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100-Meter Dash Olympic Winning Times: Will Women Be As Fast As Men?
The 100 Meter Dash has been an Olympic event since its very establishment in 1896(1928 for women). The reigning 100-meter Olympic champion is often named "the fastest man or woman in the world" and as such the event is extremely vital to the competitive nature the Olympics entails. The winning times of men have always been less than those for women, but the discrepancies between the winning times appear to be decreasing. It would be interesting to determine if there are patterns in these winning times, and, if so, use these patterns to predict future winning times and also to predict when the winning time for women would be the same as that for men. Table 1 below shows the 100 Meter Dash winning times for both men and women. These data are obtained from http://trackandfield.about.com. The 2012 winning time for women was missing from this site and so was obtained from http://bleacherreport.com.
Olympic Winning Times Since 1948
Year Men’s Winning Time(s) Women’s Winning Times(s)
1948 10.3 12.2
1952 10.79 11.67
1956 10.62 11.82
1960 10.32 11.18
1964 10.06 11.49
1968 9.95 11.08
1972 10.14 11.07
1976 10.06 11.08
1980 10.25 11.06
1984 9.99 10.97
1988 9.92 10.54
1992 9.96 10.82
1996 9.84 10.94
2000 9.87 11.12
2004 9.85 10.93
2008 9.69 10.78
2012 9.63 10.75 Sources: (1) http://trackandfield.about.com/od/sprintsandrelays/qt/olym100medals.htm (2) http://trackandfield.about.com/od/sprintsandrelays/qt/olym100women.htm, (3) http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1285209-olympic-track-2012-100-dash-final-leaves-us-looking-for-gold
Towards establishing patterns in these data, each year will replaced by the number of years since 1948 so that the numbers become smaller and easier to handle.
Trends in the Men’s Winning Times The men’s winning times are shown again in the table on the left below with the years replaced by the numbers of years since 1948. Since the winning times are attained at certain years, it is proper to consider the number of years since 1948 as the independent variable and the winning time as the dependent variable. These variables will correspondingly be represented by symbols x and y. A hand drawn scatter plot is also presented on the right side, and the technology generated scatter plot, using Microsoft excel, is presented underneath them. Years since
1948 Winning Time(s)
0 10.3
4 10.79
8 10.62
12 10.32
16 10.06
20 9.95
24 10.14
28 10.06
32 10.25
36 9.99
40 9.92
44 9.96
48 9.84
52 9.87
56 9.85
60 9.69
64 9.63
9.4
9.6
9.8
10
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.8
11
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Win
nin
g T
ine
s (s
)
Years (1948 = 0 )
Mens Olympic 100 Meter Dash Winning Times since 1948
The table and scatter plots clearly indicate that the winning times for men are generally decreasing. There appears to be a linear pattern in the graph; though not all the points fall on a straight line, it seems reasonable to consider a line around which the points cluster. This pattern is more clearly observed in the second half of the data points. If a ‘best’ such line can be found, then it can provide a good basis for predicting future winning times. Fortunately, a method called least-squares can find the ‘best’ line, and Microsoft excel obtains this equation as 49100130 .. xy . When drawn on the scatter
plots, the following graphs are obtained:
y = -0.013x + 10.49 R² = 0.73653
9.4
9.6
9.8
10
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.8
11
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Win
nin
g T
ine
s (s
)
Years (1948 = 0 )
Mens Olympic 100 Meter Dash Winning Times since 1948
This line has a slope of -0.013 and a y-intercept of 10.49. The slope indicates that there is an average yearly decrease of 0.013 second in the men’s winning time from 1948 to 2012. The y-intercept indicates an initial (1948, when x=0) winning time of 10.49 seconds; this is of course not true as the 1948 winning time is 10.3 seconds. But then again this inconsistency is due to the fact that the points do not all fall on the line 49100130 .. xy .
This linear function has a domain of 640 xx . This restricted domain is
due to the fact that the ‘best’ line is only made for the values of x that are used, and the previous table used for the scatter plot shows these values to be from 0 to 64. The corresponding range consists of the y-values covered by the graph for the given domain. Since, for x = 0, 4910491000130 ... y and, for x=64,
65894910640130 ... y , the range is 49106589 .. yy .
Trends in the Women’s Winning Times The women’s winning times are shown in the table on the left below together with the number of years since 1948. Once again the number of years since 1948 will be the independent variable and the winning time as the dependent variable, and correspondingly represented by symbols x and y. The hand drawn scatter plot and the technology generated scatter plot are likewise presented. Years since
1948 Winning Times(s)
0 12.2
4 11.67
8 11.82
12 11.18
16 11.49
20 11.08
24 11.07
28 11.08
32 11.06
36 10.97
40 10.54
44 10.82
48 10.94
52 11.12
56 10.93
60 10.78
64 10.75
The winning times for women are also generally decreasing. A straight line pattern also appears to exist, and microsoft excel can again be made to determine the ’best’ line through the points. This is found to be
6891101690 .. xy . When drawn on the scatter plots, the following graphs are
obtained:
10.4
10.6
10.8
11
11.2
11.4
11.6
11.8
12
12.2
12.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Win
nin
g T
ine
s (s
)
Years (1948 = 0 )
Womens Olympic 100 Meter Dash Winning Times since 1948
The slope of this best line is -0.0169 and the y-intercept is 11.689. As stated earlier, the slope indicates an average annual decrease of 0.0169 second in the women’s winning times, and the y-intercept indicates an initial (in 1948, when x = 0) winning time of 11.689 seconds. Of course, the actual winning time of 12.2 seconds in 1948 shows that the ‘best’ line is in error, but this is once again attributed to the fact that the data points do not all fall on one line so that the ‘best’ line 6891101690 .. xy can be in error from the actual points.
