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1
Turkey: Neither East Nor WestTurkey: Neither East Nor West
Presentation for the Association for Continuing Education, CWRU
27 October 2003Dr. Ugur Aker
2
GNP Per Capita (2000)GNP Per Capita (2000) Average standard of living is about one fifth of the U.S.
level, similar to Poland.
–U.S.: $34,260.
–Mexico: $8,810.•At current exchange rates: $5,080.
–Turkey: $7,030.•At current exchange rates: $3,090.
3
PopulationPopulation 71 million
– 1923: 12.5 million– 1950: 21 million– 1975: 41 million
Growth rate– 1950-1960: 3%– 1960-1970: 2.5%– 1970-1980: 2.3%– 1990-2000: 1.8%
4
Young PopulationYoung Population
Percent of population under 15: 30%.
Percent of population 65 and over: 5%.
5
GDPGDP In 2002, Turkey's
GDP was 200 billion dollars. The same year, the largest two corporations in the world, Wal-Mart and General Motors had revenues of 250 billion and 185 billion dollars, respectively.
6
Agriculture in GDPAgriculture in GDP
The contribution of agriculture to the GDP declined significantly:1950: 45%1965: 34%1980: 24%1991: 18%2000: 16%
7
““Tradition”Tradition”
Rural population– 1950: 81.3%– 1960: 73.7%– 1970: 63.9%– 2000: 27%
8
Industry and ServicesIndustry and Services
Industry comprised 12% of GDP in 1950, 25% in 2000.
Services comprised 43% of GDP in 1950, 59% in 2000.
9
Effective ServiceEffective Service
Translation: My wall is leaking. Please plumber Joseph, help. Phone: 588…
10
MilitaryMilitary Founding institution
of the Republic Guarantor of national
interest– Confronting
reactionary Islam– Ethnic secessionism– Communist challenge
Officer corps 40,000 strong
11
Military CollegesMilitary Colleges 6 hr classes; 2 hr
exercise. Apart from
breakfast, lunch and dinner, only ½ hr free time.
45 days vacation. 4 in 5 from
military secondary schools.
12
Military Secondary SchoolsMilitary Secondary Schools Established in 1845 1500 graduating
seniors Entrance at age 14-15 Science classes in a
foreign language Student-teacher ratio
of 10:1 Latest technology
13
Military Secondary SchoolsMilitary Secondary Schools Monthly family
income– < $60 : 6%– $60-$120: 33%– $120-$180: 55%– > $200: 4%
Only 10% sons of officers or non-commissioned officers
Only 3% sons of professionals
14
Expulsion From Military CollegeExpulsion From Military College
Flunking twice. Criminal activity. Getting married. Coup attempt.
– In 1963, 1400 were expelled.
Ideological expulsions.– Between 1977 and 1984,
1200 were expelled for leftist activities.
15
Exchange with USExchange with US Many Turkish officers
get training in US Military Academies.
American officers attend Turkish War Colleges.
Turkish military handbooks are translated American handbooks.
16
Military InterventionsMilitary Interventions Coup in 1960.
– Rise of reactionary politics, erosion of economic power of fixed incomes, political oppression of opposition.
– New constitution.– Civilian rule in 1963.
17
IslamistsIslamists
The first political rise of “Islamic” concerns came with the establishment of Democratic Party in 1946.
Secularists, through the military and center-left parties, tried to suppress the rise of Islamists.
18
Military InterventionsMilitary Interventions Ultimatum in 1971.
– 1961 constitution provided more freedoms ever before.
– Proliferation of left and right radical movements.
– Government resigned, freedoms restricted.
19
Islamist FundamentalistsIslamist Fundamentalists
Islamists first organized under National Order Party. – Junior coalition
partner (1974, 1975-78).
20
Military InterventionsMilitary Interventions
Coup in 1980.– Reason: terrorist
activities of right and left.
– All political parties suspended, left and labor suppressed.
– New constitution.– Civilian rule in 1983.
