10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off TM3/4/5 Modeling at KNMI HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the

10-11 October 2006 HYMN kick-off

TM3/4/5 Modeling at KNMITM3/4/5 Modeling at KNMI

HYMNHydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide:

Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere

GOCE-CT-2006-037048

HYMNHydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide:

Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere

GOCE-CT-2006-037048


Atmospheric Composition research

Climate Research DepartmentKNMI

Atmospheric Composition research

Climate Research DepartmentKNMI

• Atmospheric chemistry modeling TM• Satellite Earth observation

– OMI (PI-institute), SCIA, GOME

• Air Quality forecasting (new)

• Atmospheric chemistry modeling TM• Satellite Earth observation

– OMI (PI-institute), SCIA, GOME

• Air Quality forecasting (new)


ContentsContents

• Model development KNMI: TM3 -> TM4 -> TM5• Forward modelling

– Methane budget studies (TM3)– RETRO (TM4)– New TM5 strat-trop model version

• Inverse modelling– EVERGREEN (TM4)

• HYMN forward + inverse modeling activities KNMI

• Model development KNMI: TM3 -> TM4 -> TM5• Forward modelling

– Methane budget studies (TM3)– RETRO (TM4)– New TM5 strat-trop model version

• Inverse modelling– EVERGREEN (TM4)

• HYMN forward + inverse modeling activities KNMI


TM3-TM4-TM5 TM3-TM4-TM5

• TM modeling community (KNMI, Univ. Utrecht, Univ. Wageningen, JRC, NOAA CMDL, Univ Crete, …)

• TM3 (1995,..) [heritage Heimann TM2 (1991)]• TM4 (2003, ..) new meteo-preprocessing• TM5 trop (2003,..) zoom option • TM5 trop+strat (2006,..) full-3D chemistry

• TM information on the web– http://www.knmi.nl/~velthove/tm.html

• TM modeling community (KNMI, Univ. Utrecht, Univ. Wageningen, JRC, NOAA CMDL, Univ Crete, …)

• TM3 (1995,..) [heritage Heimann TM2 (1991)]• TM4 (2003, ..) new meteo-preprocessing• TM5 trop (2003,..) zoom option • TM5 trop+strat (2006,..) full-3D chemistry

• TM information on the web– http://www.knmi.nl/~velthove/tm.html


Methane budget studies (TM3)Methane budget studies (TM3)


Methane lifetime 1979-1993Methane lifetime 1979-1993

Simulation Meteorol-ogy

CH4 emis All emis Strat. Ozon

TrendCH4 lifetime (%/yr)

S1 base run 1979-1993 1979-1993 1979-1993 1979-1992 -0.24

S2 CH4 emis 1993 1979-1993 1993 1992 +0.21

S3 all emis 1993 1979-1993 1979-1993 1992 +0.12

S4 strat. ozone

1993 1993 1993 1979-1992 -0.15

S5 fixed meteorology

1993 1979-1993 1979-1993 1979-1992 -0.02

S6 variable meteorology

1979-1993 1993 1993 1992 -0.20

S7 water vapor

1993(excl H2O)

1993 1993 1992 -0.13

Dentener et al., JGR, 2003


H2O variability (ERA15)H2O variability (ERA15)

1979-1993: increase in H2O => increase in OH => reduced growth of CH41979-1993: increase in H2O => increase in OH => reduced growth of CH4

Waterdamp column

(kg/m2)

3-year meansScale 0-50

kg/m2

Anomalies to the

15-year mean

(Blue -5% to -15%

Orange +15%)


RETRO model intercomparisonand validation (TM4)

RETRO model intercomparisonand validation (TM4)


10-11 October 2006 HYMN kick-offTM overestimates ozone mostly in the lower troposphere


station pTOMCAT TM MOZECH LMDZ Bermuda 0.87 0.9 0.94 0.89 Barrow 0.01 -0.33 0.21 0.13 Mauna Loa 0.6 0.74 0.74 0.51 Niwot Ridge 0.61 0.17 -0.02 0.21 Samoa 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.96 Southpole 0.88 0.95 0.49 0.07 Mean 0.65 0.56 0.55 0.46

Correlation coefficient

station pTOMCAT TM MOZECH LMDZ Bermuda -9 24 15 -12 Barrow 28 48 13 51 Mauna Loa -25 0 39 -29 Niwot Ridge -20 18 27 29 Samoa 34 76 47 27 Southpole -9 -23 23 0 Mean 0 24 27 11

Relative Mean Bias (percent)

None of the models capture seasonal cycle at Barrow (Bromine chemistry)

