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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids

Using Semi-Automated Decision Algorithms in

Military OperationsBy

Dennis R. EllisDennis.Ellis@trw.com

TRW Systems

PHOENIX CHALLENGE 2002February 20-22, 2002

New Mexico State University,Las Cruces, NM

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids

• The goal is a set of configurable, flexible, semi-automated decision support tools.

• Support for multi-echelon, joint services command simulation at the operational and strategic levels for the IO/IW, AOC, NMD, TMD, and Strategic Deterence missions.

• Based on Joint Operations Planning and Execution System (JOPES) concepts.

• Includes Data Mining, Dempster-Shafer Belief Network, Genetic, Optimal Policy, and Case Based Planning algorithms.

• Supports parallelism, shared memory, and multiple processors.

• Designed for maximum scalability and parallelism as a distributed system.

General Purpose Decision Aids Overview

Decision Makers

Coo

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OPS

Dec

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ithm

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Doc

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Ope

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids

System of Systems

SingleSystem

Co-dependentMissions

OperatorDialog

PassiveObservance

Non-InteractingSystems

Tight Loose

OperationalCells

Collaborative Agents

CommonDecisionsMessage

passing

Joint Exercises

Degree of Integration

Spectrum of Options for Approach

Our focus has been in this area

PracticalImplementation

at AOCs

TADIL-Jis a start

Basis for multi-mission synergy

SmartCollaboration

NMD/TMD/AOC Wargames

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids

Joint Operations Planning & Execution System

Situation Assessment

Course of Action Selection

Detailed Planning

Mission Execution

Repeat if necessary

JOPES-based Deliberative Processes

- Manage Forces- Force Survivable- Weather- Target Viability- Threats

- Identify Goals - Filter Preplans- Selects COAs- Defensive Strategies- Offensive Strategies- Integrate/Deconflict

- Weapon Allocation - Asset Tasking- Joint Scheduling- Define C2 timeline- Satisfy Constraints- Optimize Plan

- Adjust Status- Set Engagement- Assign Assets- Monitor Strikes- Enforce Timeline- Assess Mission

- Plan Update- Redirect Forces- Reconstitute

OPSCAP/SYSCAP Reports

Readiness Reports

Weather Update

Target Assessment

DEFCON Change

Commander’s Estimate Operations Order

Threat Assessment

Engagement Schedule Execute Order

OPSCAP/SYSCAP Reports

Fragmentary Order

Terminate Order

Execute Order

Typical Mission

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids

• Decision = State Transition

- Current State, Transition (Plan & Assess) , and Desired State may not be known - This paradigm has been shown to neatly sort decisions, algorithms, and displays

Representation: Decision Categories: Military Equivalent:

Clarify Current State Situation Analysis

Clarify Desired State Determine Objective

Define Alternatives Develop COAs

Execute/Assess Plan Combat Assessment

PlanCurrentState Assess

DesiredState

Legend: known unknown

NEW!

Decision Centered Approach

Transition

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids

• Background Tasks

• Foreground Tasks - Decision Toolkit

Deliberate Planning• Case-based Planner• Planning Horizon• Terrain Reasoning• Target Designation

Mission Planning• Mission Previewer• Engagement Planner• Optimize Effectiveness• Schedule Repair

Decision ToolsControllerFog-of-War

MissionSimulator

Execution Monitoring• Timeline Enforcer• Rule-Based Execution• Effectiveness Metric• Plan Update Trigger

C&C

Element Management• Force Management• Force Survival• Target Viability

Problem Recognition• Profile Generation• Clustering• Rule Induction

Assessment• Dempster-Shafer Belief Network

• Our decision tools span the full spectrum of military decision making, including Effects Based Operations assessment feedback.

Decision Tools

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids

Planning Thread:

Execution Thread:

Legend: FunctionTechnology

Determine Course of Action

Case-Based Reasoning

Assess Mission Readiness

Data Mining

Optimize Plan

Genetic Algorithm

Preview Mission

Map-Based Visualizer

Assess Mission Effectiveness

BeliefNetwork

Perturb Environment

Fog-of-WarModule

Monitor Timeline

Timeline Visualizer

Update Plan

Optimal Policy

Interleaved Planning & Execution

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids

• Dempster-Shafer Networks

• Information Operations

• Anti-Terrorism Operations

• Combat Assessment

• Weather Forecast

• Space & Terrestrial Weather

• Time Critical Target Assessment

• Foreign Launch Assessment

Situation Diagnosis

The data: - Is usually uncertain, incomplete, ambiguous - Possibly conflicting - Arrives asynchronously

Under intense time pressure, people often: 1) Refuse to decide 2) “Jump to conclusions” 3) Ignore potentially important evidence 4) Have difficulty understanding data correlation

It is crucial that situations are properly diagnosed because military decisions that adversely affect lives, property, and the environment are based on the assessment of the situation, making the decision inherently risky.

