3G/4G Wireless Challenges

FutureNet 2010

Wireless EvolutionV

oic

eM

ultim

edia

1980 1990 2000 2010

0G 1G

PT

T (

VH

F),

MT

S

2.4 kbps1

2G

64 kbps

3G

2 Mbps

3.5G

14 Mbps/

5 Mbps

3.9G

30-100

Mbps

4G 1 Gbps

Narrowband Era Wideband Era Broadband Era(1) Max theoretical rate

172 kbps

2.5G

Super

3G

HS

PA

(D

/A)

IMT

-2000

ED

GE

/GP

RS

IS-95, IS-136,

GSM, PDCAMPS

TACS, NTT

Advance

d

LT

E

Ph1Ph2 R4R99 R5R6 R7 R8R97

LT

ELTE

-> 300

Mbps

WIRELESS TRENDS

Key Trends – A Market View

• Wireless technology peak data rates doubling every year

• Smartphones/Applications driving broadband wireless data access.

• 3G mostly mature, 4G deployment starting.

• Increasingly aggressive competition throughout the supply chain

HSPA Deployments Going Strong

240 commercially deployed HSPA

over 110 countries worldwide

(January 2009)

3.4 billion people who will have

broadband by 2014 where:80% will be mobile broadband subscribers

64% will use HSPA/LTE.

By 2011 %50+ of all sold notebooks will be

HSPA enabled

Mobile Data Explosion (1)

Apple reports they have shipped 30M iPhones (March 09)

Number 2 seller of smart phones in the US (28%), behind BlackBerry (41%)

New open access phones, e.g. Android

Huge impact from social networks:• YouTube, Facebook

High demand for video streamingand P2P traffic 1 billion of gigabyte, 1018

Reportlinker, Sept. 2009

Mobile Data Explosion (2)

Traffic via portables to reach 1.8 exabytes per month by 2017 - a CAGR of 59% over 2009

Nearly three quarters (1.3 exabytes) of this will be video traffic - a CAGR of 64% over 2009

LTE to form two thirds of global traffic by 2017

1 billion of gigabyte, 1018

Reportlinker, Sept. 2009

100s of Gbps of data traffic

Millions of tunnels/app flows with associated QoS and charging policies

10s of millions of hits per second

Millions of triple-play subscribers

Enhanced Packet Core Exploding Performance Density

Overall Industry - Observations

LTE initial deployments this year

3G upgrades will continue strong

Focus on traffic management (DPI)

Focus on mobile backhaul

Vendors past consolidation – growth phase with LTE

Promise & Pain

LTE Coming

HSPA roll-outs

Mobile TV

Smart Phones – iPhone effect

USB Dongles

Voice revenues plummeting

Crippled networks – ATT, TNZ..

Massive capex for LTE

Massive complexity

Bad 3G ROI

Wireline Network Topology

Consumer Devices Wireless Access Network Wireless Core Network Wireline Network

Wireless (Radio ) Wired (Ethernet) Wired (Ethernet)

AAA/BillingMobility

Gateway Location

Switches/Routers

3G – 4G Network Devices

3G SGSN

IP Network,

IMS, etcPDN GW

Serving

GW

MME

S1-U

S4

Gi

EUTRAN + UEs

S11

ePDG AAA

Trusted non-

3GPP Access

S2a

SWm

PCRF

S1-MME

MME

S11 Gx

Converged End-to-End Testing

Thank you