Underestimation in TM of cycle at Bermuda is partly due to relatively coarse resolution


station pTOMCAT TM MOZECH LMDZ Alert 0.92 0.99 0.98 0.99 Ny Alesund 0.99 1 0.95 0.97 Cape Grim 0.85 0.92 0.97 0.97 South Pole 0.93 0.93 0.75 0.95 Guam 0.3 0.42 0.45 0.38 Mauna Loa 0.72 0.76 0.81 0.68 Izana 0.92 0.92 0.87 0.92 Mace Head 0.84 0.83 0.51 0.76 Barrow 0.98 0.98 0.9 0.95 Niwot Ridge 0.87 0.83 0.41 0.85 Bermuda 0.81 0.92 0.85 0.87 Samoa 0.93 0.87 -0.12 0.8 Mean 0.84 0.87 0.69 0.84

Correlations coefficients

station pTOMCAT TM MOZECH LMDZ Alert 13 -2 -41 -24 Ny Alesund 13 -3 -41 -26 Cape Grim 62 49 -27 13 South Pole 69 46 -25 16 Guam 4 -17 -50 -26 Mauna Loa 12 -6 -49 -24 Izana 24 7 -42 -14 Mace Head 10 0 -32 -22 Barrow 12 -2 -43 -25 Niwot Ridge 15 1 -31 -24 Bermuda 6 -8 -38 -23 Samoa 40 9 -36 -9 Mean 23 6 -38 -16

Relative Mean Bias (% )

TM appears an exceptionally good model for CO


HYMNFull chemistry runs

TM5 trop-strat version

HYMNFull chemistry runs

TM5 trop-strat version


TM5 trop-strat versionTM5 trop-strat version

• Extended vertical grid up to 0.2 hPa (e.g. 44 levels)• Global 3 x 2 lon-lat; zoom option to 1 x 1• 49 tracers transported, 25 tracers not transported• Second-order moments advection scheme• Explicit chemical reaction scheme including 45 photochemical,144 gas phase and 33 heterogeneous reactions. Updated to JPL 2006. Avoids lumping of species• Explicit radiative transfer module implemented for photolyisis. Actinic fluxes at selected wavelengths each time step (Landgraf and Crutzen)• Full description of PSCs and NAT particle formation / sedimentation

• Extended vertical grid up to 0.2 hPa (e.g. 44 levels)• Global 3 x 2 lon-lat; zoom option to 1 x 1• 49 tracers transported, 25 tracers not transported• Second-order moments advection scheme• Explicit chemical reaction scheme including 45 photochemical,144 gas phase and 33 heterogeneous reactions. Updated to JPL 2006. Avoids lumping of species• Explicit radiative transfer module implemented for photolyisis. Actinic fluxes at selected wavelengths each time step (Landgraf and Crutzen)• Full description of PSCs and NAT particle formation / sedimentation






Evergreen (TM4)Evergreen (TM4)


• Model: TM4 at 9x6 degrees x 25 levels• Dataset:

– CH4/CO2 from Univ. Heidelberg– Year: 2004– So far: no model CO2 correction, and averaging

kernels neglected• Error assumptions

– Prior emissions: 50% uniformly; spatial correlations L=1500 km

– Prior initial concentrations: ~1-2%; same spatial correlations

– Observations: uncorrelated, typical precision single obs. 1-2%

Inversion SCIAMACHY data


Analysis increments


Regional time seriesRegional time series


Comparison with flasksComparison with flasks

Free run Assimilation


HYMN modeling at KNMI

* Couplings Biosphere =>TM5* 4D-var assimilation CH4

HYMN modeling at KNMI

* Couplings Biosphere =>TM5* 4D-var assimilation CH4


• TM5, 3-hourly interpolated meteorology(release ~nov 2006)

• 3x2 degrees x 44+ levels• Typically no zooming• Full troposphere-stratosphere chemistry• Recent anthropogenic emissions (EDGAR 2000)• Expected from HYMN:

– significant improvements in biosphere coupling for natural emissions / deposition (CH4, N2O, H2, NO2, CO, VOCs, …)

HYMN Forward modeling


• TM5 at 3x2 degrees x 34 levels• Methane emissions + chemical loss

(OH from full chemistry runs)• Datasets:

– Sciamachy CH4/CO2 from Univ. Heidelberg– FTIR CH4– Surface observations

• Key issues on error assumptions– On single observations or on means?

e.g. to suppress large error reductions– Simulation of systematic errors?– Correlated observations?– …

HYMN Inversions

Documents

10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off TM3/4/5 Modeling at KNMI HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the