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1 Telepresence: Telepresence: An Umbrella Research An Umbrella Research Topic Topic Jim Gray Microsoft Research [email protected] http:// research.Microsoft.com/ ~Gray/

1 Telepresence: An Umbrella Research Topic Jim Gray Microsoft Research [email protected] Gray

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Page 1: 1 Telepresence: An Umbrella Research Topic Jim Gray Microsoft Research Gray@Microsoft.com Gray

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Telepresence: Telepresence: An Umbrella Research TopicAn Umbrella Research Topic

Jim GrayMicrosoft [email protected]://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/

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Federal Research Support Federal Research Support Nerve Center of ScienceNerve Center of ScienceIf it’s not broke, don’t fix it.If it’s not broke, don’t fix it.But….But….

US Science is the engine of progressBUT…..

Best and brightest are spending

increasing time fund raising Seems excessive to me. Venture capital community is

richer and more generous

than Federal Support

THE

LONG

BOOM

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Cyberspace is a Cyberspace is a New WorldNew World.. We have discovered a “new continent”. It is changing how we learn, work, and play.

– 1 T$/y industry– 1 T$ new wealth since 1993– 30% of US economic growth since 1993

There is a gold rush to stake out territory. But we also need explorers:

Lewis & Clark expeditions Universities to teach the next generation(s)

Governments, industry, and philanthropists should fund long-term research.

THELONG

BOOM

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19701960 1980 1990

WorkstationsLisp machine, StanfordXerox Alto

Apollo, Sun

NetworkingArpanet, InternetEthernet, Pup, Datakit

DECnet, LANs, TCP/IP

GraphicsSketchpad, UtahGM/IBM, LucasFilm

E&S, SGI, PIXAR,..

WindowsEnglebart, RochesterAlto, Smalltalk

Star, Mac, Microsoft

Research Investments Pay OffResearch Investments Pay OffCSTB –NRC Evolving the High-Performance Computing and Communications Imitative to Support the nations Information Infrastructure, NA Press, CSTB –NRC Evolving the High-Performance Computing and Communications Imitative to Support the nations Information Infrastructure, NA Press, Washington DC, 1995.Washington DC, 1995.

Time-sharing CTSS, Multics, SSDUnix

SDS 940, 360/67 VMS

Government fundedIndustrial

Billion Dollar/year Industry

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1970 1980 1990 2000

Relational Data BasesBerkeley, Wisc,… IBM

Oracle, IBM,…

Parallel DBs Tokyo,Wisconsin, UCLAICL, IBM

ICL, Teradata, Tandem

Research Investments Pay OffResearch Investments Pay Off

Data Mining (complex queries)

Wisc, Stanford, …IBM, Arbor,…

IRI, Arbor, Plato, …

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Why Can’t Industry Fund IT Research?Why Can’t Industry Fund IT Research? It does: IBM (5.8%), Intel(13%), Lucent (12%), Microsoft(14.%), Sun (12%), ...

– R&D is ~5%-15% (50 B$ of 500 B$) AD is 10% of that (5 B$)

– Long-Range Research is 10% of that 500 M$2,500 researchers and university support

– Compaq: 4.8% R&D (1.3 B$ of 27.3 B$).AOL: 3.7% D, ?R (96 M$ of 2.6 B$) – Dell:1.6% R&D (204 M$ of 12.6 B$), EDS, MCI-WorldCom, ….

To be competitive, some companies cannot make large long-term research investments.The Xerox/PARC story:

created Mac, Adobe, 3Com…

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PITAC ReportPITAC ReportPresidential IT Advisory CommitteePresidential IT Advisory Committeehttp://www.ccic.gov/ac/report/http://www.ccic.gov/ac/report/ Findings:

– Software construction is a mess: needs breakthroughs.– We do not know how to scale the Internet 100x

Security, manageability, services, terabit per second issues.

– USG needs high-performance computing (Simulation) but market is not providing vector-supers – just providing processor arrays.

– Trained people are in very short supply. Recommendations:

– Lewis & Clark expeditions to 21st century.– Increase long-term research funding by 1.4B$/y.– Re-invigorate university research & teaching.– Facilitate immigration of technical experts.

