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Diabetes and Metabolism
Admission and fasting plasma glucose for estimating
risk of death of diabetic and nondiabetic patients
with acute coronary syndrome: nonlinearity of
hazard ratios and time-dependent comparisonBelen Cid-Alvarez,a Francisco Gude, b Carmen Cadarso-Suarez,c Eva Gonzalez-Babarro,a
Maria Xose Rodriguez-Alvarez,c Jose Maria Garcia-Acuna,a and Jose Ramon Gonzalez-Juanatey,a
Santiago de Compostela, Spain
Background In patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS), increased plasma glucose levels are associated withworse outcome. Our aim is to ascertain the values of admission and fasting glucose for prediction of death among patients with
ACS; and to compare their predictive capacities.Methods The relationships of mortality to plasma glucose levels among 811 consecutive patients hospitalized with ACSwere estimated using spline Cox models. Blood samples were obtained upon admission and after overnight fast. The predictivecapacities of fasting and admission glucose were compared using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves.
Results Fasting and admission glucose levels were higher among the 151 patients who died (18.6%) than amongsurvivors (P < .001). Among the 558 patients with no history of diabetes (68.8%) there was a J-shaped dependence of the all- time mortality hazard ratio on fasting glucose that persisted when adjusted for covariates: hazard was lowest at 110 mg/dL(6.1 mmol/L), and significantly greater at levels <90 mg/dL (5.0 mmol/L) or >117 mg/dL (6.5 mmol/L). Likewise among non- diabetic patients, the predictive capacities of admission and fasting glucose were similar for forecast times of up to about1 year, but for later times the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was larger for fasting glucose thanadmission glucose (P < .05). Neither admission nor fasting glucose levels discriminated among diabetic patients in regard torisk of death.
Conclusions Both admission and fasting glucose may be used for triage of nondiabetic ACS patients; fastingglucose may additionally be useful for long-term management, for which the relationship with the all-time mortality hazard
ratio is J-shaped. (Am Heart J 2009;158:989-97.)
Alterations of glucose metabolism are common among
patients admitted to hospital with acute coronary
syndrome (ACS), regardless of whether diabetes mellitus
has been diagnosed previously.1,2 ACS patients may
present with hyperglycemia during the acute period
(admission hyperglycemia) and/or exhibit hyper- or
hypoglycemic fasting plasma glucose levels duringhospitalization. These alterations have variously been
associated with larger inf arct size,3 a greater incidence of
congestive heart failure,4 cardiogenic shock,5,6 and both
short- and long-term mortality.7-11
Admission hyperglycemia, which some studies have
found to be associated with less risk for patients with a
previous history of diabetes than for those without,9,12
has been reported to reflect or be associated with a stress- induced increase in insulin resistance and other stress
responses.13,14 Fasting glucose is more related to the
background metabolic state, depending not only on tissue
insulin sensitivity but also on the state of complex
hormonal and metabolic networks.15
Most previous comparisons of the prognostic values of
admission and fasting glucose have considered death and
survival rates at just one fixed time post-admission or by
the end of follow-up, without attempting to determine
how prognostic value may depend on forecast time.4,10,11
However, taking forecast time dependence into account
might be useful in clinical decision-making: in principle it
From the Departments of a Cardiology and b Clinical Epidemiology, Complejo Hospitalario
Universitario de Santiago, and c Department of Statistics and Operations Research,
University of Santiago, Instituto de Investigacion Sanitaria de Santiago, Santiago de
Compostela, Spain.
Submitted March 4, 2009; accepted October 9, 2009.
Reprintrequests: Belen Cid-Alvarez,Cardiology Department, Hospital Clinico Universitario
de Santiago, Travesia da Choupana, s/n, 15706 Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
E-mail: [email protected]
0002-8703/$ - see front matter
© 2009, Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ahj.2009.10.004
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is possible that while the acute event (admission
hyperglycemia) may strongly predict short-term risk, the
parameter more closely related to background metabo-
lism (fasting glucose) may be a more sensitive predictor of
the maintenance of a high risk level over time.
