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The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol

Reaching Global Agreements 1997Reaching Global Agreements 1997

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Key Idea – only the oneKey Idea – only the one

• Environmental abuse has serious Environmental abuse has serious consequences. Its causes need to be tackled consequences. Its causes need to be tackled to ensure a more sustainable future.to ensure a more sustainable future.

• But there are still 3 sections to study …..But there are still 3 sections to study …..

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Section 3 (new)Section 3 (new)

• Managing the causes (anti-pollution legislation, Managing the causes (anti-pollution legislation, alternative energy sources, international alternative energy sources, international cooperation) and adapting to the cooperation) and adapting to the consequences of global warming and climate consequences of global warming and climate change.change.

• A case study of attempts to tackle the problems of A case study of attempts to tackle the problems of global warming and climate change (eg UN global warming and climate change (eg UN conference at Rio de Janeiro, Kyoto Protocol and its conference at Rio de Janeiro, Kyoto Protocol and its successor).successor).

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What is the Kyoto Protocol?What is the Kyoto Protocol?

• A global Agreement that set targets for A global Agreement that set targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissionsreducing greenhouse gas emissions

• 175 countries signed up175 countries signed up

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• Participation in the Kyoto Protocol, as of June 2009, Participation in the Kyoto Protocol, as of June 2009, where dark green indicates the countries that have where dark green indicates the countries that have signed and ratified the treaty, grey is not yet decided and signed and ratified the treaty, grey is not yet decided and red is no intention to ratify red is no intention to ratify

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Kyoto Protocol Aims:Kyoto Protocol Aims:

• Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), aimed at combating global warming.(UNFCCC), aimed at combating global warming.

• The aim of the treaty was "stabilization of The aim of the treaty was "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system."interference with the climate system."

• The Protocol was initially adopted on 11 The Protocol was initially adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and entered into December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and entered into force on 16 February 2005 force on 16 February 2005

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• Under the Protocol, 37 industrialized Under the Protocol, 37 industrialized countries (called "Annex I countries") countries (called "Annex I countries") commit themselves to a reduction of four commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and also fluorine gas hexafluoride) and also fluorine gas compounds.compounds.

• Annex I countries agreed to reduce their Annex I countries agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from the 1990 level. Emission limits 5.2% from the 1990 level. Emission limits do not include emissions by international do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping (in the too-hard box) aviation and shipping (in the too-hard box)

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There were a number of ‘Articles’ that set There were a number of ‘Articles’ that set out to achieve thisout to achieve this

• Article 2: ways to fight GHGArticle 2: ways to fight GHG• 2.1.a.i Enhance energy efficiency2.1.a.i Enhance energy efficiency• 2.1.a.ii Protect and enhance the sinks2.1.a.ii Protect and enhance the sinks

– A carbon sink is anything that absorbs more carbon that it releases whilst a carbon source is anything that releases more carbon than they absorb.

• 2.1.a.iii Promote sustainable agriculture – by 2.1.a.iii Promote sustainable agriculture – by promoting farming methods that produce less GHG, promoting farming methods that produce less GHG, especially in developing countriesespecially in developing countries

• 2.1.a.iv Research and promote renewable energy 2.1.a.iv Research and promote renewable energy sources (wind, water, solar, biomass)sources (wind, water, solar, biomass)

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Article 2.1.a.vArticle 2.1.a.vPhase out any incentives for ‘bad Phase out any incentives for ‘bad

practice’practice’In some countries government policies or loopholes in subsidy regulations actually promote 'bad practice' in GHG emissions. Phase these out will push business and industry towards less polluting practices.

Article 2.1.a.viiArticle 2.1.a.viiLimit GHG from transportLimit GHG from transport

GHG from transport is a big problem and getting bigger. Several government initiatives around the world have already arisen from Kyoto to cut transport GHG emissions.

The development of dual fuel and electric vehicle technologies holds a great potential for cutting down this source of GHG. Some American states have set targets for clean fuel vehicles.

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Article 2.1.a.viiiArticle 2.1.a.viiiLimit methane emissions through Limit methane emissions through

recovery and userecovery and use

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, having about 20 times the climate forcing effect of carbon dioxide. Big man-made producers of methane are landfill sites

Large landfill sites now commonly have these methane power stations which have the double attraction of producing energy and getting rid of the methane, albeit a carbon dioxide. Solid waste energy plants already operate successfully in the UK, using the methane generated from chicken manure to create power

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Article 2.1.bArticle 2.1.bCooperateCooperate

A theme which runs through much of the Kyoto protocol is for countries to cooperate. Sharing both advances in GHG technology and science. the greatest achievement of the protocol so far is to get so many countries together and talking on a central issue.

