Update of Projection of Future Student Populations for Planning Purposes

March 9, 2016

10-Year Enrollment Study

Multiple Sources of Data* Live birth data and its correlation to kindergarten and

1st grade enrollment five and six years later* Individual school by year and grade enrollment

patterns/ES-MS-HS feeder patterns* Attendance zones changes/history* Census tract population data by age group

Single- and multi-family building permit history in Cobb, Acworth, Austell, Kennesaw, Powder Springs, and Smyrna

* New home sales and existing home re-sales* Subdivision additions

METHODOLOGY

Population Data

Projected

Source: Ga. Department of Public Health

9222

9658

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS

Source: Census Data

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

MULTI-FAMILY BUILDING PERMIT UNITS

Source: Census Data

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

TOTAL BUILDING PERMIT UNITS

Source: Census Data

Economic Indicators - Housing & Development

Economic Indicators – “Underwater” Mortgages

40+%25-40%15-25%0-15%

Source: Zillow

National Average: 16.9%

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High

Allatoona HS 98 1,912 9-12 1,770 142 92.57% 1,757 1,757 155 91.89%

Campbell HS 135 2,637 9-12 2,669 -32 101.21% 2,658 2,658 -21 100.80%

Harrison HS 133 2,587 9-12 1,990 597 76.92% 1,911 1,911 676 73.87%

Hillgrove HS 98 1,912 9-12 2,404 -492 125.73% 2,554 2,554 -642 133.58%

Kell HS 98 1,912 9-12 1,483 429 77.56% 1,664 1,664 248 87.03%

Kennesaw Mtn 102 1,987 9-12 2,170 -183 109.21% 2,213 2,213 -226 111.37%

Lassiter HS 110 2,137 9-12 2,176 -39 101.82% 2,354 2,354 -217 110.15%

McEachern HS 122 2,362 9-12 2,342 20 99.15% 2,375 2,375 -13 100.55%

North Cobb 143 2,787 9-12 2,854 -67 102.40% 3,028 3,028 -241 108.65%

Osborne HS 106 2,062 9-12 1,967 95 95.39% 2,013 2,013 49 97.62%

Pebblebrook HS 96 1,862 9-12 2,524 -662 135.55% 2,630 2,630 -768 141.25%

Pope HS 99 1,912 9-12 1,982 -70 103.66% 2,079 2,079 -167 108.73%

South Cobb HS 134 2,612 9-12 2,050 562 78.48% 2,134 2,134 478 81.70%

Sprayberry 106 2,062 9-12 1,759 303 85.31% 1,849 1,849 213 89.67%

Walton HS 122 2,362 9-12 2,710 -348 114.73% 2,798 2,798 -436 118.46%

Wheeler HS 112 2,187 9-12 2,161 26 98.81% 2,178 2,178 9 99.59%

High School Total 1814 35,292 35,011 281 99.20% 36,195 0 36,195 -903 102.56%

2.25.16

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Middle

Awtrey MS 63 911 6-8 826 85 90.67% 841 841 70 92.32%

Barber MS 71 1,046 6-8 960 86 91.78% 941 941 105 89.96%

Campbell MS 82 1,203 6-8 1,437 -234 119.45% 1,521 1,521 -318 126.43%

Cooper MS 71 1,046 6-8 944 102 90.25% 935 935 111 89.39%

Daniell MS 69 1,046 6-8 943 103 90.15% 967 967 79 92.45%

Dickerson MS 73 1,068 6-8 1,279 -211 119.76% 1,307 1,307 -239 122.38%

Dodgen MS 71 1,046 6-8 1,251 -205 119.60% 1,291 1,291 -245 123.42%

Durham MS 70 1,046 6-8 1,038 8 99.24% 1,055 1,055 -9 100.86%

East Cobb MS 83 1,226 6-8 1,230 -4 100.33% 1,219 1,219 7 99.43%

Floyd MS 72 1,046 6-8 971 75 92.83% 973 973 73 93.02%

Garrett MS 60 867 6-8 907 -40 104.61% 979 979 -112 112.92%

Griffin MS 71 1,046 6-8 1,211 -165 115.77% 1,341 1,341 -295 128.20%

