into wind
• Strategic business plan: Multi-million dollar investment
analysis and business strategy for wind market entry
• Forecast Due Diligence: Revenue validation due
diligence for carbon fiber parts manufacturer and an
Acquisition Due Diligence for a major OEM purchasing
• Benchmarking: Product benchmarking and market
potential for early stage “stealth mode” pre-market resin
Creating the Equation for Growth
. . . As well as deep expertise on the technology and optimal plant
location, technology and processes
16
• Deep understanding of process: RTM, hand lay up,
VARTM, Filament winding, pultrusion, autoclave and
prepreg layup, among others
• Materials and Processes: Material requirements,
optimal processes and effective design to build strategies
• Technology due diligence: Plant layout, technology
obsolescence and team effectiveness
• Feature / Value evaluation: Cost and benefit to
customer of features for optimal product design and
profitability
Creating the Equation for Growth17
Table of Contents
• Wind Energy Snapshot
• Market Opportunities for Composites in Wind Energy Market
• Lucintel Solutions to Improve Your Long Term Position in Wind
Market
• About Lucintel and its team
• Next Steps
Creating the Equation for Growth18
Lucintel is the leading global management consulting & market
research firm for aerospace, marine, wind, construction, consumer
goods, transportation, chemical, and composites
Lucintel creates your equation for growth and is committed to
actionable results that deliver significant value and long term growth
to our clients
Lucintel has been creating measurable value for over 10 years and
for more than 1,000 clients in 70 + countries worldwide
Visit http://www.lucintel.com/imovie/ for a short 3.5-minute movie on
Lucintel solutions
About Lucintel
Creating the Equation for Growth
Research Methodology: Lucintel converts unsystematic data from
primary and secondary research into client specific solutions…
19
Creating the Equation for Growth
Research Methodology: Primary Research drives our insight…
20
Interviews by Industry Member
0 2 4 6 8 10
Supplier
Producer/Dist
End User
Govt. Agency
Military
Industry Expert
Aerospace
Sport
Interviews by Job Title
0 2 4 6 8 10
Consultant
President/CEO
Biz Mgr / Dir.
Technical Dir.
Research Mgr.
Product Manager.
Military Officer
Creating the Equation for Growth
. . . with Project Teams with an appropriate mix between technical
and business expertise for results that drive the bottom line
Senior level consultants and analysts
PhDs, MBAs, MS in Market Research
Masters level engineers
Scientists and Industry experts
Past projects ranging from start up to multi-national Fortune 500
companies.
21
Creating the Equation for Growth22
V.Vinu, Account Manager, Lucintel
Vinu is a Sales Account Manager for Lucintel with two years of sales
management experience as a Sales and Relationship Manager at ICICI Bank,
one of India’s top ranked bank in India. He holds an MBA in Marketing and
Information Technology from the Indira School of Career Studies, Pune and a
Bachelor’s degree in Commerce. With, Relationship Management as a
strength, he is very keen to help his customers achieve their organizational
goals
Lucintel Management Team
Chuck Kazmierski, Project Manager
Senior Analyst and Project Manager for Lucintel, with 20 years of diverse
experience in market research, opportunity screening, value based management,
voice of the customer, value chain analysis, and market structure analysis. Over
10 years of experience with resin and composites industry. Former marketing
research professional with Dow Chemical, encompassing a succession of
increasingly responsible positions in market research and business intelligence,
including business unit research analyst, research manager for business analysis
team, subject matter expert in marketing research expertise center, and internal
business/ marketing consultant.
Creating the Equation for Growth
Lucintel Management Team
Alan Clark, FInstSMM, Sales Director - Aerospace,Defense & EnergyWith over 30 years work experience in manufacturing covering senior sales
and commercial roles he has successfully negotiated many major contracts
throughout the world. Prior to Lucintel, Alan worked for many leading
Aerospace companies including BAE Systems, Goodrich, Meggitt,
Doncasters and PCC (AETC) covering complex systems, supply chain
solutions, component and process sales. Alan has been responsible for
developing and implementing innovative Market Strategies leading to
substantial profitable growth.
