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SOME SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF MONGOLIA AND RELATED ISSUES

BY

RAMNATH TAKIAR Professor, Ph.D. Programme

Institute of Finance and EconomicsUlaanbaatar, Mongolia

6th May 2014

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Table 1: Population of Mongolia - Census 2010

Variable Numbers % of Total Population

Total Population 2,754,685 100.0

Males 1,364,120* 49.5

Females 1,390,565* 50.5

Living abroad 107,410 3.9

Foreigners 16,428 0.6

*Estimated

Sex ratio ( Males per 100 females) 98.1

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1969 1979 1989 2000 20100

1

2

3

1.20

1.60

2.042.37

2.75

Fig. 1: Population Growth in Mongolia by Census years - (1969 - 2010)

Census Year

Popu

latio

n in

mill

ion

133171

198

100

230

4

1969 1979 1989 2000 20100.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2.76 2.912.51

1.37 1.50

Fig. 2: Annual Growth Rate ( % ) of Population in Mongolia (1969-2010)

Cesnus Year

Annu

al G

row

th

Rate

(%)

5

Census 2000 Census 20100.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

43.4

32.1

56.6

67.9

Fig. 3: Rural-Urban Population Change - Mongolia – (2000-2010 )

Rural

Urban

% o

f Tot

al P

opul

ation

1029* 1344.5* 849.4* 1798.1** in '000

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Table 2: Population change in Ulaanbaatar in relation to other urban areas - Mongolia – (2000-2010)

Area

Census year (Population’000)

Change % Change

Annual Growth Rate (%)2000 2010

Ulaanbaatar 760.1 1154.3 394.2 51.9 4.2

Other urban 584.4 643.8 59.4 10.2 1.0

Total urban 1344.5 1798.1 453.6 33.7 2.9

Source: Implication of Demographic trends ….. Policy in Mongolia – UNFPA report

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Table 3: Comparison of Population density (per sq km) between Ulaanbaatar and rest of Mongolia - 2010

Area Population Area(Sq. Km)

Density per Sq. Km

Ulaanbaatar 1,154,290 4,705 245.3

Mongolia excl UB 1,600,395 1,559,411 1.0

Mongolia 2,754,685 1,564,116 1.8

Density: Orkhon(108.9); Darkhan-Uul (27.8): others are below 3

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Table 4: Comparison of Population Density of selected cities in India and in selected countries with Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia

City/Urban area Country Population (‘000)

Area (Sq. Km)

Density per sq. km

Mumbai India 14,350 484 29,650

Kolkota India 12,700 531 23,900

Chennai India 5,950 414 14,350

Delhi India 14,300 1295 11,050

Bangalore India 5,400 534 10,100

Karachi Pakistan 9,800 518 18,900

Beijing China 8,614 748 11,500

Singapore Singapore 4,000 479 8,350

St. Petersberg Russia 5,300 622 8,550

Ulaanbaatar Mongolia 1,154 4700 246Source: Citymayor Statistics -2007

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Table 5: Selected indicators of age and dependency ratio - Mongolia – (2000-2010)

Indicator 2000 2010 Absolute Change

0-14 35.8% 27.3% - 8.515-64 60.8% 69.0% 8.265+ 3.4% 3.7% 0.3Sex ratio 98.5 98.1 - 0.4Median age 21.6 25.9 4.3Child dependency ratio 58.9 39.6 19.3

Elderly dependency ratio 5.7 5.4 - 0.3

Total dependency ratio 64.6 45.0 - 19.6

Children - Below 14 years ; Elderly - Above 65 years; * Ratio of elderly to Children

Source: UNFPA report - 2011

Table 6: Population numbers according to Economically active, employed and attending any Educational Institutions –

Mongolia – (2000-2010)

Population 2000 2010

No. % No. %

Population 2,373,500 100 2,647,545 100

Economically active 944,803 61.9 1,075,780 56.4

Unemployed* 164,392 17.5 169,116 15.3

Attending Educational Institutions

171,003 29.5 300,494 36.2

Employed as % of total 779,151 32.8 911,664 34.4

* From economically active : Source: UNFPA report-2011

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Male Female Male FemaleUrban Rural

