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Paul Kennedy

Preparing for the Twenty-First Century

Chapter 9India And China

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Chapter Highlights

Demographics Essay on Population, Thomas Robert Malthus 1798

Military India & China as major players in the future.

Education Key advancements and major concerns.

Politics Different systems & obsticals, same problems

Industrialization Advancements in past and needs for the future.

Environment Current world concens and how they will grow.

Agriculture Ability to keep up with demand and options.

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The Peoples Republic of ChinaDemographics over-shadow all other

considerations in China dealing with preparations for the 21st Century.

Population in 1993 was 1.135 billion. It is estimated that China’s population will grow

to 1.5 billion by 2025.

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China’s per capita Gross National Product

As of 1987, China’s per capita GNP was only $297 (U.S.)

It is projected that if China’s per capita GNP were to grow to $5000 (U.S.), China’s Economy would be the largest in the world.

Suggestion that if can sustain average annual growth rate of 5% for several decades, China would be assured of increasing per capita GNP

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Demographics of The Peoples Republic of China

China developed an aggressive form of population control.

One child per family policy it is hoped to level off the population at 1.2 billion by

2000 and decline to 750-950 million rigorusly enforced in its early phase By mid-1980s authorities adopted more concilitory

stance due to unpopularity exceedingly unpopular with the Chinese people

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Reasons for Poor Popularity

Firm belief that having more children will increase the work force and productivity this is having a negative effect because the

marginal productivity of each worker is less than the extra needs for each new worker

Fear of not having someone to support them in their old age

Cultural problems associated with birth control.

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Projected Problems

food shortagesover use of energyenvironmental concerns

4th largest contributor to the green house effect

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The Environment

China is already the 4th largest contributor to the green house effect.

As China develops, environmental destruction will only elevate.

Any change in temperature or precipitation could spell disaster for China’s “rain based” agricultural system.

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The Technology Dilemma

Double-edged Sword of Automation Possibility of high unemployment due to

robotics and automation in agricultural and manufacturing businesses

Industrialization attractive for potential of increasing per capita income and reducing population growth

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IndustrializationChina will need new technologies to advance as an

economic power1950s- emphasis was placed on central planning

and heavy industryLate 1970s- economic liberalization policiesBy 1989, 225,000 privately run companies in

coastal provinces employing millions

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China’s Dependency on Agriculture

Estimates are that land in China can sustain between 750 and 950 million people

Although China contains 20% of the world’s population, it owns only 7% of the farm land

Much of that 7% is poor quality farm landSome 80% of Chinese Laborers are somehow involved

in agriculture. If agriculture stagnates, it will drag the entire economy

with it.

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Education in the PRC

The PRC educational system has been marred by sporadic and uneven levels of access at all levels

As a result, there is a very low ratio of skilled to unskilled workers

Almost 220 million adults are illiterate, 75% of them are women

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The Military

Despite nation-wide social distresses, China possesses a formidable military with 2.3 million regular troops, intercontinental ballistic capabilities, and a degree of nuclear ability

This is largely the result of local disputesThis overkill in military production limits

consumer production possibilities

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Politics in the PRC

4th largest trading nation - expected to quadruple its GNP by early next century

Bureaucracy is still strongGovernment very skeptical of communications

revolution and global financingQuestions of retaining national unity to sustain the

drive to prosperity

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Demographic Situation in India

Population size has the most critical implications for India and China.

Second most populous country (853 Million) Together with China, 37% of world population. Estimated population of 1.5 billion by 2025.

Life Expectancy has grown from 32.5 years in 1950 to 58 years in the late 80’s.

Improved health care Improved sanitation General improvement in standard of living.

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Population Problems

India has been unable to convince families to limit their size.

High rate of illiteracy Desire to bear children to enhance family income. Mistrust of officialdom and birth control centers Inefficient and dangerous contraceptive devices. Backlash against Gandhi’s sterilization program.

Much greater cultural and religious diversity - produces different responses.

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Population Problems Cont’d

Fertility rate of 4.3 compared to China’s 2.4Average annual increase of 16.8 million per year.40% of population under 15 years of age.Half of India’s 850M live in poverty.

Landless, unemployed, undernourished, uneducated and ill-sheltered.

