1 PROGRAMME FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA (PIDA) ITU Regional Development Forum 9-11 May 2012, Kigali, Rwanda Dr Zouli BONKOUNGOU, African Union

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PROGRAMME FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA (PIDA)

ITU Regional Development Forum 9-11 May 2012, Kigali, Rwanda

Dr Zouli BONKOUNGOU, African Union COMMISSION, Addis Ababa

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African DevelopmentBank Group

African Union

NEPAD

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CONTENT

I. WHY PIDA

II. WHAT IS PIDA

III. PIDA STUDY PROGRESS.

IV. PIDA OUTCOMES : ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

V. DIAGNOSIS FOR TELECOM/ICT SECTOR

VI. OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATION/ICT SECTOR

VII. STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK OF TELECOMM/ICT SECTOR

VIII. PRIORITY ACTION PLAN (PAP)

IX. PIDA CHALLENGES

X. CONCLUSION

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I: WHY PIDA?- Merging Continental Initiatives on Infrastructure

Development

Decision to merge all initiatives

Terms of Reference by Sector

(Transport, Energy, ICT & Water)

Lessons learnt from AUC Studies &

NEPAD MLTSF

Joint Working Group

AU Commission, NEPAD Sec., AfDB

Project management

plan

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I: WHY PIDA? Rationale for the merger

Common platform for infrastructure development in Africa

Rationalisation of a plethora of regional/continental initiatives

Harmonise donor intervention Fast tracking Africa development and

integration

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Major Components Supporting Components

II: WHAT IS PIDA?

PIDA is : a program dedicated to facilitating continental integration, socioeconomic development and trade, through

improved regional infrastructure, a Multi sector program with several components

Panel of experts

DatabaseEnergy

Transport

Water

Telecom/ ICT

Sector Studies

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II: WHAT IS PIDA? : Objectives and Outputs

A Strategic Framework for

2040

Implementation strategy & process

Outputs Objectives

Infrastructure Development

Programme (2040)

• Vision on Africa’s infrastructure• Strategic objectives• Sector policies(enabling environment to support infrastructure development)

• Regional and continental physical infrastructure projects

• Priority projects and measures• Phases: Short term (2012-2020), Medium term (2020-2030) and Long term (2030-2040)

• Rolling plan of priority actions• Financing• Monitoring & Evaluation process

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Submission of INCEPTION REPORT5th July 2010

Submission of Methodological Brief15 September 2010

Submission of Phase I Report30 March 2011

Submission of Sector Briefs15 June 2011

Kick-Off Workshop, Addis Ababa

28-30 July 2010

Validation Workshop, Johannesburg

28-30 Sept 2010

Phase I Workshop, Libreville

18-20 April 2010

Review Workshop,Tunis 7 & 8 July 2011

Submission of Phase II reports 15 September 2011

Regional Workshops, Sept-Oct . 2011

Nairobi, Libreville, Abuja, Yamoussoukro, Rabat

Submission of Phase III reports (Final Phase II Sectors reports incorporating Regional Workshops Comments, PIDA Study Synthesis), November 2011

III: PIDA STUDY PROCESS: STUDY STRUCTURE PHASES AND MEETINGS.

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III. PIDA STUDY PROCESS

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IV: PIDA OUTCOMES: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Economic outlook driven by population growth

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PIDA’s macro and sector outlooks to 2040 are grounded on a 6.2% annual overall rate of growth of African GDP.

The main drivers of this growth are: Population: 1,033;1,400;1,770 millions

respectively in 2010, 2025 and 2040; Increasing level of education; Technology absorption

PIDA Economic Outlook- GDP projections to 2040

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From GDP projections 2040 to Sector Forecasts


If the 6.2% average GDP growth is achieved:• Power demand will increase at an average annual growth rate of

nearly 6%. • Transport volumes will increase 6–8 times, with a particularly

strong increase of up to 14 times for some landlocked countries…• Water needs will push some river basins - including the Nile, Niger,

Orange and Volta basins - to the ecological brink.• ICT demand will swell by a factor of 20 before 2020 as Africa catches

up with broadband.