In the present study we aimed to ascertain andcompare the abilities of admission and fasting glucose
to predict the death of ACS patients, distinguishing
between those with and those without a previous
diagnosis of diabetes mellitus. The nonlinear relationships
between glucose levels and risk of death were modeled
by means of cubic spline Cox analyses, and the predictive
values of admission and fasting glucose were character-
ized for forecast times of up to 4 years by means of time-
dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), a
technique that as far as we know has not previously been
employed in this context.
MethodsPatients
The study group comprised the 811 patients admitted to our
coronary care unit between September 2003 and March 2007
with a tentative diagnosis of ACS that was confirmed in
accordance with the universal definition of myocardial infarc-
tion by the patient's presenting (i) a troponin I level >99th
percentile of our reference population (0.6 ng/mL) in at least 1
of ≥3 blood samples taken during the first 6 hours after
admission, (ii) electrocardiographic (ECG) changes indicative of
new ischemia (new ST-T changes, new left bundle branch block,
or the development of pathological Q waves), and/or iii)
imaging evidence of new loss of viable myocardium or new regional wall motion abnormality.
Glucose measurementsSerum glucose was measured by the glucose oxidase method,
using a Siemens Advia 2400 AutoAnalyzer, in blood samples
taken upon admission and after an overnight fast of >8 hours
within 24 hours of admission. Patients were stratified into tertile
groups defined by fasting plasma glucose.
Ethics All 811 patients agreed to participate in the study, which was
reviewed and approved by the regional ethics committee.
Outcome measures and definitionsPatients were classified as known diabetic patients if they had
been informed of this diagnosis by a physician before admission
or were on oral antihyperglycemic agents, insulin, or diet
therapy. Glycohemoglobin on admission was not used as a
criterion because it is not recommended for the diagnosis of
diabetes by recent guidelines.
The outcome studied was death from any cause before August
2007. Patients were followed up by the study team throughout
their hospital stay. After discharge, vital status information was
acquired by reviewing the Galician Health Registry, by contact-
ing patients or their families individually and, if the patient had
been rehospitalized, by reviewing the hospital records of major
clinical events.
Statistical analysisSingle-variable Cox models were used to evaluate association
in the whole study group between the all-time risk of death (i.e.,the risk of death at any time during the study) and each of the
baseline demographic and clinical variables, including admis-
sion and fasting glucose. For the latter, given the nonlinear
nature of the association, the models were constructed using
natural cubic splines, HR curves and their asy mptotic 95% CIs
being defined relative to minimum risk values16; for the other
variables, linear models were used.17
Multivariable Cox models of all-time risk of death were also
constructed that, together with fasting glucose (which in the
single-variable analyses proved to have greater predictive value
than admission glucose), included variables of known
prognostic value, and variables of unproven prognostic value
that nevertheless emerged as significant predictors of mortality
in 2-covariate analyses with fasting glucose as the other covariate. In view of the results obtained in the two-covariate
analysis with diabetes, independent multivariate Cox models
were constructed for diabetic and nondiabetic patients. In
both cases, the variables included because they proved
significant in the two-covariate analyses were age, heart
failure (Killip class ≥2), and ST-segment elevation myocardial
infarction (STEMI), as well as fasting glucose; in addition, the
inclusion of sex, previous coronary artery disease, hyperten-
sion, creatinine and anemia was forced. In all the analyses
described in this par agraph, splines were employed to model
glucose dependence.18
Taking data censoring into account, the log hazard ratios of
the unadjusted Cox models were used as criterion variables X to
construct time-dependent ROCs19 via the corresponding sensi- tivity and specificity functions: for given time t and criterion
threshold c ,
sensitivity c; tð Þ = P X NcjTVtð Þ;
specificity c; tð Þ = P X VcjTNtð Þ;
where T is survival time. For each time t , the area under the
time-dependent ROC [AUC( t )] was calculated, and 95% CIs for
the AUC( t ) curves and for the difference between the admission
and fasting glucose AUC( t ) curves were constructed using a non-
parametric small-sample bootstrap method in which the
underlying Cox models were recalculated for each resample.
All statistical analyses were carried out in R using the packagessurvival (for fitting parametric Cox models), splines (for fitting
nonparametric Cox models), and survival ROC (for time-
dependent ROC curves). These packages are freely available at
http://cran.r-project.org.