Article 2.2.Article 2.2.

Cut GHG from aviationCut GHG from aviation

This one was never implemented as no-one could decide who would monitor it as international travel made an agreement to hard to reach.

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Article 2.3.Article 2.3.Be careful of wider impact - avoid adverse Be careful of wider impact - avoid adverse

effectseffects

A cautionary note in Kyoto is to be careful of the wider impacts GHG reduction schemes may have. Some may be too costly to maintain for the benefit they provide, others may cause an unreasonable degree of disruption to the populace, industry etc.

Hydroelectric dams are a good example of this. At first sight they seem to be all to the good as far as reducing GHG goes. However, not only does their construction often mean the loss of much land,and the displacement of its animals and humans, it can also end it up to be quite a big GHG emitter. Much of the organic matter washed into the lake behind the dam decays anaerobically in the depths, rather than aerobically as it would have done in the original river. This anaerobic break down produces lots of methane, a more powerful greenhouse gas than the normal CO2.

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Article 3.1Article 3.1Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-20125% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012

This article states that countries will stick to their agreed commitments, but does not specify what the penalties will be if you don’t. The EU and others wanted real penalties for failure, but other countries disagreed. This was one of the sources of contention over which the EU finally gave in to at the Bonn conference.

Article 3.2Article 3.2Everyone must have shown progress by 2005Everyone must have shown progress by 2005

The idea of this target is to get countries actively reducing their emissions before the first commitment period arrives (2008).

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Article 3.3Article 3.3Verifiable changes since 1990 in GHG Verifiable changes since 1990 in GHG emissions by sources and removals by emissions by sources and removals by

sinks due to direct human-induced sinks due to direct human-induced land-use change and forestry can be land-use change and forestry can be

used to meet commitmentsused to meet commitmentsThe key problem here was how to establish what changes have occurred, again a source of much wrangling between countries.

Although cutting emissions from fossil fuels should be the focus of efforts to limit global warming, forestry and land management activities can provide part of the answer. With their being a recognised part of Kyoto GHG balancing - tree planting schemes like this one in Mexico could become commonplace.

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Article 3.4Article 3.4

Everyone must supply their level Everyone must supply their level of ‘carbon stocks’ in 1990 so the of ‘carbon stocks’ in 1990 so the change since can be estimated. change since can be estimated. BUT what sinks, sources and BUT what sinks, sources and

‘additional activities’ which can be ‘additional activities’ which can be added or subtracted from GHG added or subtracted from GHG

reduction commitments?reduction commitments?

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Article 4Article 4

Countries can meet their commitments Countries can meet their commitments togethertogether

Article 5Article 5

All countries will have in place, at least a year All countries will have in place, at least a year before the first commitment period (2008), a before the first commitment period (2008), a

national system for measuring GHG emission national system for measuring GHG emission changeschanges

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The carbon budget for the earth as a whole is extremely complex, but our best models of the system suggest an increase in carbon in the atmosphere of about 3Gt per year. These kind of budgets need to be formulated as accurately as possible for each country

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Article 6Article 6Joint implementation - Countries can work Joint implementation - Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction together to meet their emission reduction

targetstargetsThis is one of the so called 'flexibility mechanisms' designed to help rich (annexe 1) countries meet their Kyoto commitment other than by directly cutting in their own emissions. It caused some of the biggest arguments , but it is agreed that without them the agreed reduction targets would have had to have been much smaller. Russia, currently going through economic instability but with a range of ‘dirty’ technology has been a large recipient of investment from the west, that then claim the savings made in emissions to off-set their own

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Article 7Article 7All countries will supply the extra All countries will supply the extra

information needed with the numbers it information needed with the numbers it gives i.e. perceived wider impactsgives i.e. perceived wider impacts

Article 8Article 8

All the information given by each country will All the information given by each country will be reviewed by expert, independent, review be reviewed by expert, independent, review

teamsteams

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Article 9Article 9

The protocol will be regularly reviewed in The protocol will be regularly reviewed in light of the best information available at light of the best information available at

the timethe time

Article 10Article 10

All countries should develop national and/or All countries should develop national and/or regional programmes to both limit GHG regional programmes to both limit GHG

emissions and improve the quality of GHG emissions and improve the quality of GHG data via consistent methods. data via consistent methods. Cooperate Cooperate