21
Center-right: Motherland and Center-right: Motherland and True Path PartiesTrue Path Parties
Since 1983, both have been in and out of coalition governments.
Their ideology and supporting base are the same but leaders don’t cooperate.
TPP leader became the first female prime minister in middle 90s.
22
PKKPKK
Kurdish Marxist guerilla group PKK started terrorist activities.
During the next 15 years, 40 thousand lives were lost.
Military is charged with the solution.
23
LaborLaborLabor lost political
and economic power between 1980 and 1991 but regained it after 1991 elections.– Wages and salaries
comprised 26% of total factor income in 1989 but 37% in 1992.
24
1991 Coalition1991 Coalition
Center-left and center-right coalition.– Labor and bureaucracy supported social
democrats.– Agriculture interests who lost subsidies and
inward oriented businesses who lost to foreign competition supported True Path Party.
– After the 1991 elections, agricultural supports increased, transfer payments increased from 2.9% of GNP in 1990 to 5.5% in 1993.
25
State LargesseState Largesse High agricultural
support prices. Employment
opportunities in state-controlled sectors.
Generous salary adjustments to public sector employees before elections.
26
Gulf WarGulf War
Loss of trade, tourism, pipeline revenues and refugee crisis are estimated to have cost Turkey about 15-20% of her GDP.
27
1994 Crisis1994 Crisis
Liberalization of capital markets allowed the government to raise more funds, leading to high interest rates.– International asset
holders more influential in policy choices.
28
High Interest RatesHigh Interest Rates
High interest rates kept currency overvalued,– Real exchange rate
appreciated 20% from 1988 to 1993.
Large manufacturing companies engaged in lending.– 1988: 25% of operating
profits from non-manufacturing.
– 1994: 55%.
29
1994 Crisis1994 CrisisThe exchange rate in June ’93 was
TL10,000 to the USD.The exchange rate in May ’94 was
TL35,000 to the USD.Inflation in November ’93 was 65%.Inflation in May ’94 was 118%.
30
1994 Crisis1994 Crisis
Between 1993 and 1998 real wage rate in private manufacturing fell by 25%.
31
Reformist FundamentalistsReformist Fundamentalists
Welfare Party was established after 1980 coup.
Highest percentage in 1995 elections.
Senior partner of coalition for a year: 1996-1997.
32
Kurdish RepresentationKurdish Representation Kurdish parties failed to
achieve the 10% threshold in 1995, 1999 and 2002.
Successive Kurdish parties were closed by the courts on charges of separatism and terrorism.
33
Kurdish RepresentationKurdish Representation Many cities and towns
in the Southeast have elected Kurdish local officials for decades.
Some 30% of the population of the region migrated to the western and southern urban centers.
34
Military InterventionsMilitary Interventions
Ultimatum in 1997. Radical Islamist prime minister resigns.
35
Reformist FundamentalistsReformist Fundamentalists
After the closing of the Welfare Party, the Virtue Party was established (15.4% in 1999).
36
Ultra-NationalistsUltra-Nationalists
Traditionally rabidly anti-leftist and suspected of terrorist activities, 2nd largest party in 1999 elections with 18% of the vote.– Formed a coalition with center-right Motherland Party
and center-left Democratic Left Party.
– In power, they opposed human rights for Kurds and privatization efforts supported by IMF.
37
Average Annual InflationAverage Annual Inflation
20% in the 1970s.35-40% in the early 1980s.60-65% in the late 1980s and early 1990s.90% before the disinflation program in late
1990s.
38
Center-leftCenter-leftCarrying the ideology of Kemalism.
– Secularism.– State dirigism; mistrust of markets and business.
Democratic Left Party gave up its opposition to free-market reforms in 1997. – In 1999, received 22% and became the senior
partner in the coalition.
Republican People’s Party was not represented in the Parliament in 1999 (8.7% vote).
39
InstabilityInstability
Central Government Expenditure(Percent of GNP)
1989: 17%1993: 25%1997: 30%2000: 34%
State support for political loyalty undermining the market discipline.
