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1
‘PREACHING AT HARVEST: FOOD,FARMING & FAITH’
THE FARMING YEAR
RCSN & YRSNHOWARD PETCH September 5th 2013
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: BIG PICTURE (1)
“This suggests that the outlook for world food supplies is in fact relatively stable and that supply is keeping up with demand” (Defra Food Chain Analysis Group Dec 2006)
“Food prices are causing misery and strife around the world. Radical solutions are needed……..this is a silent tsunami” (Josette Sheeran UN World Food Programme 2008)
“ The case for urgent action in the global food system is now compelling. We are at a unique moment in history as diverse factors converge to affect the demand, production and distribution of food over” (Professor John Beddington Foresight Report 2011)
“ Sleep Walking into Global Famine” --- The world cannot feed 9.3 billion people (BOOK TITLE: Benny Dembitzer 2012)
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: BIG PICTURE (2)
“The battle to feed all humanity is over. In 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any cash programmes embarked on now” (The Population Bomb Paul Ehrlich 1968)
BUT A Green Revolution----genetics; nitrogen fertilisers; agro-
chemicals; irrigation (Norman Borlaug) but green revolution often came with unsustainable environmental impacts
Yield increases of 2.5-3x: Kept pace with population growth and more
Now 17% more calories per person per day than 30 years ago despite being 70% more people (FAO Data)
In UK would need almost 3 x more land in agriculture if producing at 1945/46 yield levels. In India at 1961 levels an extra 65 million Ha (Size of France)
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: BIG PICTURE (3)
Out of 7billion plus almost 1 billion live on the verge of starvation; at least 5 million die of starvation each year
A further billion live in ‘hidden hunger’ without the benefit of the right food
A further 1 billion are overweight/obese
“In the next few years we shall witness famine on an unprecedented scale across the globe…..The scale of the problem will hit an unprepared world without notice because no one is looking………Those who care about the poorest need to identify clear aims, and target and work for specific changes. On the present showing there will not be sufficient resources to meet the shortfalls in food and water” (Benny Dembitzer 2012)
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: THE BIG CHALLENGES (1)
Population Growth
Climate Change
Land Availability & Use
Dietary Changes & per capita demand
Water Availability & Use
Global Energy Demand
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: THE BIG CHALLENGES (2)
Waste
Protecting Biodiversity
Emerging Technologies
Internationalisation of Trade/Governance :
Exploitation in Food Chain/Speculation
Social Science: Changes in Ethical Stance of Consumers
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: THE BIG IMPLICATIONS
‘Adapting to climate change, lifting 1 billion starving people out of hunger, addressing escalating obesity are just some of the many formidable economic, social and environmental challenges confronting the food system. One thing is clear; if society is going to successfully meet these challenges, something has to change.
Business as usual is not an option’ FOOD ETHICS COUNCIL“BEYOND BUSINESS AS USUAL” REPORT FEBRUARY 2013
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS (Tools of the Trade)
Arable and Livestock Farming
SOIL: Major component in land classification system: Grade 1 (Excellent) Grade 5 (Poor) Grades ½= 21%
GENETICS: Seed/Livestock
NUTRITION: Plant/Animal
HEALTH: Plant/Animal
KNOWLEDGE & SKILL OF FARMER--HUSBANDRY-’CAREFUL MANAGEMENT’-- APPLICATION OF TECHNOLOGY—RANGE--MARKETING
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS (Business & Family Objectives)
Profitability
Family Aspirations & Lifestyle; Succession
Specialist interests and motivators
Sustainability & Environmental Objectives ’Live as if you are going to die tomorrow and farm as if you are going to farm for ever’
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS (External Influences—Little or No control)
Weather—Climate Change; volatility
End Price; Market forces & volatility: Global factors: Commodity speculation
Input costs; especially energy
Power in the food chain
Governance: Land, Agriculture, Environmental & Food Policy; Trade issues
Bureaucracy; Technology restrictions
External payments: Subsidies? Public Good payments
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE---ENTERPRISE ROUTINES/SEASONALITY
A key element of farming life is the regularity and rhythm of the seasons. The nature of seasonality varies with the type of farming
Livestock farming based on the breeding cycle of the animal in tune with the growing patterns/seasons
Dairy Cow gestation—9 months—Produces milk 9/10 months—Dry 2/3 months
Most dairy herds milk cows 24/7/365– 1-3x per day--very demanding
Control over calving patterns—cost of feed/supply Feed on growing grass/forage April-October and
conserved forage September to April
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE-ENTERPRISE ROUTINES/SEASONALITY
Most pig and poultry farms are a continuous cycle of breeding and production
Sow gestation 3months/3 weeks/3 days—Pigs weaned at 3-8 weeks—indoor/outdoor breeding—
Range of rearing systems—pig slaughtered at 90-100Kg at 5-6 months of age
Most sheep flocks are mated in the autumn with lambs born in the spring (breeding cycle influenced by day length)
Lambs born January –April depending on breed/conditions Sold 3-12 months of age
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE-ENTERPRISE ROUTINES/SEASONALITY
Most winter wheat, winter barley & OSR rape are sown in the autumn and harvested July/August
Spring cereals, OSR and all potatoes, sugar beet, peas, beans, are sown in spring and harvested in summer/autumn/winter
Fruit & Vegetables: outdoor; plastic; glasshouse; through the year; contractual obligations
Working in tune with the seasons with an innate sense of timing is the key to good husbandry
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: VARIATION ACCORDING TO FARM TYPE
September-November Harvesting; foraging; ploughing; cultivating; drilling; tupping;
sheep sales; calving/farrowing; housing livestock; livestock sales (stores) plant health care
December-FebruaryWinter care of all livestock; Plant health care; marketing
arable crops, Farm maintenance; spread manure; calving; start lambing
March-MaySowing, planting, spraying, fertilising (top dressing) lambing,
calving; silage making; clean out livestock buildings June-August Sheep shearing; hay making; second cut silage; vining peas;
combining; baling; ploughing
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: KEY FEATURES OF 2012/13 (1)
2012--The second wettest summer on record, flooded fields and ruined crops forcing farmers to bring in their livestock and causing the cost of feed to rise sharply
Winter proved just as difficult with the spread of diseases such as Schmallenberg virus, liver fluke and bovine TB
Arable farmers were unable to plant crops in flooded fields, planted fields suffered slug infestations and continuation of very cold, wet weather into Spring meant this years harvest will suffer.