THIS INCREASED DEMAND WILL REQUIRE ADEQUATE REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE THAT PIDA PROPOSES

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In 3 years (2009-2012), a move from a scarce and expensive resource to overflow of bandwidth, Migration from satellite to submarine cables, Availability of much more bandwidth for countries with submarine stations, Price reduction, International bandwidth is sufficient, along African coasts in term of: Quantity, Number of landing stations . L

The worldwide Broad band challenge: high speed broadband Union Europe (27 countries) - « Digital Startegy for Europe 2020"South Korea: National 1Gbps Network for end users in2012Japon : e-Japan Priority Policy"Singapore: New Generation National Broadband NetworkAustralie: National Broadband NetworkNouvelle-Zélande: Initiative ultra High speedCanada : National Broadband policy ; Brésil: Plano Banda Larga NationalArgentine: Argentina Conectada; Nigeria: Vision 20:2020

V: DIAGNOSIS OF TELECOMMUNICATION/ICT SECTOR

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Principal bottleneck identified Impact on terrestrial Infrastructure development and usage

Response

African countries have FO infrastructure but unequally developed and insufficient quantity and quality

High costs for use, insufficient capacity in some cases drives demand for deployment of new competitive or open access infrastructure

Data gathering, identification of needed new infrastructure

Wireless infrastructure is not able to handle broadband without upgrades to fibre for backhaul

Congestion on mobile data networks results in increased demand for pervasive low-cost/open access national fibre backbones to provide backhaul for base stations

Deployment of pervasive open-access or competitive national backbones to service wireless base station needs.

Interconnectivity is unequal with low levels of competition

High prices, poor performance and congestion restricts use of existing domestic networks

Develop/ adopt SMP determinations and interconnection regulations, introduce more competitors, at wholesale and retail levels

International connectivity weakness and monopoly on international gateways in some countries

High prices, poor performance and congestion restricts use of some existing international networks, limits usage, driving demand for regulatory reform

Develop/ adopt SMP determinations, introduce more competitors, at wholesale and international level

No uniform definition of needed regional infrastructures and difficulty to implement on a competitive basis

Lack of low cost means for carrying inter-country traffic within Africa, or for obtaining access to competing submarine cables in nearby countries, a particular problem for land-locked countries.

Develop and adopt regional infrastructure identification and planning guidelines, charter for landlocked countries


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Principal bottleneck identified Impact on terrestrial Infrastructure development and usage

Response

Lack of official data on market development and infrastructure

Inability to make timely plans for infrastructure deployment leading to unexpected capacity constraints

Develop a national data gathering and monitoring process

International bandwidth is available in sufficient quantity on a competitive basis from submarine cables, but accessibility, interconnection and competition are insufficient

Lack of low cost international capacity limits demand for regional and national infrastructure.

Develop/ adopt SMP determinations, introduce more competitors, at wholesale and international level

Obtaining rights of way for laying fibre cable is a long, costly and often difficult process

Cross-border and national backbone deployment is delayed and rights of way costs create additional end-user costs.

Develop land-use planning guidelines and regulations for national and cross-border infrastructure

Implementation of cross-border links are a long and complicated process

Cross-border and national backbone deployment is delayed and permitting costs create additional end-user costs,

Develop land-use planning guidelines and regulations for cross-border infrastructure

Alternative passive infrastructure (transport, energy, pipeline) is not available for ICT usage, especially as a competitor or alternative to existing links, transport and energy sectors

Reduction of availability of potential infrastructure and low deployment of new or alternative links by operators leading to more limited choices and higher costs to end-users

Awareness raising, develop cross-sectoral data gathering, planning and GIS systems for decision-making


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While the overall availability of international and cross-continental capacity via submarine cables is sufficient and encouraging, the national and regional infrastructure is insufficient to take advantage of the submarine capacity,Only about 0.5Tbps (2.7%) of the 18Tbps of submarine capacity is available is currently in use on the continent.

