100331 Wpg Mayoral Race

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NEWS RELEASEWinnipeg Mayoral Race, March 2010

INCUMBENT MAYOR ON SOLID GROUND

But With 36% Support, Judy Wasylycia-Leis Is Sam Katz sStrongest Potential Challenger

Winnipeg Six months before Winnipeggers head to the polls to elect a new

mayor and council, incumbent Winnipeg Mayor Sam Katz enjoys a double-digitlead over a crowded field of potential rivals, a new Probe Research Inc. survey

conducted exclusively for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals.

While the survey of 603 Winnipeg adults reveals that approximately one-half of

decided voters (51%) would re-elect Mr. Katz in October 2010, more than one-in-

three voters (36%) would cast a ballot for current Winnipeg North NDP Member

of Parliament Judy Wasylycia-Leis in the event that she decides to enter the

mayoral race. With this level of support, Ms. Wasylycia-Leis is the strongest

potential challenger to Mr. Katz among those who have expressed interest in

running against the incumbent mayor or whose names have been suggested as

potential candidates.

Fewer than one-in-ten voters indicated that they would vote for current

Transcona city councillor Russ Wyatt (7%), Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce

president Dave Angus (5%) or current Elmwood-East Kildonan city councillor

Lillian Thomas (2%) who is the only one amongst these potential challengers

who has officially announced her candidacy. Twenty-seven percent of surveyed

Winnipeg adults were unwilling or unable to indicate which of these individuals

they would vote for in the upcoming mayoral race.


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Hypothetical Winnipeg Mayoral Race

Base: All Respondents

The next civic election in Winnipeg will be held in October of this year. Based on how you feel right now,

which of the following potential candidates for Mayor of Winnipeg would you be most likely to vote for in the

upcoming civic election?(n=603)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Sam Katz Judy Wasylycia-Leis Russ Wyatt Dave Angus Lillian Thomas

51%

36%

7%5%

2%

Katz Leads In South W innipeg; Statistically Tied in Core, NorthwestExamining at the survey results on a regional basis reveals that the incumbent

mayor enjoys a significant lead over his rivals in the southern portion of the city,

but that a hypothetical civic election contest between Mr. Katz and Ms.

Wasylycia-Leis would be competitive in northwest Winnipeg and in the citys

Core Area.

As the table below illustrates, Mr. Katz has the backing of more than two-thirds of

the electorate in southeast Winnipeg (68%, versus 23% for Ms. Wasylycia-Leis) and

more than one-half of decided voters in southwest Winnipeg (58%, versus 32% for

Ms. Wasylycia-Leis). Mr. Katz is also the first choice for nearly one-half of voters in

northeast Winnipeg (47%), although Transcona city councillor Russ Wyatt who

represents this area would receive votes from more than one-quarter of


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decided voters in this area (27%), with 22 percent of voters expressing support for

Ms. Wasylycia-Leis.

In northwest Winnipeg which encompasses the area Ms. Wasylycia-Leis

represents in the federal Parliament Ms. Wasylycia-Leis and Mr. Katz are

statistically tied in support (48% for Ms. Wasylycia-Leis versus 41% for Mr. Katz). This

is also the case in the Core area, where 48 percent would vote for Ms.

Wasylycia-Leis and 43 percent prefer Mr. Katz.

HYPOTHETICAL WINNIPEG MAYORAL RACENet Voting Intentions Among Decided Voters

March 2010

The next civic election will be held in October of this year. Based on how you feel right now,

which of the following potential candidates for Mayor of Winnipeg would you be most likely to

vote for in the next civic election?

TotalREGION

Northwest Northeast Southeast Southwest Core

(Base)(603)

(%)

(141)

(%)

(111)

(%)

(93)*

(%)

(139)

(%)

(120)

(%)

Sam Katz 51 41 47 68 58 43

Judy Wasylycia-Leis 36 48 22 23 32 48

Russ Wyatt 7 2 27 3 2 2

Dave Angus 5 8 3 1 9 4Lillian Thomas 2 2 1 4 - 2

*Caution: Small Base


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Katz Backers Vs. Wasylycia-Leis Supporters A Study In ContrastsBoth the incumbent mayor and the person perceived to be his main challenger

would draw upon very different bases of support should they face one another

in the October municipal election.

Mr. Katzs political advantage heading into a municipal election is that he draws

more support from men (54%, versus only 29% of male voters who prefer Ms.

Wasylycia-Leis), younger adults (60%, versus 27% for Ms. Wasylycia-Leis) and more

affluent voters (53% of those with household incomes greater than $80,000/year,

versus 27% who would cast ballots for Ms. Wasylycia-Leis).

Both candidates were virtually tied in their support among older voters (46% of

those aged 55 years and over support Ms. Wasylycia-Leis, versus 43% who prefer

Mr. Katz), middle-income earners (43% of those earning $30,000-$59,999/year

support Ms. Wasylycia-Leis, compared to 42% who would vote for Mr. Katz) and

women (43% support Ms. Wasylycia-Leis, though 47% of female voters indicate

that they prefer Mr. Katz).

Importantly, there is a partisan divide between the candidates. Individuals who

would vote for the provincial Progressive Conservative party are far more likely to

prefer Mr. Katz (71%, versus just 14% who would vote for Ms. Wasylycia-Leis, 9%

who would back Mr. Wyatt and 5% who would cast ballots for Mr. Angus). Voters

who prefer the provincial New Democratic Party, on the other hand, are slightly

more likely to prefer a representative of their preferred party in Ms. Wasylycia-Leis

over Mr. Katz (49% versus 40% respectively). Those who support the provincial

Liberals are slightly more likely to back Mr. Katz over Ms. Wasylycia-Leis (53%

versus 33% respectively), with 14 percent of these voters indicating they would

cast ballots for Mr. Angus.


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HYPOTHETICAL WINNIPEG MAYORAL RACENet Voting Intentions Among Decided Voters

March 2010

The next civic election will be held in October of this year. Based on how you feel right now,which of the following potential candidates for Mayor of Winnipeg would you be most likely to

vote for in the next civic election?

TotalGENDER AGE

Men Women 18-34 35-54 55+

(Base)(603)

(%)

(288)

(%)

(315)

(%)

(175)

(%)

(230)

(%)

(167)

(%)

Sam Katz 51 54 47 60 49 43

Judy Wasylycia-Leis 36 29 43 27 35 46

Russ Wyatt 7 8 5 5 8 5

Dave Angus 5 7 3 8 5 5

Lillian Thomas 2 2 1 - 3 2

Total

PROVINCIAL VOTING

INTENTIONHOUSEHOLD INCOME

NDP PC Liberal


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For more information on this survey, please contact:

Scott MacKayPresident,

Probe Research Inc.Suite 850-125 Garry Street,

Winnipeg, ManitobaR3C 3P2Tel.: 926-6567

Cell: (204) 955-9777Fax: 926-6566

E-mail:[email protected]

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mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

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100331 Wpg Mayoral Race