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• Workshop on inventories and projections of GHG and NH3 emissions from agriculture in Central and Eastern

Europe

23-24 June 2005ISPRA, Italy

• PROGNOSIS of GHG EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE IN BULGARIA

• Assoc. Prof. Hristo Vassilev, Ph.D.

Energy Institute JSC

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Introduction

• The Government will carry out a uniform national strategy focusing on sustainable development of the agricultural sector in compliance with the general agricultural EU policy, taking the specific natural circumstances in Bulgaria into account.

• The technological restructuring and new investment policy of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry will guarantee the food supplies and the positive agricultural trade balance.

• Agricultural organizations will be supported and their role - strengthened in order to achieve market protection at buying up of agricultural production.

• An important task in the EU accession process is to create conditions for wide implementation of ecological practices.

• Special attention should be paid to retaining of soil fertility through introduction of anti-erosion activities, new methods for soil cultivation, ceased practice of field burning.

• The baseline scenario does not envisage implementation of measures for GHG emissions reduction in the agricultural sector.

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Policy instruments for Agricultural sector

Legal

Setting new standards on nitrogen contents in agricultural products

Fiscal

-

Finance

State Agricultural Fund (SAF): subsidies for the introduction of new methods for retaining of soil fertilitySAF: low interest loans for construction and rehabilitation of irrigation systems SAPARD

R&D

Education and training to be financed by SAPARD

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Measures with Participation of SAPARD

MEASURE 01 – INVESTMENTS IN FARMS

This measure includes the support of private investments, orientated to improvement of the quality and technologies for producing of agricultural products in the following sectors:

• Sector 01 – “Milk and dairy-producing”;• Sector 02 – “Meat and meat production”;• Sector 03 – “Sustainable plants”;• Sector 04 – “Vegetables, flowers, perennial ethereal-oil,

cereals, oil-bearing crops, perennial medicinal plants, tobacco – high quality and cotton”;

• Sector 05 – “Eggs and egg products”.

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Measures-2

MEASURE 02 – IMPROVEMENT OF THE PROCESSING AND MARKETING OF AGRICULTURAL AND FISHERY PRODUCTS

The program is orientated to aid the production, processing and marketing of high-quality products, to meet health-sanitarian requirements and do not pollute the environment.

• Sector 01 – “Vine-production”;• Sector 02 – “Fruits and vegetables”;• Sector 03 – “Milk and dairy products”;• Sector 04 – “Meat-processing”;• Sector 05 – “Fishery and aquaculture”.

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Measures-3

MEASURE 03 – Development and diversification of the economical activities, creation of opportunities for multilateral activities and alternative incomes

• Sector 01 – “Rural-village tourism”;• Sector 02 – “Local craftsmanship and agroindustry”;• Sector 03 – “Woodworking and bio-fuels”;• Sector 04 – “Sericulture”;• Sector 05 – “Bee-keeping”;• Sector 06 – “Horse-breeding”;• Sector 07 – “Fishery and aquaculture”;• Sector 08 – “Mushroom-growing”;• Sector 09 – “Processing of ethereal-oil crops, medicinal plants

and mushrooms

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Measures- 4

MEASURE 05 – Producers’ markets and exchanges

• This measure represents the necessary connection between the producing sector and acceptance of these products from EC market, considering the present condition and the outlook for new niches especially on the international markets.

• The breeding of competitive and viable structures for marketing of fruits, vegetables, flowers, fish and fish-products means improvement of quality of the products on high prices, including environment protection.

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Measures- 5

MEASURE 06 – Forestry, afforestation of agricultural lands, investments in forestry enterprises, processing and marketing of forestry products.

• Forestry sector in Bulgaria is traditionally connected with the development of agricultural sector.

• Forestry lands in Bulgaria spread on 3.91 millions ha or 34% from territory of the country ;

• Fulfillment of chosen felling in forest on age lesser than twenty years and it’s not provided for market timber;

• Make second class forest roads;• Breeding of forest crops from luxuriated species on uncultivated

agricultural and erosioned lands with tournus of fettling up to 15 years;• Cultivated (supported) measures of new plantations ensuring their correct

grouth and facilitating the protection of pests, foresty deseases and fires;• Afforest of uncultivated agricultural and erosioned lands;

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Total average annual population

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012year

1000 h

ead

Cattle total Pigs total Sheep total Goats total

Category Total average annual population

(1000 head)

  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cattle total 709,768 417,33 469,55 512,67 993,675 612,459 685,01 1348,56 751 751

Pigs total 1014,4 1234 1345,6 1543,89 1724,48 2345,23 2433 2536 2543,5 2637,44

Sheep total 1663,48 1823,48 2134,48 2345,48 2661,57 3284,5 3867 4158,7 4780 4990,43

Goats total 739,904 876,904 987,443 1053,89 1109,86 1409,86 1609,86 1849,76 1756,03 1627,79

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Total average annual population (head)

0

15000

30000

45000

60000

75000

90000

105000

120000

135000

150000

165000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

year

head

Poultry total in 1000 head Horses Buffalo Mules and Asses

Category Total average annual population

(head)

  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Poultry total in 1000 head

20036 21036 23036 24036 26047 31036 33036 36065 37686 38069

Horses 120797 121797 122597 123597 126837 128344 139980 144956 144900 144000

Buffalo 7687 8234 8560 9548 10762 12345 14530 15374 15430 16143

Mules and Asses 146578 154321 158543 160234 161236 154320 152990 146578 142564 131920

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Annual amount of synthetic fertilizer tone N