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Outline (ambitious!)Outline (ambitious!) Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see & hear? The architecture revolution:

processing moves to transducers

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Microsoft Research -- 1991Microsoft Research -- 1991 Founded in 1991 Goal:

pursue strategic technologies for Microsoft

Original research groups:– Natural Language Processing– Operating Systems– Programming Languages

Overall size < 20 at the end of 1992

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Microsoft Research -- 1999Microsoft Research -- 1999 400 Researchers in 25 areas

– Operating systems to Statistical Physics Research lab locations:

– Redmond, Cambridge, San Francisco, Beijing Internationally recognized research teams

– Hundreds of publications, presentations– Leadership roles in professional societies,

journals, conferences

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MS Research AreasMS Research Areas Operating systems, languages, compilers,

virtual machines, networking, wireless computing, fault-tolerance, large scale servers, security

Natural language, speech, vision, graphics, decision theory, information retrieval, UI, collaboration, statistics, signal processing

Cryptography, statistical physics and discrete mathematics

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Growing FastGrowing Fast

Grew 20x from ‘92 to ‘99 Decided in ‘97 to grow by a 3x in 3 years

– 200 in FY97 => 600 in FY00, primarily in Redmond

Major impact on MS products– Virtually all MS products shipped today use

technology from MS Research Key role in MS growth

– Pioneering research in software that allows computers to see, hear, speak and understand

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Microsoft Research Microsoft Research PhilosophyPhilosophy

University organizational model– Flat structure, critical mass groups

Open research environment– Aggressive publication of research results

in literature and on world wide web

– Frequent visitors, daily seminars

– Over 100 visiting professors and interns in 1998

– Over 110 visiting researchers in 1998

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What I Do.What I Do.

Work for the government!– CSTB, PITAC(software, ngi), LoC study, ....

Work on scaleable systems:– 1 Billion Transactions Per Day Cluster

– TerraServer

– New: Sloan Digital Sky Survey

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Outline (ambitious!)Outline (ambitious!) Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see & hear? The architecture revolution:

processing moves to transducers

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Gordon Bell on Gordon Bell on Tele PresentationsTele Presentations

http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

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Motivation:Motivation:TelepresentationsTelepresentations

• Presenter and/or audience telepresent

NOT: meeting or collaboration settings

Forget the nasty social issues!

Mostly one-way

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TelepresentationTelepresentationElementsElements Slides Audio Video Script,

text comments, hyperlinks,etc.

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Telepresentations:Telepresentations:The EssentialsThe Essentials

Slide and audio a must Add some video

(low quality) to make us feel good

Storage and transmission costs low

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Telepresentations:Telepresentations:The Killer AppThe Killer App

Increased attendance & lower travel costs

Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real

space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97

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Today’sToday’sExperimentExperiment

Would you like to pause, rewind, browse? Do you wish you could have seen this

– At home?– At another time?

How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?

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University Lectures OnlineUniversity Lectures Online Research lectures on-line & on-demand http://murl.microsoft.com/ Will get UVC content Available to anyone anywhere

– T1 good, 28.8 OK Generated by CMU, MIT, MSR, Stanford, UW, Xerox Hosted by MSR

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Outline (ambitious!)Outline (ambitious!) Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see &

hear? The architecture revolution:

processing moves to transducers

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Changing role of computationChanging role of computation Past: Computers for:

– computing (Cray)– business data processing (IBM)– “document” creation (PC)

Future: Computers for: – understanding & learning– communicating– consuming & entertaining

Requires new User Interface to machines

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FlowsFlows

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Making “Flows” a RealityMaking “Flows” a Reality Computer Graphics

– Creating realistic looking environments, people

Computer Vision– Analyzing posture, gaze, gestures

Speech input/output Natural Language

– Analysis, IR Implicit requests for information

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Building life-like human Building life-like human characterscharacters

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How to fail at Tele-ConferencesHow to fail at Tele-Conferences

1. Eliminate gaze awareness and sense of space of a normal group setting

2. Have long audio latencies & poor audio quality

3. Use incompatible equipment4. Make it much harder to initiate the call

to make a phone call

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Gaze Awareness & Gaze Awareness & Sense of SpaceSense of Space

Is anyone paying attention?

Who is talking (where is sound coming from?

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Gaze AwarenessGaze Awareness

Looking at screen:the forehead shot

Looking at camera:the glowering shot

Looking at YOU.

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You can’t just move the eyesYou can’t just move the eyes

Glowering

Surprise

Boredom

Interest

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Mona Lisa EffectMona Lisa Effect Eyes and nose indicated gaze

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Spatialized Audio & VideoSpatialized Audio & VideoPointing “nose vector” at targetPointing “nose vector” at target Map video onto

wire frame Rotate frame to

point in space Move (fake) eyes

in frame (>30°)to point at target

Project voice on that vector.