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Article 11Article 11

The richer countries will provide funds and The richer countries will provide funds and technology to developing countries to help technology to developing countries to help

them better advance towards GHG reductionthem better advance towards GHG reduction

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Article 12Article 12The Clean Development MechanismThe Clean Development Mechanism

This is another 'flexibility mechanisms' designed to help rich (annexe I) countries meet their Kyoto commitment. The clean development mechanism allows governments or private entities in rich countries to set up emission reduction projects in developing countries. They get credit for these reductions as 'certified emission reductions (CER's). This system is different form the Joint Implementation as it promotes sustainable development on developing countries.CDM can use afforestation (planting somewhere new) and CDM can use afforestation (planting somewhere new) and reforestation (replanting where there once was some), or some reforestation (replanting where there once was some), or some other emissions reduction project like a rural electrification other emissions reduction project like a rural electrification project using solar panels in a developing country .project using solar panels in a developing country .[Recall they were also going to pay for not cutting down trees but [Recall they were also going to pay for not cutting down trees but that was delayed until the implementation of REDD] that was delayed until the implementation of REDD]

CDM is a scheme

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Article 12.5Article 12.5

(a) Voluntary participation by each (a) Voluntary participation by each countrycountry

(b) Real, measurable, and long-(b) Real, measurable, and long-term benefits related to mitigating term benefits related to mitigating

climate changeclimate change

(c) Reductions must be additional (c) Reductions must be additional to those which would occur to those which would occur

anywayanyway

Some rules for the CDM are shown above.

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Article 17Article 17

The final flexibility mechanism. A tradable carbon credit unit called AAU's (Assigned Amount Units) has been proposed which would represent one tonne of CO2 emissions. The advantages of this trading are that it drives countries to better efficiency in their own greenhouse gas emissions. Bur there is a worry that some rich countries will simply 'buy off' the GHG they produce and not take any action themselves. the idea of a 'cap on the amount of trading has been suggested, but has produced even more argument'.

Emissions trading - countries can trade in Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’‘emission units’

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Kyoto Protocol Aims:Kyoto Protocol Aims:

• Share of CO2 Share of CO2 Emissions in 1990 Emissions in 1990

• Industrialised countries Industrialised countries to cut emissions to 5% to cut emissions to 5% below 1990 levels by below 1990 levels by 2008/122008/12

• Had varying targets EU Had varying targets EU by 8% and Japan 5% (It by 8% and Japan 5% (It is a lower polluter) is a lower polluter)

• Countries like Iceland Countries like Iceland were allowed to were allowed to increase emissionsincrease emissions

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Problems with signing upProblems with signing up

• Some delayed in signing up to Kyoto such as Some delayed in signing up to Kyoto such as Russia who signed in 2004Russia who signed in 2004

• USA initially signed but then withdrew in 2001 USA initially signed but then withdrew in 2001 following GW Bush’s election (USA emit 25% following GW Bush’s election (USA emit 25% of world emissions)of world emissions)

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How big a problem was the American Issue?How big a problem was the American Issue?

• The US was the biggest emitter at the time (36.1%) The US was the biggest emitter at the time (36.1%) - it has since been overtaken by China – - it has since been overtaken by China –

• So if they were going to continue polluting, why So if they were going to continue polluting, why should other countries bother? Small countries should other countries bother? Small countries efforts would have little overall impact on the total efforts would have little overall impact on the total GHG. GHG.

• George W was even saying that climate change George W was even saying that climate change was (a) not happening and (b) if there was some was (a) not happening and (b) if there was some variation it was natural.variation it was natural.

• He did however admit that being dependent on He did however admit that being dependent on foreign (especially Muslim) oil supplies was a foreign (especially Muslim) oil supplies was a security issue and so went full tilt into producing security issue and so went full tilt into producing biofuels from corn and soya, offering big money to biofuels from corn and soya, offering big money to his farmers to change from food production to his farmers to change from food production to biofuel production.biofuel production.

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How big a problem was the American Issue?How big a problem was the American Issue?• This forced up the world prices of food and encouraged This forced up the world prices of food and encouraged

deforestation of the Amazon, to grow soya to feed the deforestation of the Amazon, to grow soya to feed the beef cattle of the developed world.beef cattle of the developed world.

• Meanwhile GW, whose ascent in politics was largely Meanwhile GW, whose ascent in politics was largely funded by the oil companies, remained friends with the funded by the oil companies, remained friends with the oil barons – not an insignificant issue so far as he was oil barons – not an insignificant issue so far as he was concerned.concerned.