Africa

Morocco

WesternSahara

Algeria

Angola

Benin

Botswana

BurkinaFaso

Burundi

Cameroon

CapeVerde

Central AfricanRepublic

ChadDjibouti

Egypt

EquatorialGuinea

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Gabon

The Gambia

Ghana

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Kenya

Lesotho

Liberia

Libya

Madagascar

Malawi

MaliMauritania

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Niger

Nigeria

Reunion (France)

Rwanda

São Toméand Príncipe

Senegal

Sierra Leone

Somalia

SouthAfrica

Sudan

Swaziland

Tanzania

Togo

Tunisia

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbabwe

DR Congo

Congo

Côted'Ivoire

Digital Divide North-South (End 2010)

312 Gbits87 000 000 inhabitants

208 Gbits> 900 000 000 inhabitants

population International bandwidth

9% 60,00%

populationInternational bandwidth

89% 40,00%

Pida Study ICT Sector juin 2011


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The map below shows the major terrestrial infrastructure in use by African operators (or under construction – i.e. in place by 2012)


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Outlook 2030The figure below illustrates the expected explosion of capacity required to service

Africa’s broadband demand in the coming decade

VI: OUTLOOK FOR TELECOMMUNICATION/ICT SECTOR

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

Bandwidth (Mbps) in 2009 Future International Bandwidth (Mbps)

Gap (Mbps)

Projection of Continental bandwidth( (International) in Mbps

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

COMESA SADC EAC ECOWAS CEEAC UMA LLC IGAD

Projection of international bandwidth per REC (Mbps)

Bandwidth (Mbps) in 2009 Future International Bandwidth (Mbps) Gap (Mbps)

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THE VISION:To enable Africa to build an information society and an integrated digital economy (e-Africa 2025) in which every government, business and citizen has access to reliable and affordable ICT networks by: •Doubling ICT’s contribution to GDP from 5% to 10% by 2025•Satisfying African broadband demand at the least cost, while increasing accessibility and security of access•Promoting intra-African e-commerce•Increasing physical integration at the regional and continental levels.•supporting peace & security.Objectives : •Increase ICT contribution to GDP from 5% to 10 % by 2025, •Satisfied the demand at low cost while ensuring access to all African countries to the e-World ; •Secure connectivity and promote intra-Africa e-commerce, •Increase accessibility for all Africans to local, regional, continental and international content and applications•Contribute to regional and continental physical and economic integration,

VII: STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK OF TELECOMMUNICATION/ICT SECTOR

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Goals to reach the Vision – The Master PlanGuarantee of international access: Each country needs to have fibre access to at least two different submarine cablesGuarantee of secure terrestrial routes: Each country needs to have access to its choice of submarine landing stations by at least two different terrestrial infrastructuresLandlocked Countries charter: Land locked countries need to have guaranteed access to landing submarine landing stations in coastal countries Continental inter-connectivity: Each country shall be interconnected with terrestrial fibre infrastructure to its neighbour based on the most economic criteriaOptimal International bandwidth use: Each country shall have a national IXP to ensure local interconnection between national operators to reduce the level of external interconnectionCompetitive open markets: Each country should have a competitive market in broadband services based on a combination of private and public infrastructure provided on an open access non-discriminatory approachSustainable new infrastructure: all new infrastructure needs to be have sufficient capacity (fibres) to support the medium term vision (more than 10 years)


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Summary of Actions required to meet the goalsShort term responses: 2012-2015 (in parallel):In the short term, there are massive benefits to be gained simply by improving access to what is existing. This requires: 1.Efficient use of existing infrastructure. This will require creating an enabling policy/regulatory environment (especially through price regulation and non-discriminatory access requirements on SMPs) for: •Optimising the use of existing telecommunications fibre (reducing costs and providing access to all operators) and •Ensuring access to alternative infrastructure (transport/energy); 2.Connecting the priority missing links between countries and to submarine landing stations where needed.3.Increasing national demand – opening markets to new access providers, establishing national traffic exchange points (IXPs), lowering ICT taxes and license/spectrum fees, supporting extension of national/international backbones to remote and rural areas (PPP/reverse auction), deploying fibre on alternative infrastructure4.Establishing a more conducive environment for future fibre deployments.