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Recognizing gesturesRecognizing gestures

Live videoLive videoArea of Area of motionmotion H flowH flow V flowV flow

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Generating life-like speech Generating life-like speech from textual datafrom textual data Data-driven stochastic speech

– Natural sounding– Rapid, automatic customizability

Examples– Synthetic voice w/ transplanted speech

contours

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AT&T Voder, 1962, by Homer Dudley– Daisy (Inspiration for HAL’s voice in 2001)

Microsoft Research Whistler, 1997– Scarborough Fair

Artificial singingArtificial singing

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Analyzing languageAnalyzing language Language recognition shipped in Word 97 General purpose text-critiquing,

summarization, Japanese word-breaking

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Inside The Office Inside The Office Grammar CheckerGrammar Checker

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Understanding language: Understanding language: MindNetMindNet

A huge language knowledge base

Automatically created from dictionaries

Words (nodes) linked by relationships

Millions of links Recently added

(Encarta) encyclopedia knowledge

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Is_amouthLocn_of

MindNet -- “Going to the birds”MindNet -- “Going to the birds”

face

peck limbgoose

creaturemake

Is_a

Typ_obj sound

Typ_subj

preen

Is_a

Part feather

Not_is_a plant

Is_agaggle Is_a

Is_a

PartPart_of

catch

Typ_subj_ofTyp_obj

claw

wing

Is_a

turtle

beak

Is_a

Is_a

strike

Means

hawk

Typ_subj

opening

Is_a

chatter

Means

Typ_subjTyp_obj

Is_a

Is_a

clean

smooth

billIs_a

duck

Is_a

Typ_0bj_of keep

animal

quack

Is_a

CausePurpose

bird

meat

egg

poultry

Is_a

supplyPurpose Typ_obj

Quesp

hen

chicken

Is_a

Is_a

leg

arm

Is_a

Is_a

Is_a

Typ_subj_of

fly

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Changing balance between Changing balance between user & software systemsuser & software systems

Yesterday:– Applications were single programs running in

isolation– Users used to (more or less) understand systems

that they used Today:

– Componentized applications operate in concert – Sophisticated users understand only small

percentage of systems they use

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Tomorrow’s Systems and Tomorrow’s Systems and ApplicationsApplications Users will not be able to predict

– where computations will be performed, – when they will be performed or – by what software components

Gap between system capabilities and user understanding will grow to the point that the only way user will be able to use system is through assisting agents

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Examples of user agents & Examples of user agents & implicit actionsimplicit actions Lumiere (Office 97)

– Monitoring user and program events to provide user help and assistance

Implicit queries– Inferring information needs from browsing

Lookout/SpamKiller– Monitoring mail activity to auto-categorize it

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User ModelingUser Modeling Models of a user’s informational goals

– User’s query (when available…)– User’s background– Acute and long-term search activity– Acute actions with objects and documents– Program data structures

Explicit and implicit information access and display

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Outline (ambitious!)Outline (ambitious!) Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see &

hear? The architecture revolution:

processing moves to transducers

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Kilo

Mega

Giga

Tera

Peta

Exa

Zetta

Yotta

A novel A letter

Library of Library of Congress Congress (text)(text)

All Disks

All Tapes

A Movie

LoC (image)

All Photos

LoC (sound + cinima)

All Information!

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Alan Newell’s & Michael Lesk’s Alan Newell’s & Michael Lesk’s PointsPoints

www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.htmlwww.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html Soon everything can be recorded and kept

Most data will never be seen by humans

Precious Resource: Human attention Auto-SummarizationAuto-Search

will be a key enabling technology.

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Outline (ambitious!)Outline (ambitious!) Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see &

hear? The architecture revolution:

processing moves to transducers

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Put Everything Put Everything in Future (Disk) Controllersin Future (Disk) Controllers(it’s not “if”, it’s “when?”)(it’s not “if”, it’s “when?”)

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements::

Dave PattersonDave Patterson explained this to me a year ago explained this to me a year ago

Kim KeetonKim Keeton

Erik RiedelErik Riedel

Catharine Van IngenCatharine Van Ingen

Helped me sharpen these arguments

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Remember Your RootsRemember Your Roots

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Technology Drivers: DisksTechnology Drivers: Disks Disks on track 100x in 10 years

2 TB 3.5” drive Shrink to 1” is 200GB Disk replaces tape?

Disk is super computer!

