1

Pacific Command Operation Science and Technology Conference

28 August 2014

David M ShanahanDeputy Dean of Academicsshanahand@apcss.org

2

Mission

Building capacities and communities of interest

by

Educating, Connecting, and Empowering security practitioners

to

Advance Asia-Pacific security

Change the

World !

2

3

APCSS Delivers Value

Curriculum that teaches critical thinking--the foundation to deal with whatever challenges, threats and opportunities the future may bring

Courses where security practitioners practice multilateral, whole-of-society collaboration--case studies and projects with real-world application

Foundations of fellowship that endure--after 18+ years in operation, 60% of APCSS alumni are still in touch

APCSS builds capacity and communities of interest to advance security in the critical Asia-Pacific region

(

4

• APCSS receives: – Direction from U.S. Pacific

Command– Policy guidance from the

Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy

– Funding via the Defense Security Cooperation Agency

Established in 1995, APCSS is one of five U.S. Department of Defense Regional Centers.

•George C Marshall Center for European Sec Studies•William Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies •Africa Center for Security Studies •Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies

4

5

Core Curriculum

• Advanced Security Cooperation Course (ASC) • Comprehensive Crisis Management Course (CCM)• Comprehensive Security Responses to Terrorism

Course (CSRT)• Transnational Security Cooperation Course (TSC)• Asia-Pacific Orientation Course (APOC)• Senior Asia-Pacific Orientation Course (SEAPOC)

6

FY14 Workshops• Regional Workshops

– Exploiting the Crime-Terror Nexus—Countering Violent Extremism through Multi-sectoral Information and Intelligence Sharing: February 2014 Manila Philippines

– U.S.- China: Building Strategic Trust: Nov 2013 Beijing China – Regional Security Governance & Architecture in the Pacific Islands Region: Priorities

for a Resilient Future Aug 2014 Port Vila Vanuatu – Myanmar Security Sector Development (SSD): Aug 2014 Naypyitaw Myanmar – Maritime Resource Management : Gulf of Thailand Initiative: Aug 2014 Singapore

• Hawaii Workshops – US-JA-INDIA Tri-Lat – HADR Cooperation : May 2014 – Australia and New Zealand Defense Force Command and Staff College-APCSS Joint

Seminar on Global Security Issues Workshops (2 separate events) Nov 2013

(DELIBERATIVE DOCUMENT: For discussion purposes only.Draft working papers. Do not release under FOIA) FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

7

Proposed FY15 Workshops

“Energy Security” (China/NEA)

“Multilat Command & Staff College Workshop”

“Building National Biosecurity Strategies”

(Manila RP)(SEA & CSRT focus)

“Vietnam Bilat with Ho Chi Minh

Academy”

“Managing Security Implications of Labor

Mobility” (location TBD)

“Building Collaboration in South Asia Disaster

Risk Reduction”(Sri Lanka)

(India/SA & CCM focus)

“Security Sector Development”

(SSD/Fiji)

“Security Sector Development” (SSD/Burma)

Ensuring Security in a Changing

Arctic ”

OSD-Directed: “Defense Strategies Beyond White

Papers” (OSD/China)

8

South Asia

Bangladesh 267* (26)

Bhutan 37* (5)

India 275* (26)

Maldives 98* (16)

Nepal 273* (26)

Sri Lanka 258* (26)

South East Asia

Brunei 63 (8)

Cambodia 125* (16)

Indonesia 248* (25)

Laos 106* (16)

Malaysia 281* (26)

Myanmar 8 (12)

Papua New Guinea 110* (9)

Philippines 304* (25)

Singapore 110* (11)

Thailand 308* (26)

Timor-Leste 48* (6)

Vietnam 149* (21)

Over 100 Locations … 7 International Organizations … 56 Alumni Associations*

53 Other Locations184 (65) 8,879 Alumni

FY 14 Fellow Projection in ( )

“Seam “Countries

Afghanistan 42* (13)

Canada 92* (17)

Chile 55* (9)

Comoros 20* (5)

Madagascar 38*

Mauritius 46* (5)

Pakistan 240* (25)

Peru 15* (9)

United States 2559*

APCSS Alumni Organizations

ASEAN 7 (7)

Asian Dev. Bank 2 (2)

Pacific Island Forum 2 (0)

United Nations 5 (12)

Int. Cmte of Red Cross 0 (4)

World Bank 0 (7)

Int. Maritime4 Org. 0 (4)

North East Asia

China 87* (21)

Hong Kong 15* (12)

Japan 95* (18)

Mongolia 187* (21)

Republic of Korea 167* (25)

Russia 106* (10)

Taiwan 102* (14)

Oceania

American Samoa 23* (5)

Australia 199* (25)

Cook Islands 20* (5)

Fiji 103* (13)

French Republic 18 (4)

Guam 23* (2)

Kiribati 32 (4)

Marshall Islands 37* (5)

Micronesia 81* (10)

Nauru 11 (5)

New Zealand 152* (11)

Niue Island 8 (4)

North Mariana Islands 13

Palau 30* (10)

Saipan 11 (1)

Samoa 20* (5)

Solomon Islands 25* (5)

Tonga 61* (9)

Tuvalu 25* (5)

Vanuatu 29* (5)

9

Substantive Outcomes

United StatesSOCPAC MEOPT Concept

MongoliaConstitutional Framework

for National Security

2009 20112010 2012 2013 2014

Timor-LesteNational Security Policy

New ZealandEarthquake Response

NepalUNDP Annual Work Plan

for Earthquake Prep

NepalMaoist Integration in Army

Papua New GuineaNational Security Policy

WorkshopFellows ProjectFellows Project/ Workshop CombinationOtherBangladesh

CT Framework Strategy

PhilippinesNational Security Policy

MaldivesNational Security Framework

PhilippinesBayanihan Peace Plan &

CT Strategy

MongoliaNational Security Framework

30 June 2014

IndonesiaDraft National Security Law

10

Country Year Begun Workshop / Fellows Project Status

Philippines 2010 Bayanihan Internal Peace and Security Plan & CT Strategy, merging kinetic & socio-econ responses