Taskto

Strategy

Belief inHypotheses

Time

Evidence

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids Information Ops - Operator View

Evidence aboutassociated hypothesis

Belief in evidence supporting associated hypothesis below blue line.Disbelief in evidence supporting associated hypothesis above red line.Amount of ignorance about associated hypothesis between lines.

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids

• Data Mining

• Weka

• Subdue

Pattern Discovery

Given a large, dynamically changing database, a decision-maker must understand relationships among data fields, guard against corrupt data, and be alerted to changes in the underlying structure of the data.

Shallow Data(discover with SQL)

Multi-Dimensional Data(discover with OLAP)

Hidden Data(discover with Weka)

Deep Data(discover only with

manual clues)

• Weka uses Quinlan’s C5.0 Classifier to find underlying structure and build a rule tree that identifies “outliers”.

• Inconsistencies, omissions, and conflicts are explicitly shown.

• Weka uses statistical techniques for data extraction:

- Rule Induction- Neural Networks- Regression Modeling- K Nearest Neighbor Clustering

• Subdue uses a Minimum Description Length (MDL) algorithm to compress and hierarchically cluster.

OurEfforts

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids WEKA - Rule Induction View

Lat > 39.459 OPR2 NOP

Lat < 39.4Lon > 127.22 OPR56 NOPLat > 39.1

Lon < 127.231 OPR2 NOP

Legend: OPR -> OperationalNOP -> Non-Operational

Lat < 39.1Lon < 127.230 NOP SA-2s

Lat > 38.5Lon < 127.21 OPR SA-330 NOP SA-3s

Rules that determine if a threat Surface-to-Air site is operational or not

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids Strategy Determination/Detailed Planning

• Course-of-Action Development

• Detailed Plan Development

Because of the complexity and size of the planning space and the number of possible combinations of factors and constraints that must be considered during the planning phase, manual planning methods, and most current automated methods, are too narrowly focused, inflexible, time consuming, and not scalable.

The characteristics of this decision type are: 1) A decision-maker is given broad objectives that result in an ill-posed problem, 2) Exponential explosion of possible solutions, 3) Many dimensions and/or criteria, and 4) Difficulty in quantitatively rating the worth of a strategy.

When faced with these circumstances, people often attempt to: 1) Recall a course-of-action that worked in previous similar circumstances, 2) Caucus to arrive at a consensus (i.e., group-think), or 3) Identify a dominant criteria and assemble a strategy around it.

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids COA/Detailed Planning Overview

PlanOptimization

ActiveOptions

COAPlanner

Detailed Plan

TargetAssessment

Target Selection Process

ActiveTargets

ResponseOptions

TargetStatus

Viable AreaTargetsName

WeaponArenaType

NameLocaleLocationTypeValueHardnessMobile

Option, Target...

NameTypeArenaWeapon

JCSOrder St

a tic

Sta

tus

Dynamic Status

(Har

dnes

s , M

obili

ty, e

tc.)

COACase Base

ConstraintsSelection Criteria

COA NameKeywords

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids Strategy Determination - COA View

This screen displays the “goodness-of-match” of the input Planning Order against previously stored cases to aid the analyst in generating a new Course-of-Action.

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids Detailed Planning - Operator View

This screen allows the analyst to evaluate the effectiveness of additional plans and instantly see the diversity and details of each plan.

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TRWGeneral PurposeDecision Aids Summary

We have refined, tailored, and demonstrated innovative decision tools that span the full spectrum of JOPES command and control decision-making in these areas:

• Situation diagnosis using a Dempster-Shafer Belief algorithm

• Pattern discovery using Data Mining algorithms

• Strategy determination using a Case-Based Reasoning algorithm

• Detailed planning using a Genetic Algorithm

We have demonstrated the applicability of these algorithms and support tools in multiple mission domains:

• IO/IW Defensive Counter-Information

• Aerospace Operations Center (AOC)  

• Anti-terrorism

• Strategic Deterrent Forces (SDF) and National Missile Defense (NMD)

For more information, contact the author at Dennis.Ellis@trw.com