• The Republican Party listened to its other big funders, The Republican Party listened to its other big funders, the transnational companies (TNCs) who could not see the transnational companies (TNCs) who could not see the possibilities of more new business from the new the possibilities of more new business from the new technologies, but saw only costs and problems from technologies, but saw only costs and problems from having anything to do with climate change. So they having anything to do with climate change. So they were and still are all in favour of the no-change policy were and still are all in favour of the no-change policy that opting out of Kyoto allowed them to follow.that opting out of Kyoto allowed them to follow.

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Successes?Successes?

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So what for the future?So what for the future?

• Renewable energy can only supply 10-15% Renewable energy can only supply 10-15% of the UK’s energy needsof the UK’s energy needs

• Must replace coal fired with nuclear power Must replace coal fired with nuclear power stationsstations

• Building nuclear power plants takes timeBuilding nuclear power plants takes time

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What is Carbon What is Carbon offsetting?offsetting?

• Forests and woodland cover Forests and woodland cover 10% of the UK and they absorb 10% of the UK and they absorb COCO2 2 and store it and store it

• Several UK and EU schemes Several UK and EU schemes allow businesses to offset their allow businesses to offset their emissions by planting treesemissions by planting trees

• However there is a limit to the However there is a limit to the amount of COamount of CO22 that they can that they can hold and therefore are limited in hold and therefore are limited in viabilityviability

• UK woodland removes 4 million UK woodland removes 4 million tonnes a yeartonnes a year

• UK emits 150 million tonnes it UK emits 150 million tonnes it would take a huge increase in would take a huge increase in woodland to offset all of UK woodland to offset all of UK emissionsemissions

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AlternativesAlternatives

Biomass fuelsBiomass fuels Wood fuelWood fuel Ethanol and bio dieselEthanol and bio diesel Alcohol fermented from Alcohol fermented from

sugarsugar Oil extracted from Oil extracted from

soybeanssoybeans Methane Gas coming Methane Gas coming

from rubbish dumpsfrom rubbish dumps

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ProblemsProblems

• Unfortunately these rely on removing plants Unfortunately these rely on removing plants from the planet thus removing a carbon sink from the planet thus removing a carbon sink and need to be followed by mass replanting and need to be followed by mass replanting schemesschemes

• Growing biofuels reduces the land available Growing biofuels reduces the land available to grow food and increases food prices as to grow food and increases food prices as well as leaving more people liable to an well as leaving more people liable to an inadequate dietinadequate diet

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Economic ImpactsEconomic Impacts

• More extreme weather leads to increased More extreme weather leads to increased costs equal to 1% of GDPcosts equal to 1% of GDP

• 2-32-3ooC rise in temps reducing global economic C rise in temps reducing global economic output by 3%output by 3%

• Poor countries ability to cope would be Poor countries ability to cope would be reduced with lack of basics like waterreduced with lack of basics like water

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Copenhagen was supposed to be the next Copenhagen was supposed to be the next stepstep

• But no protocol was signed.But no protocol was signed.• However, it is not all disasterHowever, it is not all disaster

– The Americans are on board The Americans are on board – The Chinese and the Indians are both committed to The Chinese and the Indians are both committed to

reducing the impact of their growth – this does not reducing the impact of their growth – this does not mean they are cutting emissions in total but for each mean they are cutting emissions in total but for each unit of production, the emission will be reduced unit of production, the emission will be reduced substantiallysubstantially

– The Brazilians have reduced deforestation for the first The Brazilians have reduced deforestation for the first time in many years (partly due to the recession, it is time in many years (partly due to the recession, it is true) by 45% on last year but they are committed to true) by 45% on last year but they are committed to reducing deforestation by 80% by 2020.reducing deforestation by 80% by 2020.

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Copenhagen was supposed to be the next Copenhagen was supposed to be the next step but …step but …

It may be worth looking at the stuff on Cancun It may be worth looking at the stuff on Cancun (COP 16 2010) in the blog(COP 16 2010) in the blog http://lindym.wordpress.com/2010/11/27/cancun-hopes-to-serve-oven-ready-redd-deal/

and other article with Cancun – do a search – top right of and other article with Cancun – do a search – top right of the page.the page.

Also the Durban round in December 2011, COP Also the Durban round in December 2011, COP 17, at17, athttp://lindym.wordpress.com/2011/12/21/how-can-cop17-durban-be-seen-as-a-success/

Also as another example of a current impact:Also as another example of a current impact:http://lindym.wordpress.com/2011/12/24/shock-as-retreat-of-arctic-sea-ice-releases-deadly-greenhouse-gas/