Sources of funding and authorshipThis work was supported by grants from the Carlos III Health
Institute, Spain (redINSCOR [RD06/0003/0016], redIAPP
[RD06/0018/0006]), and the Spanish Ministry of Science and
Technology (MTM2008-01603), Xunta de Galicia (INCITE08P-
XIB208113PR). F Gude was supported by a grant (BAE09/90052)
from the Instituto de Salud Carlos-III (Spanish Ministry of
Science and Technology). The authors are solely responsible for
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the design and conduct of this study, all study analyses, the
drafting and editing of the manuscript, and its final contents.
Results
Baseline and generalThe 811 patients enrolled in the study were aged 67 ±
13 years (mean ± SD), 206 (25%) were women, and 253
(31%) had a history of diabetes. The median duration of
follow-up was 18 months (range, 0-48 months), and 151
patients (18.6%) died. Nonsurvivors were older on
admission than survivors (76 ± 10 vs 65 ± 13 years, P <
.001), and were more likely to have a history of
hypertension ( P = .014), diabetes ( P < .001) and previous
myocardial infarction ( P = .016), but there were no
significant differences between survivors and non-survi-
vors as regards sex, smoking habit or dyslipemia. The
nonsurvivor group had higher incidences of three-vessel
disease and atrial fibrillation, smaller left ventricular ejection fractions, higher serum creatinine levels at
admission, higher Killip classes, and were less likely to
receive coronary angiography and percutaneous inter-
vention ( P < .001 in all cases) ( Table I ).
Table II summarizes the characteristics of the patient
groups defined by fasting glucose tertiles. Among the
three patient groups defined by fasting glucose tertiles
there were significant differences in age ( P < .001),
creatinine on admission ( P = .052), peak troponin in
the first 6 hours ( P < .001), and prevalences of heart
failure, diabetes and 3-vessel disease ( P < .001 in all
three cases) (see Table II ).
Glucose levels, mortality, and diabetesFasting and admission glucose levels were both higher
among non-survivors than survivors: 135 (102-181) versus
114 (99-144) mg/dL for fasting glucose (median [inter-
quartile range]; 7.5 [5.6-10.0] versus 6.3 [5.5-8.0] mmol/
L), 148 (111-217) versus 124 (106-175) mg/dL (8.2 [6.1-
12.0] versus 6.8 [5.8-9.7] mmol/L) for admission glucose.
For fasting glucose, the two-covariate analysis with
diabetes showed a statistically significant diabetes ×
glucose interaction ( P = .02): among non-diabetic
patients, the single-variable analysis showed a clear J-
shaped relationship between fasting glucose and log
hazard ratio, which was least for a fasting glucose level
of 106 mg/dL (5.9 mmol/L) ( Figure 1, A ), whereas
among known diabetic patients no level of fasting
glucose was associated with a significantly higher risk
of death ( Figure 1, B ). For admission glucose, there
was no statistically significant diabetes × glucose
interaction. Nevertheless, whereas nondiabetic patients
with admission glucose levels >150 mg/dL (8.3 mmol/
L) were at significantly higher than minimum risk, which
corresponded to a level of 110 mg/dL (6.1 mmol/L)
( Figure 2, A ), for patients with known diabetes there wasagain no level that was associated with a significantly
higher risk of death ( Figure 2, B ).
Comparison of admission and fasting glucose for predicting short- and long-term mortality
Among patients without known diabetes, the AUC( t )
curves for both admission and fasting glucose showed
sharp initial peaks of around 0.8, as did the curve for
fasting glucose among known diabetic patients. Subse-
quently, the AUC( t ) values for the 2 glucose parameters
were similar among nondiabetic patients for forecast
times up to rather longer than 1 year and, in both cases,
Table I. Baselinecharacteristics of patientsaccording to vital status
Non-survivors Survivors P
No. of subjects (%) 151 (19) 660 (81)
Age (y) 76 ± 10 65 ± 13 <.001Male sex, n (%) 105 (69) 500 (76) .138Hypertension, n (%) 100 (66) 363 (55) .014Known diabetes, n (%) 69 (46) 184 (28) <.001Dyslipaemia, n (%) 77 (51) 325 (49) .916Smoking, n (%) 60 (40) 334 (51) .466Prior CAD, n (%) 60 (40) 176 (27) .003STEMI, n (%) 52 (34) 261 (39) .510Killip class ≥ 2, n (%) 79 (52) 565 (86) <.001LVEF < 50%, n (%) 78 (52) 161 (24) <.001 Atrial fibrillation, n (%) 32 (21) 72 (11) <.001Three-vessel disease, n (%)⁎ 56 (57) 163 (30) <.001 Anemia, n (%) 75 (50) 128 (19) <.001Troponin I, ng/dL 19 (3-45) 10 (2-40) .061Creatinine, mg/dL 1.2 (1.0-1.6) 1.0 (0.8-1.1) <.001 Admission glucose,
mg/dL (mmol/L)
148 (111-217) 124 (106-175) <.001
Fasting glucose,mg/dL (mmol/L)
135 (102-181) 114 (99-144) <.001
CAD , Coronary artery disease. LVEF , left ventricular ejection fraction. Values aremeans ± SDs, or medians with the corresponding interquartile range in parentheses,as appropriate.⁎Coronary angiography results were available for 645 patients.