Hightower Trail MS 62 911 6-8 1,078 -167 118.33% 1,094 1,094 -183 120.09%

Lindley MS 121 1,754 6-8 1,666 88 94.98% 1,679 1,679 75 95.72%

Lost Mountain MS 71 1,046 6-8 1,064 -18 101.72% 1,074 1,074 -28 102.68%

Lovinggood MS 71 1,046 6-8 1,353 -307 129.35% 1,400 1,400 -354 133.84%

Mabry MS 70 1,023 6-8 889 134 86.90% 913 913 110 89.25%

McCleskey MS 58 843 6-8 704 139 83.51% 712 712 131 84.46%

McClure MS 71 1,046 6-8 1,203 -157 115.01% 1,178 1,178 -132 112.62%

Palmer MS 71 1,046 6-8 1,019 27 97.42% 960 960 86 91.78%

Pine Mountain MS 57 820 6-8 616 204 75.12% 596 596 224 72.68%

Simpson MS 59 865 6-8 952 -87 110.06% 955 955 -90 110.40%

Smitha MS 70 1,023 6-8 966 57 94.43% 972 972 51 95.01%

Tapp MS 70 1,023 6-8 782 241 76.44% 774 774 249 75.66%

Middle School Total 1707 25,043 25,289 -246 100.98% 25,677 0 25,677 -634 102.53%

2.25.16

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Elementary

Acworth/McCall 97 1,318 PK-5 1,085 233 82.32% 1,053 17 1,070 248 81.18%

Addison 40 626 PK-5 617 9 98.56% 557 6 563 63 89.94%

Arglye 36 413 PK-5 405 8 98.06% 426 5 431 -18 104.36%

Austell 36 527 PK-5 567 -40 107.59% 574 10 584 -57 110.82%

Baker 61 756 PK-5 781 -25 103.31% 729 20 749 7 99.07%

Bells Ferry 45 646 PK-5 684 -38 105.88% 701 5 706 -60 109.29%

Belmont Hills 36 414 PK-5 344 70 83.09% 345 8 353 61 85.27%

Big Shanty/Kennesaw 113 1,821 PK-5 1,357 464 74.52% 1,283 30 1,313 508 72.10%

Birney 59 818 PK-5 749 69 91.56% 746 17 763 55 93.28%

Blackwell 52 771 PK-5 707 64 91.70% 704 18 722 49 93.64%

Brumby 59 751 PK-5 1,011 -260 134.62% 1,060 6 1,066 -315 141.94%

Bryant 61 951 PK-5 989 -38 104.00% 967 14 981 -30 103.15%

Bullard 61 1,109 PK-5 882 227 79.53% 888 11 899 210 81.06%

Chalker 61 877 PK-5 639 238 72.86% 637 7 644 233 73.43%

Cheatham Hill 68 1,073 PK-5 1,088 -15 101.40% 1,101 14 1,115 -42 103.91%

Clarkdale 53 776 PK-5 698 78 89.95% 723 16 739 37 95.23%

Clay 29 353 PK-5 407 -54 115.30% 402 12 414 -61 117.28%

Compton 59 513 K-5 558 -45 108.77% 560 0 560 -47 109.16%

Davis 50 636 PK-5 572 64 89.94% 606 5 611 25 96.07%

Dowell 62 985 PK-5 1,010 -25 102.54% 882 9 891 94 90.46%

Due West 39 494 PK-5 608 -114 123.08% 582 9 591 -97 119.64%

East Side 69 1,141 PK-5 1,253 -112 109.82% 1,218 16 1,234 -93 108.15%

Eastvalley 36 532 PK-5 686 -154 128.95% 730 7 737 -205 138.53%

Fair Oaks 54 816 PK-5 954 -138 116.91% 974 15 989 -173 121.20%

Ford 52 805 PK-5 724 81 89.94% 698 2 700 105 86.96%

Frey 61 817 PK-5 767 50 93.88% 726 12 738 79 90.33%

Garrison Mill 43 755 PK-5 666 89 88.21% 592 15 607 148 80.40%

Green Acres 44 668 PK-5 728 -60 108.98% 735 8 743 -75 111.23%

Harmony Leland 33 478 PK-5 663 -185 138.70% 714 16 730 -252 152.72%

Hayes 61 999 PK-5 881 118 88.19% 862 25 887 112 88.79%

Hendricks 61 782 K-5 568 214 72.63% 580 0 580 202 74.17%

Hollydale 51 615 PK-5 643 -28 104.55% 652 9 661 -46 107.48%

Keheley 38 555 PK-5 527 28 94.95% 572 1 573 -18 103.24%

Kemp 61 1,004 PK-5 998 6 99.40% 1,016 14 1,030 -26 102.59%

Kincaid 48 693 PK-5 705 -12 101.73% 739 2 741 -48 106.93%

2.25.16

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King Springs 36 558 PK-5 892 -334 159.86% 878 11 889 -331 159.32%

