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Thumb Rules

“What does it take to build an Academic Fleet?”

RADM R. F. Pittenger (Ret.)

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 14 Sept 2010

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Disclaimer

The views expressed in this presentation are the author’s and not those of: WHOI, WHOI-ites,the USN, USNA, UNOLS, COL, NSF, ONR, NSIA, NAS, NSB or OSB.

Just mine!!

Doesn’t mean they are wrong…..

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Do we need any ships?

What does it take?

Motivation

Time

Money

People

Summary

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Need Ships?

•Are ships a necessary, if expensive, aspect of oceanography. Some have said, "No!” - Munk/Wunsch 1978--"wire the oceans"

-Acoustic thermometry/tomography -Do it from space; with UAVs -Observatories -UUVs, AUVs -Gliders, Drifters—Stommel, Swallow -Tele-presence

Predictions of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. Studies and reviews tend to say we need more robust ships.

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Motivation

WW II: German U-boats,-ASW, Japanese Occupation- Amphibious and Submarine ops, Underwater Explosives, bio-fouling.

Basic understanding of the ocean environment

Cold War: Soviet Subs/Nuclear Subs, Nuclear Missiles. Detailed understanding and exploitation of the ocean. Pacing

the threat.

Science Drivers, Big Science Programs, Exploration

--TOGA, WOCE, JGOFS, RIDGE, deep submergence…

Post -Cold War…………?? PC threat. Climate Change? It helps to have well defined threats to National Security.

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TimeIt always takes longer than we think.

ARV to AARV: 1980 to 2012

Alvin to HROV: 1992 to 2011

AGOR23 Class: 1983 to 1997

Administrative and budget dead times can not be ignored.

It takes 15-20 years from idea to product. Many budget cycles.

Remember that NAVSEA or NSF MREFC process is on critical path.

Studies don’t always make them better or get them faster.

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MoneyIt always costs more than estimates.

Atlantis II $5m vs. $3m 1.66% Revelle/Atlantis $52m vs. $35m 1.48% Knorr/Melville $52m vs. $38m 1.56% AR(R)V $150m vs. (61) (75) (100) HROV $35m vs. (6) (12) (22)

--50-300% more than they think it ‘should’ cost. --Annual operating costs are 5-7% of acquisition. --Science costs are 2-4 times O & M.

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PeopleIt takes people with fire & power

Burke, Watkins, Lehman

Saalfeld, Ramberg, Dieter, Jordhe, Kalman, Winokur

Revelle, Knauss, Iselin, Fye, Shor, Dinsmore, Byrnes

UNOLS Knox, Johnson, Wiebe,DeSilva

Fire , Power, Patience and Persistence

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Summary

It helps to have well defined threats to National Security. (And Science Drivers)

It always takes longer than we think/plan/hope.

It always costs more than we estimate/dream. It takes the right people in the right places. And, yes, we need ships!

• Thank you

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Examples of Past “Models”

• LDEO purchased two ships--off shore--EWING and LANGSETH-- and NSF paid off the ship and cost of money thru the day-rate. Will LANGSETH, a special purpose vessel be fully utilized?

• NSF/OPP decided to have Chouest build their Antarctic ships, Palmer and Gould, on lease. It is costing them an outrageous amount to continue but the Chouest Bros have political clout. It used to be against OMB rules to charter for more than 10yrs--cheaper to own; is that still the case?

• NAVSEA tried buying serially produced ships--mud boats. To save time and non-recurring costs. The ships they did build were ….

• Saving money through buying berthing vans has been tried w/o success—Gyre, Thompson…

• The Schmitt study recommended trying the lease of ships for special purposes.

• Numerous past studies and polls of the community have endorsed the UNOLS management model.

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