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UKCES: Skills for Jobs and Growth

Challenges for Innovative Training: Quality and CompetitivenessFundacion Real Fabrica de Tapices, Madrid24/25 November 2009

Professor Mike Campbell OBE

Director of Research and Policy

UK Commission for Employment and Skills

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UKCES: The UK Commission for Employment and Skills

Prosperity: Jobs, Productivity and Skills

International Benchmarks of Skill Levels: Today and Tomorrow

Beyond Skills Upgrading: The importance of ‘Matching’ and ‘Demand’

Key Messages: an agenda for action

The Way Ahead?

Outline

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Assess (e.g. Ambition 2020)

Agenda (e.g. National Strategic Skills Audit)

Advise (e.g. Skills Strategy)

Advocate (e.g. Now is the time)

The UK Commission for Employment and Skills

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High employment/ high productivity

High employment/ low productivity

Low employment/ low productivity

Low employment/ high productivity

Productivity: GDP per hour worked (US$ at current prices), 2007

Em

plo

ym

en

t:

Em

plo

yme

nt

po

pu

latio

ns

ratio

20

07

, a

ll p

ers

on

s 1

5-6

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Source: UKCES, Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK, 2009, pp 21-22

Prosperity = Jobs x Productivity

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Other Measures of Performance

WEF1 IMD2

Global Competitiveness

Index

Higher Education

and Training

World Competitiveness

Rank

Employment Productivity Labour Market

Management Education

Spain 33 33 39 53 20 52 50 32

UK 13 18 21 28 17 30 36 15

Note1 The Global Competitiveness Report 2009-10, World Economic Forum

Note2 World Competitiveness Yearbook 2009, Institute for Management Development

Measure

Country

6

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(continued)

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The International Skills Position

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Participation of Adults in Lifelong Learning

10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

25-34 year olds 45-54 year olds

Population with at least upper secondary education, 2006

UK Position:• 15th in OECD for ‘older workers’• 21st in OECD for ‘younger workers’

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008, Table A1.2a

Our Progress and Current Position

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Our Prospects

Projected International Skills Position 2020

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Projected International Skills Position 2020 …… cont’d

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It is crucial to raise skill levels – more people and to higher levels But: these increased skill levels only make economic sense for

people and for business, if there are the jobs available to make use of those skills

Beyond Skills Upgrading: The importance of ‘Matching’ and ‘Demand’

Past and likely future qualification structure of jobs, shares in %, EU-25+

Total requirement qualification level, projected change 2006-20, in millions, EU-25+

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Jobs/Skills Mismatch (1) Skill Shortages and Skill Gaps– Professional/Technical – Employability

Jobs/Skills Mismatch (2) Over-Qualification/Under-Employment– Unemployment– Under-utilisation of skills

Jobs/Skills Mismatch (3) The demand for high level skills (skill requirements) exceeds supply (skills availability) BUT:

– Variations in level of demand for high level skills; – Relatively slow increase in demand (skilled jobs/skill requirements); – Relatively rapid increase in supply (skilled people/skills available)

Demand: Business Ambition

Beyond Skills Upgrading: The importance of ‘Matching’ and ‘Demand’

15Source: Ambition 2020, Charts 7.1 & 7.2, pp 115-116 - OECD, Education at a Glance 2008, Table A1.3a and Table 1.6

Slow progress to a high skill economy: change in skilled jobs between 1998 and 2006

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Difference between Skills Supply & Demand:Change between 1998 and 2006

Source: Ambition 2020, Chart 7.1, p 115 - OECD, Education at a Glance 2008, Table A1.3a and Table 1.6

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We need to go beyond:(i) Skills upgrading; and

(ii) a better match between skill requirements and skills availability

Business Ambition

The ‘virtuous circle’ of raising skills demand and supply

Business Ambition: Skills as a ‘derived’demand– Economic Policy

– Skill Utilisation

– Management and Leadership

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Match

Mismatch

Positive Economic and Social Outcomes

Supply of Skills Employment Demand

Negative Economic and Social Outcomes

Economic Performance

Employment Reduced Inequality Productivity

Required Workforce

Business Strategy

Management & Leadership

Skills Utilisation

Economy – level/structure

Industrial Policy

Economic Policy

Other Drivers

Potential Workforce

Skills Attainment

Learning provision

Accredited(Qualification)

Informal(Training)

Skills InvestmentIndividual, Employer,

Government

Guidance – firms & people

DemandJobsSupply

•Shortages and skills gaps

•Unemployment and Inactivity

•‘Over-skilled’ / ‘Under-employed

•Migration

Key Messages: An Agenda for Action

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Maximising individual motivation and opportunity for skills and sustainable employment

For the journey in and on in work

The Way Ahead?

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Raise Skill Levels: Our People

– Raise Aspirations: The Case for Skills

– High Quality Provision and Progression

– High Quality Information, Advice and Guidance (Counselling)

– Empower Learners: Choice and Personal Learning Accounts

The Way Ahead?

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Increasing employer ambition, engagement and investment in skills

World beating businesses

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Raise Skill Demand: Our Employers

– Increase Ambition: The Business Case for Skills

– High Value Added, High Growth Businesses, Leadership and Management

– Labour Market Intelligence, Foresight and Matching Supply and Demand

– Employer Networks, Collaboration and ‘High Performance Workplaces’

The Way Ahead?

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Building a more strategic, agile and labour market led employment and skills system

Skills Market

Invest in the wisdom of customers

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Improve Provision and the ‘System’– Increase ‘Responsiveness’: Trust Providers and use ‘outcome based’

Performance Measures– Prioritise Public Funding towards Economically Valuable Skills and increase

‘Co-Investment’– Create a flexible, Module Qualifications System relevant/responsive to

Labour Market needs

The Way Ahead?