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1 United States of America National Report on Surface-Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21 May, 2008

1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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Page 1: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

1

United States of America National Report on Surface-

Based Ozone Research

Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting

Geneva, Switzerland18-21 May, 2008

Page 2: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

2

US AGENCIES CONTRIBUTING• National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA)• National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)• National Science Foundation (NSF)• Department of Agriculture (USDA)• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

SURFACE-BASED NETWORKS• Dobson Ozone Spectrophotometer Network• Ozonesonde Networks (including SHADOZ)• Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change

(NDACC)• Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)

Network• ESRL Global Monitoring Division Ozone-Depleting Gas Network• Ultraviolet Radiation Networks

Page 3: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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OBSERVATIONAL ACTIVITIES OZONE

Dobson Ozone Spectrophotometers (column and umkehr profiles - Part of GAW) – 16 global instruments plus the WMO World Standard instrument

UV-Multi Filter Shadowband Radiometer (column) – 32 US, 2 Canadian, 1 New Zealand

Brewer Spectrometer Network – 6 US Instruments Ozonesondes (profile) – 10 global sites plus additional

near-annual balloon campaigns Miscellaneous Remote Profile Sensors - LIDAR,

Microwave Radiometer, FTIR

Page 4: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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OBSERVATIONAL ACTIVITIESOzone-Relevant Gases and Variables

Aircraft and Balloon-borne – H2O, CFC’s, HCFC’s, HFC’s, CH3CCl3, CH3Br, CH3Cl

Surface – Global measurements of 25 ozone-depleting gases for determination of equivalent effective chlorine (EECl)

UV Visible spectrometers – NO2, BrO, OClO

FTIR spectrometers – HCl, HF, HNO3, ClONO2, NO

Page 5: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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OBSERVATIONAL ACTIVITIESUV

BROADBAND & FILTER INSTRUMENTS: SURFRAD Network – 7 sites ESRL Network – Boulder and Mauna Loa (in conjunction with

spectroradiometers) USDA UVB Monitoring Program – 34 sites

SPECTRORADIOMETERS: SURFRAD UV spectroradiometers at Table Mountain NDACC spectroradiometers at Mauna Loa and Boulder (in

collaboration with NIWA-New Zealand) NSF UV Monitoring Network - spectroradiometers at 7 sites,

mainly in the polar regions ESRL/EPA Brewer Mark IV spectrometers at 6 US sites

Page 6: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

6

SIGNIFICANT RESULTS

1. CONTRIBUTIONS TO OZONE ASSESSMENTS

2. OZONE LOSS LINKED TO ANTARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE

3. OZONE-DEPLETING GAS OBSERVATIONS

4. DOBSON TOTAL OZONE TRENDS

5. OZONE HOLE TRENDS AT SOUTH POLE

6. RECENT INCREASES IN HCFCs

7. CLIMATE BENEFITS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL

8. RECENT AIRBORNE MEASUREMENTS OF TROPICAL

BROMINE GASES

9. EVALUATING ODSs IN THE LABORATORY

10.UV RADIATION TRENDS

Page 7: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

7

Tropospheric Organic Chlorine

Page 8: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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Long-Lived Halocarbons Contributing to Equivalent Effective Cl

490

515

540

pp

t CFC-12

240

250

260

270

pp

t CFC-11

0

40

80

120

160

200

1990 1995 2000 2005

pp

t

CH3CCl3

HCFC-22

CCl4

CFC-113

0

5

10

15

20

pp

t

HCFC-142b

HCFC-141b

H-1211

H-1301

CH3Br

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

1990 1995 2000 2005

pp

b

Global EECl [Cl + (Br*60)]

Down11% from

peak

ESRL

Page 9: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

9

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080Year (sample date + 6)

EE

SC

(p

pt)

ESRL Data

A1 (WMO 2006)

EESC in1980

Past Data

1980 level

Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine - Antarctica

ODGI2007 = 86

The Ozone Depleting Gas Index (ODGI)

ODGIRecovery = 0

ODGIMAX = 100 (1994)

HCFCs go away?

NOAA Ozone Depleting Gas Index

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

OD

GI

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

AntarcticMid-Latitudes

ESRL

EESC Observations

ProjectionWMO 2006

Page 10: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

10

Dobson Ozone Trends – A New Look

Dobson Ozone Trends

Harris, J.M., S.J. Oltmans, P.P. Tans, R.D. Evans, and D.L. Quincy, Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 4535, 2001 (updated)

Smooth trend curves of monthly ozone values from selected Dobson stations (South Pole, continental US, and the tropics) are shown. Changes represented by the growth rate determined from differentiating these trend curves is an instantaneous measure of the rate of change of stratospheric ozone and thus represents various aspects of ozone layer recovery.