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

11.8

3.2

24.0

13.513.1

4.8

19.3

7.8

Fig. 4: Labour force participation (%) by elderly (above 65 years) by residence

20002010

Source: UNFPA report-2011

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Table 7: Percentage Change in Older age group participation in labour activities over two Census

Type SexCensus Year

% Change over 20002000 2010

UrbanMale 11.8 13.1 111.0

Female 3.2 4.8 150.0

Rural Male 24.0 19.3 80.4

Female 13.5 7.8 57.8

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Table 8: Ten years age group distribution and M/F ratio - Mongolia - Census 2010

Age group (years) Males (M) Females (F) M/F ratio

0-9 255,253 246,745 103.4

10-19 249,277 242,574 102.8

20-29 270,500 266,763 101.4

30-39 211,651 210,969 100.3

40-49 164,857 171,349 96.2

50-59 90,902 102,126 89.0

60-69 39,156 48,057 81.5

70-79 20,224 27,468 73.6

80+ 5,084 10,357 49.1

Total 1,306,904 1,326,408 98.5

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Table 9: Comparison of Adult (15-60 years) death rates by sex in selected countries – 2012

Country M F (M/F)*100

Pakistan 190 157 121

China 106 79 134

India 242 160 151

Singapore 68 42 162

Japan 82 43 191

Mongolia 314 150 209

Kazakhstan 324 147 220

Source: WHO: http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.11 retrieved on 30-04-2014

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Table 10: Trend in Mortality* by Sex - Mongolia - (2000 - 2010)

Variable Male % Change Female % Change (M/F)*100

2000 329.2 100.0 207.3 100.0 1.59

2005 331.4 100.7 174.3 84.1 1.90

2010 313.2 95.1 150.3 72.5 2.08

* - Per 1000 person

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Table 11: Crude Rate and Age Adjusted Rate of Leading sites of Cancer - Mongolia (2003-07)

Variable Liver cancer (C22) Stomach cancer (C16)Male Female Male Female

Percentage ( % ) of total deaths 44.3 42.3 17.5 13.5

Rank of site (Mongolia) 1 1 2 2

Rank of site (World)* 1 1 2 2

Crude Rate per 100,000 60.08 41.31 26.53 13.36Crude Mortality Rate

per 100,000 56.82 39.56 22.66 12.6

Age Adjusted Rate (AAR) per 100,000 99.13 62.99 42.14 19.05

Age Adjusted Mortality Rate per 100,000 94.96 60.72 37.52 18.63

Source: Sandagdorj, Sanjaajamts, Tudev etal. (2010): Cancer incidence and mortality in Mongolia - National Registry Data; Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. Vol. 11(6);1509-14; *http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/mongolia-Liver-cancer

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Source: Ted Alcorn (2011): Mongolia's struggle with liver cancer, The Lancet, Vol. 377(9772), 1139-40

Fig. 5: Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) deaths by Leading countries in the World

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Table 12: Alcohol consumption, Alcohol dependency and Expenditure on Alcohol in Mongolia

Variable* Male (N = 5121)

Female (N = 5005) Total

Alcohol consumption (g/day) 29.7 10.0 22.0

Alcohol dependency (%) 22 5 13.6

Mean expenditure (Tugrik) on alcohol during the Last month

18223 11482 15762

Mean expenditure on Alcohol in US$ per month 15.02 9.47 13.00

*Non-response rate was varying for each variable.

Source: Epidemiological Study on prevalence of Alcohol Consumption, Alcohol Drinking Patterns and Alcohol Related Harms in Mongolia by Min. Health, WHO, Centre of Mental Health and Narcology, 2006

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Table 13: Type of Beverage and availability of Pure alcohol

Type of Beverage Standard quantity

% Concentration

of Pure Alcohol (g)

Net availability in

grams (g)

Vodaka (Glass, Cup) 50 ml 40 20 g

Milk vodka (Glass or Cup) 100 ml 15 15 g

Wine (Glass) 100 ml 12.5 12.5 g

Beer (Glass, Can, Bottle) 330 ml 5 16.5 g

Fermented Horse milk (Bowl) 500 ml 5 25 g

Source: Epidemiological Study on prevalence of Alcohol Consumption, Alcohol Drinking Patterns and Alcohol Related Harms in Mongolia by Min. Health, WHO, Centre of Mental Health and Narcology, 2006