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Summary of Actions required to meet the goalsShort term responses: 2012-2015 (in parallel):5.Deploying domestic satellite infrastructure to improve backbone reliability where there is only one fibre link, for broadcasting, and to fill the gaps in rural broadband coverage, especially in the remote areas where it may be many years before terrestrial infrastructure becomes available. 6.Supporting local and international content hosting and applications development – in particular e-government applicationsMedium term (2015-2020):1.Once the national enabling policy environments and institutional frameworks are in place, support new projects for regional and international fibre along major routes, especially where there is only one link2.Improve availability of electricity for use in ICTs, especially in rural areas3.Improve literacy levels nationally where neededLong term (2020-2030):More national routes and more competition on existing routes, especially from access to ducts of new transborder road and energy projects, locations mainly driven by market demand for capacity and resiliency


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SELECTION OF PROJECTS


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CONTINENTAL STRATEGIC ICT INFRASTRUCTURE THIS MAP SHOWS THE TARGET NETWORK ENSURING ACCESS TO ALL STAKEHOLDERS WITH

QUALITY, SECURITY, AND HIGH LEVEL OF AVAILABILITY BY 2020

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME


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Continental Strategic ICT Infrastructure: Belt Interconnection by 2020



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IXP MAP BY 2020

THE MAP IDENTIFIES EXISTING AND NEEDED IXPS ON THE CONTINENT



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Cpclusion: Enable an information society and integrated digital economy in which all actors have access to reliable and affordable ICT networks


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For all the 4 sector PIDA PAP broken down into 51 projects/programs selected according to agreed criteria

VIII: PRIORITY ACTION PLAN (PAP)

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VIII: PRIORITY ACTION PLAN (PAP)

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PAP Investment Cost: $68 bn - 2012-20

• BY SECTOR

• BY REGION

VIII: PRIORITY ACTION PLAN (PAP): INVESTMENT COST

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PAP Investment ($68 bn)VIII: PRIORITY ACTION PLAN (PAP): INVESTMENT COST

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IX: PIDA CHALLENGES

IAIDA defines responsibilities of Continental, Regional institutions (AUC, NPCA, RECs) and Member States. Builds on principles of subsidiarity.Allows high level advocacy.Provides a mechanism for reviewing performance and rolling over the PAP with access to the highest levels of the AU, RECs and Member States.

Operationalization of Institutional Architecture (IAIDA)for PIDA Implementation

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IAIDA

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Financing will need to come mostly from domestic sources (public & private)

PUBLIC MIX PRIVATEPUBLIC MIX PRIVATE

IX: PIDA CHALLENGES

Country role in PIDA implementation Projects are implemented by countries on whose territory they are located

and by their agencies (public or private) Countries are critical and efficient players Implement “soft” components (harmonisation of continental and regional

policies) Financing project preparation, capital investment, operation and

maintenance

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X: CONCLUSION

Unique example of multi sector and Actors Initiative

PIDA is a continental integrated program for the FOUR sectorsPIDA is based on a large consultative and consensual approach with all stakeholdersPIDA has benefited from the support of the international community PIDA generated a momentum for the resources mobilization

G8-20; TICAD-JAPAN, CHINA-FOCA; EU, BRAZIL ..PIDA is a great opportunity for the international and African private sectors as well as the building of efficient PPP

PIDA ImpactsCompetitiveness would be established in niche markets and in a growing spectrum of mainstream activities, including agriculture and manufacturingRegional trade would be twice today’s share of continental GDPUp to 15 million new jobs would be created.

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Documents

1 PROGRAMME FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA (PIDA) ITU Regional Development Forum 9-11 May 2012, Kigali, Rwanda Dr Zouli BONKOUNGOU, African Union