1

Science Committee Presentation to NAC Plenary

February 5, 2009

Jack BurnsBrad Jolliff

Mark RobinsonByron Tapley

Michael TurnerCharles Kennel

2

First visible-light snapshot of a planet orbiting another star.

Fomalhaut b orbits the bright southern star Fomalhaut, located 25 light-years away in the constellation Piscis Australis (the Southern Fish).

Hubble Space Telescope Directly Observes Planet Orbiting Fomalhaut

3

The Pulsing Sky

Pulses at1/10th true rate

4

Methane on MarsMethane on MarsStrong Release of Methane on Mars in Northern Summer 2003

Mumma, M.J., et al., Science, Jan. 15, 2009

• Methane varies with location, source strength rivals terrestrial gas seeps.

• Methane and water are sometimes correlated, but not always so.

• Lifetime of methane is <4 yearso Methane lifetime from photochemical

destruction is ~350 yearso Need new model for its destruction,

perhaps oxidants on airborne dust

Is methane produced biologically or geologically?Either way, Mars must be active today!

R1 &R0 methane lines are detected and mixing ratios vary from <3ppbv – 60ppbv

5

True Color Enhanced Color

MESSENGER 2nd Mercury Flyby

6

THEMIS Satellites Discover What Triggers Eruptions of the Northern

LightsWhat causes the shimmering, ethereal Northern Lights to suddenly brighten and dance in a spectacular burst of colorful light and rapid movement? The culprit turns out to be magnetic reconnection, a common process that occurs throughout the universe when stressed magnetic field lines suddenly "snap" to a new shape, like a rubber band that's been stretched too far. Scientists directly observe the beginning of substorms using five THEMIS satellites and a network of 20 ground observatories located throughout Canada and Alaska.

7

NASA-Observed Polar Region Changes

• Reduction in Arctic Sea Ice Extent- Dramatic reduction in 2007 followed by little recovery in 2008 measured by Japanese AMSR-E instrument on board the NASA Aqua Satellite and the US Air Force SSM/I on board the DMSP satellite- Julienne C. Stroeve (Univ. Colorado & NSIDC)

• Reduction in Ice Mass in Greenland- Seasonal changes and overall trend in ice mass associated with winter precipitation and summer melting measured from the US-German GRACE satellite pair. The mass loss corresponds to about 50 mm/century of sea level rise- Scott B. Luthcke (Goddard Space Flight Center)

• Ice Mass Loss in Antarctica- Accelerating ice mass loss data observed in West Antarctica between 1974 and 2007, using LANDSAT, RADARSAT, ERS-1 and -2, and PALSAR data- Eric Rignot (JPL and UC Irvine)

8

Science Committee Agenda Topics

• SMD Overview with Ed Weiler

• Mars Science Laboratory rescheduling impacts and options

• Review of large mission cost growth

• Planning a lessons learned task group on mission cost estimation

• Planetary Protection (joint with Exploration Committee)

• Science Subcommittee reports

• Status of NRC decadal surveys and other studies

• Status of international collaboration in space missions

• Results of Earth and Space mission cost comparison study

9

GLAST

IBEX

OSTM

CINDI

TWINS-B

Chandrayaan

NPP

Aquarius

GOES-P

ST-7

2008 2009 2010

NASA Mission on STS

DoD Mission with Substantial NASA Contribution

International Mission with Substantial NASA Contribution

Joint NASA - International Partner Mission

Reimbursable for NOAA

NASA Science Mission Launches (CY08-CY17)

2011

Juno

MSL

NuSTAR

GRAIL

20132012

LADEE

LDCM

RBSP

SMEX-12

LWS SET-1

Venture 1

GOLD

MAVEN

ILN 1/2

SMAP

GPM Core

Astro-H

As of 1/29/09

For planning purposes only

2014

= Successfully launched to date

* = Early science flight

NASA Mission on US ELV

ICESat-II

JDEM

Venture 2

2015

Mars 2016

ILN 3/4

EX-1

ExoMars

2016

ESMD mission with SMD participation

LRO/LCROSS

OCO

Glory

SDO

WISE

Kepler

SOFIA*

HST SM-4

GOES-O

NOAA-N’

Herschel

Planck

2017

MMS

GPM Const

Discovery-12

SMEX-13

JWST

GOES-R

ESDS-3

Venture 3

Discovery-13

New Frontiers

ExEP-M1

EX-2

GOES-S

Solar Orbiter

10

Mars Science Laboratory has high science value

for Planetary ExplorationMars holds keys to understanding early solar system processes - whether life existed in early habitable zones - planetary climate change in the first billion years - whether life exists in the subsurface today

Critical step toward learning if Mars had an environment capable of supporting microbial life.

Will land in a well chosen site with clear evidence for hydrated minerals and evidence of former interaction with water.

Investigation will result in a better understanding of whether life could have existed on Mars and, if so, where to look for it in the future.

11

Mars Science Laboratory Update

• In December, NASA decided to move the MSL launch from October 2009 to Oct-Dec 2011

– Motivated by schedule pressures in meeting delivery dates for actuators, avionics; assures time for adequate testing

– Avoided substantial new budgetary requirements in FY2009

– Results in additional MSL cost increase of up to $400M

• Budget impacts to be borne primarily by moving funds from future Mars programs

– Reduce funds available to begin Mars 2016 mission; explore a joint mission with ESA

– Reduce technology development funds for a future Mars Sample Return mission

– Other sources within the Planetary Science Division

• The Science Committee, building on the recommendation of its Planetary Science Subcommittee, endorses the continuation of the MSL project and SMD’s plan to fund the cost of completion

– If the cost exceeds the $400M estimated by NASA, NASA should return to the PSS

12

International Lunar Network (ILN)

• Science Definition Team completed study Jan. ‘09

• First new implementation of landed network science desired by science community for Moon and other planetary bodies

• Nine nations engaged in dialog with NASA.