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Table 14: GDP Per Capita, PPP of selected leading countries from 2000-2010 and their ranks

Country Rank * 2000 2012 % Rise

United States 1 36467 51749 142

China 2 2375 9083 382

Japan 3 25931 35618 137

Germany 4 25787 42700 166

France 5 25198 36785 146

India 10 1554 3870 249

Mongolia 129 1977 5374 272

Source: World Bank (data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?page1=)

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Table 15: Trend in GDP Per Capita PPP (Current Int. $) by Selected Countries (2000-2012)

Year Kiribate Solomon Yamen Rep Mongolia Angola Armenia

2000 2080 1996 1909 1977 2160 20432001 2105 1829 1970 2063 2229 23022002 2111 1758 2020 2173 2489 26572003 2200 1861 2079 2347 2580 31022004 2291 1955 2160 2638 2837 35322005 2320 2075 2293 2885 3342 41662006 2247 2233 2376 3187 4020 48802007 2441 2479 2459 3557 4891 57232008 2519 2650 2536 3893 5489 62632009 2484 2580 2592 3816 5481 54362010 2463 2733 2759 4047 5554 56312011 2541 2972 2460 4776 5701 60102012 2618 3076 2448 5374 6006 6544

Source: World Bank

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

2000

4000

6000

8000

2618

3076

2448

5374

6006

6544

Fig. 6: Trends in GDP Per Capita PPP (Current Int. $) by Selected Countries

Kiribate

Solomon

Yamen Rep

Mongolia

Angola

Armenia

Year

GD

P Cu

rren

t Int

. $

Source: World Bank

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Table 16: Percentage share of GDP by sector (1970-2010)

Year Agriculture Industry Service

1970 33.1 26.3 40.6

1980 17.4 33.3 49.3

1990 15.2 40.6 44.2

2000 29.1 21.9 49.0

2005 15.6 34.4 50.0

2010 14.3 36.2 49.5

Source: UNFPA report

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Table 17: Human Development Index (HDI) and Indicators (1990-2011)

Year Life expectancy

Mean years of schooling

Per capita Gross

National Income

Human Develop-

ment Index

1990 60.5 7.6 1953 0.540

1995 30.5 7.7 1835 0.519

2000 63.0 8.1 1997 0.555

2005 66.0 8.2 2550 0.611

2010 68.2 8.3 3136 0.647

Source: UNFPA report

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Table 18: Households (‘000) by type of dwellings in 2000 and 2010

Type of dwelling

2000 2010% Growth over 2000No. % No. %

Total 541.1 100 713.7 100 31.9 Flat 119 22 152.3 21.3 28.0 Houses with

all utilities - - 3.8 0.5 -

Ger 275.6 50.9 322.8 45.2 17.1 Houses without utilities 133.9 24.7 209.9 29.4 56.8

Houses not complying to standards

3.4 0.6 8.1 1.1 138.2

Other 9.2 1.7 16.8 2.4 82.6 Source: UNFPA report

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Table 19: Households by non-monetary indicators by Region - Mongolia - 2010

Indicators West High land Central East Ulaanbaat

arIndoor sanitation 3.8 8.6 19.8 13.7 36.9

Water pipe 5.2 9.0 30.2 30.8 59.1Access to Electricity 96.3 95.1 96.7 94.8 99.0

Proper Heating 6.8 10.3 23.2 17.2 43.2

Wasting disposal 64.0 66.8 76.0 71.5 96.6Complete Infrastructure 4.2 8.6 20.8 15.2 39.2

Clean fuel cooking 7.2 11.4 29.3 21.2 53.1

Mobile phone 84.6 88.3 95.6 89.7 99.0

Internet 20.3 26.3 38.6 27.5 72.0

Total score 292.4 324.4 430.2 381.6 598.1

Source: Millennium Development goals and Poverty Map - 2011

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Table 20: Number of Livestock, export of Meat and Raw Cashmere in Mongolia

