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The Future of Transportation:  What have we been doing? Where should we be going?

Lisa Aultman-Hall, Professor and Director

Transportation Research Center

School of Engineering

University of Vermont

What have we been doing?

• Building roads and bridges, and transit systems, and bike paths etc

• Managing operations to minimize congestion

• Ensuring safety

• Some environmental mitigation

What should we be doing?

• Mobility AND accessibility• Efficiency -- energy and costs

• Connecting land use and transportation• Designing demand instead of

responding to it• Creating a robust and diverse system

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1. The Transportation Research Center

2. How did we get to this Transportation System?

3. What does the future look like?

What does the future look like?

• Policy• Change in performance metrics (VMT and

speed)• “Public good” versus “market commodity” and

appropriate private sector role• Dedicated funding versus general funds• Continued devolution from federal to local/state• Re-invention of the federal role – what is the

national transportation system?

What does the future look like?

• Urban areas

– Land use change (partially due to demographics)

– Active transportation including new vehicles

– Transit

– Road pricing

– Carshare

– EVs

What does the future look like?

• Intercity– Less air travel (likely biofuel based)– More trains– A smaller variation on trains for mass

transit that is electrically powered (gondolas some say)

– Technology for effective ride sharing

What does the future look like?

• Rural Areas– Traditional transit not feasible– Older and poorer population– Longer distance to services + energy costs– Biking and walking have limited potential– Growth is slow, so land use change is slow– States without a large congested metropolitan

area have few options for revenue

What does the future look like?

• Rural Areas– Telecommunications is critical to the mobility system– Mobility hubs– Strategic disinvestment– Innovative demand responsive transit (taxi-like or jitneys)– PHEVs and eventually EVs– Technology for ride sharing– Employer-based programs– Is there a role for pack animals?

More expensive and lower levels of service

What does the future look like?

• Questions for Vermont– How will we use Quebec as our gateway to the world?– Will the rail connection between Montreal and Boston/NYC go

thru Vermont?– How will tourism change as transportation energy costs rise?– Will transportation system change facilitate sustainable

agricultural development?– Will our strong village centers give us an advantage over

other rural areas?– Will water transportation become viable?– How will we raise revenue given our current dependence on

federal funds?