This linear function has a domain of 640 xx . As explained earlier, this is
due to the fact that the ‘best’ line is only made for the values of x that are used. Since, for x = 0, 6891168911001690 ... y and, for x=64,
607410689116401690 ... y , the range is 68911607410 .. yy .
Forecasts With the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro coming up, the big question is how can these formulae be used to predict the winning times. This is actually simple. Since, in the equations, x represents the number of years since 1948, then, for 2016, x = 2016 – 1948 = 68. Substitute 68 for x in the equations to predict the winning times for 2016. For the men’s winning time: 60694910680130 ... y seconds
For the women’s winning time: 539810689116801690 ... y seconds
y = -0.0169x + 11.689 R² = 0.65236
10.4
10.6
10.8
11
11.2
11.4
11.6
11.8
12
12.2
12.4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Win
nin
g T
ine
s (s
)
Years (1948 = 0 )
Womens Olympic 100 Meter Dash Winning Times since 1948
The men are still predicted to be faster than the women. However, the slopes of the two lines are worth considering. Since women’s times are predicted to fall faster (at an average of 0.0169 second each year) than the men’s times (at an average of 0.013 second each year), then at some time in the future the winning times will be the same for both men and women. The figure below, using the software Graph 4.4, extends the time frame of the two equations, enough to display the point of intersection of the men’s and women’s lines. The blue line is for the women’s winning times, and the red line is for the men’s winning times.
This figure shows that 307.4 years from 1948, or about the year 2255, men’s and women’s winning times will be the same at 6.49 seconds. After that time, women’s winning times are predicted to be less than for the men. Algebraically, this point of intersection can be obtained by solving the two equations simultaneously. The method of substitution can be used to achieve the result. This is shown below.
{49100130 .. xy
6891101690 .. xy
496
4910004
4910443070130
44307
00390
1991
199100390
491068911016900130
689110169049100130
.
..
...
.
.
.
..
....
....
y
x
x
x
xx
xx
The point of intersection is found algebraically to be (307.44,6.49) which agrees with the coordinates found from the graph. A Different Point of View Some experts believe that the running times would be better modelled if exponential functions were used. This belief stems from the idea that constant and rigorous training can always drastically alter running times. However it is also considered that human stamina has its limits so that even if running times are really exponential in nature, such times will tend towards a limiting value. Taking into account this belief and the limitations of human stamina, an
exponential equation of the form: caby x may be fitted to the data for both
men’s and women’s times. In this form: c represents the minimum running time any person can reach (in seconds) a represents the initial number of seconds above the limit attained in 1948. b represent the rate of decay of the running times. No exponential regression allows for a ‘c’ in the equation, all these models have only abx. Given this condition the value of ‘c’ can first be specified by looking at the running times. For the men the times are above 9 seconds, so it would be reasonable to assume a limit of c = 9 seconds. With this in consideration, the data will now be adjusted to consider only the times above this limit:
Adjusted Men’s Olympic Winning Times since 1948 Years since
1948 Winning Times
(sec) Adjusted Times
(sec)
0 10.3 1.3
4 10.79 1.79
8 10.62 1.62
12 10.32 1.32
16 10.06 1.06
20 9.95 0.95
24 10.14 1.14
28 10.06 1.06
32 10.25 1.25
36 9.99 0.99
40 9.92 0.92
44 9.96 0.96
48 9.84 0.84
52 9.87 0.87
56 9.85 0.85
60 9.69 0.69
64 9.63 0.63
Exponential regression can now performed on the adjusted times. Since Microsoft excel does not provide results in the form abx , the graphics display
calculator TI-84 is instead used. The resulting equation is xy 99805261 .. .
After allowing for the limiting time of 9 seconds the final equation is:
999805261 xxf .. .
The same approach can be adapted for the women’s times. Looking at the data it also appears that the value 9 for ‘c’ appears to be reasonable. This value is preferred for consistency with the previous regression, and so that the results can be compared. The corresponding adjusted times are:
Adjusted Women’s Olympic Winning Times since 1948 Years since
1948 Winning Times
(sec) Adjusted Times
(sec)
0 12.2 3.2
4 11.67 2.67
8 11.82 2.82
12 11.18 2.18
16 11.49 2.49
20 11.08 2.08
24 11.07 2.07
28 11.08 2.08
32 11.06 2.06
36 10.97 1.97
40 10.54 1.54
44 10.82 1.82
48 10.94 1.94
52 11.12 2.12
56 10.93 1.93
60 10.78 1.78
64 10.75 1.75
Again using the TI-84 graphics calculator, the regression on the running times
yields the equation xy 99306782 .. . Allowing for the ‘c’ value, the derived
equation is 999306782 xxf .. .
To determine if these two functions for running times will intersect, an algebraic method can be performed.
{ 999306782
xxf ..
999805261 xxf ..
2195359610
999306782
2195359210
999805261
9776431111
0050352471
754914811
7549148110050352471
7549148110050352471
7549148110050352471
99305261
99306782
99305261
99805261
9930678299805261
999306782999805261
9776431111
9776431111
.
..
.
..
.
.log
.log
.log.log
.log.log
..
..
..
..
..
....
....
.
.
y
or
y
y
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
xx
xx
This solution indicates that 111.98 years from 1948, or around the year2060, men’s and women’s winning running times will be the same at 10.22 seconds. In summary, it is certainly enlightening to consider the possibility that women can run as fast as men at some time in the future. The analysis of the running times for men and women in all the Olympics 100 meter dash events since 1948 can attest to that possibility. The fact that women’s running times are falling at a faster rate than the men’s times certainly leads to the conclusion that, indeed, it may at some time be that women can run as fast as men.