ESRL

No attempt to remove possible Pinatubo effects has been made

Page 11: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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Continental U.S. Total Column Ozone Growth Rate Instantaneous growth rate curve (± 2 SD) found from

differentiating the trend curve

Average growthrate 1968-1995:-2.16 %/decade

Average growthrate 1996-2007:+1.73 %/decade

Page 12: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

12

South Pole Total Column Ozone Growth Rate Instantaneous growth rate curve (± 2 SD) found from

differentiating the trend curve

Average growthrate 1968-1995:-11.1 %/decade

Average growthrate 1996-2007:-1.38 %/decade

Page 13: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15

OZONE (millipascals)

AL

TIT

UD

E (

km

)

Jul-Aug AVG 268 DU 133 DU

OCT 09 93 DU 4 DU

TOTAL OZONE 12-20 Column

14 – 21 km total depletion region

2006 Antarctic Ozone Hole

OMI Satellite Measurements – Sept. 24, 2006

South Pole Balloon-borne MeasurementsOctober 9, 2006

Page 14: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

14

South Pole 14-21 km Column Ozone

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Do

bso

n U

nit

s (D

U)

0

50

100

150

200

Beginningof recovery?

ProbablyNot

South Pole 14-21 km Column OzoneFrom Balloon Ozonesondes

ESRL

~1500 Balloon Flights

Page 15: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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South Pole October Ozone vs Temperature - 30 hPa

Temperature (C)

-90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20

Ozo

ne

Mix

ing

Rat

io (

pp

mv)

0.1

1

10

1966-1972

South Pole October Ozone vs Temperature - 30 hPa

Temperature (C)

-90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20

Ozo

ne

Mix

ing

Rat

io (

pp

mv)

0.1

1

10

1966-19721986-1989

South Pole October Ozone vs Temperature - 30 hPa

Temperature (C)

-90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20

Ozo

ne

Mix

ing

Rat

io (

pp

mv)

0.1

1

10

1966-19721986-19891990-2004

South Pole October Ozone vs Temperature - 30 hPa

Temperature (C)

-90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20

Ozo

ne

Mix

ing

Rat

io (

pp

mv)

0.1

1

10

1966-19721986-19891990-20042005-2007

Page 16: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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Recent Changes in HCFCs

ESRL

Page 17: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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Ozone-Depleting Gases also Affect Climate

CH4

N2O

CFCs

CH4

N2O

CFCsCCl4, CH3CCl3

Page 18: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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Methyl BromideHalon 1211Halon 1301

Halon 2402DibromomethaneOther Short-lived Org Br.

47%

24%

17%

5.2%

5.2%2.3%

Methyl BromideHalon 1211Halon 1301Halon 2402

DibromomethaneBromoformOther Short-lived Org Br.

31%

17%

13%

4.1%

12%

20%

2.9%

Methyl BromideHalon 1211Halon 1301Halon 2402

DibromethaneBromoformOther Short-lived Org Br.

38%

21%

15%

5.4%

9.4%

8.9%2%

0 -1 km

~ 17 km

4 - 8 kmMeBr=31%Halons=34%S.Lived=35%

MeBr=38%Halons=41%S.Lived=20%

MeBr=47%Halons=46%S.Lived=7.5%

Recent Airborne measurements define composition and distribution of organic bromine source gases in the tropical atmosphere

Page 19: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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Tak

en fr

om IP

CC

Spe

cial

Rep

ort (

2005

)

Montreal ProtocolKyoto Protocol

Evaluating Proposed Substitutes for ODSs

Evaluation of the environmental impact of a compound from production to end-of-life. Laboratory studies are used to evaluate and quantify atmospheric removal, climate impact, and degradation products.

DegradationDeposition

What is a Good Substitute ? Zero ODP Short Atm. Lifetime Low GWP Minimal Impact of Degradation Products

ESRL

Page 20: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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Preliminary analysis at eight sites shows changes in annual UV-B irradiance ranged from +6% to +14% over most of the US (orange bars) for the 10 year period 1994 to 2004. Purple bars show monthly variability.

USDA UV-B Monitoring and Research Program

Page 21: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

Boulder, Colorado

UV Monitoring

Local noon erythemal radiation calculated from UV spectroradiometers (1 nm resolution) at Mauna Loa, Hawaii and Boulder, Colorado

and NIWAESRL

Page 22: 1 United States of America National Report on Surface- Based Ozone Research Seventh WMO/UNEP Ozone Research Managers Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 18-21

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SUMMARY

• Measurements of ozone-depleting gases show a decline in total ozone-depleting potential (EESC) heralding the potential beginning of ozone layer recovery (14% and 27% of the way to 1980 levels for Antarctica and mid-latitudes, respectively).

• To date, no clear indication of the beginning of ozone hole recovery has been observed at the South Pole. At mid-latitudes, ozone depletion has ceased increasing and may be in the first stages of recovery.

• The job is not completed. The ozone hole will last through most of the 21st century. Continued support for long-term measurements of ozone and ozone-depleting substances is necessary. As we look to satellite measurements in the future, we must be vigilant that they are accompanied by accurate surface measurements. We are trying to observe a change of ~1% over a time period of ~10 years!