1 Strategic Intelligence to UI School of Journalism & Mass Media 582-2006 Public Opinion Research in Idaho: Reasons, Methods, Effects Contact: V. Steffen,

1Strategic Intelligence to UI School of Journalism & Mass Media 582-2006

Public Opinion Research in Idaho: Reasons, Methods, Effects

Contact: V. Steffen, Ph.D., 208.343.0629, [email protected]

Presented by:

Presented to:

Mass Media & Public OpinionSchool of Journalism and Mass Media

2Strategic Intelligence to UI School of Journalism & Mass Media

Strategic Intelligence, Inc.

Incisive, action-oriented research to guide business & policy decisions. “We help organizations figure out who their customers are, what their customers want, and how to communicate with their customers.”

• Main industries: Health care; Education, arts, tourism; Government, High-tech.

• Main services: Public & consumer opinion research & consultation• Led by social scientist-entrepreneurs

– Valerie Steffen, Ph.D. – health care, education, strategic communications specialist; facilitator; former college teacher

– Lou Sternberg, Ph.D. – health insurance, transportation specialist, Internet surveying, statistician; former corporate researcher for Blue Cross of Idaho


Strategic Intelligence, Inc. – Example Projects

• UI: Focus groups to help make its promotional Viewbook competitive• JKAF: Focus groups & phone surveys to help develop and evaluate

communications with parents• Commuteride: Internet & paper-pencil surveys in major companies to

encourage transportation alternatives; assess customer satisfaction• SARMC: Image and attributes research supporting branding campaign• Winter Wildlands Alliance: Economic impact analysis (archival data)• Boise City Arts Commission: Economic & social impact of public arts• IDHW: IDIs & Affiliation Depth Analysis© of Idaho injection drug users about

Hep-C, HIV risk from needle sharing • Century-21: Baseline brand & competitor awareness• Idaho Refugee Resettlement Program: 360° Needs/Assets Evaluation• Humphreys Diabetes: Referral analysis (records mining, consultation)• ACHD opinion surveys (phone) guiding strategic communications; spending


Background, Situation – ACHD & Ustick Road

Idahoans Hate Government – or Maybe Not • Idaho: A patchwork of governmental entities with an overlapping

“crazy quilt” of governmental juridictions, – all providing some service or governance, or both; – many with taxing authority– many with publicly elected officials– Examples affecting Boise include ACHD & Boise City

• Overlaps sometimes create conflicts of values, political agendas, financial incentives, initiatives

• Example: Boise City vs. Ada County Highway District (ACHD): Should ACHD expand a Boise City street even if Boise City Council objects?


Should ACHD expand a Boise City street even if Boise City Council objects?

The street in question: Ustick Road between Cole & Five Mile (ca. 2 miles)


Should ACHD expand a Boise City street even if Boise City Council objects?

The street in question: Ustick Road between Cole & Five Mile (ca. 2 miles)

Affected 2-mile section

of Ustick between

Cole & Five Mile


ACHD says “YES.”

• It’s needed: Without expansion, the daily trip capacity of 18,500 trips will be exceeded in 2009 and those trips will spill to other residential throughways.

• It makes sense: The street is faced with 49% businesses; 27% residential rental properties; 24% single-family dwellings.

• ACHD has statutory responsibility for all public roads and streets in Ada County that are not State or Interstate highways. This includes all city streets.

ACHD Commission President

John Franden

ACHD (Ustick Area)

Commissioner Rebecca Arnold

ACHD Commissioner Dave Bivens


ACHD says “YES.”

• It’s been planned for 30+ years to meet growth patterns.

http://www.achd.ada.id.us/pdf/UstickPresentation.pdf


Boise City says “NO.”

• It will destroy the neighborhood. • It’s expensive $10M-$13.5M• It’s opposed by West Bench and West

Valley Neighborhood Associations – 2 of the 3 affected neighborhood associations.

• It’s not smart growth. If you build it, they will come to drive on it…and then more and more and more will come to drive on it.

• City’s opposition is consistent with broader “smart-growth” agenda and voter mandate, especially among these visible opponents.

City Council Pro Tem

Elaine Clegg

City Council President Maryanne

Jordan

Mayor Dave Bieter


The Parties Were at Logger-Heads

• By 2005, a year after ACHD announced plans to begin construction in 2007, there had been many contentious public meetings, some included shouting, walk-outs, threats to sue.

– ACHD Commission of Officials Elected Countywide– Boise City Council Members– ACHD & Boise City Planning Staff & Engineers– Members of West Bench and West Valley Neighborhood

Associations• Bad press – Idaho Statesman reported & derided the impasse

– Should Ustick be 3 or 5 lanes? Boise and ACHD can't agree. August 4, 2005

– Ustick solution needs cooperation, not quick solution. August 5, 2005

– Our View: ACHD, council shame themselves over Ustick Road. October 8, 2005

http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_action=list&p_theme=gannett&s_site=idahostatesman&p_product=IDSB&p_topdoc=31


ACHD Decides It’s Time for a Scientific Opinion Poll

Action Goal: Learn whether and, if yes, how ACHD should change the planned road expansion.