Some land not cropped
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: KEY FEATURES OF 2012/13 (2)
This last year the weather has affected all types of farming, livestock, upland and arable
Through last winter crop prices soared (wheat futures high of £227/t) and potatoes were selling at over £300/t
However the higher values failed to make up losses in yield and quality whilst substantially increasing feed prices for livestock farmers--‘Up horn, down corn’ (AG Street)
Virtually all inputs have increased in price
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: KEY FEATURES OF 2012/13 (3)
Defra profitability projections for 2012/13 (Compared to previous year)
General Cropping -11% Cereals -11% Dairy*** -42% Mixed -24% Specialist Poultry unchanged Specialist Pigs -50% Grazing Livestock (lowland) -44% Grazing Livestock (Upland) -52%
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: KEY FEATURES OF 2013/14
In March 2013 a farming leader described ‘the summer and winter from hell’ as he tried to assess the state of the industry.
The projections were that the effects of such appalling weather were likely to continue for at least another year and in some respects (damage to land) much longer
However the impact of a good summer has been quite amazing and harvest projections are very encouraging. Grain yields and quality are better than many had expected and a good autumn would help to restore some stability and a measure of sanity!
The issue of TB incorporating the badger cull continues to be an issue of major tension especially in the south west
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: THE RECENT PAST
(1995-2005) Deep agricultural recession including BSE/FMD
Concern re long term viability / loss of self worth
Succession: Future of family farm? Lack of investment
Loss of personnel / skill base / new entrants
Ripple effect through rural economy
2006-2013 The winds of change
Change of culture as the industry re-structures
“The future belongs to those who can give the next generation reason to hope” (Pierre De Tielhard)
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: UK PERSPECTIVE: PRESSURE POINTS
Finance Bureaucracy: Defra; RPA; BCMS General Health Depression/Mental Health Issues Weather implications Family Tensions Succession/Retirement Legal issues Animal Health/Welfare TB Tenancy Bereavement
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: CONSUMERS PERSPECTIVE (1)
UK produces 62% of its own food requirement down from 75% in 1991 (August 14th)
In 2012 UK food imports were worth £37.5Bn and exports £18.2Bn
The term ‘food security’ relates to ensuring availability of enough food to feed the population. In a Defra survey only 4% of respondents understood the term
Food accounts for 11.3% of household spend; this % is creeping up over recent years
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: CONSUMERS PERSPECTIVE (2)
Food prices have risen 12% in real terms over the last 5 years---growth in food banks
The average household wastes 15% of edible food and drink purchases at average cost of £480 per household
41% of shoppers regard price as the most important factor in product choice
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: ADDITIONAL CHALLENGES IN DEVELOPING WORLD
Poverty Trap Increase in food prices in the UK is a real challenge for some; if
you are living on <2$ a day it is a matter of life and death
Worsening physical environment; Fragility of agriculture; isolation; Bad governance; corruption; fuedalism/authoritariansim; Gender inequality; Education/skill deficit; Trade distortion War, refugees Land ownership/tenure; land rights Credit/microcredit
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: SOME KEY ISSUE FOR ALL OF US (1)
BIO-TECHNOLOGY: THE GM DEBATE
SOURCES OF ENERGY: THE USE OF LAND: BIO FUELS?
INTENSIVE OR EXTENSIVE: ORGANICS?
IS BIG BAD?
THE CARBON FOOTPRINT(UK Agric 7% ghg)
LEVEL OF MEAT EATING?
ANIMAL WELFARE
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: SOME KEY ISSUE FOR ALL OF US (2)
POWER IN THE FOOD CHAIN—FAIR TRADE
TRADE POLICIES; FREE;—POLITICAL IMPOTENCE/CONTROL
FOOD PROVENANCE; DEVELOPING WORLD
MINIMISING WASTE
PUBLIC GOOD IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
THE HIDDEN COSTS OF CHEAP FOOD
CONSUMER RIGHTS & OBLIGATIONS
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: SOME HARVEST THEMES (1)
GRATITUDE—don’t take for granted
CREATION—Responsible stewardship; Sustainable intensification
DEPENDENCY—On creation /elements
SEASONS—a time for everything under heaven
HOPE / EXPECTATION---even in tough times
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: SOME HARVEST THEMES (2)
INTER-DEPENDENCY—Global; Urban/Rural; Food chain
THE WIDER WORLD—Awareness of needs of others
ADVOCACY / ENCOURAGEMENT—understand the issues
THE RESPONSIBLE CONSUMER—Informed decisions
TRUST IN THE PROMISES OF GOD—as long as earth remains……
SPIRITUAL TRUTH—Jesus’ illustrative use of pastoral/rural culture
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FOOD,FARMING & FAITH
THE FARMING YEAR: CLIMAX OF THE HARVEST FESTIVAL
THANK YOU
QUESTIONS & DISCUSSION?