– Four U.S. “anchor nodes”

• Planning use of Stirling power generation capabilities to achieve required mission longevity

• Synthetic resolution tests are needed for ILN scientific objectives to determine optimal network configuration.

• Realistic cost estimate needed for U.S. “anchor node” missions before committing further resources.

13

Planetary Protection

• Joint Science Committee and Exploration Committee session on Planetary Protection

• Planetary protection (for both Earth and other planetary bodies) has been important to NASA since its founding

– International obligations created by 1967 Outer Space Treaty

• NASA has traditionally led the way in development of international standards (set by the Committee on Space Research - COSPAR)

• NASA has a Planetary Protection Officer located in SMD to assure NASA missions comply with planetary protection requirements

• This week’s meeting was the first detailed review of this subject at the level of the NAC Committees; will continue to monitor and bring issues to the NAC as needed

14

Comparison of Earth and Space Mission Costs

• Study conducted in response to a 2007 NAC recommendation

• Database of 30 recently completed missions (with 162 instruments)

• Among the key findings:– Found no correlation between mission cost growth and SMD mission division,

acquisition mode, contractor type, Phase B investment or cost reserve.– Cost shows good correlation to a multi-variate instrument Level-of-Difficulty measure– Earth science missions do not show a systemic difference in cost or cost growth

compared to other SMD missions

Astrophysics

y = 4339.1x4.903

R2 = 0.8497

Earth Science

y = 2573x4.0455

R2 = 0.9431

Heliophysics

y = 615.09x1.565

R2 = 0.6105

Planetary Science

y = 2209.2x4.7679

R2 = 0.7063

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Complexity Index

Ph

ase

BC

D C

ost

(F

Y08

$M)

Earth Science HeliophysicsAstrophysics PlanetaryPower (Astrophysics) Power (Earth Science)Power (Heliophysics) Power (Planetary)

STEREO

SDOL7

MRO

AURA

Terra

Aqua

Cassini

Spitzer

Chandra

MER

15

Astrophysics

y = 4339.1x4.903

R2 = 0.8497

Earth Science

y = 2573x4.0455

R2 = 0.9431

Heliophysics

y = 615.09x1.565

R2 = 0.6105

Planetary Science

y = 2209.2x4.7679

R2 = 0.7063

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Complexity Index

Ph

ase

BC

D C

ost

(F

Y08

$M)

Earth Science HeliophysicsAstrophysics PlanetaryPower (Astrophysics) Power (Earth Science)Power (Heliophysics) Power (Planetary)

STEREO

SDOL7

MRO

AURA

Terra

Aqua

Cassini

Spitzer

Chandra

MER

Phase BCD Cost vs. Mission ComplexityBy SMD Science Area (Division)

16

Earth Science Decadal Survey Implementation

• The NRC’s Earth Science decadal survey was published in January 2007. Since then…

– NPOESS “de-manifested” climate sensors (some of which found other homes)

– Detailed mission concept studies showed some recommended missions will cost substantially more that the NRC estimated

– House and Senate ‘Economic Stimulus’ bills propose additional funds for decadal survey missions

• 2008 NASA Authorization Act requires NASA to provide a report to Congress on plans to implement decadal survey missions by July

– NASA’s plan should incorporate the recent changes listed above

• 2005 NASA Authorization Act requires the NRC to conduct performance assessments on NASA’s implementation of decadal surveys

– Earth science assessment will begin in 2010

17

Progress On 2009 Operations Plan

2009 Work Plan Elements Feb Apr Jul Oct Comments

Lessons Learned on Large Mission Cost Growth

Recommendation in Feb mtg for NASA compilation of lessons learned

Review Balance in SMD Portfolio      

No SC action yet; NRC study on Mission-enabling program elements due in mid-2010

Review plans for use of new ELVs for science missions      

NAC recommendation in Oct. ‘08; NASA has requested a Minotaur IV for launch of LADEE

Requirement & Plans for Space Communications

Joint session with SOC in Oct resulted in request for more info; potential April agenda item

Advise on Portfolio Mgmt for Advanced Technology

No SC action yet.

Work with EC on science enabled by or enabling human exploration      

Joint session in Feb mtg on Planetary Protection

Monitor progress on Earth Science decadal survey implementation

In work by ESS; following NASA’s preparation of an implementation plan due in July

Monitor and advise NASA on NPOESS evolution & long-term data records

In work by ESS; requesting that NASA factor this into decadal survey implementation plan

Monitor Lunar Science Plan development and LEAG/OSEWG Workshop planning

First draft of LEAG Lunar Goals Roadmap expected this Summer; considering workshop in conjunction with NLSI workshop

18

Recommendations

19

Recommendation

• Short title of proposed recommendation: Communicate lessons learned on large mission cost drivers to the Science Committee and to decadal survey committees.

• Short Description of Proposed Recommendation:

– Compile lessons learned on pre-phase B cost estimation for large missions, including influence of interactions among the science community, the NRC, and NASA HQ & Centers. Provide initial product to the Science Committee in its July meeting prior provision to the NRC committees undertaking the new round of decadal surveys in the space sciences.

20

Recommendation

• Short title of proposed recommendation: International collaboration in space and Earth science.

• Short Description of Proposed Recommendation:

– NASA should continue planning the implementation of decadal survey recommendations by considering the plans of other nation’s space agencies. Where strategic interests align, NASA should work with foreign partners to collaborate in program architecture development, including coordinated mission commitments with shared data as well as joint missions.