Study Goal: Learn what the residents in the “Area of Impact” believe about the size and nature of the road-widening project.

Address issues of:– Effect on the community– Rights-of-way impact on existing trees, vegetation– Cost

Make it bullet-proof…

Do vocal West Valley & West

Bench neighborhood

association members really represent the

residents’ views?


A “Bullet-Proof” Opinion Poll

• Strictly defined, representative sample• Fair & accurate with questions & response options that

fully disclose issues & ramifications• Free of response biases of all kinds • NO PUSH-POLLING, e.g.,

– Alleged poll, actually intended to sway, not measure, opinion

“It’s been reported that Boise Council members Clegg and Jordan took bribes from two West Bench

Neighborhood Association members to block Ustick Road expansion, despite overwhelming support for

the road project among area residents. Knowing this, do you support or oppose…”

“Some say Boise Mayor and City Council have vowed to resist updating the business opportunities in

neighborhoods such as Ustick, because of political support from activist neighborhood associations. Do you support such activist governmental intervention

against the general public good?”


Method: Defined Population in the Area of Impact

Adults living within the yellow boundaries below: (ca. 3.5 miles E-to-W; 1-3 miles N-to-S)

Neighborhood of impact is

defined by the light yellow

border.

Actual stretch of

Ustick targeted

for expansion

in dark yellow


Method Challenge 1: Fully Inclusive, Representative Phoning to Such Narrowly Targeted Geography (a)

Inclusive, Representative• Random-digit dialing (RDD) - every land-line phone number in an

exchange has an equal chance of being dialed• Numbers are selected from “Banks”: 100-number series within the last

4 digits e.g., 5100-5199, or 7200-7299, etc.Challenge 1a• Expense: Finest location-to-number mapping: Exchanges correspond

roughly to counties – not city blocks. Result: Many calls few hits high cost.

Solution 1a• List-assisted RDD: Dialing strategy is altered from strictly random to

dial more numbers in specific exchanges and banks that– appear more often in telephone listings, and– contain listed addresses within the targeted geographic area.


Method Challenge 1: Fully Inclusive, Representative Phoning to Such Narrowly Targeted Geography (b)

Challenge 1b• Having enough phone numbers in such a small

geographic area from which to dial. • Usually you need a numbers-to-completes ratio of

10:1 – 20:1, especially when many of the numbers in the area are businesses.

Solution 1b• Be Lucky: Survey a densely populated 7 square

miles • Work the Sample: 6,235 calls to 4,333 separate

phone numbers, to achieve 400 completed surveys.


Method Challenge 1: Fully Inclusive, Representative Phoning to Such Narrowly Targeted Geography (c)

Challenge 1c• Proliferation of cell-as-sole phone• Reduces inclusiveness overall• Biases against young peopleSolution 1c• Weigh & acknowledge magnitude of the threat to

validity


Method Challenge 2: Survey only Respondents Living in the Area of Impact

Challenge 2: Respondents to phone surveys • Do not have access to maps • Often don’t know even major street names in

their area• Have short attention spans • Are often distracted (they’re making dinner,

watching TV, or herding kids, or all three)


Method Solution 2: Survey only Respondents Living in the Area of Impact

Solution 2: Structured, yet flexible, screening procedure (Qs 01-03)

• Screening questions that are repetitive and progressively more precise (Q02-Q03)

• Well trained interviewers, equipped with a map of the area, and permitted to deviate from the script

• Rule to err on the side of inclusion


Method Challenges 3-300: Avoid All Sources of Bias

Challenge 3-300: Consumers of the findings are on opposite sides of the issue

• They will discount findings if a key argument supporting their side is omitted or “misrepresented”

• They will be appeased if they perceive both sides to be accurately represented

Solution: Accuracy, fairness, perspective-taking• Describe the situation fully, accurately from both

perspectives • Describe each side’s negotiating position positively• Choose a viable position between those of the two

sides as a “middle” alternative

Consultant’s Role:

Protect the client with

“devil’s advocacy.”


Method Challenges 301-600: Avoid All Other Sources of Bias

Challenge 301+: Respondents in phone surveys • Don’t know much about the issue• Can’t respond fairly without knowing key information• Can’t, or don’t have the attention span to, understand

complicated explanations over the phone• Are easily influenced by context, including

presentation order (e.g., 1st & last are best remembered; familiarity promotes positive evaluation)


Method Challenges 301-600: Avoid All Other Sources of Bias

SOLUTION 301+: Apply proven cognitive, behavioral, & communication principles to teach concepts & assess opinions

• Plain-language survey construction, e.g., Introductions, explanations

• Name, signal, describe, repeat each of the choice options• Use simplified, “small-chunks” “practice” question(s) (Qs06-07)• Graduate to “larger-chunk” comparison questions (Qs08-09)• Counterbalance presentation order; then record-analyze-adjust• Use highest quality CATI software• Use only terrifically well-trained interviewers who

– Don’t lead, do understand the survey • MONITOR INTERVIEWERS ASSIDUOUSLY

Yes, phone data collection is a little like

making sausage –

messy enough you may not

always want to know how it’s

done. Nonetheless –

you really don’t want your sausage or

your surveys to be GIGO, so

pay attention.