Central government budget deficits rose from 3.0% of GNP in 1988 to 8.5% in 1998.
40
1999-2001 Crisis1999-2001 Crisis Contagion of Russian crisis of 1998. Devastating earthquakes of 1999. Capital flight took place after a political spat in
Feb. 2001.– Crawling peg policy led to real exchange rate
appreciation.– Capital inflows lowering interest rates.– Current account deficit rose to unprecedented 5%.– Banks’ open positions proved too vulnerable.
41
RecessionsRecessions
1978-1980: -1.5% 1994: -6.1% 1999: -4.7% 2001: -7.4%
42
Loans Upon LoansLoans Upon Loans As of 2002, Turkey owed
31 billion SDR to IMF, 28 billion of it acquired in 1999 and 2002, the latter engineered by Kemal Dervish, former vice president of the World Bank, appointed as the Economy Minister.
43
InflationInflation
IMF has announced that Turkey had the sixth best inflation improvement between 2000 and 2002.
44
Losers of 2002 ElectionsLosers of 2002 Elections
Ultra-nationalists: 8.3%.Reformist Fundamentalist: 2.5%.Motherland: 5.1%.True Path: 9.5%.Democratic Left: 1.1%.Kurdish: 6.2%.
45
Winners of 2002 ElectionsWinners of 2002 Elections
Justice and Development Party (Liberal Islam: 34.1% with 363 deputies).
Republican People’s Party (Center Left: 19.3% with 178 deputies).
46
Justice and Development PartyJustice and Development Party First party in 15 years
to hold a majority in the Parliament.
Supports EU membership, IMF reforms.
Some leftists support them because they undermine the power of the military.
47
Democracy of DisappointmentDemocracy of Disappointment
In 2002 elections, 9 out of 10 incumbents were not reelected to the legislative.
The pattern of previous elections was also one of churning, replacing the favored party.
48
Rays of HopeRays of Hope
IMF program – Budget surplus– Banking reform– Privatization
7th round of legal reforms
Centers of power– NGOs– Anatolian Tigers
49
Anatolian TigersAnatolian Tigers
In the 90s, small-scale, manufacturing family enterprises flourished in the heartland by serving the export market, without any subsidy from the government.
50
Anatolian TigersAnatolian Tigers
46% of employers and 94% of employees had only primary schooling.
65% of the workers were unskilled; only 1% received union wages.
Only 14% of managers were salaried, the rest were owners.
51
Iraq WarIraq War The generals wanted
to be part of the coalition.
The government wanted to support ($24 billion promise).
The newly elected Parliament followed popular sentiment.
The resolution to send 10,000 troops passed after $8.5 billion loan.
52
Is It EU or Something Else?Is It EU or Something Else?
These four countries were similar in their standard of living in the fifties.
53
Valerie Giscard D’EstaingValerie Giscard D’Estaing
”It would be “the end” of the EU if Turkey were ever actually to get in. Turkey is by definition unacceptable as an EU member.”
54
Swimmers in Eastern TurkeySwimmers in Eastern Turkey
55
““Please Please Use the Use the
Pedestrian Pedestrian Tunnel”Tunnel”
15% of the population is illiterate.
56
UniversitiesUniversities
Every June, 1.5 million high school seniors take university entrance exams. About a fourth receive scores to qualify for acceptance, but only 3 in 5 (15% of the total) get placed.
57
Swimmer in Western TurkeySwimmer in Western Turkey
58
University StudentsUniversity Students
59
Kultur Forum Europa awarded 2003 Europe Culture Award to Istanbul Culture and Art Foundation, the organizer of Istanbul Festival since 1973.
60
Sertab Erener’s special duets with Jose Carreras and Ricky Martin demonstrated her versatility as a singer of different kinds of music.
61
Miss World 2002 - Azra AkinMiss World 2002 took place at Alexandra Palace in London, December 7, 2002.
62
Cover of The EconomistTurkey belongs in Europe
Dec 5th 2002