Table II. Baseline characteristics classified by fasting glucose tertiles
Fasting glucose,mg/dL (mmol/L)
<106(<5.8)
106-135(5.8-7.5)
>135(>7.5) P
Age, y 65 ± 14 68 ± 13 70 ± 11 <.001Male sex, % 76 77 71 .240Hypertension, % 52 58 62 .080Diabetes, % 12 22 60 <.001Dyslipaemia, % 49 44 55 .062Smoking, % 45 42 38 .358Prior CAD, % 32 25 30 .193STEMI, % 29 25 30 .193Killip class ≥ 2, % 15 18 29 <.001 Atrial fibrillation, % 9 16 16 .057 Three-vessel disease, %⁎ 31 27 44 <.001 Anemia, % 25 24 26 .954Troponin I, ng/dL 5 (1-21) 15 (3-53) 17 (4-56) <.001Creatinine, mg/dL 1.09 ± 0.60 1.11 ± 0.57 1.21 ± 0.70 .052
Values are means ± SDs, or medians with the corresponding interquartile range in
parentheses, as appropriate. CAD: coronary artery disease.⁎Coronary angiography results were available for 645 patients.
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tended to fall gradually from nearly 0.7 to around 0.65
( Figure 3, A ); for longer forecast times, however, the AUC
for fasting glucose tended to rise again towards 0.7, whereas the AUC for admission glucose fell <0.6, the
difference being statistically significant ( P < .05) for times
longer than 2.5 years ( Figure 3, C ). Among known
diabetic patients, neither admission glucose nor fasting
glucose afforded, at any time after the first few days, an
ROC with an AUC larger than 0.6 ( Figure 3, B and D ).
Multivariate analysisThe J-shaped relationship between fasting glucose
levels and log hazard ratio among non-diabetic patients
persisted after controlling for confounding factors: least
hazard was associated with fasting glucose levels of
around 110 mg/dL (6.1 mmol/L), and significantly greater
hazard at levels <90 mg/dL (5.0 mmol/L) or >119 mg/dL
(6.6 mmol/L) ( Figure 4 ). The other significant indepen- dent predictors of mortality identified were age, smoking,
STEMI, anemia, and a Killip class ≥2. ( Table III ).
DiscussionThe above results show that in our population neither
admission nor fasting glucose is predictive of all-cause
mortality among ACS patients with known diabetes.
However, among ACS patients without a prior diagnosis
of diabetes unadjusted risk is significantly greater than
minimum for admission glucose levels >150 mg/dL
(8.3 mmol/L); and as fasting glucose deviates in either
Figure 1
Nonparametric estimates of the dependence of all-time risk of death on fasting glucose among ACS patients without ( A ) and with (B) a prior diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (log hazard ratio, with 95% confidence intervals; unadjusted analyses). Ref , reference values. To convert mg/dL of glucose to mmol/L, divide by 18.
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direction from its minimum-risk value (110 mg/dL,
6.1 mmol/L) risk increases significantly even when
other risk factors are taken into account. The predictive
utilities of fasting glucose and admission glucose, asevaluated by the areas under time-dependent ROCs, are
similar for forecast times of up to about 1 year, but fasting
glucose is significantly more valuable for forecast times
longer than about 2.5 years.