Kilo

Mega

Giga

Tera

Peta

Exa

Zetta

Yotta

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Data GravityData Gravity Processing Moves to TransducersProcessing Moves to Transducers

Move Processing to data sources Move to where the power (and sheet metal) is Processor in

– Modem– Display– Microphones (speech recognition)

& cameras (vision)– Storage: Data storage and analysis

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It’s Already True of PrintersIt’s Already True of PrintersPeripheral = CyberBrickPeripheral = CyberBrick You buy a printer You get a

– several network interfaces– A Postscript engine

cpu, memory, software, a spooler (soon)

– and… a print engine.

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Basic Argument for x-DisksBasic Argument for x-Disks Future disk controller is a super-computer.

– 1 bips processor– 128 MB dram– 100 GB disk plus one arm

Connects to SAN via high-level protocols– RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,…. – Commands are RPCs– Management, security,….– Services file/web/db/… requests– Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev

environment Apps in disk saves data movement

– need programming environment in controller

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The Slippery SlopeThe Slippery Slope

If you add function to server Then you

add more function to server Function gravitates to

data.

Nothing = Sector Server

Everything = App Server

Something =

Fixed App Server

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Why Not Everything?Why Not Everything?

AllowAllow Everything on Disk Server Everything on Disk Server(thin client’s)(thin client’s)

Tried and true design– Mainframes, Minis, ...– Web servers,…– Encapsulates data– Minimizes data moves– Scaleable

It is where everyone ends up. All the arguments against are short-term.

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Disk = NodeDisk = Node has magnetic storage (100 GB?) has processor & DRAM has SAN attachment has execution

environment

OS KernelSAN driver Disk driver

File System RPC, ...Services DBMS

Applications

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Technology Drivers:Technology Drivers: System on a ChipSystem on a Chip

Integrate Processing with memory on one chip– chip is 75% memory now– 1MB cache >> 1960 supercomputers– 256 Mb memory chip is 32 MB!– IRAM, CRAM, PIM,… projects abound

Integrate Networking with processing on one chip– system bus is a kind of network– ATM, FiberChannel, Ethernet,.. Logic on chip.– Direct IO (no intermediate bus)

Functionally specialized cards shrink to a chip.

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Technology Drivers: What if Technology Drivers: What if Networking Was as Cheap As Disk IO?Networking Was as Cheap As Disk IO? TCP/IP

– Unix/NT 100% cpu @ 40MBps

Disk– Unix/NT

8% cpu @ 40MBps

Why the Difference?Host Bus Adapter does

SCSI packetizing, checksum,…flow controlDMA

Host doesTCP/IP packetizing, checksum,…flow controlsmall buffers

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Technology Drivers: Technology Drivers: The Promise of SAN/VIAThe Promise of SAN/VIA:10x in 2 years:10x in 2 years http://www.ViArch.org/http://www.ViArch.org/

Today: – wires are 10 MBps (100 Mbps Ethernet)

– ~20 MBps tcp/ip saturates 2 cpus– round-trip latency is ~300 us

In the lab– Wires are 10x faster Myrinet, Gbps Ethernet,

ServerNet,…

– Fast user-level communication tcp/ip ~ 100 MBps 10% of each processor round-trip latency is 15 us

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Gbps Ethernet: 110 MBps

SAN: SAN: Standard InterconnectStandard Interconnect

PCI: 70 MBps

UW Scsi: 40 MBps

FW scsi: 20 MBps

scsi: 5 MBps

LAN faster than memory bus?

1 GBps links in lab.

100$ port cost soon

Port is computer

RIPFDDI

RIPATM

RIPSCI

RIPSCSI

RIPFC

RIP?

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Technology DriversTechnology Drivers

Plug & Play SoftwarePlug & Play Software RPC is standardizing: (DCOM, IIOP, HTTP)

– Gives huge TOOL LEVERAGE– Solves the hard problems for you:

naming, security, directory service, operations,...

Commoditized programming environments – FreeBSD, Linix, Solaris,…+ tools– NetWare + tools– WinCE, WinNT,…+ tools– JavaOS + tools

Apps gravitate to data. General purpose OS on controller runs apps.

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Basic Argument for x-DisksBasic Argument for x-Disks Future disk controller is a super-computer.

– 1 bips processor– 128 MB dram– 100 GB disk plus one arm

Connects to SAN via high-level protocols– RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,…. – Commands are RPCs– management, security,….– Services file/web/db/… requests– Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev

environment Move apps to disk to save data movement

– need programming environment in controller

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SummarySummary Microsoft Research (census) Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence What if you could record everything you see &

hear? The architecture revolution:

processing moves to transducers