Findings: Conveying the Facts & Interpretation

Method: It’s fair, accurate, scientificFindings• 72% considered themselves part of the “Ustick” community• 86% wanted road improvement.

Recommendations• Could adopt either of

top 2 options• But, Narrow-5-Lane

Option would please the most & disappoint the fewest residents.

12%

26%

73%

87%

-5% 15% 35% 55% 75% 95%

DK/None Others

Wide-5-Lane

Full-3-Lane

Narrow-5-Lane

TOP TWO ChoicesN=400 Respondents


Findings: How They Were Used by ACHD

Presented on October 26, 2005 in a public workshop of ACHD Commission, two Boise City Council members, press, ACHD and City staff, members of the public:“The session was held to answer questions about the project and state the reasons why ACHD has determined that a five-lane road is necessary to meet present and future traffic demand.” (ACHD Web site*)

*http://www.achd.ada.id.us/pdf/UstickPresentation.pdf


Elaine Clegg


Jordan


Findings: How They Were Used by Others

October 26 Discussion was Spirited City Council members and the neighborhood

representative – Questioned the analyses & findings – Questioned the survey quality – Discussed a phased 3-to-5 lane solution– Complained at being “caught off guard”

• One City Council member walked out• Key players committed to pursue, review,

attempt to forge cooperative solution


Elaine Clegg


Jordan


Jordan

ACHD Commission President

John Franden


Longer-term Policy & Political Upshot

• Discussions continued, became increasingly acrimonious



• ACHD pursued its course toward a 5-lane project and is now ready to break ground



• Boise City continued its resistance; changed its own statutes governing city streets and community planning



• ACHD consulted the Attorney General & received a favorable ruling



• Boise City continued to resist• ACHD filed suit and pledged

to not break ground until a final ruling from a Judge Chief Justice

Gerald F. SchroederIdaho Supreme Court


Policy & Political Fallout

• For the Blueprint for Good Growth – land-use, community, and transportation planning agreement, which requires long-term cooperation among all overlapping governmental entities with jurisdiction in the Boise Valley (Ada and Canyon Counties)



• For ACHD– Gain public support for future projects– Fend off calls for changing its status, jurisdiction, funding, or

existence– Win public vote to renew vehicle registration fee, which

sunsets in 2009



• Boise Mayor Bieter– Gain public support for sprawl-limiting decisions and initiatives– Get re-elected– Win public support for tax levies and other agenda items



• Boise City Council Members Jordan, Clegg & Others– Press agenda; win re-election


Elaine Clegg


Jordan


Summary of Research Reasons & Outcomes

Reason: Dissent about ACHD’s road-expansion plans from members of the “area-of-impact” public and from an another governmental agency (Boise City) with overlapping jurisdiction.

Study Goal: Be guided by the higher authority of public opinion. Base decision about the nature of the road expansion on the findings of a scientific study of opinions of “area-of-impact” residents

Study Outcome: • Fortified ACHD’s resolve to forge ahead with a 5-lane

expansion.• Provided an irritant, but not an impediment, to Boise City’s

continued opposition. • Both entities will have to abide by the ruling of the ultimate,

higher authority – the court.


The Whole Point

Public opinion research affects public policy by helping policy makers understand

• What the public wants, and why• Which groups support versus oppose specific issues• How to communicate with the public, especially when

– they act contrary to prevailing public opinion– they want to persuade the public to accept an

unpopular view


Related ACHD Research

Capital Budget Spending Priorities• ACHD GOAL: Use public opinion about how ACHD should

apportion ACHD’s capital budget to: Road construction vs. Resurfacing vs. Bike ways vs. Community Improvements to resolve the relentless disagreement between two commissioners (in East vs. West of County) with polar opposite and unbending agendas for spending on road construction v. bike ways and neighborhood projects.

• Findings: Current formula is about what the public wants, with a little more for community projects and a little less for road construction.


Related ACHD Research

Public opinion about renewal of ACHD vehicle registration fee, which sunsets in 2009

• ACHD GOAL: Learn nature and causes of public opinion about the upcoming vote to renew ACHD’s portion of vehicle registration fees (VRFs) so ACHD can plan (in case of likely defeat) and can deliver public explanations that will promote support for the VRF renewal.

• Findings: TBD


For More Information Contact V. Steffen, Ph.D., 208.343.0629

3956 E. Aspen HillBoise ID 83706

[email protected]

Public Opinion Research in Idaho: Reasons, Methods, Effects

Documents

1 Strategic Intelligence to UI School of Journalism & Mass Media 582-2006 Public Opinion Research in Idaho: Reasons, Methods, Effects Contact: V. Steffen,