Numerous previous studies have investigated the
utility of blood glucose for prognosis among diabetic
and/or nondiabetic patients following acute coronary
events,1,3-15,20,21 and most of those that have included
both patients with and patients without known
diabetes have found, like the present study, that
blood glucose level has greater prognostic value for
the latter.4,9,10,12,15 For example, Aronson et al.
reported that among 462 diabetic and 1101 non-
diabetic patients followed up for a median 24 months,
fasting glucose was only associated with increased risk
of death in the non-diabetic group, in which itsprognostic value was additional to that of the G RACE
risk score and left ventricular ejection fraction.15
Almost all the studies cited above distinguished only
between normal glucose levels and ≥1 levels of hypergly-
cemia. However, Svensson et al11 reported that among
diabetic patients a hypoglycemic lowest inhospital glucose
value was also associated with worse adjusted all-cause 2-
year mortality risk, and Kosiborod et al10 that hypoglyce-
mic mean glucose was likewise associated with increased
inhospital mortality, while Pinto et al. obtained similar
results for admission glucose as regards 30-day mortality.20
The present study found that both hypoglycemic and
Figure 2
Nonparametric estimates of the dependence of all-time risk of death on admission glucose among ACS patients without ( A ) and with (B) a prior diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (log hazard ratio, with 95% confidence bands; unadjusted analyses).
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Figure 3
Forecast time dependence of the AUC for glucose-based prediction of all-cause mortality among ACS patients without ( A ) and with (B) a prior diagnosis of don admission glucose; dotted lines, based on fasting glucose. Panels C (for nondiabetic patients) and D (for diabetic patients) show the difference betweeglucose, with the corresponding 95% confidence bands.
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hyperglycemic values of fasting glucose were predictive of
all-time mortality among non-diabetic patients, and neither
among diabetic patients.
Whether hypo- and hyperglycemia are mediators or
merely markers of adverse outcomes remains unclear.
That hypoglycemia may precipitate or increase myocar-
dial ischemia in diabetic patients is suggested by the
results of two small studies: in one, ischemia-related ECG
changes were associated with insulin-induced hypogly-
cemia in the presence of coronary disease,22 and in the
other hypoglycemia detected by continuous glucose
monitoring correlated with the presence of angina and
ischemia-related changes in ambulatory ECG records.23
These possible effects of hypoglycemia may be due to its
being associated with raised catecholamine levels and
decreased serum potassium,22 both of which are
associated with adverse cardiac outcome in ACS
patients.24 In non-diabetic patients, hypoglycemia may
be just a marker of the severity of background disease
such as abnormal liver function, congestive heart failure,
shock, occult malignancies, renal failure, or other clinical
conditions that adversely influence outcomes.25 Howev-
er, as Table III shows, in this study hypoglycemic fasting
glucose levels continued to indicate significantly greater
risk than the reference level after adjustment for potential
confounding factors.Elevated glucose levels during ACS may reflect high
levels of catecholamines, cortisol, and other factors that
are associated with the severity of ischemic dis-
ease.14,26,27 Elevated glucose has also been associated
with higher free fatty acid levels,28 reduced insulin
sensitivity, and impaired myocardial glucose use resulting
in increased ox ygen consumption and potential worsen-
ing of ischemia29—there have been reports of hypergly-
cemia being associated with marked reduction in
coronary flow reserve.30,31
The observed influence of diabetes status on the
relationship between blood glucose and mortality may
Figure 4
Nonparametric estimates of the dependence of all-time risk of death on fasting glucose among ACS patients without a prior diagnosis of diabetesmellitus, after controlling for potential confounding variables (log hazard ratio, with 95% confidence band; adjusted analysis).