Major strengths: profitable growth, contract negotiation, market and win
strategies, mentoring and coaching.
Alan is a Fellow of the Institute of Sales & Marketing Management. Alan
believes in the importance of a strong corporate Vision backed by a robust
and validated Market Strategy to excel in an ever changing Market
environment.
Creating the Equation for Growth24
.
Norman Timmins, MBA, Director of Consulting Norman is Director of Consulting for Lucintel with over 20 years work experience
in B2B marketing, consulting, energy and transportation.
Consulting Experience: Prior to Lucintel, Norman worked for Boston
Consulting Group and Bain Consulting, managing consulting projects for
Fortune 500 companies. Sample projects include:
• Feature Value and growth strategy for White Goods for Fortune 100 Company
• Growth and Cost Optimization Project for Fortune 100 Transportation Company
• Procurement Strategy and Negotiations for near bankrupt technology firm
Business Development Experience in Developing Economies: Worked for
DHL Express as Country Director of Corporate Strategy while directly managing
urgent and highly successful turnaround of a +350 retail storefronts. Also served
as Senior Manager for Business Development for PMI in Mexico achieving
company record for sales margins while managing firm’s most profitable account.
Major strengths: strategic consulting, growth strategies, value based
management, profit improvement and market research. Norman received his
MBA with honors from Wharton and his BA with honors from Brown University.
Lucintel Management Team
Creating the Equation for Growth
Sanjay Mazumdar, PhD, CEO
With a global consulting experience spanning over 10 years, Dr. Sanjay
Mazumdar has been leading Lucintel for the past ten years on projects as
diverse as growth consulting, due diligence, value chain strategy and
opportunity analysis providing actionable and cost-effective market
intelligence, consulting and insights, to over 700 global customers. To date,
Dr. Mazumdar has been instrumental in leading and executing over 100
consulting projects for OEMs, Tier 1, Tier 2 and material suppliers across
aerospace, marine, wind energy, transportation and sporting goods market for
Lucintel, and remains the first choice consultant for global companies
worldwide.
Sanjay holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering and additional training in
Strategic Management from M.I.T. Boston with strong general management
qualifications in strategic planning, project development, sales and marketing,
budgeting, goal setting, trouble shooting and capital improvement. He has
also authored a highly endorsed book titled “Composites Manufacturing,
Materials, Products and Process Engineering” as well as published more
than 25 technical papers in the international journals and conference
proceedings.
Lucintel Management Team
Creating the Equation for Growth
Lucintel’s Unique Capability for Your Project
Lucintel’s focus is in advance materials and components and has extensive
experience in wind energy, aerospace, marine, construction and
automotive markets
• No Learning Curve - Deep industry knowledge and insight
• Quality, Accuracy & Depth
• Speed to Market - Time Savings
• Cost Savings
• Neutral Third Party Position for better market info access and interpretation
Continuous networking with your whole value chain including customers,
suppliers and competitors.
Access to vital, hard to find insights through detailed primary and secondary
research and analysis. Incomparable data accuracy and integrity.
26
Creating the Equation for Growth27
Table of Contents
• Wind Energy Snapshot
• Market Opportunities for Composites in Wind Energy Market
• Lucintel Solutions to Improve Your Long Term Position in Wind
Market
• About Lucintel and its team
• Next Steps
Creating the Equation for Growth
Alan Clark, FInstSMM
Director of Sales
Email : [email protected]
UK Cell: +44. 7875.708825
Customer Service
Email: [email protected]
Tel. : +1-972-636-5056
Norman Timmins, MBA
Director of Consulting
Email: [email protected]
Cell: +1-940-597-3786
Chuck Kazmierski
Project Manager
Email: [email protected]
Tel: +1-972-620-8888 (Office)
Contact Information
28
Contact Alan Clark at [email protected] or Tel. +44. 7875.708825 for further detail or to discuss your project opportunity.