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Indian Agriculture

“Green Revolution” 1960+ improvements affected many crops increased yields in irrigated semiarid areas introduction of dwarf wheat

Food supplies risen sharply over past few decades normally has sufficient stocks to meet drought and

famine conditions rice and other foodstuffs sometimes exported

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Indian Agriculture Cont’d

Biotech revolution in agriculture appears to offer promise

as productivity increases of “green revolution” begin to diminish and little suitable additional land available, and threat of pop. Growth eclipsing food output, govt. of India needs to encourage all possible ways to improve agricultural yields

biotechnology, including DNA-type genetic engineering, may prevent feared outcomes (e.g. malnutrition, famine, increased mortality rates, social discontent)

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Indian Agriculture Cont’d

India currently committing large resources to biotechnology research and application from crop breeding, to animal embryo transfers

India possesses many scientists in these fields and experimentation is not as capital-intensive as other high-tech ventures

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The Industrial Situation in India India must move economy into manufacturing and

services to increase the per capita income and generate employment.

Manufacturing sector not growing quick enough. 1950 manufacturing was 10.3% of the GDP. 1978/79 manufacturing was 15.8% of the GDP. 1989 manufacturing was a mere 16.1% of the GDP

compared to Korea’s 31.6% of GDP.

India needs foreign technology, expertise and goods and services, BUT this worsens the account deficit.

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Industrial Situation Cont’d

India created own industrial revolution encouraged by leaders to strengthen defense base,

reduce dependence upon foreign manufacturing, and enhance national income

like Latin American nations, chose to replace imports with its own heavy industrial products; iron, steel, cement, locomotives, automobiles, shipbuilding, defense-related production, engineering, and machine tools all supported by the state

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Industrial Situation Cont’dTransportation, mining, and utilities were taken into

public sectorOthers given subsidies , very high tariff protection, and

government ordersResult: emergence of numerous publicly owned

corporate giants in steel, aeronautics, engineering, and petrochemicals

Where industrialization was not possible by internal means, foreign aid was encouraged, for example, Soviet help in building steel plants

In this was, India planned to become an industrial giant

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Automation

India’s move into area of robotics modernization led to entrepreneurs, electronics firms,

and other businesses possessing technical know-how, financial capacity, and official support to adopt automated production

currently has machine-tool industry which is foundation for any serious move into robotics

many trained mathematicians and engineers eager to emulate East Asia’s venture into higher

technologies

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Automation cont’d

Future: if better infrastructure is in place and quality control assured, India looks to be a medium-sized player in robotics

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India’s Environmental problems:

Industrialization and overpopulation will have serious consequences for India’s natural environment.

India is the 5th largest contributor of greenhouse gases. 50% of land subject to ecological degradation. 60% deforestation around New Delhi in last 10 years.

India’s dilemma: The only way to decrease poverty is to increase industrialization, which could affect the environment even further.

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Education Concerns for India

Adult literacy only 43% 50% males are literate 25%females

200 million illiterate adults Rural India has no traditional emphasis on education. Socioeconomic obstacles. Disproportionate spending on education. - More needs to be

spent on primary and secondary where the majority of the population would benefit.

Difficulty in allocating 3 to 4% of GDP.

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Military Influences

Nuclear proliferation between India and neighboring China and Pakistan.

Ambition to be a regional superpower.Allocation of resources to military spending rather

than to export led growth. Finances, scientific expertise, engineering, research and

development are all examples of resources devoted to military applications.

Defense is a non-productive investment.

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The Political Dilemma for IndiaThe future for India will be heavily affected by the

quality of political leadership.Does India possess the national unity and purpose to

meet the challenges of a changing global environment?• 25 distinct ethnic groups.

• Stratified caste system

• Enormous gaps in the distribution of wealth.

• Entrenched trade unions

• Hindu, Muslim and Sikh religions

• Excessive factionalism in party politics

• Political corruption and gov’t favoritism.

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ConclusionOutcomes For India and China

Effects of the Malthusian trap Poverty Malnutrition

Not Just A India/China Problem “The only logical solution remaining,…is for the

developed world to try to apply its capital, technology, and brainpower to help these two giant populations escape from poverty without harm to themselves and the planet…”p.192

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THE END