Table III. Cox adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause death duringthe 4-year duration of the study among patients with no priordiagnosis of diabetes
HR 95% CI P
Age, y 1.07 1.04-1.10 <.001
Female sex 1.28 0.70-2.36 .420Hypertension 0.90 0.53-1.50 .630Smoking 2.01 1.13-3.57 .018Prior CAD 1.51 0.90-2.53 .112STEMI 2.37 1.42-3.96 <.001Coronary angiography 0.65 0.40-1.06 .087 Killip ≥ 2 2.34 1.42-3.86 <.001Creatinine, mg/dL 1.23 0.82-1.84 .310 Anemia 1.76 1.03-2.53 .037 Fasting glucose, mg/dL (mmol/L) <.001
66 (3.6) 2.61 0.55-12.474 (4.1) 2.87 1.18-6.9890 (5.0) 1.79 1.00-3.20110 (6.1) (reference level) 1.00119 (6.6) 1.11 1.02-1.20
150 (8.3) 2.21 1.49-3.28175 (9.7) 3.52 1.97-6.31200 (11.1) 5.21 2.57-10.5
The final model included all variables listed above, risk from fasting glucose beingmodelled by means of natural splines (see Methods; by way of illustration, results arelisted here for eight fasting glucose values). CAD: coronary artery disease.
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derive from at least two factors. Firstly, a proportion of
hyperglycemic ACS patients with no previous diagnosis
of diabetes—25% to 70% according to some esti-
mates32,33—are in fact diabetic patients; because these
patients usually fail to receive insulin or other treatment
appropriate for diabetic ACS patients upon admission,they may constitute a group with especially high short-
term risk.34 Secondly, a given hyperglycemic blood
glucose level implies a greater surge in blood glucose in
a truly nondiabetic patient than in a diabetic patient,
which suggests a higher degree of stress and hence
greater risk of death.9
Relatively few previous studies have compared the
prognostic utility of admission glucose with that of the
first postadmission fasting glucose measur ement or some
kind of average fasting glucose measure.7,10,21 Most of
those that have, have found that fasting glucose is the
better predictor of inhospital or 30-day mortality, at least
among patients without previously diagnosed diabetes,
and this finding appears to be independent of the therapy
received in hospital.7,10,21 In the present study, the AUC
of fasting glucose among non-diabetic patients tended to
be larger than that of admission glucose during this early
postinfarct period, but the small number of deaths meant
that the difference was not statistically significant. In
terms of AUC, both glucose parameters performed much
better in predicting deaths within the first few days post-
infarct than for any longer forecast time, doubtless due to
the more immediate relationship between acute stress
and risk of death. As noted above, in this study, the
difference between the AUCs of fasting and admissionglucose was statistically significant, in favor of the former,
for forecast times longer than about 2.5 years. Thus,
admission glucose appears to be primarily a marker of
early risk, reflecting, at least in part, differences in stress-
induced insulin resistance, etc., due to differ ences in
infarct size and/or hemodynamic compromise.2,14 The
greater ability of fasting glucose to predict long-term risk
may be due to its being mor e related to the patient's
background metabolic state.15
Study limitations
This study concerned the risk of all-cause mortality conditional on serum glucose levels measured in a sample
taken at admission and a second sample obtained, within
24 hours of the first, after an overnight fast of >8 hours.
We were not in a position to determine how many
patients had persistent hyper- or hypoglycemia during
hospitalization, or whether deaths were the consequence
of ACS. The observational nature of the study also means
that it does not show whether hyper- and/or hypoglyce-
mia were causally linked to adverse outcome, were
simply markers of greater disease severity, or both.
Moreover, it does not allow the possibility of confounding
due to unmeasured factors to be ruled out. However, as
circumstances tending to minimize this possibility we
note that the sample was large (811 patients) and
excluded no ACS patients seen in our centre during the
study period; that data collection was prospective; and
that all the patients in the sample were followed up
successfully. Furthermore, the observed relationshipsbetween fasting glucose and all-time mortality persisted
after extensive adjustment for ACS severity and a number
of comorbidities.
Conclusions Among patients who, at admission for ACS, are not
known to suffer diabetes, admission, and fasting plasma
glucose are both strong predictors of mortality. Likewise,
among nondiabetic patients, the predictive values of
admission and fasting glucose are similar for forecast
times of up to about 1 year, but the betterpredictor of long- term mortality is fasting glucose, for which the relationship
with the log hazard ratio of all-time mortality is J-shaped.
Neither admission nor fasting plasma glucose are useful in
our population for discriminating among known diabetic
patients as regards the risk of death after ACS.
According to our results, fasting glucose concentrations
in nondiabetic patients hospitalized for ACS may serve as
a simple marker to help clinicians stratify risk for optimal
triage and long-term surveillance and management.
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