LaBelle 44 447 PK-5 535 -88 119.69% 518 15 533 -86 119.24%

Lewis 61 1,040 PK-5 648 392 62.31% 608 18 626 414 60.19%

Mableton 61 904 K-5 1,016 -112 112.39% 1,006 0 1,006 -102 111.28%

Milford 39 472 PK-5 441 31 93.43% 439 8 447 25 94.70%

Mount Bethel 61 1,086 PK-5 1,110 -24 102.21% 1,079 1 1,080 6 99.45%

Mountain View 54 783 PK-5 827 -44 105.62% 783 17 800 -17 102.17%

Murdock 61 995 K-5 949 46 95.38% 941 0 941 54 94.57%

Nicholson 40 560 PK-5 529 31 94.46% 496 12 508 52 90.71%

Nickajack 60 1,025 PK-5 1,047 -22 102.15% 1,049 30 1,079 -54 105.27%

Norton Park 50 766 PK-5 929 -163 121.28% 926 16 942 -176 122.98%

Pickett's Mill 61 990 PK-5 732 258 73.94% 741 17 758 232 76.57%

Pitner 61 1,098 PK-5 904 194 82.33% 876 14 890 208 81.06%

Powder Springs 57 865 PK-5 793 72 91.68% 757 12 769 96 88.90%

Powers Ferry 31 423 PK-5 445 -22 105.20% 411 10 421 2 99.53%

Riverside 97 1,500 PK-5 1,920 -420 128.00% 1,899 17 1,916 -416 127.73%

Rocky Mount 38 611 PK-5 616 -5 100.82% 591 12 603 8 98.69%

Russell 61 809 PK-5 676 133 83.56% 653 23 676 133 83.56%

Sanders 53 794 PK-5 761 33 95.84% 772 13 785 9 98.87%

Sedalia Park 56 904 PK-5 871 33 96.35% 869 14 883 21 97.68%

Shallowford Falls 61 786 PK-5 636 150 80.92% 596 19 615 171 78.24%

Smyrna 61 919 PK-5 969 -50 105.44% 999 19 1,018 -99 110.77%

Sope Creek 73 1,113 PK-5 1,132 -19 101.71% 1,101 18 1,119 -6 100.54%

Still 61 803 PK-5 771 32 96.01% 717 25 742 61 92.40%

Teasley 51 771 PK-5 846 -75 109.73% 932 9 941 -170 122.05%

Timber Ridge 38 566 PK-5 606 -40 107.07% 573 9 582 -16 102.83%

Tritt 60 874 PK-5 888 -14 101.60% 824 21 845 29 96.68%

Varner 61 879 PK-5 695 184 79.07% 655 14 669 210 76.11%

Vaughan 60 1,037 PK-5 665 372 64.13% 633 21 654 383 63.07%

Elementary Total 3,497 51,666 50,370 1,296 97.49% 49,565 796 50,452 1,214 97.65%

Total for "Zoned" Schools 7,018 112,001 110,670 1,331 98.81% 111,528 796 112,324 -323 100.29%Adjusted Feb 2016

2.25.16

SUMMARY…

It should always be noted that demographic projections are subject to unanticipated economic events. To help ensure accuracy for long term planning, yearly forecasting reviews are important. This one-year update shows the original thinking has not changed. Enrollment projections for 2015-2016 were as expected, giving a confidant predictor for 2016-2017 enrollments.

The original demographic study showed a trend of declining live births. Showing a “bubble”, increased enrollment for upper middle grades and high schools, with declining elementary school enrollments. This annual update now shows a significant increase in live births that should have a direct impact with elementary enrollment beginning 2020-2021

Signs of economic recovery continue to be modest but positive. Underwater mortgages are showing strong signs of recovery.

Multi-family units show a decrease while single-family developments show an increase from the previous year.

There is a very noticeable development increase in senior adult living construction throughout the county.