Variable 2000 2005 2009

Number of Live stock ('000) 30,228 30,398 41,995

% of livestock consumed for meat * 25 20 19

Number of Goats ('000) 10,270 13,267 19,465Goats (%) in total livestock 34.0 43.6 46.4

Export meat (tons)@ 15000 12000 16050

Raw Cashmere (tons) 3,300 3,760 6,700Total Exports of Cashmere** (US $ in '000)

- 83,790 180,719

*Estimated. **Includes Scoured cashmere, Dehaired Cashmere and Finished product ; @ -Major export markets includes Russia, Japan, Korea and China; Source: Current Economic Situation of Mongolia ;

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Table 21: Tourist arrivals to Mongolia

Variable 2000 2005 2010

Visitors 158,205 344,635 557,414

% Change over 2000 100 218 352

Tourist 137,374 338,725 456,303

% Change over 2000 100 247 332

Tour Operators- 600; Hotels - 320; Tourist camp - 200; Guides -182.Income: 210 million US $; Contribute to 10% of GDPSource: Current Economic Situation of Mongolia

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Table 22: School Attendance by different Age groups - Mongolia - Census 2010

Age group ( years) Males Females Total

6 - 9 97.0 97.6 97.3

10 - 14 96.0 97.7 96.8

15 - 19 75.3 83.6 79.3

20 - 29 14.3 17.3 15.8Source: Millennium Development goals and Poverty Map - 2011

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Table 23: Poverty Head count, Poverty Gap and Poverty severity by Regions - Census 2010

Region Poverty Head count Poverty Gap Poverty

Severity

Ulaanbaatar 23.4 6.7 2.8

East 34.0 10.1 4.3

Central 26.3 7.8 3.3

Highland 38.5 10.9 4.4

West 30.2 7.9 3.0Source: Millennium Development goals and Poverty Map - 2011

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SUMMARY OF THE OBSERVATIONS:

1. Fall in population growth rate (1.5% per annum) was observed in Census 2010 as compared to that seen in the Census of 1989. Consequently, the child population (0-14 years) has decreased to 27.3% as against 35.8% seen in previous census.

2. Urban population has registered an increase from 56.6% in Census 2000 to 67.9% in Census 2010. Correspondingly, a fall in the percentage of rural population from 43.4% to 32.1% was observed.

3. A phenomenal decadal rise of 51.9% was seen in Ulaanbaatar as compared to 10.2% in other urban areas of the country.

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8. A relatively high mortality among males compared to females aged above 40 years was noted. The data collected from various parts of the world do suggest a higher mortality among males as compared to females but not so high as seen in Mongolia. A systematic study is needed to find out the exact causes of deaths among adults so that appropriate policies could be made to prevent such a higher mortality among males.

9. In Mongolia, the incidence and mortality of the Liver cancer was observed to be the highest in the world followed by the incidence and mortality of the stomach cancer.

10. Alcohol consumption is considered as one of the major risk factor for occurrence of Liver cancer.

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11. The mean consumption of pure alcohol was observed to be around 30 g among males and about 10 g among females.

12. The alcohol dependency was about 22% among males and 5% among females.

13. School attendance among youth (20-30 years) is around 15% only. Need to improve.

14. The contribution of agriculture sector to total GDP has decreased substantially from 29.1% in 2000 to 14.3% in 2010.

15. Life expectancy and per capita Gross Income has increased so also the Human Development Index. A welcome change.

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16. Goats formed the major percentage of Livestock (46%) and export of meat was around 16000 tons.

17. Cashmere export has fetched 180 million US $ to the country.

18. The percentage of tourist to Mongolia has increased (332%) during the last decade. Tourism needs further promotion to increase the national income.

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References:

1. Citymayor statistics (2007): City Mayors: Largest cities in the world by population density Retrieved

from http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/largest-cities-density-125.html

2. Coulombo H, Altankhuyag G (2012): Millennium Development Goals and Poverty Map – National Statistical Office of Mongolia and UNDP, Mongolia.