Implemented by President

Nepal 2013 Completed DDR program for Maoist integration in Army Implemented

Papua New Guinea

2013 Developed first ever National Security Policy Approved by Parliament; implementation underway

Mongolia 2010 Legislated updates to Constitutional Framework supporting National Security

Passed in parliament

Philippines 2009 National Security Policy Finalized

Timor-Leste 2009 National Security Policy Finalized

Indonesia 2011 Updated National Security Law In parliamentary committee

Mongolia 2012 New Prioritized National Security Framework Approved by President

Maldives 2009 & 2010, with DIRI

National Security Framework, including new National Security Council

Stand Up of new NSC underway

Bangladesh 2009, with DIRI CT Framework Strategy, aligned with SAARC Final Implementation underway

New Zealand 2010 NZ Police response following Christchurch earthquake Effectively managed broad, international dimensions

Nepal 2014 Earthquake preparedness program In UNDP Annual Work Plan; being implemented

United States 2013 Activation of SOCPAC/SOCOM Multinational Engagement Operational Planning Team (MEOPT) engagement options

Pending funding; SOCPAC implemented modified form

APCSS Prioritized Outcomes & Impacts (as of 30 June 2014)

11

Pre Conference Survey

12

Pre-Conference Survey 1. I think the area of technology that will have the most profound

effect on regional nations’ comprehensive security (social, economic, political as well as diplomatic and military security) in the mid-term future (5-15 years) is:

Energy 47%Information 32%Climate Adaptation and Resilience 13%Robotics 5%Biogenetics 3% Nano-scale Engineering 0%

52% 43% NA 2% 1% 1%

13

Pre-Conference Survey 2. What policy/investment approach should governments prioritize in

order to most effectively contend with the security effects of climate change?

• Adaptation strategies aimed to mitigate climate change effects

• Minimize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations through emissions control and improved agricultural and forestry practices

• Geo-engineering strategies to change atmospheric content

• Adopt a wait and see approachowing to inconclusive nature of climate science

35%

28%

10%

27%

58%

16%

3%

24%

POST 2013

14

Pre-Conference Survey 3. What S&T program approach represents the most fruitful opportunity to address climate change and strengthen relationships in the Asia Pacific?

35%

28%

10%

27%

37%

29%

34%

• Hold multilateral conferences and workshops to disseminate new knowledge on the impacts of climate change and adaptation to them.

• Conduct bilateral technology demonstration projects for resilience and adaptation techniques.

• Establish international R&D centers for science and policy to address climate related security problems shared by Asia Pacific nations.

15

Pre-Conference Survey 4. Global Energy Security will be best ensured by policy

approaches that emphasize :

National strategies for energy Independence

Cooperative strategies and mechanisms ensuring open market access for all energy recourses

Conservation

Nations securing source supplier allocation commitments

24%

61%

17%

0%

49%

31%

17%

0%

POST 2013

16

Pre-Conference Survey 5. The best opportunity for cooperation in enhanced

Energy Security in the Asia Pacific is: :

• Joint Exploration for Oil and Natural Gas

• Joint Research on Renewable Energy

• Joint Efforts on reducing demand

• A collaborative Market approach to Energy Security

5%

37%

16%

42%

17

Pre-Conference Survey 6. The best role (in its own interest of fostering a viable

global cyber market) for the technology community is to:Develop “open” systems that make both faults and fixes transparent to all

Work with regional policy makers in gaining political agreements on systemic security measures

Engage its member organizations and enterprises in an international educational program designed to create awareness of, and a desire to act on the need for, common cyber security Work on cyber forensic tools and system changes aimed at real time discovery and attribution of cyber attacks

5%

21%

18%

55%

18

Pre-Conference Survey 7. To assist in building long-term partner nation capacity to contribute to

regional security, the technology community should help regional nations focus on:• Traditional security related technologies (e.g. C2/ISR, cyber and kenetic)

• Move rapidly from their current levels of technology to “game changing”

• Technologies beginning to be deployed elsewhere (leap-frogging)

• Dual use technologies that can be used both in traditional political/military security but also to support economic and social development (e.g. Big Data, 3D printing, robotics)

• Acquiring technologies that incrementally improve their capacities

11%

11%

18%

37%

24%

19

Pre-Conference Survey 8. What approach to water security hold the most potential for

effectively addressing A-P water security Issues over the next 5-10 years :

• Conservation efforts and movement from water intensive agricultural crops and techniques

• Increased water supply thru technology enabled cheap desalinization

• Bilateral and Multilateral water sharing agreements

21%

63%

16%

20

Pre-Conference Survey 6. Security of the maritime economic zones and commons is

most effectively maintained through strengthening:

Maritime forces that can monitor and 17.1% unilaterally protect national areas of interest

The web of maritime law, convention, 11.0% and accepted practice

Cooperative processes and exercises that 72.0%build maritime relationships among regionaland sub-regional partners enabling collective effort

POST 2013

21

Pre-Conference Survey 7. Maritime security of the United States in the Asia Pacific will

be best advanced by technological investments in:

Maritime domain awareness 61%

Asymmetric deterrents to conventional 38%platforms of others

Conventional commercial and military 1%shipbuilding

POST 2013

22

23Watterson, Bill. “Calvin and Hobbes: Cartoon Universal Press Syndicate 1993