0,0

2000,0

4000,0

6000,0

8000,0

10000,0

12000,0

14000,0

16000,0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

year

N t

/ha*y

ear

Vegetable Orchards Vineyards

Agricultural and Forestry land

Annual amount of synthetic fertilizer N

(N t/ha*year)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Vegetable 2700,0 2772,3 2843,8 3074,5 3267,0 3402,4 3612,8 3888,0 3951,6 4050,0

Orchards 4880,0 5036,4 5438,7 5612,4 5904,8 5965,5 6357,5 6734,4 6997,8 7320,0

Vineyards 9700,0 10524 11091 11827 12270 13196 14194 14588 15092 15395

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Agricultural and Forestry land

Annual amount of synthetic fertilizer N

(N t/ha*year)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Potatoes 800,0 820,1 842,9 865,7 880,0 911,2 979,6 1040,0 1053,4 1134,0

Tobacco 320,0 323,2 326,1 335,8 349,6 347,0 356,9 374,4 368,7 367,2

Industrial oils (rose)

270,0 318,3 366,9 396,6 405,0 461,7 525,8 540,0 561,3 558,3

Annual amount of synthetic fertilizer tone N

0,0

200,0

400,0

600,0

800,0

1000,0

1200,0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

year

N t

/ha*y

ear

Potatoes Tobacco Industrial oils (rose)

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Agricultural and Forestry land

Annual amount of synthetic fertilizer N

(N kg/ha*year)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Wheat 44770000 46171650 48228405 51851702 54171700 56193536 62148354 69841200 71926020 75880980

Barley 12870000 13127112 13412484 13697856 14157000 14768600 15837328 16988400 17892813 18834552

Maize 22650000 23525380 24507168 25871412 27406500 31379348 35474382 38052000 39665214 41032992

Rice 220000 229760 241777 253806 266200 316712 348930 396000 401004 418000

Sunflower 26529000 27412880 28594794 29422680 30640995 31841260 33669424 35018280 35633808 36477375

Annual amount of synthetic fertilizer tone N

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

year

N t

/ha*y

ear

Wheat Barley Maize Sunflow er

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Annual amount of synthetic fertilizers tone N

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

year

N k

g/h

a*y

ear

Rice

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Agricultural land

Annual amount of animal manure N

(N kg/ha*year)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Maize 15631616 16017280 16338112 16895616 17732114 19913817 22335722 23252029 23252022 23252029

Potatoes 1480765 1480765 1480765 1549108 1571889 1571889 1503546 1526327 1557200 1626563,4

Vegetable 2411812 2443376 2464644 2727340 2806051 2878920 2965710 3116803 3116792 3116803,2

Tobacco 3768750 3728970 3750472 3718140 3779219 3662630 3607150 3580313 3502650 3381406,3

Orchards 6583370 6661106 6968360 7080208 7241707 7301034 7666426 7900044 8081920 8229213

Vineyards 10376800 10909240 11091055 11295650 11414480 12060650 12835000 13005000 13090000 13175000Annual amount of animal manure tone N

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

year

N t

/ha*year

Maize Orchards Vineyards

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Annual amount of animal manure tone N

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

year

N t/

ha*y

ear

Potatoes Vegetable Tobacco

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FUTURE IMPACT OF GHG REDUCTION POLICIES AND MEASURES

GHG emission reduction measures additional to the baseline scenario have been identified and form the basis of three additional emission projects projections:

• S1. Energy efficiency: projection including all additional policies and measures related to energy efficiency in the demand side sectors (industry, services, transport, households);

• S2. Renewables: projection including all additional policies and measures related of the energy efficiency scenario plus those related to renewable energy sources;

• S3. Energy supply: projection including all additional policies and measures related to the renewables scenario plus those related to the supply side sectors (energy production).

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ANALYSIS OF THE GHG EMISSIONS FORECAST AND THE KYOTO TARGET

• The Figure provide an overview of the baseline projection and the three (cumulative) additional policies projections.

Forecasts for the Development of GHG emissions till 2020

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

BASE

V1

V2

V3

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CONCLUSIONS- 1

• The results of the latest GHG emissions inventory indicate that the Kyoto target will equal to 127.3 Mton СО2 Eq. (i.e. 8 % reduction of emissions compared to the base year 1988 which equaled 138.4 Mton СО2 Eq.).

• According to the elaborated GHG emissions forecasts with implementation of additional policies and measures presented in the Second Action Plan, the emission volumes for the First Kyoto period can be estimated.

• Scenario S1 of the forecast could be provisionally called a minimum scenario because it includes only the measures for emissions reduction in industry, households and services .

• Scenario S3 could be provisionally called a maximum scenario because it accounts for all the measures for GHG emissions reduction in industry, households, services, energy production sector and covers RES measures as well.

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CONCLUSIONS- 2

• The presented overall emissions levels for the period 2008-2012, during the First Period of the Kyoto Protocol, reviewed at average annual level equal to the following mean annual GHG emissions:

- Base scenario - 79.0 Mton СО2 Eq.-Minimum scenario - 75.8 Mton СО2 Eq.- Maximum scenario - 72.3 Mton СО2 Eq.

• The comparison of the above volumes with the Kyoto target reveals that there will remain the following free GHG emissions volumes:

- Base scenario - 48.3 Mton СО2 Eq.- Minimum scenario - 51.5 Mton СО2 Eq.- Maximum scenario – 55.0 Mton СО2 Eq.

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Thank you!

Energy Institute

1113, Sofia

20, Fr. J. Courie

Phone + 3592 9698 621