3. Finpro (2012) – Current Economic Situation of Mongolia Retrieved from http://www.slideshare.net/FinproRy/brief-information-about-mongolia

4. Mongolia – Wikipedia: Retrieved from en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolia on 30th March 2014.

5. Ochirsukh Ya (2011): Mongolia 2010 Population Census: Main Findings- Retrieved from http://www.slideshare.net/Ochiro/mongolia-2010-population-census-main-findings

6. UNFPA Report: Implications of Demographic Trends for Socio-economic Development and Public Policy in Mongolia.

7. WHO (2011): Adult mortality Data by country (1990-2011) http://www.who.int/gho/mortality_burden_disease/mortality_adult/en/

8. Wikipedia (2014): List of Countries by Past and Future GDP (nominal)

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Thank you

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Per capita value in US $ for the selected development indicators - (2001-2012)

Year Industry Agriculture Construction Export Import2001 103.5 120.4 11.6 263.7 343.22002 112.9 108.2 15.8 290.2 387.82003 138.4 119.1 24.6 338.2 438.92004 202.7 159.8 23.5 485.1 562.92005 297.9 197.8 26.7 587.1 635.52006 487.4 235.4 28.7 793 713.52007 580.8 300.7 35 972.9 950.92008 619.2 410.4 39.8 1153.8 14352009 493.0 306.4 22.4 862.3 986.72010 726.3 326.6 29.1 1250.4 1425.42011 931.3 391.6 49.7 1983.1 2762.42012 989.1 544.4 59.6 1870.8 2823.2

Source: GDP of Mongolia - 1970-2012; Ivan Khushnir's Research Centre

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Relative change in numbers taking 2001 year as base as 100 for selected development indicators - (2001-2012)

Year Industry Agriculture Construction Export Import2001 100 100 100 100 1002002 109 90 136 110 1132003 134 99 212 128 1282004 196 133 203 184 1642005 288 164 230 223 1852006 471 196 247 301 2082007 561 250 302 369 2772008 598 341 343 438 4182009 476 254 193 327 2882010 702 271 251 474 4152011 900 325 428 752 8052012 956 452 514 709 823

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Relative change in numbers taking 2001 year as base as 100 for selected development indicators - (2001-2012)

Industry

Agriculture

Construction

Export

Import

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In its 2010 Human Development Report, the UNDP began using a new method of calculating the HDI. The following three indices are used:

1. Life Expectancy Index (LEI) = (LE – 20)/82.3-20

2. Education Index (EI) = (MYSI - EYSI )0.5/.0.951

2.1 Mean Years of Schooling Index (MYSI) = MYS/13.2

2.2 Expected Years of Schooling Index (EYSI) = EYS/20.6

]3. Income Index (II) = [ ln(GNIpc) – ln (100)]/ [ln(107,721) – ln (100)]

Finally, the HDI is the geometric mean of the previous three normalized indices:

HDI = (LEI*EI.II)1/3

LE: Life expectancy at birth

MYS: Mean years of schooling (Years that a 25-year-old person or older has spent in schools)

EYS: Expected years of schooling (Years that a 5-year-old child will spend with his education in his whole life)

GNIpc: Gross national income at purchasing power parity per capita

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Alcohol Consumption (%) by Beverage type and Gender

Beverage type Male Female

Vodka 42 32Fermented Horse Milk 27 34

Beer 21 19Milk Vodka 6 5Wine 2 7Other 2 3Alcohol Dependency* 22 5

*A score of 4 or more on the CIDI, Composite International Diagnostic Interview, instrument

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Table 14: GDP of selected countries from 2000-2015 and their ranks

Country Rank * 2000 2010 % Rise

United States 1 10,289,725 14,958,300 145.4

China 2 1,198,427 5,930,393 494.8

Japan 3 4,731,199 5,495,387 116.2

Germany 4 1,891,934 3,310,600 175.0

France 5 1,330,224 2,569,822 193.2

India 10 474,570 1,710,997 360.5

Mongolia 129 1,137 6,244 549.2Source: IMF estimates -Wikipedia; Based on official exchange rate not on Purchasing power Parity ; Values are in million US $

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WestHighland

Central

East

Mongolia by Regions

Ulaanbaatar

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