1 [email protected] Valerio Tramutoli 1,2 1
University of Basilicata, Potenza Italy
([email protected]) 2 Institute of Methodologies of
Environmental Analysis, CNR, Tito Scalo Potenza Italy On the
possible origins of Pre-seismic TIR anomalies Valerio Tramutoli 1,2
1 University of Basilicata, Potenza Italy
([email protected]) 2 Institute of Methodologies of
Environmental Analysis, CNR, Tito Scalo Potenza Italy SCEC CSEP
Workshop on Testing External Forecasts and Predictions Los Angeles
7-8 May 2013
Slide 3
[email protected] 2 Physical Models Anomalous TIR
emissions are foreseen by most of the models describing earthquakes
preparation phases e.g. Freund ( J. Geodyn. 2002 ) positive
hole-type charge carriers in rocks, activated when rocks are
subjected to high levels of stress
Slide 4
[email protected] 3 Physical Models Anomalous TIR
emissions are foreseen by most of the models describing earthquakes
preparation phases e.g. LAIC ( Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere
Coupling, Pulinets, 2009 )
Slide 5
[email protected] 4 SOURCE of CO2 and/or CH4
Increasing Surface Temperature Increasing R TIR SIGNAL VIS wind TIR
Physical Models Local greenhouse effect ( Quiang, 1991, Tramutoli
et al., 2001, 2005, 2013 )
Slide 6
[email protected] Physical Models (before) day week
month A year decade day week month year decade 0 under stress
microcracks formation can increases degassing rate (TIR
anomalies)
Slide 7
[email protected] day week month A year decade day
week month year decade 0 further stress increasing determines
microcracks closure interrupting previous degassing increase (TIR
anomalies disappearance) Physical Models (just before)
Slide 8
[email protected] day week month A year decade day
week month year decade 0 major rupture can determine new escaping
ways and a new increase of degassing rate (TIR anomalies) Physical
Models (immediately after) California 2000-2006 MODIS 7 YEARS
Slide 9
[email protected] 8 Expected atmospheric spectral
radiance excesses (BT in K) at ground in presence of different CO2
concentrations MODTRAN simulation, (Tramutoli et al., 2009) 10 20
30 40 50 60 70 8910111213141516 wavelengths [m] TIR radiance
excesse in BT units [K] CO2x20CO2x10CO2x5CO2x3CO2x2 Physical Models
Local greenhouse effect ( Quiang, 1991, Tramutoli, 2005, Tramutoli,
et al., 2012 )
[email protected] 12 CO2 - lake CO2 - river Physical
models: CO2 Bhuj-Gujarat (India), Ms= 7.9, 26 gennaio 2001 25
January2001 26 January 2001 27 h January2001 28 January 2001 25
June1996 (4 days before EQ)
Slide 14
[email protected] 13 more than 220 mud volcanoes, CH4
emission: 100-1000 ton/km2 per year (Etiope, 2003) Physical models:
CH4 Mud Volcanoes in Azerbaijan as controled sources of methane
STREGEOS Panhai, Aliev, Guliev, Martinelli at Mefite, August 2006
NATO PROGRAMME SECURITY THROUGH SCIENCE
Slide 15
[email protected] 14 No data (clouds) RETIRA 3 RETIRA
2 RETIRA 2.5 22/5/95 23/5/95 Bozdagh volcano eruption May 1995
Physical models: known sources of CH4 21st May, 2003 Boumerdes
earthquake (M W = 6.9): 28-04-2003 26-04-2003
Slide 16
[email protected] 15 26 January 2001 22/5/95 Physical
models CO2 CH4 H2Ovap CH4 Mudvolcano Earth quake Clouds
Slide 17
[email protected] 16 Seismological observation
(Vp/Vs) (Lucente et al, Geology, 2010) 01 April 2009 00:57:47 GTM
31 March 2009 01:14:56 GTM 30 March 2009 01:10:00 GTM 31 March 2009
01:57:31 GMT 30 March 2009 00:22:57 GMT 01 April 2009 01:46:49 GMT
30 March 2009 00:00:00 GMT 31 March 2009 00:00:00 GMT 01 April 2009
00:00:00 GMT SEVIRI MODIS AVHRR TIR anomalies Independent
observations at the time of Abruzzo April 6 th 2009 EQ 16 Vp/Vs
observations have been justified by a progressive emptying of a
huge gas reservoir triggered by the event of March 31 st. Such an
hypothesis perfectly fits with models correlating TIR anomalies
with abrupt increasing of green- houses gases emissions.
Slide 18
Universit degli Studi della Basilicata
[email protected] 17 Next Future Using of satellite
instrumentations (like AIRS- EOS, SCIAMACHY-ENVISAT, IASI-MetOp)
for directly retrieve greenhouse gases concentration over L Aquila
only months of April from 2003 to 2009
Slide 19
Universit degli Studi della Basilicata
[email protected] 18 Measuring greenhouse gases from
Space (AIRS, IASI, Shamachy, etc) 50 km 2 daily, multi daily and
monthly means. Accuracy over the grid: 1-2 ppmv
http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/AIRS_CO2_Data/ An example of an AIRS
mid-tropospheric CO2 monthly mean map, July 2009.
Universit degli Studi della Basilicata
[email protected] Thanks (in any case it is a long
story...) Anaxagoras (appr. 500-428 BC.) Aristotle (384-322 BC)
pneuma, a warm, dry gas escapes Straton of Lampsakos (320-270 BC)
Poseidonios (135-51 BC) Pliny the Elder( 24-79 AD) Seneca (55 BC-40
AD) Pausanias (115-180 AD) Ammianus Marcellinus (second half of 4
th century AD) Albertus Magnus (1193-1280 A.D.) Thomas Aquino
(1225-1274 A.D.) Konrad von Megenberg (1309-1374) Leonardi da Vinci
(1452-1516) violently escaping air 2 millenia Aristotle The pneuma
theory of escaping gas as cause of earthquakes (by courtesy of
Helmut Tributsch)