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The Changing Dynamics of the Global Market for the Highly-skilled
Andrew Wyckoff
OECD
Advancing Knowledge and the Knowledge Economy
National Academies, Washington, D.C.
10 January 2005
2
3
300 350 400 450 500 550 600
Hong Kong-ChinaFinland
KoreaNetherlands
LiechtensteinJ apan
CanadaBelgium
Macao-ChinaSwitzerland
AustraliaNew Zealand
Czech Rep.I celand
DenmarkFrance
SwedenAustria
GermanyI reland
Slovak Rep.Norway
LuxembourgPoland
HungarySpainLatviaUSA
Russian FedPortugal
I talyGreeceSerbiaTurkey
UruguayThailand
MexicoI ndonesia
TunisiaBrazil
OECD (2004), Learning for tomorrow’s world: First results from PISA 2003, Table 2.5c, p.356.
PISA: Mean mathematics scores – overall (All)
US mean score ranks in range 24th to 28th in 41 countries.
4
US as the benchmark
5
Competitiveness Rankings
Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2004 and World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report, 2003-04
IMD
2004/2003
WEF
2004/2003
1 US / US FIN / FIN
2 SING / LUX US / US
3 CAN / FIN SWE / SWE
4 AUST / SING TAIW / DNK
5 ICE / DNK DNK / TAIW
6 HK / CAN NOR / SING
6
How could the authors of “A Nation at Risk” have gotten it so wrong?
7
Foreign PhD Students
010203040
Italy
Mexico
Slovak Republic
Turkey
Finland
Portugal
Czech Republic
New Zealand
Spain
Iceland
Austria
Norway
Canada
Denmark
Sweden
Australia
United States
Belgium
United Kingdom
Switzerland
%
26 143
78 884
0 2 500 5 000 7 500 10 000
United States
United Kingdom
Spain
Australia
Switzerland
Canada
Sweden
Austria
Belgium
Finland
Czech Republic
Portugal
Norway
Denmark
Turkey
New Zealand
Italy
Slovak Republic
Mexico
Iceland
% of total enrolment, 2001 Number by host country, 2001
8
% of 1998-01 Foreign S&E US Degree Recipients with “plans to stay” in the US
0102030405060708090
100
China
India UK
Total
Canad
a
Taiwan
Germ
any
Source: NSF, S&E indicators, 2004
9
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
USA CAN AUS GBR DEU FRA ESP CHE NLD SWE
* Age 15+, ISCED 5/6
Stock of Highly Skilled* Immigrants in OECD Countries
Source: Dumont and LeMaitre, 2004
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Changing Dynamics of the Market
9/11 EU & Japan China & India MNEs
11
12
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1989
/90
1990
/91
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
Annual Percent Change of International Student Enrolment in US Higher-education Institutions
Source: IIE (2004), “Open Doors Report,” http://opendoors.iienetwork.org/
13
New Demand: the EU & Japan
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EU Lisbon & Barcelona Goals
Barcelona 2002
[o]verall spending on R&D and innovation …should be increased with the aim of approaching 3% of GDP by 2010. Two-thirds of this new investment should come from the private sector.”
Lisbon 2000“The Union has today set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade: to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion.
15-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
0% 1% 2% 3%
Public sector Private sector Total
Additional Researchers Required to meet EC Barcelona 3% R&D Target
16
Japanese Foreign Workers w Special and/or Technical Skills
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001
Source: METI, 2003
17
New Demand: China & India
18
Number of Chinese students enrolled in tertiary education in the United States,
Japan and the EU, thousands
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1998 1999 2000 2001
United States Japan EU
19
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Source: Weiguo and Zhaohui, 2004
Doctoral Degrees Awarded in China
20
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
United States EU China Japan
*
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Korea Chinese Taipei Singapore
Number of researchers, thousands of FTE
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Growth of R&D expenditure, annual average growth rate 1991-2001
(based on national currencies in constant prices)
0
4
8
12
16
China (1991-02)
Singapore (1994-02)
Korea Chinese Taipei(1995-01)
United States(1991-03)
EU Japan
%
Source: Schaaper, 2004
22
Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D(2002, $Bill GDP PPPs)
US 277.1
Japan 106.8
China 72.0
Germany 53.9
France 36.6
UK 31.0
Korea 23.5
Source: OECD, MSTI, 2004/1
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0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
China Japan European Union United States
Korea Hong Kong, China Singapore
Note: Data are by priority year and are provisional.
Source: OECD, Patent Database, July 2003
Patent applications to the SIPO, by residence of inventors
24
338
254
206
130
100117
97103
53
84
5871
5638
78
1594332012
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
China United States Chinese Taipei Other countries
USPTO Patents by Chinese Inventors
By Priority Date
Source: OECD, Patent Database, December 2004
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Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping
1. National Systems of Innovation (NSI)– Short-term: must compete in this global market
– Long-term: need to increase indigenous supply
– Increased global competition will make it will be more difficult for young researchers to be recognised, publish and get appointments at top-institutions (D.Hicks)
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Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping
2. Macroeconomic Effects
– Demand , Supply , then Price
– Return flows will diffuse and create pressure to adopt push best practices (Saxenian)
– Need for more global coordination of economic policies and data (esp. MNEs & flows of highly skilled) to guide these policies.
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Policy Implications: an Initial Mapping
3. Extending the Global K-Network
– Need to reconfigure the global knowledge network,
– Tap into the “transnational technical communities”
– Pivotal role of the US
– Coordinating role of the IOs.
